• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Former Member

horsesforcourses87

horsesforcourses87

Colt
Just thought I'd pop in and say hello. I used to be a regular poster to the forum, with a keen interest on pace analysis and sectional timing.

Around the time of my last post, I'd spent a year or so matched betting before moving onto full-time betting/advantage play.

During my time posting on the forum I didn't have a clue what value was. If I'd clocked a horse finishing a fast sectional, backed next time out at a decent price and won, that was value to me.

To be successful in this game you need to be taking value in the long run. You can follow all the systems in the world but the key metric to success, is still value.

What is value? Is it merely finding big priced winners as I once thought? No, it's about beating the odds, taking a price that is bigger than the fair odds. The beauty of horse racing is that every race in the UK/IRE betfair return a starting price for each runner (BSP). BSP has proven to be very efficient over a large sample size, and even with the drop off in liquidity it's still an excellent guide. So if you back a horse at 5/1 (6.0) and a BSP of 4.5 is returned (with no deductions) you've taken value. From this you can calculate estimated value (EV):
6/4.5 = 133%. Or for every £10 placed, you've taken £3.30 in value.

Obviously the above example doesn't mean you're going to make £3.30 on that bet, it's about the long run and over a large sample of bets.

Hopefully the post will be of some help to those that are constantly going round in circles, trying new systems and coming unstuck. I'm happy to be of help where I can.
 
horsesforcourses87 said:
Just thought I'd pop in and say hello. I used to be a regular poster to the forum, with a keen interest on pace analysis and sectional timing.

Around the time of my last post, I'd spent a year or so matched betting before moving onto full-time betting/advantage play.

During my time posting on the forum I didn't have a clue what value was. If I'd clocked a horse finishing a fast sectional, backed next time out at a decent price and won, that was value to me.

To be successful in this game you need to be taking value in the long run. You can follow all the systems in the world but the key metric to success, is still value.

What is value? Is it merely finding big priced winners as I once thought? No, it's about beating the odds, taking a price that is bigger than the fair odds. The beauty of horse racing is that every race in the UK/IRE betfair return a starting price for each runner (BSP). BSP has proven to be very efficient over a large sample size, and even with the drop off in liquidity it's still an excellent guide. So if you back a horse at 5/1 (6.0) and a BSP of 4.5 is returned (with no deductions) you've taken value. From this you can calculate estimated value (EV):
6/4.5 = 133%. Or for every £10 placed, you've taken £3.30 in value.

Obviously the above example doesn't mean you're going to make £3.30 on that bet, it's about the long run and over a large sample of bets.

Hopefully the post will be of some help to those that are constantly going round in circles, trying new systems and coming unstuck. I'm happy to be of help where I can.
Click to expand...
I think we share opinions of what "value" means forever without being able to agree horsesforcourses87 horsesforcourses87 , little value in doing that.

" FINISHING A FAST SECTIONAL"
Very often we see horses apparently "finishing fast" only to find others were finishing slowly, watching replays and taking account of all sectionals has to be the way forward to understanding the form.
If you look back to last friday and newcastles 6f races i think the sectionals are a big help in understanding the relationship between the early pace or sects to the later finishing numbers.
Welcome back btw.
 
horsesforcourses87 said:
There's no doubt sectionals play a role in forming the price, and even though there is more freely available data, I imagine there is still an edge to be had. But all these different variables (speed fig, sectionals, pace, draw, going, jockey etc) all come together to form the price of that horse.
Click to expand...
You say no doubt but i suspect many members will disagree.
 
horsesforcourses87 said:
There's no doubt sectionals play a role in forming the price, and even though there is more freely available data, I imagine there is still an edge to be had. But all these different variables (speed fig, sectionals, pace, draw, going, jockey etc) all come together to form the price of that horse.
Click to expand...

