Horses with chance.
- Thread starter gerry
- Start date
gerry
Mare
To much time on hand i suppose but this is my low down on the racing today without saying all are bets just what i think as look through them little insight. I will put them in time as day goes.
2 00 WETHERBY MISTER SMARTY. I am actually on this one at 7/2 so really lowered in betting now and likely to short this is likley the most consistant horse running today and has the form in book to win so not alot to not like.FINISHED 3RD
2 30 WETHERBY GERYVILLE. I find it really wierd that this one has drifted right out to last in betting as it has been running over three miles but inbetween its run over this distance it won well round here and time before when run at this distance won too so i gave this decent chance and at odds should i go in again i am not sure i hate big drifters but lets see how it goes.FINISHED 2ND
3 17 EXETER LE LIGERIAN.This is a interesting race as i see why they have gambled the fav here and on form if taking to fences this time would win but there was something telling me looking through form it just dosnt take to jumps and if i am right then mine is a consistant horse running well who could just be to slick for it and i think the odds are interesting if i am right. FINISHED LAST OF FOUR.
3 35 WETHERBY KELCE.
I just feel that this horse in last couple races has really found its form over fences. And there is alot to be said for novices who just go and take up running and go for it and i can see this running big race today and price is right only four runners some time your better whith them kicking on in small fields also.WON
3 52 EXETER TINY TETLEY. With the danger out of race this has shortened some what but i think it has decent form last couple times stepped up and was found out, I dont think its easy to set good pace with better horses and this is more to its liking, likes track should go very close.WON
4 10 WETHERBY JUKEBOX FURY. The trainer said was change of tactics brought about improvement last time which is clearly a load of bollocks as the improvement was to dramatic it was just waitin to start its career and stepped up in distance was the order of day and now its found its mark i can see it going in again.WON
4 27 EXETER STRIKING A POSE. I like this horse today at the price i think if you look back at its form this is the distance it is best at it likes the track and they put blinkers on for first time last time out at age 9 and i feel it was decent run to now back in distance and with them on at this track i would say its deffinatly one to watch for today.FINISHED 3RD
5 02 EXETER FILANDERER. I think this horse has drifted alittle because of the ground likes softer but has shown enough to say will be ok i think and what this horse needs is to be let go at its own pace and not held up, And i feel the now fav has not shown enough to show its better over fences than hurdles and they have them wrong in betting which is good enough reason to feel there value now. NR.
5 25 WOLVERHAMPTON APACHE STAR.This horse is simply a head of these and should win the only slight worry is the small field as it will wait till late to pounce and the pace is only thing it will hinder it . FINISHED LAST OF FOUR.
6 30 WOLVERHAMPTON CANDY WARHOR. The reason this horse is such a big price is that it ahsnt won a race yet and that bad after 23 runs so why should it now but its actually a reasonably consistant runner couple years back and run really well last time , And what i found interesting is it has a new jockey on it and he was on one for trainer earlier this month and held it up so i feel if he can manage to hold it up early this horse could place and thats my main aim with this one. WELL BEAT.
7 00 WOLVERHAMPTON PESSOA. I think its mainly consistancy that makes this horse interesting but also its win ratio is usually 7 furlongs here and when it runs close over mile they are usually decent run races and it just fades but this is ideal to go close.WON
7 30 WOLVERHAMPTON KING OF SPEED.There is nothing between the first two in betting here on there run together but i feel king of speed has the edge 2lb better of yes the seond improved next time but thats not to say king of speed would have to if run next time at this track instead of southwell but its close between them for sure. BEAT
8 30 WOLVERHAMPTON FOREST SPIRIT. I think this horse has more to offer round here than even his last win and if they go ok pace i think will be to good for anything in this race , would be a dissapointing losser i feel anyway.WON
2 00 WETHERBY MISTER SMARTY. I am actually on this one at 7/2 so really lowered in betting now and likely to short this is likley the most consistant horse running today and has the form in book to win so not alot to not like.FINISHED 3RD
2 30 WETHERBY GERYVILLE. I find it really wierd that this one has drifted right out to last in betting as it has been running over three miles but inbetween its run over this distance it won well round here and time before when run at this distance won too so i gave this decent chance and at odds should i go in again i am not sure i hate big drifters but lets see how it goes.FINISHED 2ND
3 17 EXETER LE LIGERIAN.This is a interesting race as i see why they have gambled the fav here and on form if taking to fences this time would win but there was something telling me looking through form it just dosnt take to jumps and if i am right then mine is a consistant horse running well who could just be to slick for it and i think the odds are interesting if i am right. FINISHED LAST OF FOUR.
