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Horses For Courses

Sean

Gelding
I've always been a believer in the adage 'Horses For Courses' and generally speaking i like horses to have at least a course win under their belt to be honest . Thought i would start a thread picking out what i consider the best ones of the day with decent (in my opinion) course form .. have done this sort of thing before and usually does okay , famous last words lol .. i'll attempt a little reasoning but i'm not great at that like some on here so be kind and bear with me lol ..

Will state the price at time of posting , which bookies and the stake .. either 1/2 , 1 , or 2 points (win or each way) and will naturally keep a running total

Will review it after a month see whether its worth keeping it up
 

Sean

Gelding
Friday 12th March

1.00 Lingfield - Caribeno 2 Point Win @ 1/2 (Paddy P) / Byford 1 Point Win @ 10/3 (365 , Will Hill , Lads)
CARIBENO comes into this race in fine fettle , winning his last 6 starts and he looks to be one of those 'typical' Mark Prescott improvers that the trainer seems to do so well with , last 2 victories have come here , and is 3 from 3 at Leafy , with two of those being over todays distance of 1m4f , won last time by 1 1/4 lengths and was always in control of the race , and i really don't think a 5lb penalty is going to stop him achieving the 7 timer if i'm being honest , Luke Morris is in the plate and he's 5 wins from 6 rides to date so obviously knows the horse and despite the prohibitive price i'm finding it hard to oppose him. BYFORD could be the one that gives him the most to think about , one from one here , winning here lto on his handicap debut over 1m2f , by a comfortable looking 1/2 length , Jason Hart in the saddle and he's 2/2 on the horse and this is his only booked ride of the day which could well be a little hint in itself , like Caribeno he looks to be an improving sort and in all honesty although i really cant see the Prescott horse losing , i think at the price Byford is well worth a saver.

1.30 Lingfield - Wake Up Harry 1 Point Win @ 9/4 (Paddy P)
An open looking race where a few look to hold chances but my preference is for Simon Dow's WAKE UP HARRY , the only CD winner in the race , won a maiden by 2 lengths over todays CD last time out , and looked value for further imho , Callum Shepherd rode him to that victory and is re- united with the horse today and i don't think they'll be far away in the hunt for the follow up.

3.50 Lingfield - Sir Hector 0.5 Point EW @ 6/1 (365)
SIR HECTOR comes into this race in good , solid looking form , won his last two races of 2020 and has been placed in all 4 starts so far this term - 3,3,2,2 .. He's 2 from 3 over CD and has 3 wins and 3 places from 8 starts overall at the course , so it looks to me as though he likes it round here. A couple of others come into this with equally pressing claims in my eyes by i do think he's worth a small each way to nothing , with a chance of getting his head in front , the reason i've only gone 1/2 point each way is the race is only 7 runners , and lets face it how many times does your horse come 3rd in these , if it had been 8+ runners i would of happily had a point ew but as it is i'm happy enough to go with the minimum in the hope he can keep running as he has been and finish in the first two.

6.15 Wolverhampton - Sea The Shells 2 Point Win @ 8/15 (365)
Sorry to say another shortie (if you see my other threads you know i much prefer bigger odds but for this im basing it mainly on the course form) but i really do have difficulty in seeing SEA THE SHELLS getting turned over here , made his racecourse debut just over three weeks ago over todays CD (only CD winner in the race by the way) and slammed Reverential by 6 1/2 lengths , that could of been further but he was eased down towards the end , if he turns up in anything like the same form i really can't see him beaten , and i have to say he really has to win if he's to justify his Derby entry . Franny Norton on board (rode him on debut victory) and i think they'll be 2 from 2 come the end of the race.

Staked - 7 Points
 

mick

Sire
Sean Sean good read above and best of for the thread. Horses for courses is prob the oldest racing adage of the lot but has stood the test of time, and its worth has played a part in my punt today Ling 2.05 Mohareb. I do not use it as a starting point but relevant course form is always good to have on side as part of. :)
 

Sean

Gelding
Cheers mlmrob mlmrob , mick mick , much appreciated . Hopefully doing a little write up for each selection will help keep me focused on the job in hand :handgestures-thumbup:

mick mick , i dont usually use it as a starting point tbh mate , but always like to see 'CD' by a horses name , gives me that extra bit of confidence i think . Think i did something similiar to this on your forum and was chugging along nicely when i stopped :) , and always remember one particular horse , whose name escapes me , who was a Southwell specialist , from like 35 runs it had only been unplaced about 3 times .. and it was 33s when i posted and it won at 50s lol , you cant let a horse who so obviously likes a track to go unbacked especially at prices like that lol couple of those on this one would be very nice .. best of today with Mohareb :handgestures-thumbup:
 

mick

Sire
Sean Sean attempting to share your reasoning for backing one is never an easy ask, but the benefits are two fold as firstly it will increase the interest of other members who will then be more likely to actively participate in your thread, and secondly as you say it will help your focus and personal understanding while composing it.

