Handicap Debutantes
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3.20 hay SUN BEAR
This gosden filly was just touched off by stable companion Moonlight in paris on debut late year (heavy), the winner now rated 85 so expected to improve from that at kemp 10f at odds of 8/13 but a bit shoddy from the stalls dettori got her to lead and traveling fine she faded tamely from 2 furlongs out.
Back down to 8f at windsor she again travelled really well and came through to win readily, 2nd went on to win off 78 nto so you can easily argue that SUN BEAR set to run off 82 is fair enough or even a couple of pounds well in but nothing too clever with those numbers.
So she is now handicapping and fav, I think the breeding is another positive has might be the good to soft with rain about but there are negatives with that kempton run over 10f in a race where others are in form.
Conclusion....I think it likely that this filly will eventually prove herself better than 82 but is she value at 7/4 tomorrow ? UNSURE!!
This gosden filly was just touched off by stable companion Moonlight in paris on debut late year (heavy), the winner now rated 85 so expected to improve from that at kemp 10f at odds of 8/13 but a bit shoddy from the stalls dettori got her to lead and traveling fine she faded tamely from 2 furlongs out.
Back down to 8f at windsor she again travelled really well and came through to win readily, 2nd went on to win off 78 nto so you can easily argue that SUN BEAR set to run off 82 is fair enough or even a couple of pounds well in but nothing too clever with those numbers.
So she is now handicapping and fav, I think the breeding is another positive has might be the good to soft with rain about but there are negatives with that kempton run over 10f in a race where others are in form.
Conclusion....I think it likely that this filly will eventually prove herself better than 82 but is she value at 7/4 tomorrow ? UNSURE!!
3.5 asc...MY FRANKEL
Starts his handicapping life from a mark of 96 in a very competitive ascot handicap where he shoulders 9.7, so you need to think that easier ground might help and been impressed by his latest win rather that what the formbook shows, although strictly on the numbers 96 isn't over the top i think it's the manner of his win that counts.
The 3rd horse Brentford Hope already had a rating of 94 so presumably that was a guide to MF mark, if you bother to watch the race it all seem to take place up front and quickened from the bend, Mr Frankel looked held to me until staying on really well and finished up going away and i thought impressive. We have to mention the trainer and i'm guessing he thinks this horse is well up to his breeding and could be a group horse for next year.
A bit of guesswork involved here but i don't see anything else thrown in though Shandoz might be better than what we have seen which is decent anyway but there's something about this Frankel offspring that makes me think the 4/1 on offer is fair enough.
Starts his handicapping life from a mark of 96 in a very competitive ascot handicap where he shoulders 9.7, so you need to think that easier ground might help and been impressed by his latest win rather that what the formbook shows, although strictly on the numbers 96 isn't over the top i think it's the manner of his win that counts.
The 3rd horse Brentford Hope already had a rating of 94 so presumably that was a guide to MF mark, if you bother to watch the race it all seem to take place up front and quickened from the bend, Mr Frankel looked held to me until staying on really well and finished up going away and i thought impressive. We have to mention the trainer and i'm guessing he thinks this horse is well up to his breeding and could be a group horse for next year.
A bit of guesswork involved here but i don't see anything else thrown in though Shandoz might be better than what we have seen which is decent anyway but there's something about this Frankel offspring that makes me think the 4/1 on offer is fair enough.
3.35 bath...CAPTAIN CLARET.
Already rated 73 before his comfortable win over c/d, up 4lbs looks lenient but you could make a case for VIADUCT if fully wound up after 284 days absence with Murphy up. CC should go very close but the market might be interesting, CC is 4/1 , viaduct 7/2.
Further study needed.
Already rated 73 before his comfortable win over c/d, up 4lbs looks lenient but you could make a case for VIADUCT if fully wound up after 284 days absence with Murphy up. CC should go very close but the market might be interesting, CC is 4/1 , viaduct 7/2.
Further study needed.
CLARET quite e Well backed.
4/1 _ 5/2
Strange ride i thought.
Never easy for the handicapper to asses horses with little form and nurseries with 2yr olds improving at a rapid rate might be the most difficult, one horse running today in the 4.10 RENAISSANCE ROSE has had just the 2 runs which started with a better than average novice imo at ascot where she looked like winning at the furlong post but faded into 4th and looking a little green, nevertheless it was a good run behind a filly who went on to run a good 3rd in a G3.
