Hong Kong Speed Figures
- Thread starter The Hare
- Start date
Just for interest i was looking at this runner called Fight Time R3 #2 on Sunday, I have just posted its last four runs but thought i'd include just a width time calculation I'll post a couple of other tables shortly.
The idea being that you need to find the least distorted time so that becomes your baseline, the majority of extra distance covered at Sha Tin occurs in the 2nd last 400m so the adjustments are just based on the reciprocal of runners time thru that section
Just based on its last start the raw time, I thought i'd dig further down into it's figures, its sectionals also tell a story
these are the raw times
The idea being that you need to find the least distorted time so that becomes your baseline, the majority of extra distance covered at Sha Tin occurs in the 2nd last 400m so the adjustments are just based on the reciprocal of runners time thru that section
| Row | LR Time | WIDTH_TIME | Adj to baseline | Ability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 82.966 | 1.072 | –0.527 | 82.439 |
| 2 | 82.273 | 0.715 | –0.170 | 82.103 |
| 3 | 82.604 | 0.880 | –0.335 | 82.269 |
| 4 | 82.072 | 0.545 | 0 | 82.072 |
| 5 | 82.438 | 1.095 | –0.550 | 81.888 |
these are the raw times
Last edited:
The Hare
Mare
Sorry so late reading this D desimal this is excellent and the way I should do it. Should have a little more time now so will have a go for Wednesday.I did an early look at form last night over a few drinks, tonight have gone back for my second pass. I'll loosely go off early tote prices on horses I may want to back if fixed odds offers similar or ones I might get value on tote.
I've been doing pretty alright lately especially at HV, so I'll try get at least some basic thoughts out before meetings if its of value for anyone or even simply for my own thinking out loud. So here are the horses who are of interest to me, for if anyone cares, or if you have a counterpoint as to why they might be bait would love to hear it.
R2
Golden Friendship - not many horses have as many forgive runs as this guy over L3 months of racing. Has gone green or brown (late odds changes from pros) almost every run, a notablbe exception his 1200 run on Feb 25 - and it's no surprise he is best at 1000. But at a low enough mark and nice map that think can push the 1200. I don't mind the rider change, Bentley hasn't done much with him.
Glaciated -if can get big odds.
Honest Witness did steal his last win with a good ride, got a nice gap on the pack and Britney was holding the other horses up sitting too far back as the next horse in line. Good horse but always suspiciosus about backing a horse that had favours like that. THAT SAID the trial was very good.
R3
Romantic Fantasy + Star Brose both look very appealing, however at odds
Packing Hurricane perfect trip for him, just not sure how he'll go with the freshen.
Agenda had a lot of money support last time he raced HV2200 with horses like Liveandletlive and The Auspicious in the race (i.e WAY harder), but that was up in class and sometimes the low weight up there is more beneficial at 2200 than an easier race down in class.
Big watch on whether Agenda gets market support.
R4
Crossborderdude seems obvious for at least a save
Winning Now back to 1200 great, probably be my main play.
Find My Love looks very short on the early tote, I like this horse and it's a real winning chance, but it has been double digits most starts due to its racing style. Would have to drift a bit I think.
Ace Power 1st turf run since switching to MARK NEWHNAM. Tricky horses to catch though. Showed some merit on those AW runs.
R5
looks a simple Q/Tri with 2-5-8.
Superb King is one horse Britney can probably ride just going straight forward, and claim will help him. Probably expecting 2 or 5 to win and 8 to place.
R6
Vivacious Win - looks the good thing of the day.
Beauty Viva had a very short SP against these last time, could bounce back.
Another Zonda dangerous at this mark but his trainer has no idea what to do with him, will show up to one of these races one day and just win.
Thought Mighty Steed had none, out of an easier race, wider draw.
R7
Bottomuptogether looks the good thing here.
Magic Control at a great mark, will be including in exotics or perhaps betting PLACE only.
Colourful King finally gets a good draw here and his C/D record is only good with low draws. Was forgive last time. BUT he's the type of horses I'd only save on.
Not sure what to do with Stellar Express but might get too much contention for lead with some of these others lower in the W around 2 bends here compared to ST.
Glowing Praises has BRITNEY at short odds early so that's a NOPE.
R8
Giant Ballon looks the obvious, new horse with blinkers.
Meowth ran in inferior ground last time, looks great for exotics, PLACE bets.
Happy Index very solid and even Flying Wrote all his best form is with low draws. Still prefer Meowth over him with the weight swings from some of their previous starts.
Embrace Aberdeen actually beat Giant Ballon home in Feb, now gets huge weight turnaround on him as well, but that was at Sha Tin and, as noted Giant Ballon has had blinkers applied since then so I'm essentially treating him like a new horses. Any other situation those weight swings would have me backing Embrace Aberdeen.
But probably would just bet Giant Ballon to keep it simple.