3 35 WETHERBY KELCE.
I just feel that this horse in last couple races has really found its form over fences. And there is alot to be said for novices who just go and take up running and go for it and i can see this running big race today and price is right only four runners some time your better whith them kicking on in small fields also.WON
3 52 EXETER TINY TETLEY. With the danger out of race this has shortened some what but i think it has decent form last couple times stepped up and was found out, I dont think its easy to set good pace with better horses and this is more to its liking, likes track should go very close.WON
4 10 WETHERBY JUKEBOX FURY. The trainer said was change of tactics brought about improvement last time which is clearly a load of bollocks as the improvement was to dramatic it was just waitin to start its career and stepped up in distance was the order of day and now its found its mark i can see it going in again.WON
4 27 EXETER STRIKING A POSE. I like this horse today at the price i think if you look back at its form this is the distance it is best at it likes the track and they put blinkers on for first time last time out at age 9 and i feel it was decent run to now back in distance and with them on at this track i would say its deffinatly one to watch for today.FINISHED 3RD
5 02 EXETER FILANDERER. I think this horse has drifted alittle because of the ground likes softer but has shown enough to say will be ok i think and what this horse needs is to be let go at its own pace and not held up, And i feel the now fav has not shown enough to show its better over fences than hurdles and they have them wrong in betting which is good enough reason to feel there value now. NR.
5 25 WOLVERHAMPTON APACHE STAR.This horse is simply a head of these and should win the only slight worry is the small field as it will wait till late to pounce and the pace is only thing it will hinder it . FINISHED LAST OF FOUR.
6 30 WOLVERHAMPTON CANDY WARHOR. The reason this horse is such a big price is that it ahsnt won a race yet and that bad after 23 runs so why should it now but its actually a reasonably consistant runner couple years back and run really well last time , And what i found interesting is it has a new jockey on it and he was on one for trainer earlier this month and held it up so i feel if he can manage to hold it up early this horse could place and thats my main aim with this one. WELL BEAT.
7 00 WOLVERHAMPTON PESSOA. I think its mainly consistancy that makes this horse interesting but also its win ratio is usually 7 furlongs here and when it runs close over mile they are usually decent run races and it just fades but this is ideal to go close.WON
7 30 WOLVERHAMPTON KING OF SPEED.There is nothing between the first two in betting here on there run together but i feel king of speed has the edge 2lb better of yes the seond improved next time but thats not to say king of speed would have to if run next time at this track instead of southwell but its close between them for sure. BEAT
8 30 WOLVERHAMPTON FOREST SPIRIT. I think this horse has more to offer round here than even his last win and if they go ok pace i think will be to good for anything in this race , would be a dissapointing losser i feel anyway.WON
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gerry
Mare
Well 5 winners from 11 was not to bad and couple nice places but i think can do better as since i changed my thoughts on what i am doing had 11 winners from 21 so its clearly working.
Todays racing i have only looked at the jumps so far as going golfing now and will look at southwell when home.
But for what i see it is very tricky racing and will just be puting on a little lucky fifteen on these four i done that yesterday and i also put on a accum that four would finish in first 3 one bet and three did and the other was declared none runner as only three run in race but won race so that bet alone covered all bets of day.Anything else was profit so will do the same today see if they at least all place.
3 35 HUNTINGDON SUPERSTYLIN .This horse has got the form to win this and is quiet consistant but has run here before and not done great is worry and usually would like softer ground so there is doubts but i think will go well.
4 25 HAYDOCK DUKE OF DECEPTION.This horse got beat by rockinastorm but is better of at weights to turn table.
And has won round here a plus and i think has more form over further than 3 miles so should be in with decent shout in this.
Although all four selections are tight today this is possibly the best one and shows its not easy today.