One or two winners since in behind and based on that run alone ROSE mark of 84 might be a couple of pounds too high but she did go on to win by 8L at kemp at 2/9 so no more than expected but she did look a fine big filly albeit carries her head a little high who could carry the 9.7 she has to carry today. She's out of Shamardal so might be expected to be better that a handicapper yet here she is and i will repeat so difficult to know just how good she might be.
On balance you would want her to be more like a 90 filly to be confident she can win this today and the 4/1 on offer is no more than fair but the market might be worth keeping an eye on.
One or two winners since in behind and based on that run alone ROSE mark of 84 might be a couple of pounds too high but she did go on to win by 8L at kemp at 2/9 so no more than expected but she did look a fine big filly albeit carries her head a little high who could carry the 9.7 she has to carry today. She's out of Shamardal so might be expected to be better that a handicapper yet here she is and i will repeat so difficult to know just how good she might be.
On balance you would want her to be more like a 90 filly to be confident she can win this today and the 4/1 on offer is no more than fair but the market might be worth keeping an eye on.
7.00 wolv BLUE EAGLE
Starts off her handicap career on a mark of 64 and given his SP'S have been 40/1, 150/1 and 66/1 you can see why she's a 25/1 chance today but her proximity to MOVING LIGHT and FIESTA DE VEGA on her latest effort might have tempted the handicapper to go a little higher, though the 3rd horse dilutes this thinking to be honest. Quite well bred and it just could be that 12f is more to her liking but obviously all i'm doing here is highlighting the difficulties that handicappers have to deal with.
Starts off her handicap career on a mark of 64 and given his SP'S have been 40/1, 150/1 and 66/1 you can see why she's a 25/1 chance today but her proximity to MOVING LIGHT and FIESTA DE VEGA on her latest effort might have tempted the handicapper to go a little higher, though the 3rd horse dilutes this thinking to be honest. Quite well bred and it just could be that 12f is more to her liking but obviously all i'm doing here is highlighting the difficulties that handicappers have to deal with.
CRYUFF TURN 2.50 ponte
This horse has progressed nicely and having won a app race off a mark of 72 over 7f followed up with a good 2nd over 8f ayr btn 2L by CATCH MY BREATH, the 3rd has won twice since and the 4th ran well enough the other day. What interests me today is that this horse goes up to 10f on soft ground, hopefully he will benefit from this and being out of Dutch Art and the dam being out of Galileo this might well suit him on both counts.
Whether the 9/4 on offer is value is debatable but trainer is in form.
ps...i've put this on the wrong thread but no matter.
This horse has progressed nicely and having won a app race off a mark of 72 over 7f followed up with a good 2nd over 8f ayr btn 2L by CATCH MY BREATH, the 3rd has won twice since and the 4th ran well enough the other day. What interests me today is that this horse goes up to 10f on soft ground, hopefully he will benefit from this and being out of Dutch Art and the dam being out of Galileo this might well suit him on both counts.
Whether the 9/4 on offer is value is debatable but trainer is in form.
ps...i've put this on the wrong thread but no matter.
Looking at the 2.55 newm today i was intrigued to see a few numbers that involves both CLOUD THUNDER & WHITEHAVEN, at the same time i feel they demonstrate just how important ground conditions are when trying to evaluate form.
CT Started his season in a class 5 novice stakes newb in june where he finished 3rd behind TUSCON GAZE who went on to contest group races in france and now rated 91. Second that day was GALATA BRIDGE who went on to win his next 3 races and is now rated 95, CLOUD THUNDER was just a hd behind GB and also went to royal ascot (group2) but flopped behind SANTIAGO but was a 150/1 shot that day, since then ran in a class 5 maiden finishing 2nd and is given a rating of 73 today, this numbers strikes me as being about right but if you go back to that newbury race where there were other horses that have gone on to win races I think CT could easily be rated in the high 80s .
WHITEHAVEN had his first race of the season in june , first time in a handicap he ran off a mark of 51 fe was beaten 16L 8th of 16 at windsor.
He repeated that poor run by finishing 11 of 12 yarm before winning his next race ling class 6 from a mark of 45, since then he has won twice more from marks of 50 & 56 and is now rated 66 those wins were probably down to soft/heavy ground.
To sum up one piece of form in june could easily have CLOUD THUNDER rated around 88 while another bit of form for WHITEHAVEN shows him to be about a 48 horse, about 40lbs inferior to CT at that time on different ground condition.
Today they meet with just 7lbs between them over 12f class4 handicap, heavy going in a fairly competitive 11 runner race, so who might come out on top ? I would say that the ground conditions point to WHITEHAVEN coming out best but that certainly doesn't mean he will win today but might demonstrate the importance of ground conditions over numbers
I thought these numbers interesting.!!!.
