• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR

I did it my way

trecelyn

Yearling
Over the years I have read so much on this subject and still can’t make up my mind one way or the other but what really annoys me about it is that whenever it is discussed it normally degenerates into a session of name calling and various allegations of untruths.

Some people allege they have worked it out but then refuse to divulge how, what and why. I would like to say to these people if you are getting good results from it, great but don’t sit back and crow about it and in all honesty the only person who would know if you had actually cracked it is VDW himself and unless you run it by him I can’t see how you can 100% say you have the full method in front of you.

I believe there to many good ideas in there that can be used as a starting point when evaluating a potential bet and if you can wrestle a method from his writings that works for you then great, but sure as eggs are eggs if you mention you are making money somebody will come along call you names and accuse you of not being a VDW purist.

I’m a figures man who struggles to read form and so predominately over the last few years has been using speed handicapping but recently I have discovered that as VDW mentioned it’s what a horse does in the final 2 furlongs. What I’m implying here is that horses that record a decent speed figure and are involved in the final 2 furlongs perform better than say a horse with a better speed figure but didn’t get involved in the finish. This is also backed up in some ways in the Stewart Simpson book Always Back Winners.

You see I have got a method out of it, it’s not VDW in any shape or form but it works for me and there must be others who have used part or parts of the method to find something else.

If anyone would like to discuss my way or any other way I will be here most days from now on, just don’t start the name calling.
 

ArkRoyal

Administrator
I know Bob has a done a lot of research, and I mean a lot, and I have dabbled a little.
VDW is an intriguing subject that seems to divide the forum world in half with staunch be livers being belittled by the non-be livers.

I cannot claim to have cracked it in any way but I do have a fundamental grasp of some of the 'mechanical' aspects ie Ability Ratings and Consistency Ratings etc. Something I had some success with was using the Saheer/Aldaniti cross check to identify a short list of horses for further consideration. Ultimately I failed as I wanted to automate the process and spit out the selections without having to make decisions based on my form reading ability, which isnt great, and just couldn't crack it.

AR
 

tatty

Gelding
VDW, SLICER, GOD


Never seen them in the same room

(joke, not starting row. no nowt about any of them)
 

taffman

Gelding
Trec as you may know I started the VDW thread in the UKBT site Im a believer in it was useful to narrow the field down to a manageable level I then came across a method which tries to take it a step further & select bigger priced selections from the big handicaps class 3 and above

the guy who interested me most was a fella who has become a friend now & his method still churns out big priced horses to back but sometimes 3/4 in a race which the purists sniff at but me im happy do back them if it means a nice profit

if you wish to see the method then let me know

taff
 

Bobajobber

Gelding
Skinthecat:

Hi trecelyn, I've been a big VDW fan myself for more years than I care to remember, I never cracked it though and I'm not convinced anyone else did either (as it's presented I mean). I have to say I like your approach and from my own observations I think you are on the right track. Do you make your own speed figures? Speed handicapping is an area that interests me a lot but seems fraught with difficulty, can you offer any advice in that direction please?
 

Bobajobber

Gelding
I think the whole saga brings out the worse in people, including myself, but mainly on the back of pompous old gits trying to squash other peoples thinking by believing they know better.
Fortunately I am cured now.
I did find an incredible amount of what is hidden, its like a jigsaw that needs to be put together,but it also has to be understood, this where we all fall down,but hopefully over time,I will post some interesting facts about it all and you may be able to factor some of them ideas into your betting.
I do not claim to know it all or have cracked it,each time I did,I fell on my arse,but I found some interesting areas and they can easily be washed over.
Hopefully I can read some of your own interesting work on the matter,this I would really like to see and possibly work together on the whole lot
Alot of people miss the plot in terms of they are only focussing on the end product,instead of the areas where money can be made,again hopefully we can tap into this together
 
the trouble is bob, we only live so long and as reported by the BHA there are firkin thousands of horses in training. the BHA site also says, as posted here "we make every race a challenge for the public" no shit! surely there is a simple way to specialise, to narrow it all down to get a profit? that was the aim of my jim crowley, hannon/ hughes, keep it in the family threads. there's literally millions of combinations...

if we could narrow it all down to a couple of bets a day...

 

trecelyn

Yearling
Hi Skin, can I call you that? I hardly know you. A couple of years ago I started to compile my own ratings but the time it took was just too much and if honest I was guilty of making far too many mistakes. I switched to topspeed and was able to use Jon Gibby's methods for looking at well handicapped horses(I would reccomend this book to anybody)

At some point in the future I intend posting my speed handicapping methods on here, I tried on UKBT in the hope of somebody willing to discuss them further but got a very poor response and came to the opinion that the majority of people that logged in were not there to share and help others but to take the best of some quality tipping. As a result I stopped posting for a while

I feel this forum will be different and hope that everyone who posts gets some kind of response be it praise or constructive critisism, it all helps in my opinion.

Taff I would like to see what you mentoned, on another note my other half sells jewelery and on Friday she is heading to a belly dancing convention in Pontypridd. What the hell is going on up there, there was a time when a sheep would have done.
 