4 42 HUNTINGDON KAPAMAZOV.This horse has run three decent races since cheeks put on and two where round here so makes sense to try again and last run was best so looks like with same mark could go very close.
5 00 HAYDOCK TYPHOON FLYER. I just felt that the current fav in this race would like easier track than this where is should not bother this fellow although if total honest i would be alot happier if was 2miles.
But in the context of the race it should still go close, the ascot run was decent and if reproduces that should win.
Todays racing i have only looked at the jumps so far as going golfing now and will look at southwell when home.
But for what i see it is very tricky racing and will just be puting on a little lucky fifteen on these four i done that yesterday and i also put on a accum that four would finish in first 3 one bet and three did and the other was declared none runner as only three run in race but won race so that bet alone covered all bets of day.Anything else was profit so will do the same today see if they at least all place.
3 35 HUNTINGDON SUPERSTYLIN .This horse has got the form to win this and is quiet consistant but has run here before and not done great is worry and usually would like softer ground so there is doubts but i think will go well.
4 25 HAYDOCK DUKE OF DECEPTION.This horse got beat by rockinastorm but is better of at weights to turn table.
And has won round here a plus and i think has more form over further than 3 miles so should be in with decent shout in this.
Although all four selections are tight today this is possibly the best one and shows its not easy today.
4 42 HUNTINGDON KAPAMAZOV.This horse has run three decent races since cheeks put on and two where round here so makes sense to try again and last run was best so looks like with same mark could go very close.
5 00 HAYDOCK TYPHOON FLYER. I just felt that the current fav in this race would like easier track than this where is should not bother this fellow although if total honest i would be alot happier if was 2miles.
But in the context of the race it should still go close, the ascot run was decent and if reproduces that should win.
JennyK
Gelding
If we take VDW's guidance seriously,
gerry, and of course if one is aiming for a very high strike rate, it follows that the default position with any race is no bet:
"I would estimate that I wager on less than 20 percent of horses I consider potential winners." ("The Ultimate Wheil Of Fortune", page 24.)
Of course this "less than 20 percent" can be markedly higher with the availability of place only markets - I've been told that in VDW's day one could not back place only to known odds, only on the Tote where the price, the dividend, is only known after the race. And of course if one sets oneself a lower target than the "85% to 90%" winners he claimed (though never proved). Personally, I will be pleased if I hit 50% with win bets, singles or books, over the course of the year, but very disappointed if I don't hit at least 70% with the place only ones. At the moment both are aspirations, not achievements!
gerry, and of course if one is aiming for a very high strike rate, it follows that the default position with any race is no bet:"I would estimate that I wager on less than 20 percent of horses I consider potential winners." ("The Ultimate Wheil Of Fortune", page 24.)
Of course this "less than 20 percent" can be markedly higher with the availability of place only markets - I've been told that in VDW's day one could not back place only to known odds, only on the Tote where the price, the dividend, is only known after the race. And of course if one sets oneself a lower target than the "85% to 90%" winners he claimed (though never proved). Personally, I will be pleased if I hit 50% with win bets, singles or books, over the course of the year, but very disappointed if I don't hit at least 70% with the place only ones. At the moment both are aspirations, not achievements!
gerry
Mare
Yeah i agree
JennyK that if one could hit 50% win bets they would be doing incredible but its just every day is differant and once you have one the odds predict alot do i bet to win or bet to place or not bet at all.
And i think this is where we get clouded as some days we feel should it be a win bet then next day its big price so e/w or place bet then some time you have race that looks two horse race and dutching is answer.
Maybe thats why its crucial you pick out best race of day or two races and you solely study them as you your fixed on a race and let that race decide how many you fancy in it then way up what you do with selections some days be two horses some days be place or some days there margins for three or four horses in race to make profit.
Or there can be ways you say i want to make 50 quid today on best two races you study them and once wrote them down what you like in them you decide if there is 50 pound profit to be made with say no more stake than 25 total bet or even 50 bet.
And if its not possible then you leave it i think that way there is agreat chance you could get good percentages your chasing.
JennyK that if one could hit 50% win bets they would be doing incredible but its just every day is differant and once you have one the odds predict alot do i bet to win or bet to place or not bet at all.And i think this is where we get clouded as some days we feel should it be a win bet then next day its big price so e/w or place bet then some time you have race that looks two horse race and dutching is answer.
