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Jack's blog attempt

I think the extract from Jackform Jackform , assumes that the person placing these bets has a very accurate idea of the True Odds. So if he were 100 % accurate with his tissue price then a Even Money probability would win 50% of the time. Of course he would need to back the True Even Money Pribabilty at odds greater than that, to make a profit.

Likewise if an individual could accurately assess the True Odds about his selection that his selection had a True probability of 9/1 then his horse wins 10% of the time. Again he would need to obtain odds greater than 9/1 to make. Profit

Rob Morris was very good at Tissue Prices and he would back anything that was up to 9/2 on his Tissue, providing that the horse was offered at odds greater than his Tissue Price. He did not back horses who he estimated had a probability greater than 9/2 as he knew that he would have to sustain longer losing runs ie he may have a horse priced up at 9/1 that was offered at 15/1. But of course even with a True Probability of 9/1 he would only win 10% of the time.

mick mick has been posting all his bets 48 hrs in advance in The Blog , for a few years now and the odds Taken. Again he is betting to odds that are being offered greater than his estimate of the odds.
 
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tacker said:
Really mick mick ? you would have the same amount on a 1/2 shot as you would a 50/1 shot?
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mick mick is unlikely to place a bet in a 1/2 shot. I do know that recently he Backed a horse at 20/1 after the 48 Dec stage (Posted on Blog) and then Topped up at 22/1 and 25/1.

Again it would have been mick mick being able to know from experience when to do this and not a regimented rule that he would always follow.

There is also the psychological aspect of wagering and Nerves of steel are called for and mick mick has proved that he has this quality in Abundance

Most of these author (S) that Jackform Jackform is quoting extracts from have never proven in advance how successful their strategies are. mick mick has (y)
 
I am happy to confirm that mick mick has been posting all his bets here for some years now, and has demonstrated how he makes regular profits, including when he has had a larger than usual stake when he is going with a drifter.
Surely if you think that you have found something that Mr average punter has missed then you should have the confidence to back your judgement, especially if you have many years results to confirm that you have an edge.
 
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Have to say I would feel the same Samacas Samacas ! I think the key to staking is to bet at whatever level is most comfortable for you without it affecting your judgement- for some people a bet of £500 would not affect them but it would put others in A&E at the local hospital !
 
dave58 said:
Don't know about mick mick, but I certainly do
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Everybody will bet in different stakes but people i know couldn't bring themselves to put a tenner on a 1/2 shot to win a fiver having bet to win £500 on their previous bet or vice versa, obviously the numbers jack uses here are exaggerated simply to make a point and he goes on to explain his logic further.
 
Chesham said:
mick mick is unlikely to place a bet in a 1/2 shot. I do know that recently he Backed a horse at 20/1 after the 48 Dec stage (Posted on Blog) and then Topped up at 22/1 and 25/1.

Again it would have been mick mick being able to know from experience when to do this and not a regimented rule that he would always follow.

There is also the psychological aspect of wagering and Nerves of steel are called for and mick mick has proved that he has this quality in Abundance

Most of these author (S) that Jackform Jackform is quoting extracts from have never proven in advance how successful their strategies are. mick mick has (y)
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Exactly! i'm sure mick wouldn't bother with shorties he much prefers the big odds winners.
 
Samacas said:
I probably wouldn't back a 1/2 shot but if I put less on a bigger price one it would kill the enjoyment of a big price winner and defeat the object of picking it in the first place
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Sounds logical Samacas Samacas but i suspect the average punter who nicks a score with a £40 @ 1/2 might be tempted to reduce his 50/1 bet to a £10 ew to return a possible £620 but it might be the case that people on forums aren't average punters.
 
tacker said:
Sounds logical Samacas Samacas but i suspect the average punter who nicks a score with a £40 @ 1/2 might be tempted to reduce his 50/1 bet to a £10 ew to return a possible £620 but it might be the case that people on forums aren't average punters.
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More likely that many on forums are average punters but like everywhere 20% of the members contribute most and have most winners etc - on the staking I did test the level profit staking on some of my past bets and came out better on level stakes - each to their own of course. Bizarrely if I bet on course and see something I like in the paddock that really stands out (and I mean stands out on its own from the field) and is high odds then I would actually increase my stake - but then I am a greedy bastard :)
 
tacker said:
Really mick mick ? you would have the same amount on a 1/2 shot as you would a 50/1 shot?
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I would not be backing a 1/2 shot but variable staking ensures that your biggest losing bets are on your shortest priced selections so i could counter by asking where is the sense in this.? I believe that whenever possible the best way to test ideas is against my past actual bets and Re staking i have done so on several occasions over the years with the audits always showing that level staking continues to be the best use of my capital.