Reckon the market/public are still behind the curve with sectionals and their overall impact. If you find a measurable way to factor the data into your own tissue price, then you will have an edge in value terms. ie: you estimate 2/1, the market is 4/1. (I haven't found a way as yet)

Good point about the other different variables that come to form the price of a horse. The discussions about Bill Benter/Alan Woods and the billions they made, often "brings out the branston" when evaluating data and the many variables and their subsets. Many, including myself, try and tackle it in our own way using excel and A.I....etc
 
horsesforcourses87 horsesforcourses87 welcome back.

Betting is the proof of the pudding and not enough time is spent on the subject , possibly because we are mostly on same page but who knows.
Quick one - I assume you are betting across multiple horses in the same race when you find overlays, or are you single-betting only?
So if your tissue identifies two overlays in the same race, are you backing both or picking one? And if your tissue ( I assume it’s a personal one ) say your value price is 6.5 and the market is 4.5 would you take 5 ? .
 
The longer I do this. The more concinced i am that value is the ONLY thing that matters. What sport you play, what horse you play, what bookie you play it at, how many bets you play in the same race ... not important.

Beating the closing line (bfsp) is 100% What makes the profit long term.

You beat the closing line and turnover your bankroll ... you will make money.

The bookies know it (its the number one reason they close accounts)

I know it, and the former member of this fine establishment knows it ...

The reason you win long term is not because you picked the right horse. Or because you studied sectionals or because you have inside info. Its because you beat the closing line value more often than not.

It really is that simple.

1. Find a way to beat it by 15/20% consistently,

2.Setup on the exchange ...

3. Profit.


Will add an edit here.

Variance is massive ... you can beat value by 15% on 1000 bets and still be down. But to be down after 10,000 bets with a 15% margin is almost impossible.

You always have to zoom out and look at the bigger picture, the short term runs of losers will kill your spirit and drain your belief.

Push through.. have a much larger betting bank than you think you will need (like 3-5 times as big) and be prepared to use it.
 
Last edited:
Its all interesting on this value you must win but that also is just not true, I do get that getting better prices is good thing but you still have to get enough percentage higher than your odds to show profit,
Take fav if you bet every fav you loss so you need to get better odds or bet less of them to show profit but just getting say instead of 2/1 you get 2.1/1 your still not enough to turn it up as you would need maybe 2.15/1 to break even, thats a simple one as fav records are there.
But if you where say betting your fancy only when odds big enough say like pete said 15/20 percent better two things it is incredibly hard to get better prices on fancied horses you like and they still need to win enough times which is never sure or possible.
So before value even comes into it you have to be sure you have a really good way of picking winners at any sport i might add then work out what value you need to show profit could be one stroke better or two or three.
But one thing is for sure value is not every thing its the icing on top of your ability to pick results.
You could get 5pts better on ever bet you place but if your hopeless at picking the right bet then would make no difference at all.
So simple is one word i would never use in betting as one thing it deff is not is simple.
 
gerry said:
You could get 5pts better on ever bet you place but if your hopeless at picking the right bet then would make no difference at all.
Click to expand...

If you are betting 5pts better on every bet you take, you would be in profit, no matter how bad you were at picking horses.

The win percentage correlation between the closing price and the chance of victory is so close it is frightening. take out a couple of percentage points for commissions and natural deviations and you may as well say closing betfair SP = chance of winning to a 98% degree of certainty.

As long as you are beating the closing price by a decent percent ... you are winning .... the trick is to convince yourself that the rest (track, trip, form, class, sectionals, trainers, jockeys) is just "noise" ... and that "noise" is all built into the final closing odds. Don't worry about the noise, concentrate on the odds/price.

Its not nearly as much fun .... but it works.
 
When I spent a week with Rob Morris on a small yahoo group (Around 5 of us) showed us how he used Odds lines. All were Pre race overlays and he was very successful over the week and was in the Black at the end of the week .

