Jackform
Gelding
Enjoying discussing racing I tried a blog some time ago and it went down like a lead balloon. Note sure whether it was the content or posted in the wrong place. Perhaps somebody could enlighten me, or at least put me out of my misery .
Just call me Jack (in fact you can call me what you like, except don't call me late-for-dinner), just an elderly gent keen on horse racing as a hobby, fascinating in its complexity and a real mental challenge day-to-day, with the possibility of making it a full time profession if you can learn to find winners and even more important find them at the right odds to bet on.
I have been trying for 68 years now and I'm getting there slowly (could be too late for me).
This Holy Grail racing safari has reached this point (Safari, so good! As they say, and by the way I am not averse to any experienced big game hunters joining in to lend a hand; brain really):
An SOS plan is required to tackle the process - Selection, Odds & Staking (the only facts that really matters is the percentage strike-rate and the odds obtained on winners)
Selection
Consider any race (more than 12 runners though and it becomes unwieldy and not only that the book margin can be high) where more than three quarters of the field are seen to have a rating such as RPR. Then note all the runners in the short odds half of the market but not in the betting forecast at longer than 10-1. The most popular tip in a race starred* for identification (if nothing else it should highlight how difficult it is to beat the book at their own game; betting to what is seen as an advantage that is).
Odds
Backing every runner in a race gives a 100% chance of selecting the winner. Therefore, backing one runner, or several, in race gives a percentage chance of the whole depending on their ability. I will attempt to assess the individual chance of selections and calculate their fractional odds accordingly. This then will be my 'fair' price and just below the shortest odds to strike a wager at.
Staking
You need a bankroll or at least a commitment, which should be as much as you can readily afford to lose, although not too little as betting in this manner for small amounts is largely a waste of time and effort (the bankroll of course may be theoretical as part of a paper trading exercise, and in any case you don't need to set a bank aside but rather to commit to being prepared to lose a certain amount over a period of time).
All qualifying selections to be backed, up to a maximum of 3 in a race, to obtain a 'graduated 1% return of the bankroll' (by heck that's different), meaning that the aim is to win 1% of the bank on every race less stakes, but only so far as an overall profit is attainable. Results will be shown to Starting Price as being the most auditable return, even though it might have been possible to take a better price from the book or exchanges.
(Amended Friday, Jan 12 07) To start with identify an amount of money you are prepared to risk betting. Then the guiding principle remains the same; the aim being to win a return of 1% of the bankroll on each race. Achieved by dividing the odds calculated for any selection into the amount that represents 1% of the bankroll (Note: We are staking to the odds we believe any selection merits and not the betting forecast or the actual market). No bet on any single selection at less than 6/4 or where the market is shorter than the odds calculated. This means that if the odds calculated are correct the return will be 1% of the bankroll less monies staked and if the odds on a winning selection are greater than calculated the return on the race will be greater than 1%. (I think I have beaten that to death now and even I understand it).
Under consideration is a ploy to have a second type of wager in a race where any qualifying popular tip is backed in a straight forecast with any other qualifying selection, up to a maximum of 3 bets, to a 1% stake on each (have to see how it goes).
I have been using my own tissue to compare with market odds since 1979. A tissue is just the opinion of the compiler and has no other merit than that, no different than a private handicap but expressed as prices. You can either compile your own or use one of the commercial services. I tend to use RPR these days as it is free, incorporates foreign form and seems to be as good as any.
I only consider non-hcaps (actually hcaps instead nowadays as the OR provides a par for each race) with not too many runners and those runners where the RPR tissue price is no greater than 10/1 (outside that I don't believe anybody can compile accurate prices) (nowadys I mainly keep to the market expected range). Several runners can be backed if the odds are viable, coupled to obtain a return of 100 points. Selections are supported at their tissue odds and not market odds.
The best thing to do is cherry-pick a good example the 2.10 Navan today:
RPR
1 140 11/2 15pts SP 3/1 No bet
2 138 8/1 11pts SP 11/2 No bet
3 143 4/1 20pts SP 13/2 Bet lost = -20 pts Justpourit
4 151 7/4 36pts SP 11/8 No bet
5 133 50/1 (not considered over 10/1)
6 140 11/2 15pts SP 10/1 Bet Won = Return 165 pts Young Desperado
That's how I currently employ RPR as a tissue using a simple arithmetical calculation changing the ratings into percentages, then into fractional odds and finally the points to return 100. I should add that if the points/price of the viable selections total more than about 80 points that race is eliminated as a betting
medium.
