Horses with chance.

[Chesham]

Yeah is deffinatly improving and it just shows that horses in form exspecially front runners really do have that bit extra.

Pleased with the result and probably can now stick to the sheets format and include the pace prediction and race suitability

Final Verdict​

• Best Bet: Paddys Day – Consistent, in-form, and proven over this trip.
• Strong Contender: Miss Attitude – Trainer & jockey form make this a solid choice.
• Value Each-Way: Bergerac – Good at this track and distance, worth a shot.
• Avoid: Mondammej – Unreliable with weak jockey stats.

I’m going back to my own threads for awhile but you ever needs my racing sheets, for a race ,just let me know . All the best

 

[gerry]

Thanks Chesham and good luck with sheets for future.
There deffinatly looks like a good dutching style in there for long term profit.

 

[Chesham]

Thanks gerry Ive managed to sort out the Pace Charts in Draw Order and have posted one for a race that @Sean has posted on his thread . Pleased that the Predicted Pace is similar to the one that TF Predicted

 

[gerry]

Yeah i think the pace is crucial in any race and really does matter more than most think.

 

[Leodis]

good work all

 

[gerry]

I think giving horse benifit of doubt for poor run no matter reason is just not worth it ,most time follows other poor run.
So going to figure that in from now on big time.

 

[JennyK]

VDW's examples strongly support your view, gerry.

Of his 33 selections either explicitly stated to be bets or strongly implied to have been, 21 were going up in class, and of them 18 had won lto, the other 3 had been second. Of the 12 dropping in class, 5 had won lto, and only one (Roushayd) had been outside the first 4.

VDW gave at least another 46 selections over and above the 33, some of which may have been bets. Only four could be said to have run poorly lto. Two fell (which might be regarded as unlucky rather than running poorly), and one of them VDW explicitly said he would not have backed. One came 10th in much higher class than he usually ran in (Gaye Chance) and again VDW said he would not have backed him. The odd one out in the whole near 80 was the notorious Ekbalco, who came 9th lto and was thought by some to have been pulled. VDW referred to him as a "good thing", though as we know from Kenlis, being a "good thing" is not the same as being a bet.

VDW was more forgiving of some horses' poor 3rd last or penultimate runs, Philodantes and Love From Verona being examples, respectively, but he seemed firm about requiring a good lto run. That said, although VDW thought Roushayd's last run was a good one, and that he was a "certainty" for the 1988 Old Newton Cup, others on this forum, looking at the race from their way of assessing form, disagree.

 

[gerry]

I think the less we take risks on what we think is good run or bad run and just look at facts then its just an other way of consistancy on our own reading form which is just the same as every step of the analysing consistancy on how we pick them.
There is certain blocks we come to which make us question form and also question our own ability to read it but if we can just get a stucture that gets it right down to last reason why we pick it then well on way to having a strong system if thats what its called in getting bets.
They wont all win thats for sure but do they really need to.
I would say not but if you watch them and there in the main running well you know your on decent track.
Take the last two days i have felt they have been really poor yet i have broke even for both days with enough bets.
Three i looked at tonight.
6 00 KING OF YORK not sure its done enough over mile to be confident.
7 00 SILVER SAMURAI bit of a break a worry but decent record after break.
7 30 KING OF ITHACA and looks like r ryan picked over lessay.

 

[gerry]

I mentioned the three for tonight just out of curious to see about the reason of doubts.
And king of york did get done at the mile, the break proved to much this time for silver samuri.
And king of ithaca still to run dosnt really have any reason not to run close. Only thing that stops it from being what you would call decent bet is the race grade is to low and that could count as a consistancy problem see how it goes i think should place at least.

