• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Former Member

🎯 What “value” actually means


A price is value only when the odds you take are higher than the true probability of the outcome.


That’s it.
Not “higher than Betfair.”
Not “higher than the bookies.”
Not “looks big.”
Not “drifted.”


It’s purely a comparison between:


  • Your estimated probability, and
  • The implied probability of the odds you’re offered.
If your estimate is more accurate than the market’s, you have value. If it isn’t, you don’t.





🧮 The maths behind it (simple version)


Odds imply a probability.
For example:


  • Odds of 4.0 imply a probability of 1/4=0.25 or 25%.

If you believe the horse actually has a 30% chance of winning, then:


  • Your probability (30%) > market probability (25%)
  • That’s value.

If you believe the horse has a 20% chance, then:


  • Your probability (20%) < market probability (25%)
  • That’s negative value, even though the odds look “big.”




🧠 The hard part: estimating true probability


This is where most bettors fall down.
The market is usually efficient because:


  • Thousands of people are pricing the same race
  • Information is shared instantly
  • Betfair money corrects bad prices quickly

So to find value, you need an edge that lets you estimate probability better than the market. That could come from:


  • Deep form analysis
  • Sectional times
  • Pace maps
  • Trainer patterns
  • Ground biases
  • Inside information (legal or otherwise)
  • Statistical modelling
  • Identifying market overreactions

Without an edge, you’re just guessing.





🧩 Why “bigger than Betfair” isn’t automatically value


Betfair is often the most accurate reflection of true probability.
If a bookmaker is offering bigger odds than Betfair, it’s usually because:


  • They’re slow to update
  • They’re boosting to attract bets
  • They’re wrong (rare)
  • You’re comparing at the wrong moment
  • The horse is actually less likely than the bookmaker thinks

You only have value if your probability estimate beats Betfair’s.





🏇 A quick example


You think a horse has a 40% chance of winning.


  • Betfair price: 2.5 (implies 40%)
  • Bookie price: 3.0 (implies 33.3%)

Is that value?


Only if your 40% estimate is correct.
If the true probability is actually 33%, then the bookie’s 3.0 is fair, not value.





🔥 The real question


To know whether a price is value, you need a method for estimating true probability. That’s the entire game.


If you want, we can go deeper into:


  • How to build a probability model
 
Yep. The closest you can get to true probability is betfair sp. So that is what you measure against.

As I said in my initial post. Its probably around 97/98% accurate long term. .

That is why you aim for 15% above betfair sp.

Couple of percent to account for inaccuracies couple of percent to account for human error ...and a 10% roi.

Job done.


Edit. The o ly other way to measure true probability is to look at long term roi.

Your long term roi over thousands of bets will approximate to the value you have taken over and above the true value that the bookie was offering.
 
Last edited:
Over tens of thousands of bets the two numbers in the results sheet i posted earlier (clv and roi) would eventually be pretty much the same ...

1769141661260.png

Closing line value and roi are effectively one and the same long term ...

In the same way that flipping a coin can show 7 heads and 3 tails over a short amount of flips. .. we know that eventually the more flips you take. The closer those numbers will get to 50%
 
Last edited:
yes closer but possibly might never get to 50% as just like racing there is to many thinks can happen to sway to one or other more.
probability is just that not fact.
So for people to say you must make money getting value is not fact like some say your just getting value on one or two horses.
The bookies don't win all the time because they don't give value on one horse they win because they don't give value on all the likely winners of a race hence there big over round. Even betfair exchanges there is still a little over round with punters looking for that edge of fractions.
Some thing must be in your favour to get that edge or it will finally get you.
 
gerry said:
you must make money getting value is not fact
Click to expand...
If you beat betfair closing odds by 15% over thousands of bets. You will make money. No ifs ands or buts.

The betfair overround is pretty close to 100% give or take 2/3 % as I said. So if you are beating it .. (less human error) you will make money.