CT Started his season in a class 5 novice stakes newb in june where he finished 3rd behind TUSCON GAZE who went on to contest group races in france and now rated 91. Second that day was GALATA BRIDGE who went on to win his next 3 races and is now rated 95, CLOUD THUNDER was just a hd behind GB and also went to royal ascot (group2) but flopped behind SANTIAGO but was a 150/1 shot that day, since then ran in a class 5 maiden finishing 2nd and is given a rating of 73 today, this numbers strikes me as being about right but if you go back to that newbury race where there were other horses that have gone on to win races I think CT could easily be rated in the high 80s .
WHITEHAVEN had his first race of the season in june , first time in a handicap he ran off a mark of 51 fe was beaten 16L 8th of 16 at windsor.
He repeated that poor run by finishing 11 of 12 yarm before winning his next race ling class 6 from a mark of 45, since then he has won twice more from marks of 50 & 56 and is now rated 66 those wins were probably down to soft/heavy ground.
To sum up one piece of form in june could easily have CLOUD THUNDER rated around 88 while another bit of form for WHITEHAVEN shows him to be about a 48 horse, about 40lbs inferior to CT at that time on different ground condition.
Today they meet with just 7lbs between them over 12f class4 handicap, heavy going in a fairly competitive 11 runner race, so who might come out on top ? I would say that the ground conditions point to WHITEHAVEN coming out best but that certainly doesn't mean he will win today but might demonstrate the importance of ground conditions over numbers
I thought these numbers interesting.!!!.
markfinn
Sire
Good post - love the form based posts -
I was in Newmarket on Wed and the rain and hail was absolutely sheeting down - I remarked to a customer about racing and he said it was just about as bad as they ever have and if racing that day it would probably been abandoned - global warming !! - whatever , there are also above average wind speeds forecasted today in the area (Uk average wind speeds 9mph)
Today
same for all, but it all adds to mix.
Neither horse has experience enough to dismiss on ground - but sire stats Fav Whitehaven
Scant info but Whitehaven has the most progressive form and currently has the better draw
Attachments
markfinn I didn't expect such a comprehensive response and the graph is great, I suppose it comes down to how bad the ground might be but over the years my memory of newm is that heavy ground there is not as bad as heavy at york or newb. I suppose this has a lot to do with the soil itself and drainage etc....Breeding....LE HAVRE DUTCH ART etc all points to WHITEHAVEN or at least from memory (haven't researched) but this is a fairly big jump in ratings and wouldn't be a betting race for me.
markfinn
Sire
Whitehaven winner !
GordonBleu
Newbie
Speaking of handicaps, which good race are you all looking forward to before the year ends and which horse are you looking forward to? (totally not looking for reference to use in betting 
)
)DAHEER runs again tonight 8.15 wolv and is now with Loughnane, not sure you can trust this colt and notice he is drawn on the inside this time, was drawn wide when he won having started slowly. New trainer will have a different mindset to how best to campaign this horse but a mark of 78 looks about right and all weather racing his future, he might win this but hard to be confident imo.
11.35 ling....AT EASE
The filly ran ok on debut finishing 4th but then went on to turn over 2/9 fav MARS LANDING rated 84 ( 28 oct) with 7L back to the 3rd, nothing great since from those behind so you need to rely on that one piece of form with MARS.
She made all that day and appeared to quicken like a decent filly with no excuses for the 2nd, drawn out in stall 9 here with a quick starter on her inside so that has to be a negative for a filly who has only run twice but if she a 80+ horse then this opening mark of 74 is fair enough.
The filly ran ok on debut finishing 4th but then went on to turn over 2/9 fav MARS LANDING rated 84 ( 28 oct) with 7L back to the 3rd, nothing great since from those behind so you need to rely on that one piece of form with MARS.
She made all that day and appeared to quicken like a decent filly with no excuses for the 2nd, drawn out in stall 9 here with a quick starter on her inside so that has to be a negative for a filly who has only run twice but if she a 80+ horse then this opening mark of 74 is fair enough.
8.00 wolv....AMTIYAZ
Frankel colt who having beat UTILE rated 92 when receiving 2lb by 4l newc 12f, starts here from a mark of 82 so although it looks a little obvious i can't resist putting it up, goes up another 2f tomorrow but that looks like a positive based on the newc running.
Frankel colt who having beat UTILE rated 92 when receiving 2lb by 4l newc 12f, starts here from a mark of 82 so although it looks a little obvious i can't resist putting it up, goes up another 2f tomorrow but that looks like a positive based on the newc running.