ArkRoyal

Administrator
Trecelyn:

I feel this forum will be different and hope that everyone who posts gets some kind of response be it praise or constructive critisism, it all helps in my opinion.
I hope you are right trecelyn, it is one of the reasons for setting this place up.
 

Bobajobber

Gelding
Skinthecat:

Hi trecelyn, you can call me anything you like but the real name is rob. I'm not sure I'd be happy with topspeed ratings, I followed those for a long time but didn't get anywhere with them. I have Jon Gibby's book (and a whole pile of other books too many of which simply fry my brain rather than making anything clearer).

On the subject of books, I have lately developed a consuming interest in the all-weather and wonder if anyone has knowledge of Paul Whelan's "Patterns In The Sand". It's not expensive but I don't want to buy it if it's garbage.

Well, I for one look forward to learning and contributing and having some intelligent discussions on here, for me it's not about the tips or the money, it's about the understanding.
 

taffman

Gelding
Well, I for one look forward to learning and contributing and having some intelligent discussions on here, for me it's not about the tips or the money, it's about the understanding

great statment Rob hope we can help you on your quest
 
hi trecelyn
i love trying to conquer like many others the vdw way but is open to so many interpretations,i also do my own speed ratings which like u say is time consuming but just do all weather to keep it to a managable level would love to discuss your method and see if i can bring anything from what i do,really enjoying the atmosphere on here long may it continue
 

ArkRoyal

Administrator
Talking of Speed Figures, have you all read the 3 Mistakes by Darkhorse, I'll put up in the Inner Sanctum for anyone that is interested and hasn't seen it.

AR
 

Bobajobber

Gelding
Skinthecat:

On the subject of books, I have lately developed a consuming interest in the all-weather and wonder if anyone has knowledge of Paul Whelan's "Patterns In The Sand". It's not expensive but I don't want to buy it if it's garbage.
Your wish is my command, take a ganda in the 'Inner Sanctum'

Let me know if it OK, I am hoping it is the whole book.
 

mtoto

Gelding
Boba.

Have to say I read your post (reply 6) with great interest, and found it quite refreshing.

I notice there has been little follow up to your offer to discuss the subject, but have to say I'm still willing to discuss the subject with you or anyone else.

As I have tried to explain my thinking and the reasons for the thinking I will leave it up to you to open, and give your reasons for disagreeing with it.

I have had a quick read of Frankel's blog and have to say I think if Frankel had read VDW he wouldn't have to ask the questions he did. For me VDW explained how to solve the problem of using speed figures.

Be Lucky
 

Bobajobber

Gelding
Welcome Mtoto,

The forum is relatively new and we have all been pulling together to find some shape to it, it takes time and when you get into the other part, you will see,at present, you are only able to see a portion of the place.

My admittance to not cracking it is for clarity, that does not take anything away from all the research and effort I have placed on VDW, which is still on going, occasionally I have to drop all the books and conversations to digest what my thoughts are, I still communicate to others through email about it all.
My stance is still the same as before and I have no intention of locking horns with you all over again, I am happy to be involved with opinions.
 

ArkRoyal

Administrator
Has anyone seen Fulhams latest Blog post?

Further to my post of 24 October in which I mentioned the impending retirement of Alan Seddon and the closure of Browzers, the text below is a summary of some email exchanges with Alan and has been agreed by him in terms:

"Over the years I've purchased items from Browzers Books and did so again last week, noting from their website when I did so that Alan Seddon, the proprietor, is retiring at the end of the year and that the business is to close.

I met Alan once when I visited Tony Peach's home, and he therefore knows of my interest in matters VDW. After my recent purchase he emailed me re the VDW aspect of his business - Browzers being far and away the main stockist of the various VDW booklets and other material published by Tony's company, Moss Publications. Alan is wondering whether any VDWer might be interested in taking on the VDW aspect of Browzer's business.

I asked Alan what that would mean in practice. Currently Browzers has upwards of 2000 VDW and related items (the various VDW booklets plus other Moss publications such as the Marvex and Streak pamphlets), though the stock of a couple (most notably "The Ultimate Wheil of Fortune" and "Silver Lining") are either exhausted or very low. In addition to the current stock, in association with Tony, Alan is able to offer the rights to reprint the various booklets and the originals from which reprinting would take place, currently held by the printer Tony uses. In short, what is potentially available is a small business with the rights to publish the various VDW booklets and the other Moss publications, the original copies from which further print runs could be undertaken, and Browzers remaining stock of such booklets. As far as I can see, this includes everything of any worth, VDW-wise, possibly even including the agreement of Raceform for the republishing of "Systematic Betting", but that is subject to confirmation.

Alan tells me that despite not having made any positive efforts to advertise the VDW material over the last couple of years, with Tony having retired, sales of the various booklets continue, and he would of course re-direct any orders/enquiries to anyone who took on the VDW aspect of his business.

The cost of taking on the VDW aspect of the business - stock, original copies of the booklets and republishing rights - is no doubt for negotiation, but Alan has indicated that he and Tony would be looking for around £3,000.

If any VDWer is interested in this opportunity, do contact Alan Seddon direct, at Browzers."
 
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