Nearly forgot, there is a problem with this system if not more than about three-quarters of the field have a rating as it skews the odds.
Just call me Jack (in fact you can call me what you like, except don't call me late-for-dinner), just an elderly gent keen on horse racing as a hobby, fascinating in its complexity and a real mental challenge day-to-day, with the possibility of making it a full time profession if you can learn to find winners and even more important find them at the right odds to bet on.
I have been trying for 68 years now and I'm getting there slowly (could be too late for me).
This Holy Grail racing safari has reached this point (Safari, so good! As they say, and by the way I am not averse to any experienced big game hunters joining in to lend a hand; brain really):
An SOS plan is required to tackle the process - Selection, Odds & Staking (the only facts that really matters is the percentage strike-rate and the odds obtained on winners)
Selection
Consider any race (more than 12 runners though and it becomes unwieldy and not only that the book margin can be high) where more than three quarters of the field are seen to have a rating such as RPR. Then note all the runners in the short odds half of the market but not in the betting forecast at longer than 10-1. The most popular tip in a race starred* for identification (if nothing else it should highlight how difficult it is to beat the book at their own game; betting to what is seen as an advantage that is).
Odds
Backing every runner in a race gives a 100% chance of selecting the winner. Therefore, backing one runner, or several, in race gives a percentage chance of the whole depending on their ability. I will attempt to assess the individual chance of selections and calculate their fractional odds accordingly. This then will be my 'fair' price and just below the shortest odds to strike a wager at.
Staking
You need a bankroll or at least a commitment, which should be as much as you can readily afford to lose, although not too little as betting in this manner for small amounts is largely a waste of time and effort (the bankroll of course may be theoretical as part of a paper trading exercise, and in any case you don't need to set a bank aside but rather to commit to being prepared to lose a certain amount over a period of time).
All qualifying selections to be backed, up to a maximum of 3 in a race, to obtain a 'graduated 1% return of the bankroll' (by heck that's different), meaning that the aim is to win 1% of the bank on every race less stakes, but only so far as an overall profit is attainable. Results will be shown to Starting Price as being the most auditable return, even though it might have been possible to take a better price from the book or exchanges.
(Amended Friday, Jan 12 07) To start with identify an amount of money you are prepared to risk betting. Then the guiding principle remains the same; the aim being to win a return of 1% of the bankroll on each race. Achieved by dividing the odds calculated for any selection into the amount that represents 1% of the bankroll (Note: We are staking to the odds we believe any selection merits and not the betting forecast or the actual market). No bet on any single selection at less than 6/4 or where the market is shorter than the odds calculated. This means that if the odds calculated are correct the return will be 1% of the bankroll less monies staked and if the odds on a winning selection are greater than calculated the return on the race will be greater than 1%. (I think I have beaten that to death now and even I understand it).
Under consideration is a ploy to have a second type of wager in a race where any qualifying popular tip is backed in a straight forecast with any other qualifying selection, up to a maximum of 3 bets, to a 1% stake on each (have to see how it goes).
I have been using my own tissue to compare with market odds since 1979. A tissue is just the opinion of the compiler and has no other merit than that, no different than a private handicap but expressed as prices. You can either compile your own or use one of the commercial services. I tend to use RPR these days as it is free, incorporates foreign form and seems to be as good as any.
I only consider non-hcaps (actually hcaps instead nowadays as the OR provides a par for each race) with not too many runners and those runners where the RPR tissue price is no greater than 10/1 (outside that I don't believe anybody can compile accurate prices) (nowadys I mainly keep to the market expected range). Several runners can be backed if the odds are viable, coupled to obtain a return of 100 points. Selections are supported at their tissue odds and not market odds.
The best thing to do is cherry-pick a good example the 2.10 Navan today:
RPR
1 140 11/2 15pts SP 3/1 No bet
2 138 8/1 11pts SP 11/2 No bet
3 143 4/1 20pts SP 13/2 Bet lost = -20 pts Justpourit
4 151 7/4 36pts SP 11/8 No bet
5 133 50/1 (not considered over 10/1)
6 140 11/2 15pts SP 10/1 Bet Won = Return 165 pts Young Desperado
That's how I currently employ RPR as a tissue using a simple arithmetical calculation changing the ratings into percentages, then into fractional odds and finally the points to return 100. I should add that if the points/price of the viable selections total more than about 80 points that race is eliminated as a betting
medium.
Nearly forgot, there is a problem with this system if not more than about three-quarters of the field have a rating as it skews the odds.