I tend to do mine in advance and posted my Mohareb reasoning on another part of the forum on Wen. As you will see i have already mugged off myself by taking some of the WH 8/1 aval at the time, but will be topping up at the current bigger prices.

Fri 12th Ling 2.05 : Mohareb @ 8/1

A 7 fur 0-95 with 9 run. Mohareb last won Dec 2019 and arrives here on a LR 15 so not a positive starting point. But having looked at each of those races he was not a possible for myself in any, and as one Mick to another i would say some less astute entries from said other played a part although Tbf the BHA also had a hand in it as the animal spent all of last year racing in the OR Nineties.

Ling clearly suits with two of his three previous wins obtained here including his most recent over this CD, but the last time he contested same was 10Jan20 when off a 7lbs higher mark in a 0-105 he was only done a Nk and a repeat of this would make him the winner here. During his 14 outings since he has run some decent races under unfavorable circumstances which suggests that he has not regressed.

He shows top off my ratings @ +1 and contests off a 2lb lower mark than his last win with a very decent 8-11 physical. He has the looks of one placed to win and it might be an additional sign of serious intention that the stable had also declared another at the 4 day dec stage the lto winner Spring Romance who is now a N/r. Rawlinson gets the ride and has been on top for all of the 5yo previous wins.

I cannot see his 4 box preventing and the only real concern i have is that he has yet to win one of these 0-95 grades, but he has gone close in better grades off higher marks and this coupled with an anticipated backers price will justify the play........WH have just opened @ 8/1 which in a field of nine appears fair so snagging some of this will do for starters.
 
Great write up Sean Sean , best of luck with these. I also consider CD form as very important.

Regarding the 1:00 at Lingfield, I had looked at this race and tried to see if I could find anything to beat Caribeno, but couldn’t make a strong enough case for anything else so decided that market has probably got this right.
 

Sean

Gelding
Friday 12th March

1.00 Lingfield - Caribeno 2 Point Win @ 1/2 (Paddy P) Unplaced / Byford 1 Point Win @ 10/3 (365 , Will Hill , Lads) Unplaced
CARIBENO comes into this race in fine fettle , winning his last 6 starts and he looks to be one of those 'typical' Mark Prescott improvers that the trainer seems to do so well with , last 2 victories have come here , and is 3 from 3 at Leafy , with two of those being over todays distance of 1m4f , won last time by 1 1/4 lengths and was always in control of the race , and i really don't think a 5lb penalty is going to stop him achieving the 7 timer if i'm being honest , Luke Morris is in the plate and he's 5 wins from 6 rides to date so obviously knows the horse and despite the prohibitive price i'm finding it hard to oppose him. BYFORD could be the one that gives him the most to think about , one from one here , winning here lto on his handicap debut over 1m2f , by a comfortable looking 1/2 length , Jason Hart in the saddle and he's 2/2 on the horse and this is his only booked ride of the day which could well be a little hint in itself , like Caribeno he looks to be an improving sort and in all honesty although i really cant see the Prescott horse losing , i think at the price Byford is well worth a saver.

1.30 Lingfield - Wake Up Harry 1 Point Win @ 9/4 (Paddy P) Unplaced
An open looking race where a few look to hold chances but my preference is for Simon Dow's WAKE UP HARRY , the only CD winner in the race , won a maiden by 2 lengths over todays CD last time out , and looked value for further imho , Callum Shepherd rode him to that victory and is re- united with the horse today and i don't think they'll be far away in the hunt for the follow up.