 

[Chesham]

Did VDW ever mention Pace and Draw bias. I don’t recall that being a factor with his assessments with regards Flat Races. Example The 2000 Gns is often a race where pace positioning and draw is a factor, yet no mention of that with his his assessment when he used Speed Merit ratings

 

[Chesham]

VDW Examples never seem to mention Pace and draw bias , yet in the To-Agori-Mou example no mention is made,of,pace and draw bias, quite often this is the comtributing difference between success and failure.
Also no mention is made by VDW that Kind Of Hush had beaten To-Agori-Mou In the LTO race before they met each other again in the 2000 Gns


Kind Of Hush is conveniently over looked Even for dutching suggestion ,despite having a higher ability rating but marked down to 12 the consistency due to a L for its only previous 2 yo race. Yet To-Agori-Mou gets marked up for it’s 2yo speed merit rating

To me this seems to be massively after timed and the pieces made to fit and other pieces of form conveniently left out of the assessment. Yes it was a shock defeat when Kind Of beat TOG and Ot was only 2 weeks before

VDW - Just a few thoughts VDW or otherwise.

 

[JennyK]

gerry

As my earlier post today shows, many of VDW's 33 claimed or inferred bets had won lto, but in the piece in which he referred to Pegwell Bay and Nomadic Way he advised wariness in respect of certain lto winners:

"A winning horse is often sent up in class next time out, frequently over a longer distance, and those following winners last time out should treat these with caution.

You will find that a large percentage of handicap winners have been raced above their ability before being dropped in class to collect. Horses which show form and then are dropped well in class and perhaps over a shorter distance are worth looking at more than once."

You'll find a good example of both situations with the class/form horse in the last at Southwell this evening.

I don't follow foreign racing so I didn't see it at the time, but under his previous trainer the same horse won with essentially the same pattern in Ireland last May. I don't know whether he was the class/form horse in that race, though.

 

[Chesham]

Rapid View for the Free Bets With BetUK Bet Club Handicap —


We’re only showing angles that are statistically strong.

---

Elite Data-Only Shortlist (Filtered)​

---

Sevensees​

Last 5 Runs:

• 2 Wins from 5 → 40% Win Rate

Over Today's Distance:

• 2 Wins from 4 → 50% Win Rate

±1f in Class:

• 1 Win from 3 → 33% Win Rate

Horse at Distance + Going:

• Multiple strong metrics including 33% on going and 50% at course/distance

Dam ("Laughing Dove") at Distance:

• 2 wins from 4 → 50%
• Very strong breeding angle

Verdict:
✔✔✔ Across form, distance, dam, and going – Sevensees is the most statistically qualified runner.

---

Ready Freddie Go​

Career Wins:

• 9 Wins from 40 → 23% → Just under threshold overall
  In this Class:
• 5 wins from 13 → 38%
  Distance + Class Combined:
• 5 wins from 11 → 45% Win Rate
  Track Stats:
• 33% on going
• Strong recent days-off bracket (30% win)

Verdict:
✔ Dominant in this class and trip combo – likely a big run if fit and tuned.

---

Good Earth​

With Today’s Jockey (B D L Sayette):

• 2 wins from 3 → 67% Win Rate
  Distance + Class Combined:
• 3 Wins from 7 → 43% Win Rate

Verdict:
✔ Doesn't show much overall, but combo with jockey and trip/class is elite. Market support?

---

Je Ne Sais Quoi​

At Today’s Distance:

• 2 Wins from 7 → 29%
  Going Stats for Dam ("If So")
• 3 Wins from 9 → 33%
  Dam in Class:
• 3 Wins from 10 → 30%

Verdict:
✔ Breeding shines, horse form just below threshold but improving. Sleeper value.

---

Strong Breeding Stats (Filtered)​

• Dam “Laughing Dove” (Sevensees):
  • 2 Wins / 4 → 50% at distance
• Dam “If So” (Tan Rapido):
  • 3 Wins / 10 in Class → 30%
  • 3 Wins / 9 on Going → 33%
• Dam Stallion “Tamayuz” (Sevensees):
  • 4 Wins / 13 over CD → 31%

---

Final Shortlist – Only Those That Hit 3+ Wins & 27%+ Strike Rate​

Rank	Horse	Strong Angles	Strike Rate Highlight
1	Sevensees	Distance, Form (L5), Dam, Going, Breeding	50% at distance
2	Ready Freddie Go	Class & Trip Combo, Track	45% at dist/class
3	Good Earth	Jockey Combo, Distance/Class	67% w/ jockey
	Je Ne Sais Quoi	Dam Class/Going, Distance	33% breeding angle

