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Hong Kong Speed Figures
- Thread starter The Hare
- Start date
last night the wind had some effect on the race shapes, they definitely knew betting wisenot up to date with the thread , been trying to improve my ratings to account for each section for race tailored going allowance brought on by that 6/4/26 wind effected meeting.
Wednesday attached
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John Size frustrates me , he seems to be able to get perfectly healthy horses to run like millepedes with gout in trials and in races looking most of the time like they are finished then a Lazarus style revival you can’t take every run on merit, horses have cycles , newer form is more reliable than older form etc, when calculating day of race chance horses that have finished near last 3 latest efforts can’t just be forgiven if they have form 5 runs ago and treated like they are definitely going to spring back, that Must Go yesterday how do you rate that one, leading comtender if you ignore 3 or so pathetic efforts, how does Size make them look so bad, I remember him running Helios Express in a trial and the horse looking like it couldn’t raise a gallop tailed off, days later it’s storming into second behind Ka Ying Rising, how does he do it.
I hav'nt wagered nor kept data on the awt races, this year so didn't follow those races last night , if your running an mcsim, you need a stdev and you need to know what their upper and lower bounds are or have fast or slow they have run or may run, sometimes that the only way I feel they get into the marketJohn Size frustrates me , he seems to be able to get perfectly healthy horses to run like millepedes with gout in trials and in races looking most of the time like they are finished then a Lazarus style revival you can’t take every run on merit, horses have cycles , newer form is more reliable than older form etc, when calculating day of race chance horses that have finished near last 3 latest efforts can’t just be forgiven if they have form 5 runs ago and treated like they are definitely going to spring back, that Must Go yesterday how do you rate that one, leading comtender if you ignore 3 or so pathetic efforts, how does Size make them look so bad, I remember him running Helios Express in a trial and the horse looking like it couldn’t raise a gallop tailed off, days later it’s storming into second behind Ka Ying Rising, how does he do it.
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