Maybe thats why its crucial you pick out best race of day or two races and you solely study them as you your fixed on a race and let that race decide how many you fancy in it then way up what you do with selections some days be two horses some days be place or some days there margins for three or four horses in race to make profit.
Or there can be ways you say i want to make 50 quid today on best two races you study them and once wrote them down what you like in them you decide if there is 50 pound profit to be made with say no more stake than 25 total bet or even 50 bet.
And if its not possible then you leave it i think that way there is agreat chance you could get good percentages your chasing.
gerry
Mare
I think if you put all the dots together
JennyK class of race consistancy current form and even speed in there just like todays racing you finally come to the conclusion that its not easy to even find a bet never mind a winner.
Take today i could mention half a dozen chances but going to stop doing that as there is nothing of note that your saying qualifies in every aspect of your analyse well for start there not one decent race today so it was over before you start actually.
I would say were looking at better races is for sure and consistancy and current form along with ratings to give us a fuller picture although i am still not for the placings making a picture that just dosnt make sense to me at all its just as easy to see strong form as you study.
And i think the fault with career winnings i feel although shows what they have done longer term can muddle the picture as easily as help.
I think it might be a small part at end of your selection to say this horse can do it every year giving alittle more cement to it nothing more.
JennyK class of race consistancy current form and even speed in there just like todays racing you finally come to the conclusion that its not easy to even find a bet never mind a winner.Take today i could mention half a dozen chances but going to stop doing that as there is nothing of note that your saying qualifies in every aspect of your analyse well for start there not one decent race today so it was over before you start actually.
I would say were looking at better races is for sure and consistancy and current form along with ratings to give us a fuller picture although i am still not for the placings making a picture that just dosnt make sense to me at all its just as easy to see strong form as you study.
And i think the fault with career winnings i feel although shows what they have done longer term can muddle the picture as easily as help.
I think it might be a small part at end of your selection to say this horse can do it every year giving alittle more cement to it nothing more.
JennyK
Gelding
Thin pickings today,
gerry. Just the one aw meeting and as I don't do 3yo only handicaps there is only one sprint, the 7.00. I've just checked, and that is now down to seven runners.
Not without interest, though. I'll need to re-run the race through my application without the non-runners but I think Miss Attitude is now the class/form horse. With Tees Spirit withdrawn, I have her as 4th in the ability ratings ranking, a form horse and fine on conditions criteria. The three with higher ARs are not in my view form horses.
Miss Attitude has the best lto performance (on my ratings) and only Bergerac has had a better winning handicap performance since 01/01/2024. I also make her second (again to Bergerac) over the same period in terms of
TheBluesBrother's sfs.
I'll have a further look later when Ive finished planting out my sweet peas but at the moment, were the right price available, she looks a possible place bet at least.
gerry. Just the one aw meeting and as I don't do 3yo only handicaps there is only one sprint, the 7.00. I've just checked, and that is now down to seven runners.Not without interest, though. I'll need to re-run the race through my application without the non-runners but I think Miss Attitude is now the class/form horse. With Tees Spirit withdrawn, I have her as 4th in the ability ratings ranking, a form horse and fine on conditions criteria. The three with higher ARs are not in my view form horses.
Miss Attitude has the best lto performance (on my ratings) and only Bergerac has had a better winning handicap performance since 01/01/2024. I also make her second (again to Bergerac) over the same period in terms of
TheBluesBrother's sfs. I'll have a further look later when Ive finished planting out my sweet peas but at the moment, were the right price available, she looks a possible place bet at least.
Chesham
Sire
A little data to help you . The Speed Ratings are
TheBluesBrother and from the
mlmrob sheet
Only Miss Attitude has a Speed Rating greater than OR, so it is the only horse correctly marked with the flame symbol.
Miss Attitude (30%) is the strongest selection due to its best Speed Rating (94) > OR (92), and top TFR (116).
Paddy’s Day (25%) and Buzz Box (20%) are competitive but do not qualify for the flame symbol.
Mondammej (3%) and Fahrenheit Seven (5%) are unlikely to challenge based on Speed Ratings and form.