Shorter priced picks lose less often so there will be a cosmetic attraction for some backers and this i can understand and appreciate, but imo this is about risk mentality which is a different topic. When we come to actually risking our money (as opposed to talking theory) then everyone finds there best use and comfort zones and all should be respected something which imo the author of the copied article ? omitted to do hence some of the above member responses.

Have i placed a full unit stake on a 50/1 ? actually yes, did i collect no but this would not prevent me from doing so again because over a sequence of same i would anticipate a win which paid for the losers and what fell out the bottom would be my earn from the experience.
 
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mick said:
I would not be backing a 1/2 shot but variable staking ensures that your biggest losing bets are on your shortest priced selections so i could counter by asking where is the sense in this.? I believe that whenever possible the best way to test ideas is against my past actual bets and Re staking i have done so on several occasions over the years with the audits always showing that level staking continues to be the best use of my capital.

Shorter priced picks lose less often so there will be a cosmetic attraction for some backers and this i can understand and appreciate, but imo this is about risk mentality which is a different topic. When we come to actually risking our money (as opposed to talking theory) then everyone finds there best use and comfort zones and all should be respected something which imo the author of the copied article ? omitted to do hence some of the above member responses.

Have i placed a full unit stake on a 50/1 ? actually yes, did i collect no but this would not prevent me from doing so again because over a sequence of same i would anticipate a win which paid for the losers and what fell out the bottom would be my earn from the experience.
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Hi mick mick You confirm my opinion that you would be betting 1/2 and i fully get that but Jackform Jackform did use those numbers to make a point or preamble so he could then presume "nobody" would bet like that but you then described yourself as a "nobody" along with dave58 dave58 who uses systems rather than the hard work approach you use.
 
tacker said:
Exactly! i'm sure mick wouldn't bother with shorties he much prefers the big odds winners.
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I have a min of 9/4 but in the race type i work this situation seldom arises. Having said this i can certainly see the sense in betting at 7/4 if you feel the animal is a true 5/4 chance. The bottom line for us all is long term profit and to those backers who make theirs from playing at the front of the market i say great and well done. The truth of it being that when i start working a race i never go looking for a bigger priced selection its more a case of them finding me, which is perhaps the best way.?
 
tacker said:
Hi mick mick You confirm my opinion that you would be betting 1/2 and i fully get that but Jackform Jackform did use those numbers to make a point or preamble so he could then presume "nobody" would bet like that but you then described yourself as a "nobody" along with dave58 dave58 who uses systems rather than the hard work approach you use.
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Hi T tacker i am not sure i get your point.? Re dave58 dave58 lots of hard work will be a need for himself in order to create the winning systems he uses.
 
mick said:
Hi T tacker i am not sure i get your point.? Re dave58 dave58 lots of hard work will be a need for himself in order to create the winning systems he uses.
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Well wouldn't it be the case that if you bet whatever the system says rather than having rules like minimal 9/4 there is a different approach between the two.
 
tacker said:
Well wouldn't it be the case that if you bet whatever the system says rather than having rules like minimal 9/4 there is a different approach between the two.
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Well you would need to ask dave58 dave58 but to my mind he has already answered this via his above post, as have i and other members. When we post on forums its always preferable to suggest rather than to tell or assume.?
 
Systems do push you into backing what the system says back - otherwise what is the point of creating a system

Back to staking - Variable stakes determined by odds or chances

backing more than two is possible but rarely worth the effort unless big stakes are employed - but 5 or 2 the the idea is the same

If you have 2 or ? candidates left after the system or the profiling process is completed - simply make those left the entire field and reduced your Value to a percentage of the whole rating - set yours required odds -and do same with your stake and split it accordingly the better rating will attract a larger stake but all are backed ( if the odds are there ) - its a great way of seeing if your ideas are actually working and at the say same you are ignoring the herd , you might coincide with the market but that's going to happen at least 30% of the time - but you have not let the market influence your decision.

The only draw back with this with the larger number of potential runners you run the risk of not getting your required odds
 
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