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Hong Kong Speed Figures

The only reason I may be open, is because I don't have any reason to keep to myself these days.
When I was betting for myself, it was mostly all done on course, and nobody knew I even existed.

I kind of think if it helps somebody see how you do things, then it helps you too, as it's good for the ego!
And even if I don't play any more(except for peanuts), horse racing is more interesting than chess.
Plus I have something wrong with my eyes(fixable but not yet quite bad enough to operate), that makes me reluctant to drive the 100k each way where the wildlife I like is.

I can also recall having an exchange with Mordin many years ago, and although I can't remember using any of his stuff, he went into a very detailed explanation of how he did it.
There was no reason that he had to do that, but he did, so maybe a bit of him, rubbed off on me.
 
Outlander said:
When you are establishing standard times for sections my first thought was do them in the same way as you do the standard times for the overall race , you do this and they don’t add up to the overall standard time and I just thought immediately that wasn’t satisfactory, maybe I’m wrong ?
For the overall standards I adjust every time by every horse for class, weight and estimated going allowance with calibration to average 0 going on good going, if you iterate enough times the going allowance changes and the adjusted times group together and the going allowance gets more accurate and you are left with no fast outliers and a list of adjusted times for each CD, when I have these adjusted times I use a low percentile to calculate the standard time maybe 2.5%, then I calculate what the standard time would be if i used say 15%.
Then I look at all the adjusted times I used that were within this 15% (remember they are adjusted for class to it’s not just the fastest times it’s the fastest v expectation) so I now have the top 15% of times adjusted for all factors and I use those to calculate the optimum ratio for each section, from that I can then calculate the standard time for each section or combination of sections as ratio * 2.5% standard.
I don’t think there is a textbook describing how to calculate standard times, so just my way of doing it.
I have a python script now that does all this for me for U.K. tracks when I feed it data , it has all my calculations and does the iterations and reports back the standards times, when I have all the sectional data I will incorporate that into my UK script, but I only started looking at U.K. again recently , more interested in HK.
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I'm struggling with time (too many races) at this moment so i'll just answer the bit about sectional times, I guess I always talk in quartiles of data etc, this is in Final Times and applies for sectionals, imagine HV1000 you have the top25% performances that have had at least two runs for argument's sake, so now I have applied a filter to start, so now I test that cohort of runners at HV1200 an make sure they have at least 2 runs again so now that is narrowing the group down further , but I also want to now know if that HV1000 cohort did their times slot them at HV1200 slot them into Q1 at HV1200 now if they went a lot slower and slipped down into the Q2 or Q3 group I don't want those runners contaminating my Ratios , that is the foundation of my approach and why my overall times will never equate to the sectional times. so I'm not saying use 25% that my start point, as you see certain filters start applying and then the sample does get smaller.
 
Oh and I would never write a book, because I think it would be presumptious of me, and a page or two would not be much reading.
I probably should not say it, but I wish Brohamer had those thoughts before he wrote MPH.
I used to buy all the books and that would be my least favourite, but the syndicate boss I was doing stuff for, told me I should read it, as he thought it may give me some ideas.
I did start it, but it's still in mint condition.
I guess Beyer is still my favourite.
 
woof43 said:
what do you mean by compare Steve, is that looking at the results of tonights races looking at them at a later date?
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StuartH put some times up, and I just meant that I would compare them to the other times, people have put up.
I think(but not sure) that he derived those times from that graphic that he posted of woods time method, and then removed.

I can't price the races myself anymore, because I stopped collecting HK date in January.
 
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StephenJB said:
StuartH put some times up, and I just meant that I would compare them to the other times, people have put up.
I think(but not sure) that he derived those times from that graphic that he posted of woods time method, and then removed.

I can't price the races myself anymore, because I stopped collecting HK date in January.
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I was thinking along the lines you may have a set of expected times as a comparison for tonights races, I have not run any stuff in the new season yet but will shortly
 
woof43 said:
I'm struggling with time (too many races) at this moment so i'll just answer the bit about sectional times, I guess I always talk in quartiles of data etc, this is in Final Times and applies for sectionals, imagine HV1000 you have the top25% performances that have had at least two runs for argument's sake, so now I have applied a filter to start, so now I test that cohort of runners at HV1200 an make sure they have at least 2 runs again so now that is narrowing the group down further , but I also want to now know if that HV1000 cohort did their times slot them at HV1200 slot them into Q1 at HV1200 now if they went a lot slower and slipped down into the Q2 or Q3 group I don't want those runners contaminating my Ratios , that is the foundation of my approach and why my overall times will never equate to the sectional times. so I'm not saying use 25% that my start point, as you see certain filters start applying and then the sample does get smaller.
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I think you know already from previous posts on this thread that I’m mot suggesting my methods are best, I very much doubt they are, been fascinated by posts you have put up with your methods, but from all the guys on this thread I have the least capacity to understand coding or even mathematics, I mentioned before I was a full time punter for 22 years doing the in-running, I hardly bet now and like S StephenJB said more the puzzle for me, unemployable and don’t have large funds to risk. I know from reading posts by yourself and D desimal last season that you both would be able to solve the puzzle better than myself, I just like creating figures and understanding the racing as a hobby. Maybe if HK was on betfair i would start taking punting seriously again.
 
