Mtoto:
You will find To-Agori-Mou was first mentioned when VDW was talking about ratings. So I did find it strange when he mentions the horse is in article 47 when he says about horses that have never won.
Why choose this race as an example ? 19 runners and only one hadn't won a race, 13 of these horses had won at least two races. He then has To-Agori-Mou rated 2nd best using his rating in front of at least 9 horses with higher ability ratings. So when I read the original article when VDW is talking about his rating and after he has stated class and form are the dominate factors would those two elements really be ignored when formulating the rating?
In the same post you talk about, he ironically precedes line with" Several times I have expressed the view that ratings should be looked upon as a guide only and
not the ultimate means of selection."
As far as I know, you are using them as this, you use the speed ratings to select your probables.
The only clear reason I can see that it is mentioned in letter 45, is maybe a pointer to how he actually creates his own ratings,the suggestion that class and form are dominant is the clue to it,but I have not spent a lot of time trying find, although my belief is,they may be a set numbers derived and added to a speed rating or form rating, hence why would Mattaboy be top on his rating?
Mtoto:
You will find the first time VDW mentions ability ( in letter 19) it is based on a speed figure, as you know this was well before SIAO.
Another post about compiling lists, which was touch upon later in more detail,no suggestion at all that it is an ability rating,speed ratings as you know are class biased, his quip about which was the better rating Redcar or Epsom tells us this,but I have compiled my own,so know full well they factor in a class bias, so choosing horses that have reach a particular rating weeds out the horses who have ran at the poorer tracks and class,a sound basis for separating the wheat from the chaff, but it is also a pointer to how he appraises going back through their earlier form
Mtoto:
You say this as if there can only be one reason and it is plain to see. I have to say I have never seen on any forum a reason to make Beacon Light a none/out of form horse. The most common reason offered is the drop in s/f and/or class in his last race but that doesn't hold up with other examples.
I am sorry,but the answer is plainly obvious, you will never see it on a forum, I remember reading a post between yourself and one of the prolific posters,he is clearly telling you that it was the way that VDW eliminated horses without giving the game away, I am not sure you understand the pain and effort that has been put in,in order to understand VDW,spending hours unravelling it, frustration a plenty, just freely offering up on a forum just undoes all the effort that others would not have to go through.
I have given a leg up to many, but you have to do some of the legwork yourself,otherwise it is completely pointless journey.
Mtoto:
All I can say to that is I have given you what I consider to be logical reasons, so if you are sure I'm wrong why can't you give yours?
I appreciate you explaining your reasoning behind it all.
It is a complex puzzle to unravel, I have previously mentioned that most people are reading from the surface, it is below surface that you have to scratch, it is easily identifiable facts that need to be brought together and viewed,it is time consuming,the hard work part I suppose, but I will not be spreading it all over a forum, I have no problem giving others a nudge, you know that, what you do with it after is upto you.