R9
Armor Golden Eagle - horror watch last time, big late money plunge, another good draw & Purton.
Withallmyfaith - so many bad rides going too fast in front at HV, finally gets his jockey change. This horse has been getting plunged in some serious HV C3 races with MAX QUE, Silvery Breeze etc.
Q on both of them.
Fantastic Fun was good last time but had perfect trip.
Viva Graciousness has BRITNEY so that's a pen in a compeititve race like this.
Lucky Twin Stars - did go brown lamped last time, started $13 in a strong race, but caught wide no cover. MAYBE worth backing if 20++
Corleone/Stormi both honest, might be too hard a race for them.
Anyway that's how I'm feeling about the card.
yes, just looking thru the race now, my baseline expected times for five of the runners prior to sectionals and draw, makes for an interesting race.
wouldn't have been on my radar but the horse was 221 in class 5 all CD until flop last time , mentioned wide throughout, i like it has showed something useful in trial since. See it currently liked on HK tote.
this horse Hot Delight exposes a weakness in my ratings, horse is rated 81 but must run from 85 as out of the handicap, visually very impressive horse and been 1.4 and 1.2 backed to exclusion of all others, my ratings cant get it to the 85 except the last 400m section last time topped 85.
Its obvious this horse will be crazy short odds again currently 1.9 , ceiling not been reached but i cant get it anywhere near 1.9 without i big leap of faith so screws up any fair odds assessment for the race for me.
i notice the anomaly from race #442
Looking Bright close 2nd looks great now, horse maybe has problems, bled in the past , but one of only a few that hasn't won since, although only 5th next time was beaten only 0.07 seconds behind 3 others from race #442, and only run since lost a front plate, and won a trial comfortably since, so maybe a chance, City Gold Banner who started favourite only other one who has disappointed.
must be more than 10 winners come from this now
Looking Bright close 2nd looks great now, horse maybe has problems, bled in the past , but one of only a few that hasn't won since, although only 5th next time was beaten only 0.07 seconds behind 3 others from race #442, and only run since lost a front plate, and won a trial comfortably since, so maybe a chance, City Gold Banner who started favourite only other one who has disappointed.
must be more than 10 winners come from this now
AI reading my data You'd think Hot Delight starts longer.
You’re reading this race exactly the way a jockey would walk the map in their head.
Let me lay it out in race-shape terms.
1. The key structural problem: speed vs draw
pick one scenario (e.g. “7 crosses, 2/3 hold, 11 lands 1 off”) and we walk through who that actually sets the race up for given their 68.x ability figures.
You’re reading this race exactly the way a jockey would walk the map in their head.
Let me lay it out in race-shape terms.
1. The key structural problem: speed vs draw
- Main early speed:
7, 8, 9 — genuine pace, but all drawn wide. - Hot Delight (11):
Drawn outside 4, 5, 6 but inside 7–9. - Inside must-go horses:
2 Crimson Flash, 3 (needs to be forward and inside). - Others you named:
4 Patch Of Stars, 5 Young Champion, 6 Bulb General, 11 Hot Delight. - So the tension is:
- Wide speed (7–9) trying to cross
vs
2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 11 all needing some piece of the first 6–7 in running. - That’s how races get messy.
2. Likely early battle
Given your S1 profiles and the 0.15‑per‑length rule:
- 7–9 can cross on raw speed, but they must burn to do it.
- 2 & 3 must kick up or they’re buried and dead.
- Hot Delight (11) is in the pressure pocket:
- If it jumps well, it can land 1 off / 2 pairs back.
- If it’s even slightly slow, it gets posted or shuffled.
- 2 and/or 3 to be ridden positively to hold the fence.
- At least one of 7–9 to be forced to sit 3 wide if they all go.
- Hot Delight trying to track the “winner’s lane” — behind 2/3/4/5 rather than duelling with 7–9.
3. Who the draw hurts most
- Worst off: 7–9
- Their early-speed edge is taxed by the draw.
- They either burn across (and pay late) or sit wide.
- Knife-edge: Hot Delight (11)
- Needs a clean jump and a decisive ride.
- Best scenario: lands just behind 2/3/4/5, with 7–9 stuck wider.
- Must use draw: 2 Crimson Flash, 3
- If they don’t punch up and hold spots, they’re buried and useless.
- Their whole race is decided in the first 150m.
4. Big-picture shape
Everything you’ve said points to:- Genuine to fast tempo early (too many that need to be there).
- High risk of 3‑wide line involving at least one of 7–9.
- Hot Delightis very trip‑dependent:
- Right ride → perfect stalking map.
- Wrong ride → posted or cluttered behind stopping speed.
pick one scenario (e.g. “7 crosses, 2/3 hold, 11 lands 1 off”) and we walk through who that actually sets the race up for given their 68.x ability figures.