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Handicap Class Droppers

"The main problem with the HH races today are the number of seasonal debut runners taking part. Yesterday's races had more recent form to go on and there's certainly no horse dropping from a recent 2nd in a 40k race to find amongst the hurdlers today."

Well there was a top weight dropping in class from a recent 40k race. I spotted it. But bottled it.

A classic case of a horse with form in better races being dropped in class with a big weight to collect.

Ike Sport had been 2nd in a 42k race at Aintree then won a 6k race at the same venue the following month. First run this season back up to a 42k race at Chepstow and pulled up after being midfield most of the race. Class horse in the race with the best form on offer.

You have to be bold if you want these decent priced winners. It was very similar to a horse I did back at Sedgefield recently in Williethebuilder who won off top weight dropped in class at 9/1.
 
Warwick 3:38 I see Playful Fox as the class/form horse and I'm having a bet on that one.

Just watched class/form horse Applejack Poet win as 20/1 outsider off 10-13 despite running 2nd LTO in a more valuable race. Didn't back it.
 
Could see that fall coming with Playful Fox. Skelton panicked and made up a lot of ground to take on Bowen's horse and they all got racing too early in those 3 fences before they turn in. So often I see that happen at Warwick at those 3 fences. Something invariably falls as they come up in quick succession.
 
That was disappointing from Jolly Potter. Came from 12th with steady headway to arrive between the last two looking all over the winner and it didn't pick up well enough after the last. Must have been a short price in running.

The other horse finished nigh on last.
 
Mickey Cohen pulled it out of the fire after looking likely winner and making a mistake at the last, but rallied to get up in a 4 way photo at 15/2.

I'm going to spend some time reviewing all my data on the HH method. Because I'm seeing things amongst the numerical pictures that time and time again are trapping the winner but don't actually fit in with 6 examples VDW gave. Some do, some don't but in amonsgt my daily shortlists there are a lot of winners to be found, but over analysing the form does not seem to isolate them from the others.

Bit miffed several got away today, and my first thought on the last race at Warwick this morning was I expect Ballymoreen to be the choice, but it didn't quite fit. Should have gone with my gut instinct that here was an unexposed hurdler who had been handicapped on runs that did not reflect it's true ability.
 
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