This is THE STATS ANALYSIS ( Different Approach as it takes into account T/J, Horse Stats, Breeding Stats Based on Sire, although I would prefer if the Female Tail Line was used instead)
TheBluesBrother and from the
mlmrob sheetFinal Corrected Rankings and Win Probabilities
| Rank | Horse | Age | Wgt (st-lb) | OR | Speed Rating | TFR | Odds | Win % | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Miss Attitude | 8 | 8-13 (92) | 92 | 94 | 116 | 3/1 | 30% | Only horse with Speed Rating higher than OR (94 > 92). |
 | Paddy’s Day | 8 | 8-7 (86) | 86 | 78 | 114 | 7/2 | 25% | Consistent sprinter, but Speed Rating below OR. |
 | Buzz Box | 8 | 8-5 (84) | 84 | 73 | 114 | 4/1 | 20% | Strong competitor but Speed Rating below OR. |
 | Bergerac | 8 | 8-12 (91) | 91 | 65 | 115 | 5/1 | 15% | Needs improvement, Speed Rating below OR. |
 | Ventura Express | 8 | 8-6 (85) | 85 | 57 | 117 | 6/1 | 10% | Speed Rating far below OR. |
 | Prince Of Pillo | 8 | 8-12 (91) | 91 | 64 | 114 | 7/1 | 8% | Underwhelming Speed Ratings. |
 | Fahrenheit Seven | 8 | 8-4 (83) | 83 | 64 | 114 | 8/1 | 5% | Lacks the speed to challenge. |
 | Mondammej | 8 | 8-4 (83) | 83 | 51 | 115 | 10/1 | 3% | Struggling to make an impact. |
Final Key Takeaways
Only Miss Attitude has a Speed Rating greater than OR, so it is the only horse correctly marked with the flame symbol. Miss Attitude (30%) is the strongest selection due to its best Speed Rating (94) > OR (92), and top TFR (116). Paddy’s Day (25%) and Buzz Box (20%) are competitive but do not qualify for the flame symbol. Mondammej (3%) and Fahrenheit Seven (5%) are unlikely to challenge based on Speed Ratings and form.Horse Running Styles and Trends Analysis
Tees Spirit
- Running Style: Front-runner / Prominent
- Trends: Performs best when able to dictate the pace early but struggles to sustain it in large fields. Has a pattern of weakening in the final furlong, especially in tougher races. Wins when leading and controlling the race from the front.
- Prediction: Needs a small field to dictate terms; best in 5f races with little early pace pressure.
Miss Attitude
- Running Style: Hold-up / Midfield
- Trends: Starts slowly but finishes strongly when given room. Performs best when making a late charge from off the pace.
- Prediction: Suited to races with a strong early pace where she can pass tiring rivals late.
Prince Of Pillo (IRE)
- Running Style: Front-runner / Prominent
- Trends: Initially a strong front-runner but has struggled when faced with stiff competition or larger fields. Wins when settled and ridden patiently before making a late run.
- Prediction: Best suited to small-field races where he can control the pace without early pressure.
Bergerac (IRE)
- Running Style: Prominent / Chaser
- Trends: Often up with the pace but does not always sustain it in the final furlong. More effective in slightly longer sprints (5.5f - 6f).
- Prediction: Performs best when tracking leaders rather than setting the pace.
Paddys Day (IRE)
- Running Style: Front-runner / Prominent
- Trends: Tends to run keenly early but stays on well if controlling the race. Wins when dictating the pace but can struggle in large fields with strong closers.
- Prediction: Ideal in small fields where he can dominate from the front.
Ventura Express
- Running Style: Hold-up / Midfield
- Trends: Unpredictable, occasionally winning but often getting caught in traffic. Performs best when making a sustained late run.
- Prediction: Needs a race with a fast pace up front to be most effective.
Buzz Box
- Running Style: Midfield / Strong Finisher
- Trends: Has a strong finishing kick and does best when able to find a clear run in the final furlong.
- Prediction: Will perform well in races where others set a fast pace early.
Mondammej
- Running Style: Hold-up / Slow Starter
- Trends: Typically races towards the rear and makes a late charge. Can be inconsistent if getting stuck behind horses.
