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Hong Kong Speed Figures

I very read that work to a certain standard but what does it mean in reality ?
Well in my opinion it has to be very nuanced for all manner of reasons not least of which is some horses are either "morning wonders" or otherwise " don't do a tap" on the gallops, my worry here with this trial is on the one hand they were nowhere near flat out but the fact that three of them dominated makes me believe that it was a serious gallop and the dominance wasn't really there on the day.
would say quite serious, not a race but a good trail, Ka Ying Rising no dominance as you say T tacker , certainly looked no more impressive than the trial winner. For me i would be concerned because the horse always impresses even in trials, NZ , AUS as Mr Express and HK always trialled impressively ,this did not give his usual vibe.
 
SHA TIN 12/10/2025 R10 URANUS STAR never raced in HK but 4/1 ...
R5R6R9R10
ELEGANT LIFEFIGHT TIMESKY TRUSTJUNEAU PRIDE
VON BAERPEARL OF PANG'STOMODACHI KOKOROESOLID WIN
BUNTA BABYHAPPY UNIVERSELADY'S CHOICEIGOR STRAVINSKY
GOOD FORTUNEBEAUTY MISSILEDANCING CODESUGAR BALL
CLUB ACEGOOD GOODAERIS NOVASTAR MAC
OLDTOWNGLORIOUS SUCCESSMASTEROFMYUNIVERSETIN FOOK
WAVE GARDENDASHING DRAGONMID WINTER WINDMASTER OF ALL
INVICTUS DRAGONPRESTIGE RICKYYOUNG CHAMPIONSKY HEART
VOYAGE BOSSMEGA FORCEBRAVE STARTHE RED HARE
GIDDY UPTURF PHOENIXBABY CRYSTALANOTHER WORLD
LUCKY MCQUEENMATSU VICTORGORGEOUS WINCOLOURFUL KNIGHT
BULL ATTITUDEWONDER KITLEGENDARY YEARS
ROMANTIC FANTASYLIM'S SHAVANO
 
R10 URANUS STAR never raced in HK but 4/1 .
2-1 race record in AUS
1-2-1 trial record in HK (Purton on all 3)
Purton rides
Looking at my ratings above he ranks 2nd overall and 1st in barrier trials ( the only metric I can rate him on)
Quite unusual for first timer in class 3 to have best barrier trial rating.
Currently 4.7
Not for me at those odds, but I can see why popular.
 
2-1 race record in AUS
1-2-1 trial record in HK (Purton on all 3)
Purton rides
Looking at my ratings above he ranks 2nd overall and 1st in barrier trials ( the only metric I can rate him on)
Quite unusual for first timer in class 3 to have best barrier trial rating.
Currently 4.7
Not for me at those odds, but I can see why popular.
Purton newcomers and ridden them in trials is something to check out, but I imagine a very high strike rate.
 
Now have weight and non weight rating sup to date, speed figures not.

Card for Wednesday and results. A slight change on the results for the sectional positions. Decided to remove the ones for the 200m splits in the last 800m. So now as they appear on the results on HKJC but mine are using times so some equal on mine. Apologies if this causes any problems, they are the figures in grey at the end of the daya and I have removed the ones that were in orange on past sheets.
 

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HV today
SPD been going ok but for 2nd top raters more than top rated. Think they are about £150 up for £1 stake from 90 races for 2nd top, loss from top rated.
Changed the SCT ratings on this final sheet, still derived from same base ratings, but think this is a better way to use them, we will see if any improvement.
Jockey and Trainer ratings from last 200 runs HK only
hoping I have improved my pace figures
before they were more a distribution early v late
now I’m trying to get a picture of who will lead at the 400m pole EP
and then the LP just a guide to last 400m speed