From memory he only looked for overlays for horses who he estimated the true odds to be 9/2 or less. The reason being was that if all his 9/2 True Odds were accurate, even with an overlay he could only expect them to win 18.2% of the time and the possibility of coping with the inevitable losing run

Imagine that all your True Odds estimations 3/1 win 25% of the time. which they should do if your 3/1 estimate is accurate (True) (You have backed them at odds greater than 3/1)

According to Phil Bull “Mathematics of Betting “ You can expect on average to a losing run of 10 after 71 bets

Your True 3/1 ,even when value will only win 25% of the time
 
One thing I'm aware of, is that racing isn’t solved by one metric and one singular rating doesn't give you the complete picture.

----

There's a blog I sometimes receive by email from a chap call Stuart Eaton - (Money Horse), he said:

Sectionals make more sense when combined with, Pace maps, Draw bias, Class context, and Market behaviour.

Sectionals tell you where the energy was spent. This matters because horses respond differently to race shapes. Some thrive in steadily run races. Others need a strong gallop. Without sectionals, you are guessing.

He went on to say:

Overvaluing a fast closing sectional. can be a mistake.

A horse that runs the fastest final 2f may look impressive. But ask:
  • Did the leaders go too fast early?
  • Was the horse always well-positioned?
  • Did it pass tired rivals rather than strong ones?
A fast last split does not always mean superior ability. Often, it simply means the horse was best suited to the pace shape.

---

Race IQ is probably the closest to tackling the subject. Will need to set aside some proper time to dig deeper.

Race IQ Glossary

---




 
100% pete pete it's what will make you profit in the long run. Obviously it's easier said than done but once you're able to beat BSP/the closing line, it all comes down to managing your bank roll and being able to turnover enough money.

markfinn markfinn I don't price up races/form my own tissue, I use software that identifies value in the long run. I'll happily take multiple horses in the same way and all of my singles betting is EW. As Pete mentioned, volume is key. You can have one bet per day for the whole year, beat BSP by 30% and be down. On the flip side you could be give 30% away, but be up from a small number of bets.

gerry gerry value is everything. Take the value long term and the winners will come. Why do bookmakers always push big winning football accas made up of several teams? Because they know in the long run the majority of their customers are compounding bad value, which is what makes them money.
 
If value is everything which i get in context the better the odds you get for something you think should be shorter.
But the big question is what is value, put four guys in a room and ask them what is the value bet of the day in fact even better put 100 men or woman in room and ask them what is the value bet of the day none would know they would all guess but only people in the know of a certain outcome would really know.
Here is a horse in the his very next race i bet it last night at what i thought was good value 13/2 got up this morning and was 12/1 now i see before off is back to 13/2 so thought was value last night proved wrong went to value this morning now just before off back to not value or is it still value.
 
gerry said:
what is value
Click to expand...

Value is simply beating the bfsp.

Every horse in a race could be value at some point.

Its much easier to pick off value 10/15 before the race starts.

Though if you look at usa racing. Taking early odds about front running horses will generally net you a positive position come race time.

If you look 10 mins before a race when the live show comes out. You tend to find betfair is often slow to respond to price movements in usa racing.

Sky and willhill often dont move odds on greyhounds that have seen significant money elsewhere a few hours before racing starts.

Basketball is a sport that is easy to pick off if you are watching for price movements.

Look for times where odds available at bookies are close to exchange lay prices an hour or so before racing starts... often the movement starts on exchanges quite some time before bookies react.

It takes much more money going on a horse for bet365 to move a price than it takes for a smaller book to move a price. So look for prices being slashed with 365, then take the bet at other books who will undoubtedly follow the trend.

Lots of ways to spot when value may happen.

You won't always get the right result. But you can often see where the market may go before it actually does.
 
Last edited:
gerry said:
If value is everything which i get in context the better the odds you get for something you think should be shorter.
- But the big question is what is value, put four guys in a room and ask them what is the value bet of the day in fact even better put 100 men or woman in room and ask them what is the value bet of the day none would know they would all guess but only people in the know of a certain outcome would really know.
Click to expand...

You are correct, as value is in the eye of the beholder. However, if there was a proven statistic/metric that showed that the true odds of an event was 10/1. and someone offered you 2/1, you would confidently tell them to do one.