- Prediction: Prefers strongly run races where he can take advantage of fading front-runners.
Fahrenheit Seven
- Running Style: Prominent / Stalker
- Trends: Tends to race near the pace without necessarily leading. Stays on well in the final furlong.
- Prediction: Suited to races where he can track a strong leader and challenge late.
Overall Insights
- Front-runners: Tees Spirit, Prince Of Pillo, Paddys Day
- Prominent Chasers: Bergerac, Fahrenheit Seven
- Midfield Runners: Buzz Box, Ventura Express
- Hold-up Horses: Miss Attitude, Mondammej
This is THE STATS ANALYSIS ( Different Approach as it takes into account T/J, Horse Stats, Breeding Stats Based on Sire, although I would prefer if the Female Tail Line was used instead)
Ranked Order of Horses by Winning Probability for the BetUK: Its Where The UK Bets Handicap (Class 2, 5f, Standard To Slow Going)
Paddys Day (IRE) – 57%
- Trainer Form: N Tinkler has 19% win rate at this track & distance.
- Jockey Form: Alex Jary has 19% win rate at this track/distance.
- Proven Form: 100% win rate in the last 3 races, 60% win rate in the last 5 races.
- Course & Distance: Starspangledbanner offspring have 26% win rate at this course/distance.
- Odds: 100/30 (Strong Contender, Most Reliable Pick).
Miss Attitude – 33%
- Trainer Form: Jack Channon has 70% win rate in the last 30 days.
- Jockey Form: Charles Bishop has 20% win rate in this class.
- Proven Form: 50% win rate with today’s jockey, 29% career win rate.
- Course & Distance: Cityscape offspring have 19% win rate at this distance.
- Odds: 3/1 (Each-Way Play, Trainer in Red-Hot Form).
Bergerac (IRE) – 29%
- Trainer Form: K A Ryan has 27% win rate at this track/distance.
- Jockey Form: Tom Eaves has 17% win rate at this distance.
- Proven Form: 25% win rate at this class & track, 29% win rate on AW surfaces.
- Course & Distance: Kodi Bear offspring have 17% win rate at this course/distance.
- Odds: 11/4 (Value Contender, Strong Stats at Course & Distance).
Prince Of Pillo (IRE) – 25%
- Trainer Form: R A Fahey has 17% win rate over this distance & class.
- Jockey Form: Oisin Orr has 13% strike rate at this distance & class.
- Proven Form: 33% win rate at this distance, 25% in this class.
- Course & Distance: Prince Of Lir offspring have 13% win rate in this class.
- Odds: 17/2 (Strong Each-Way, but Trainer Not in Best Form).
Fahrenheit Seven – 25%
- Trainer Form: M D I Usher has 14% strike rate in the last 30 days.
- Jockey Form: Andrew Mullen is unproven at this distance/class.
- Proven Form: 60% win rate in the last 5 runs, 38% career win rate.
- Course & Distance: Foxwedge offspring have 17% win rate at this distance.
- Odds: 10/1 (Potential Upset, but Risky Bet).
Ventura Express – 23%
- Trainer Form: P T Midgley has 11% strike rate in the last year.
- Jockey Form: Warren Fentiman has 20% win rate in this class.
- Proven Form: 23% win rate at this distance, but inconsistent recent form.
- Course & Distance: Mayson offspring have 13% win rate at this distance.
- Odds: 8/1 (Inconsistent, Needs to Step Up).
Mondammej – 20%
- Trainer Form: Antony Brittain has 14% win rate over the past year.
- Jockey Form: Cameron Hardie has 9% strike rate at this track/distance.
- Proven Form: 30% win rate in the last 10 races, 27% at this course/distance.
- Course & Distance: Lope De Vega offspring have 12% strike rate at this track.
- Odds: 11/1 (Outside Chance, but Faces Stiff Competition).
Final Verdict
- Best Bet: Paddys Day – Consistent, in-form, and proven over this trip.
Strong Contender: Miss Attitude – Trainer & jockey form make this a solid choice.
Value Each-Way: Bergerac – Good at this track and distance, worth a shot.
Avoid: Mondammej – Unreliable with weak jockey stats.