3.50 Lingfield - Sir Hector 0.5 Point EW @ 6/1 (365) Unplaced
SIR HECTOR comes into this race in good , solid looking form , won his last two races of 2020 and has been placed in all 4 starts so far this term - 3,3,2,2 .. He's 2 from 3 over CD and has 3 wins and 3 places from 8 starts overall at the course , so it looks to me as though he likes it round here. A couple of others come into this with equally pressing claims in my eyes by i do think he's worth a small each way to nothing , with a chance of getting his head in front , the reason i've only gone 1/2 point each way is the race is only 7 runners , and lets face it how many times does your horse come 3rd in these , if it had been 8+ runners i would of happily had a point ew but as it is i'm happy enough to go with the minimum in the hope he can keep running as he has been and finish in the first two.

6.15 Wolverhampton - Sea The Shells 2 Point Win @ 8/15 (365) :handgestures-thumbup: 1st
Sorry to say another shortie (if you see my other threads you know i much prefer bigger odds but for this im basing it mainly on the course form) but i really do have difficulty in seeing SEA THE SHELLS getting turned over here , made his racecourse debut just over three weeks ago over todays CD (only CD winner in the race by the way) and slammed Reverential by 6 1/2 lengths , that could of been further but he was eased down towards the end , if he turns up in anything like the same form i really can't see him beaten , and i have to say he really has to win if he's to justify his Derby entry . Franny Norton on board (rode him on debut victory) and i think they'll be 2 from 2 come the end of the race.

Staked - 7 Points

On The Day
Returns - 3.07 Points
-3.93 Points

Running Total -3.93 Points
 

Sean

Gelding
Saturday 13th March

12.55 Wolverhampton - Poetic Force 0.5 Point EW @ 12/1 (Will Hill)
Trainer A Carroll has been amongst the winners (and placers) lately and he sends two out today , one over the sticks at Sandown , and POETIC FORCE on the flat. I think Poetic Force can be forgiven his latest run when 9th of 10 at Lingfield and is better judged on his two other runs this term when fourth and third respectively. Has won 4 times here at Lingfield , and placed once from 8 starts (all 4 wins over todays CD) , i have to say others come into the race with better claims but at the 12/1 on offer with Hills i think he's worth an each way punt.

2.25 Sandown - Malaya 1 Point EW @ 14/1 (Will Hill) / Eamon An Cnoic 0.5 Point EW @ 20/1 (Paddy P)
Like the look of two in The Imperial Cup , first up is Paul Nicholls MALAYA , who won this race a couple of years ago in 2019 , so obviously knows whats expected and has the assistance of the excellent Bryony Frost from the saddle , at a decent each way price you couldnt honestly rule this one out. The other is EAMON AN CNOIC who comes into this in decent form , last 3 races - 2,1,2 , the win coming over todays CD , trainer David Pipe is going well at the moment and you couldnt write off anything he saddles at the moment in all honesty and it would be no surprise to see the horse run well. Jockey Fergus Gillard has a win and 2 places from his 3 rides aboard the horse and though its obviously a difficult race to weigh up i think these two hold decent chances at nice prices.

3.50 Wolverhampton - The Rutland Rebel 1 Point Win @ 5/2 (365)
THE RUTLAND REBEL comes in to this in the midst of a purple patch , won last two races and is looking for the 3 timer , and in all honesty could well get it. Battered the opposition last time out by 3 1/4 lengths over 1m6f here , and before that won over CD beating Fleur Irlandaise by a length and a quarter , that makes the horse 1 from 1 over CD and 2 from 3 at the course , 4th on his other run here. Billy Garritty partnered the horse to those 2 victories here making it a 50% strike rate when the horse and jock pair up. Micky Hammond send just this one out today and should be on the premises.

5.50 Chelmsford - Alminoor 1 Point EW @ 8/1 (365)
ALMINOOR has been holding his form well , coming 3rd in his last 3 races , two of which have been class 3's including last time out so this see's him taking a drop in class today. From his 2 runs over CD he has a win and place to his name , whilst pilot Jason Hart is 2 wins and a place from his 5 rides on the horse. Alminoor had 2 wins from 4 runs last year and he's continued that decent form into this year imo , and i can see him being involved at the business end of things.

7.20 Chelmsford - Jack The Truth 2 Point Win @ 9/2 (Paddy P)
JACK THE TRUTH comes into this on the back of a solid last time out win over CD , making his record over todays CD 4 wins and 2 places from 8 runs , his overall figures here read - 1,5,2,3,5,1,1,3,1 so definatley seems to like it round here and with the bang in form Hollie Doyle booked for the first time i'd say the trainers intentions are pretty clear.