1760522542711.png
 
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HV 15/10/2025 Lot of changes in the ML MODEL
R2R3R4R5R6R8
GLORIOUS JOURNEYJOLLY COMPANIONGOLDEN FRIENDSHIPSMART CITYMR DESIRASUPER INFINITY
CHAIN OF GOLDDANCING CLASSICSSIGHT HAPPYFANTASTIC FUNTOURBILLON GOLFERKING MILES
NORTHERN BEASTTELECOM POWERTHE PERFECT MATCHSUNDAY'S SERENADEFIND MY LOVEJUSTIFYING
SAMARKANDOWNERS' SUNSHINEFORTUNE WHISKEYFORTUNATE SONZETTA FORCETHRIVING BROTHERS
PRINCE ALEXARGENTO OCEANTHUNDER PRINCEFOREVER GLORIOUSLEGENDARY IMPACTLA FORZA
WITHOUT DELAYCRYSTAL POWERFULINCANTO STARYOUTH POWERYEE CHEONG SPIRITSTORM RIDER
METAL KINGREWARDING BUDDYKING GLORIOSOGALE SAGACIRCUIT DUFFYHAYDAY
CELTIC TIMESPERIDOTLUCKY KINGYOUNG FIGHTERSTAR PERFORMERLUCKY PLANET
NO OTHER CHOICEFORTUNE WARRIORGREAT LOOKINGGLORIOUS RYDERDR GOLDEN GENERALSUPER LEGENDS
HANDSOME BOMBTHOUSAND CUPSSUNNY SING SPIRITSTAR GLOWGREAT LEGACYTHE REVOLUTION
PERPETUAL POWERSALUTE KING PRAWNUP WITH CHARMYIU CHEUNG VICTORYRUNJEET
AWESOME TREASUREACE WAR
 
Enjoyable watching both races.
Yes I agree , kicking myself with KYR was about 2.1 but couldn’t get the trial out of my head, just wasn’t perfect for short odds, really he would be much shorter than that on his HK form, the next winner looked a good price on that trial to me. Both were comfortable watches if you were on.
 
Yes I agree , kicking myself with KYR was about 2.1 but couldn’t get the trial out of my head, just wasn’t perfect for short odds, really he would be much shorter than that on his HK form, the next winner looked a good price on that trial to me. Both were comfortable watches if you were on.
Now it's the case that i find myself looking at a horse trained by SIR MARK PRESCOTT 6.00 wolv KING'S HAND ?
 
Yes I agree , kicking myself with KYR was about 2.1 but couldn’t get the trial out of my head, just wasn’t perfect for short odds, really he would be much shorter than that on his HK form, the next winner looked a good price on that trial to me. Both were comfortable watches if you were on.
O Outlander
The mob i work for absolutley hammered KYR in the win and the exotics market.
Must have been a very strong market.
Somebody was telling me last night that the great mare Winx got beat in 26 trials in a row but always turned up for the big race.
Think punters in Aus only use "trial" form in the way that you have used it there connecting up the collateral line with KYR and Linebacker.
 
O Outlander
The mob i work for absolutley hammered KYR in the win and the exotics market.
Must have been a very strong market.
Somebody was telling me last night that the great mare Winx got beat in 26 trials in a row but always turned up for the big race.
Think punters in Aus only use "trial" form in the way that you have used it there connecting up the collateral line with KYR and Linebacker.
I get that trials not a full test, but Ka Yang Rising always trials like a demon, he didn’t trial any better than Linebacker last week, the trial was a good nod to that one.
 
One of those things in that if Linebacker wasn’t in the trial he would have looked very good as the 2nd in the trial was clearly covered and the trial had the winners of 20 group races involved, just the fact he didn’t look any better than Linebacker and the concern maybe being in Australia wasn’t suiting him and the low odds ( low for small punters but overpriced on what he should be) enough to put me off. He is much better than his run today, I don’t think we saw the optimum KYR , Purton seemed to agree.
 
Think punters in Aus only use "trial" form in the way that you have used it there connecting up the collateral line with KYR and Linebacker.
That’s what I look for the HK trials , not proper races so no point in speed ratings really, just line them up with known HKJC ratings and see if any look like they might have trialled positive compared to the others, catch weight situation so some could be carrying more weight so only ever a guide.
Must have been a very strong market.
100 million HK dollars in the World Pool, returned 1.5
Betfair was returned 2.2 , it was 2.1 when I decided not to bet 😜

Great crowd of young people , but they booed him strongly on the way to post and then all started singing Sweet Caroline, horse handled different atmosphere well. The times he’s done it Sha Tin, with the ease he’s done them, he’s got to be a bit of an outlier horse.
 

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