desimal said:
One last thing I wanted to note: R8 Audacious Pursuit is sitting 18.0 early tote, that race he was in end of last season not only rated huge on my end but strong form out of it with Le Zonda and Fortunate Son getting backed and winning already this season (the latter twice), also Glittering Legend was also backed in on the weekend. I think the big guys agree this is a pretty hot form he's coming out of. Oh and Audacious Pursuit's trial was great I thought with the way he ran on.
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Yes this is it, is the difference, someone who knows what he’s doing, superb yet again
 
Outlander said:
Yes this is it, is the difference, someone who knows what he’s doing, superb yet again
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Too kind. Also thanks for the follow on X 😂

This high rating race from last season producing yet another winner: Results - Racing Information - Horse Racing - The Hong Kong Jockey Club

Quite a few from this race get backed by teams late every start (Glittering Legend, Shamus Storm without winning - and 3 others backed and winning, including Fortunate Son 2x wins for now 4 total).
 
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desimal said:
Too kind. Also thanks for the follow on X 😂

This high rating race from last season producing yet another winner: Results - Racing Information - Horse Racing - The Hong Kong Jockey Club

The top 5 from this race get backed by teams late every start (Glittering Legend, Shamus Storm without winning - and the others backed and winning, including Fortunate Son 2x wins).
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Through gritted teeth as I had the runner up rated favourite ended up 66 on the tote, gets pipped by yours, small stake ew return but I took 25/1 so even took the wrong price, 2 seconds today for me only. Decision Link my other go.
 
Outlander said:
Through gritted teeth as I had the runner up rated favourite ended up 66 on the tote, gets pipped by yours, small stake ew return but I took 25/1 so even took the wrong price, 2 seconds today for me only. Decision Link my other go.
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Ah yes you did too, well done. I had in my head Rising Phoenix was a 1400m horse but he ran great there. Maybe it's more he just needs a good tempo.
 
Outlander said:
My stuff poor today, didn’t see most of the winners at all.
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A few you had rated 2nd won (Golden Fortune, Absolute Honour, Kwai Chung Talents) and then 3 of your top raters ran 2nd (Live Wire, Phoenix, Target Audience).
Money for others like Winning Money and Decision Link were plunged late.

I think No Other Choice will have to pull up with a vet issue? Too bad to be true.
 
Outlander said:
My stuff poor today, didn’t see most of the winners at all.
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Have no worries around the performance of "one day" or "week" or "month" Mike, means nothing in the long term/big scheme.
Your new HK app/site is very impressive. Easy to navigate as well, and some real work behind those figures knowing you. Massive well done mate :clap:

With the rise of commercial AI there has been a spate of these new AI based racing websites at least for UK/Irish racing with some looking better than others. Some are just glorified tipping websites and have the usual bookmaker affilates and adverts on-site. Don't know if it's a good thing or a bad thing. On the one hand i'm thinking of more younger folk being attracted to the game which it badly needs but on the other side of that i'm thinking if your model is just basically asking ChatGPT for "the winner" then your not going to be around for too long.
For new blood to remain it needs some education.
 
woof43 said:
I was thinking along the lines you may have a set of expected times as a comparison for tonights races, I have not run any stuff in the new season yet but will shortly
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No because I can't scrape the race fields any more, as my code stopped working.
That Sohil Patel the racequant guy offered to give me anything I wanted to help, but I said no because I didn't care that I could not do it.
He is another bloke that helped me a lot.
 
StuartH said:
View attachment 172267
S StephenJB O Outlander The Hare The Hare W woof43 D desimal

Standards I use for HKJC (AWoods) formulas
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I think they are all reasonable too.
The actual time is less important than the relationships between the times you have IMO.
What I find interesting is that I have seen the times from all you guys, and they all look ok to me.
At the end of the day though, it's not my opinion that matters, hopefully they help you making your probs or selections.
 

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One other thing to note is that who says mine are the most accurate?
I should have also done..... if the times of you guys are 100 what would mine be.
 

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