9 Points Staked

Overall -3.93 Points
 

Sean

Gelding
Saturday 13th March

12.55 Wolverhampton - Poetic Force 0.5 Point EW @ 12/1 (Will Hill)
Trainer A Carroll has been amongst the winners (and placers) lately and he sends two out today , one over the sticks at Sandown , and POETIC FORCE on the flat. I think Poetic Force can be forgiven his latest run when 9th of 10 at Lingfield and is better judged on his two other runs this term when fourth and third respectively. Has won 4 times here at Lingfield , and placed once from 8 starts (all 4 wins over todays CD) , i have to say others come into the race with better claims but at the 12/1 on offer with Hills i think he's worth an each way punt.

2.25 Sandown - Malaya 1 Point EW @ 14/1 (Will Hill) / Eamon An Cnoic 0.5 Point EW @ 20/1 (Paddy P)
Like the look of two in The Imperial Cup , first up is Paul Nicholls MALAYA , who won this race a couple of years ago in 2019 , so obviously knows whats expected and has the assistance of the excellent Bryony Frost from the saddle , at a decent each way price you couldnt honestly rule this one out. The other is EAMON AN CNOIC who comes into this in decent form , last 3 races - 2,1,2 , the win coming over todays CD , trainer David Pipe is going well at the moment and you couldnt write off anything he saddles at the moment in all honesty and it would be no surprise to see the horse run well. Jockey Fergus Gillard has a win and 2 places from his 3 rides aboard the horse and though its obviously a difficult race to weigh up i think these two hold decent chances at nice prices.

3.50 Wolverhampton - The Rutland Rebel 1 Point Win @ 5/2 (365)
THE RUTLAND REBEL comes in to this in the midst of a purple patch , won last two races and is looking for the 3 timer , and in all honesty could well get it. Battered the opposition last time out by 3 1/4 lengths over 1m6f here , and before that won over CD beating Fleur Irlandaise by a length and a quarter , that makes the horse 1 from 1 over CD and 2 from 3 at the course , 4th on his other run here. Billy Garritty partnered the horse to those 2 victories here making it a 50% strike rate when the horse and jock pair up. Micky Hammond send just this one out today and should be on the premises.

5.50 Chelmsford - Alminoor 1 Point EW @ 8/1 (365) :handgestures-thumbup: 2nd
ALMINOOR has been holding his form well , coming 3rd in his last 3 races , two of which have been class 3's including last time out so this see's him taking a drop in class today. From his 2 runs over CD he has a win and place to his name , whilst pilot Jason Hart is 2 wins and a place from his 5 rides on the horse. Alminoor had 2 wins from 4 runs last year and he's continued that decent form into this year imo , and i can see him being involved at the business end of things.

7.20 Chelmsford - Jack The Truth 2 Point Win @ 9/2 (Paddy P)
JACK THE TRUTH comes into this on the back of a solid last time out win over CD , making his record over todays CD 4 wins and 2 places from 8 runs , his overall figures here read - 1,5,2,3,5,1,1,3,1 so definatley seems to like it round here and with the bang in form Hollie Doyle booked for the first time i'd say the trainers intentions are pretty clear.

9 Points Staked

Overall -3.93 Points

On The Day
Returns - 3.00 Points
-6.00 Points

Overall - 9.93 Points
 

Sean

Gelding
Disappointing today tbh with it being worse in a way by Alminoor getting done by a head , that one gets its head in front and this shows a profit for the day
 

Sean

Gelding
Nothing for Sunday 14th March .. quite like the look of Albert Camus (4.33 Lingfield) and 3.42 Warwick - Volcano and Rose Of Aghaboe but decided to swerve them
 

Sandhog

Filly
I'm starting to think ( after decades of trying :)) Sean Sean ,
that jockeys are key to many of our problems: they can defy "systems".

I refer to Holly Doyle and Ryan Moore - both very good, imo, but, they sure mess my calcs up if I include them out!

As it happens, and unusually, for a saturday, I got through OK yesterday with bets at Wolverhampton, but, largely bc I dutch in most races I bet in.
Seriously, I think I'd do better just waiting and backing certain jockeys and trainers in certain races - the ones I think they want.

Anyway, keep up the good work, and, sorry to tell ya I've had a small bet on AC (4.33 Lingfield), so that's spragged ya again! :D
Nothing more; having a rest today. Ain't even going to bother watching any racing.

All the best.
 
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