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Handicap Debutantes

T

tacker

Dam
I always find them fascinating simply because it's possible for the handicapper to get them totally wrong, equally there's every chance punters can do the same.

To start things off i'll give a mention to STREAK LIGHTENING 7.55 hayd, not at all easy to rate but has been given a mark of 90 having won both starts for Mark Johnston.

Won a little novice on debut but was backed to do so and pulled clear of the 2nd by 4 1/2 L (winner since) with the gosden fav back in 3rd.

Had his 2nd run at ripon 1ML g-s and was long odds on but to my eye ran a little green until eventually looking well on top close home, nothing much worth mentioning about what's come out of that race so it leaves us wondering how good he is.

Well out of NIGHT OF THUNDER who seems to be producing some decent offspring, gets 8lb weight for age here which is in my opinion a little generous and should be fine on the soft ground , was 4/1 last night but best price 9/4 now.

Class 2 handicap tonight so plenty competitive including ALTERNATIVE FACT who got 4lb for winning over c/d lto so needs to give ST 13lbs, hard to know where we are with these numbers but at the very least it will be of great interest to see how the race unfolds.
 
tacker said:
3.45 chep DAHEER 2/1.
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Trying to make the case for this horse is on one hand we can see the numbers that show he has run to a mark of about 80 so today's 72 looks lenient, even if we ignore the front two at bath we have ARABIAN MOON 79 to give us a guide. Trainer seems to have been in the doldrums in recent years but is well capable imo and might also think DAHEER is on a good mark by going straight into a handicap rather than a maiden after 2 runs.
I am easily led with these numbers and you could argue he faded fairly easily 5L back and maybe ARABIAN MOON didn't run up to it's best that day, wind op after the one run also bothers me but overall i think the positives outweigh the negatives and the market should be a guide.
 
Is from the same family as Taneen who finished his career on 101. As Shadwell take over the entries of the horses when they reach 3yo and 4yo, those age groups are always worth noting when the number 1 jockey rides. Crowley strikes at 30% when they team up with a huge LSP.
 
4.10 bev EAST END GIRL
Watching her last race at kemp where she was having her first run for 9 months she seemed to improve for going up in distance 11f, on turf here over 12f she's running off a mark of 66, she was around horses rated much higher at kemp so we have a complicated numbers game..
She's only little.
 
CONFIDE 4.30 york
I suspect trying to give weight to the two 3yr olds lto was asking a lot and suspect his debut win told O'meara this horse would need more experience even tho he won easily before being aimed at this handicap.
 
tacker said:
4.10 bev EAST END GIRL
Watching her last race at kemp where she was having her first run for 9 months she seemed to improve for going up in distance 11f, on turf here over 12f she's running off a mark of 66, she was around horses rated much higher at kemp so we have a complicated numbers game..
She's only little.
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Non-runner this day but strolled up yesterday at chepstow.
 
tacker said:
Reading form can make you look stupid and there's nobody dafter than me.

ps....the second ran on really well.
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Nothing stupid about it you were first to highlight the horse and although disappointed , excuses were put forward on the thread and it proved a horse to keep an eye on, personally backed it at Chepstow and tonight so happy with that.
This thread has potential to be interesting especially when a few people get involved in the discussion as with Daheer.
 
Outlander said:
Nothing stupid about it you were first to highlight the horse and although disappointed , excuses were put forward on the thread and it proved a horse to keep an eye on, personally backed it at Chepstow and tonight so happy with that.
This thread has potential to be interesting especially when a few people get involved in the discussion as with Daheer.
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Well done O Outlander for backing it, i didn't bother but maybe all weather helped.
 
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