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gerry
Mare
I have went for a little place double tonight and in the 7 00 i agree with
Chesham that with 5 fur and track form PADDYS DAY is improving and style could hold on it had low draw last time which i would have worried about but didnt stop it infact improved it.
And i think the best horse for place tonight runs in the 5 30 ASGARDS CAPTAIN every thing is lined up for this to run great race again loves track in form and won race last year of 79 but think improved so should go close.
Chesham that with 5 fur and track form PADDYS DAY is improving and style could hold on it had low draw last time which i would have worried about but didnt stop it infact improved it.And i think the best horse for place tonight runs in the 5 30 ASGARDS CAPTAIN every thing is lined up for this to run great race again loves track in form and won race last year of 79 but think improved so should go close.
Chesham
Sire
I’m trying to get the sheets to the Best that I can, to aid a possible Selection. The Pace Chart was created last night, but needs improving as it would be better in Draw Order.I have went for a little place double tonight and in the 7 00 i agree with
And i think the best horse for place tonight runs in the 5 30 ASGARDS CAPTAIN every thing is lined up for this to run great race again loves track in form and won race last year of 79 but think improved so should go close.
Probably over 17 years ago I was experimenting with similar charts and speed Ratings alongside, but it was a laborious Task. Only revisited the idea last night and it was a quick process with the tools available now. Tries it out on a NH Race to see if it was good aid . I will post it here later
Chesham
Sire
Hi
gerry
I’m still experimenting with these and not involved in this race financially but today was trying The Speed Handicap Sheets out and a Pace Analysis to see how it all worked out. Pleased with the result as the top two from the Speed Handicap were the first two home and the pace chart seemed to give them the best chance if the pace prediction worked out as expected.
We have probably the best Speed Handicapper in
TheBluesBrother and
mlmrob makes it easy with the Daily sheets.
I always think that a Speed Rting is a measure of stamina in that the horses with the highest speed figures are the ones who who will slow down the least in the closing stages. Of course it helps if the predicted pace is going to be strong amd not finish with a sprint to the line in a slow paced race.
The other option is a horse who has the best speed ratings and is front runner who can set the fractions itself and will burn off competitors as it will not slow down as much as they will trying to make up ground in the closing stages.
gerry I’m still experimenting with these and not involved in this race financially but today was trying The Speed Handicap Sheets out and a Pace Analysis to see how it all worked out. Pleased with the result as the top two from the Speed Handicap were the first two home and the pace chart seemed to give them the best chance if the pace prediction worked out as expected.
We have probably the best Speed Handicapper in
TheBluesBrother and
mlmrob makes it easy with the Daily sheets. I always think that a Speed Rting is a measure of stamina in that the horses with the highest speed figures are the ones who who will slow down the least in the closing stages. Of course it helps if the predicted pace is going to be strong amd not finish with a sprint to the line in a slow paced race.
The other option is a horse who has the best speed ratings and is front runner who can set the fractions itself and will burn off competitors as it will not slow down as much as they will trying to make up ground in the closing stages.
JennyK
Gelding
gerry Having re-run the race with the seven runners, I confirm that from my understanding of VDW's method Miss Attitude is the class/form horse.
She faces three better horses (on VDW's main ability ratings), none form horses but as always, the possibility that a higher ability rated horse than the class/form horse might return to form.
She also faces two highly consistent horses not in the top four on ability but not too far below her 58; Paddy's Day 53 and Farenheit Seven 51.
And all three are consistent/very consistent. Since 01/01/24 MA has run in eight handicaps, five won/first three finishes and two of the three down the fields very forgiveable (one her return after 591 days off the track, another a class 515 at York). Over the same period PD had run in twice as many handicaps, winning/placing in ten. FS, a year younger, has had just five, and won/placed in them all. On average, MA has been running in much better class than the other two, even disregarding the class 515 where she may have been out-classed. FS as the 4yo facing two 5yos, may have the most potential for improvement.
It is perfectly clear to me that Miss Attitude is not one of the 20% of class/form horses VDW would have backed. Currently it does not look as though she will be an acceptable price (to me) for a place only.
Hopefully Paddy's Day can recoup for you in respect of Asguards Captain.