Then, the event actually occurs, everyone in the press told you it was gonna happen, all of twitter told you to get on at 2/1, it's an odds on chance, you're a mug if you missed it...etc Well, there was still a 9.09% chance it would happen, they just beat the variance.

Assuming the 100 people in the room can't influence the result or the thinking of anyone else in the room, then the wisdom of the crowd will likely be an accurate one. Then, create a tissue price for that event, and then get a bookie to take 1000 bets at a better price than the crowd's tissue price, mathematics will likely provide a profitable scenario.
 
In my Opinion - Value should be baked into your method
My Approach to Backing Horses
I do one race a day, usually pick it the evening before. I’m looking for Class 4, 5, or 6 handicaps - Class 5 preferred - somewhere between 5 and 8 furlongs, shorter the better. Maximum 12 runners, needs to be 3-year-olds and up but I don’t like seeing more than two 3-year-olds in the field.
The key is older horses with loads of form - horses where I can see what they’ve done, what the trainer’s up to, and where I can discount some quickly because they’re clearly unsuited to the conditions or distance.
I handicap the whole field, takes about 30 minutes. Official Rating is my starting point - it’s the factual ability baseline. I’m looking for horses within about 8 pounds of the top-rated, that’s a tight enough cluster where they’re genuinely inseparable on ability. But I don’t adjust the OR for conditions - that’s a separate filter. I look at OR as one fact, conditions as another fact. Can this horse execute its ability today or can’t it? Trip suited, going suited, track record, that sort of thing.
Then I’m looking at Next Time Out signals - is this the target race or are they just positioning the horse? For another day - Jockey bookings matter, ownership patterns matter, how trainers place their horses at certain tracks - all of that feeds into whether this is a genuine attempt or not.
Once I’ve got my 2 to 5 horses that pass all those filters, I check prices - usually around 1pm on race day, sometimes earlier or later depending when I’m done. I back them in order of ranking. Top-rated gets backed first, second-rated second, and so on. If the top two don’t meet my price threshold - minimum 11/4 each horse - it’s no bet. I’ve been caught before backing the lesser chances and having the top two tighten up, then one of them wins and I’m two stakes down on what were supposed to be safety bets. Learned that lesson.
The hard rules are: never back one horse, never back against your identified favourite if there’s clear separation, and the combined position needs to return at least 30% net after Betfair’s 2% commission. If my top two are solid but one tightens below backable odds, I’ll look at the third and fourth in my ranking - if they’re sitting at 6 to 12/1 or what ever and the return covers my total stake should one of them beat my team, I’ll adjust the threshold and back them to keep multiple coverage.
I back equal stakes across however many qualify. I place the bets, I forget the race. 90% of my betting is on Betfair - they don’t care if you win, the liquidity’s is usually there for backing multiples, and the 2% commission is transparent.
The evaluation of horses is where there’s some flex - I’m using experience to read races, trainer intent, all that. But the backing itself is rigid. If it meets the criteria, I bet. If it doesn’t, I don’t. I spent years keeping records and building this method. Now the bookies’ accounts keep me straight - if they’re growing, it works. If they’re not, something’s broken. I worked out years ago that 30% min value is my value and I don’t intentionally work for less .
 
pete said:
If you are betting 5pts better on every bet you take, you would be in profit, no matter how bad you were at picking horses.

The win percentage correlation between the closing price and the chance of victory is so close it is frightening. take out a couple of percentage points for commissions and natural deviations and you may as well say closing betfair SP = chance of winning to a 98% degree of certainty.

As long as you are beating the closing price by a decent percent ... you are winning .... the trick is to convince yourself that the rest (track, trip, form, class, sectionals, trainers, jockeys) is just "noise" ... and that "noise" is all built into the final closing odds. Don't worry about the noise, concentrate on the odds/price.

Its not nearly as much fun .... but it works.
Click to expand...
pete pete
This business of beating the betfair sp strikes me as being a rather difficult task than is implied, just how is it achieved ?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top