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JIB Ratings

gerry said:
I think a thing that would be very interesting is since this is sunday if every punter on here said a simple yes or no if they won yesterday on the horses .
As that bit of honest information would help every one where its all going on the forums not apoint of seeing who done well or not its a percentage feel of why things need be tighter for everyone and many bets do they have on a average saturday . As i think thats where most if not all go wrong looking at things for to many races just a thought, take yesterday i had one bet to place and got beat.
But in the context of saturday i did have 5 bets in the day mainly fun bets but still lost .
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This was my day yesterday. gerry gerry

Day closed and the lessons are banked. Here's where it lands, honestly:


Day ≈ +10.55pt at our advised/taken prices. The Windsor evening was a poor 1‑from‑5 on a thin‑edge, low‑grade card; the main card carried the day.
 
Unfortunately Saturday is most peoples day off & so they have more time & probably more relaxed, therefore having more fun bets.
I follow my systems on HRB & have lots of horses in my tracker & saturdays, festivals & bank holidays will always throw up more opportunity, there is also always the dreaded FOMO I will remember missing out on Almeraq at 25/1 last saturday longer than my 2 winning selections at Ascot last week
 
I think it makes massive difference as all the small stables are trying to find a race to get winner placed but saturdays near impossible to find one as Larry Larry says saturday is fun day so more fun bets i would imagine on here a lot of guys loss all there hard worked betting money they had gained midweek on a saturday alone then feel its start again.
Maybe this will make people relize less on saturday is the trick but not easy to do.
 
gerry gerry

There is an argument in favour of Saturdays. If one takes the view that higher class races run more often to form than lower class races, then of course one is more likely to find them on Saturdays (and at the mid week festival meetings) than on a typical weekday.

On the one hand, my impression is that classier horses seem more reliable, but on the other better class races often have big fields, which presents problems. Overall, I prefer higher class races because for an essential element of my approach - rating ability - they often allow more separation than one finds in smaller fields. Take a race like the 7.25 Lingfield last evening. With the rating method I use, the three top were 46, 47 and 50. I do not see such small differences as material and would certainly not bet just because one was 3 ahead of another on that rating. By contrast, the far classier sprint handicap at Newcastle had a range from 39 to 600 and the ratings afford more scope for distinctions.
 
Yes i would not argue the better class the better form JennyK JennyK but as you said big massive fields do make it bit of lottery a lot of time to.
And i think the prof would be in people saying if they win or loss saturdays most weeks and i would believe they loss.
 
I had Believeitadyoucan so was an expectant day however it petered out Jo Langley would have been a bet but odds on Lazzaz 2nd Synigism 3rd Jujibella 2nd Revelio 2nd nightmare
 
03/07 Don 3.10 5F C3 7r

In my quest to make the selection process easier I have been taking liberties with this and the results show that, back to basics from now on.

Top rated here is Paddys Dream, last 3 races he has raced in 88, 84 & 92 whilst recording improving RPR figures of 83, 88 & 89.Admitedly there is a mixture of AW form in there but today he is dropping down to 78 so I think there is a bit of intent there coinciding with a dropping OR. The physical weight carried is of a concern, this is offset slightly by the 3lb claimer
 
Rip 7.40

Reigning Profit recorded 73, 2 runs ago which he improved to 80 LTO in a class 83. Dropped back to 73 today is top rated with all his wins coming over 5F returning within 15 days to the track
 
Friday 10/07 Newm 4.45

Top rated for me is Rosario, I think his last race was a potential target race, dropping in JIB class but a slow start and getting hampered late on did for him. Similar level in this race and hopefully a good pace to aim at should run a decent race. Fits in nicely with my trends for the race and the 7-1 currently on offer looks fair.
 
trecelyn said:
Not having the best of times lately, spent friday night and saturday morning on the days racecards only to find nothing qualified. Onto monday at Windsor.

7.00 The method does not normaly highlight low weighted horse so when they do I tend to take notice. Divine Libra could go off at a very nice price given its recent form, 16-1 is way overpriced

8.00 Greek Order is slowly coming back to form, not sure if Monday is the plan but given its course form it could well be

I see one of my horses to follow Antipodes is 9-1 for John Smiths, hoping for a bit better than that but have had a little dabble
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Right stable, wrong horse, sulked, missed the best price, sulked some some more and missed the winner completely, what a bell end I have been today. Could not find a selection on rest of the days racing with any degree of confidence.

Dipped into a class 4 for monday at Windsor

7.50 Kalokalo improving JIB and RPR figures put him ahead of this field. The only reservation I have is the quick turn around, you never quite know how much a recent race has taken out of a horse and with a quick reappearance there is little time for recovery.
 
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