---

Suggested Bet Ideas (Data-Backed)​

• WIN: Sevensees – elite strike rates at trip, ground, and recent form
• EW Value: Good Earth – if jockey stat holds
• Place Play/Exotics: Ready Freddie Go, Je Ne Sais Quoi

---

 

[gerry]

Well i have a yankee for today and i think one is the best bet i have seen for while. win or loss i think stands out as good as any i have seen.
1 50 KELSO WYENOT.This hrose is getting better for step up in distance , yet the track style dosnt seem to bother it easy or stiff.
Droping in class looks good thing.
2 40 NEWBURY SAINT SEGAL. This infact looks to me like the bet of the week, Has been improving steady all along and loves track as last run shows again. I could make little worry about ground getting to fast for it but i am not going to as there is nothing taking me away from its chance today which is solid.
5 00 NEWBURY TEDDY BLUE. Has found its form lately possibly getting used to blinkers and starting show what it has, Maybe just getting the hang of fencing and looks like ground will be ideal good chance.
5 35 NEWBURY RIVERS CORNER.First time blinkers seemed to work when won last time round here that was improvment and if they work in this similar race can go in again.

What i am doing today is having a bet on wyenot at the 7/4 booster on bet365 and if wins will take my money back and put rest on saint segal at 11/4 and half on cover bet 13/8 3 places. And if wyenot happens to get beat then will still be on saint segal on those two bets.
Just gives insight to my thinking today.

 

[tacker]

I’m with you with Saint Segal gerry

 

[gerry]

Two main ones down so struggle today now.

 

[JennyK]

In the 8.15 Newcastlethe ability ratings of the field are quite compressed with, behind the top three, a further three separated by no more than 1 point. Although not in my view the class/form horse, one of those in the second trio, Dark Kestrel, is not without interest.

He has run 13 times over 5f on the aw since 01/01/24 in races of up to class 63 and has never been out of the first 5.

When running off an OR of 74 or below, as today, he has won twice and placed five times in seven races, the average OR of the seven being 69.0 (today 69.5).

Off above 74 he is no wins and one place from six races, the average OR being 74.4.

Lto he showed improvement in the same class as in the race before, achieving his best sf (on TheBluesBrother's figures), for a long while of 63. Today he is dropping from a class 50 (AOR 73.4) to a class 37 (AOR 69.5) with excellent key horse support from that last race, which one always likes to see with class droppers.

Depending, as ever, on prices, he looks a possible place only proposition.

 

[JennyK]

After a poor start, not the most comfortable of watches, but all right in the end and maintains his 100% win or place record in these circumstances.

With the top two on ability not being form horses, but the first two home, yet another reminder of the potency of ability, even when not accompanied by form.

VDW knew a thing or two.

 

[gerry]

It just shows you betting my four today for place only wyenot would have been no bet at odds and other three would have placed.
Instead you loss money and more likely to loss money in general betting winners.
I think on flat will be even better stratagy place only.
I was doing really well with it although slow process need to really think hard about singles place bets.
And wyenot let me down for my place accum i bet on the four as i bet first two places i should have just through in the 1/4 three places or left it out all together.

 

[JennyK]

I should think you are right about the flat being easier, gerry, when thinking about place betting, because of more ways nh horses can fail to complete.

Assessing risk is a problem. I put together a template I've been using with the VDW examples and I tried it today with Dark Kestrel - see attachment.

With Prominent King, on the present construct you'll see I have 10 of the other 15 runners as possible threats, 66.7%.

With Dark Kestrel today, I had 6 out of the other 10 runners as possible threats, 60%.

I think both figures are high. The lowest VDW example so far, with many more to do, is Nomadic Way, where I have his comparable figure as 30.4% and the highest First Division at 75% but I am sure I'll find both higher and lower.

Obviously, what I am hoping to find is that VDW's stated bets have lower figures than the likes of Kenlis, class/form horses stated not be have been bets.

And of course while 66.7% and 60% look high figures if contemplating a win single, not so high if contemplating place singles. But very much work in progress and like many other ideas, will probably collapse the more I explore it.