Does not matter what you bet on, does not matter what sport, does not matter what side you take.

Over thousands of bets you have the mathematical edge. You don't have to know the first thing about the sport that you are betting in.

It could be female Mongolian high school wrestling. If I can turnover enough bets with enough volume, and beat the betfair sp by 15% on average. I would be confident of turning a profit.

What you bet on does not make the slightest bit of difference, as long as you are getting value.

Its not much fun to think of it that way. The puzzle of picking the winner is what we like to believe is making us money. Its the game we play, in reality, its just numbers. The market knows more than you do. Unless you beat it (enough to offset the small magins + errors). In which case.. you win.

Edit, this is the last I will post on this in this thread as I am repeating myself now.

I had lived this life for approx 3/4 years, i went down the +EV rabbit hole, I saw the numbers, I bought the T-Shirts, I learned what to look for, how to spot it, when and how to place the bets, I saw guys doing this with handball, basketball, football, golf, tennis, greyhound racing, horse racing, ice hockey and lots of things in-between.

Ultimately it kills your accounts and its not much fun ... it makes money, but you are just sat watching numbers all day waiting for opportunities to enter markets.

I made money but got out of it, as the time needed to source new accounts and get new bank cards and turnover your money ended up being more and more unsustainable. It could be done using exchange only, but the margins were much lower and therefore the number of bets and the turnover required to earn the same amount of money was silly.

Am happy to share more if anyone has questions, but its not something i would recommend someone get into.
 
Last edited:
Leodis said:
I have a copy of that book. A good idea in principle, but it was a bit fudgey. @
TheBluesBrother
TheBluesBrother , class pars can be used to do a similar/better job
Click to expand...
 

Attachments

  • Flat Pars.xlsx
    15.3 KB · Views: 15
  • NH Pars.xlsx
    20.7 KB · Views: 11
Sounds very much like a job of work rather than getting some pleasure out of punting, beating the bookies overround edge will never be easy but it can be done and there's something satisfying in trying.
 
pete pete ...... Very interesting thread , my first thought is how do the big syndicates like Tony Bloom for instance , get their money on ? I am not sure if you can mention other Betting Sites but i have subscribed to one and early days mind , it looks promising . Just placed 20 bets today , so it is a high turnover method of betting like you mention Pete . Luckily ! i have been strictly an "Entertainment type Punter " ie A Loser ! so it will be interesting to see how long the Bookie takes before it notices a Pattern ? i still throw in a few Yankee bets etc to throw them off the scent !!
However , there is no entertainment value at all , when do you decide when you have won enough money ? At some point you will need to up your stakes to make it worthwhile ? etc etc . Is it OK to just be "Buying Some Entertainment " i think so but having contradicted myself by saying that , is it really all about Winning Money ????
 
My accounts tended to lest an average of 5-10 days. But I was pushing through 60/80 bets a day at around 20 quid a time.

I say it was no fun. For me the enjoyment was learning something new. I stopped because I gor into the world of purchasing accounts in someone else's name and using my own bank cards for each new account. I also changed out mini pc's regularly and each new set of accounts I would switch my Sim card in my router so I had a new ip address each time.

It was cat and mouse and because I live in the usa .. turning over bank cards and the remote access to the pcs that I was using became tiresome.

Don't worry too much about knowing when to stop. The bookies will manage that angle for you ;)

What are you betting on?
 
gerry said:
🧠 The key idea: “Value betting” is probabilistic, not certain
If you consistently take odds that are mathematically higher than the true probability, you should profit over thousands of bets, not in the short term. But:
• You need a reliable way to know the true probability
• Betfair isn’t perfect, but it’s usually close
• Edges are tiny, and variance is huge
• Bookmakers limit or ban winning accounts
So the statement “you must win” is simply not true.
Click to expand...
As has been mentioned the betfair starting price is still a very good metric to use, even with the drop off in liquidity over recent years. So if you were to track a few hundred bets at prices available at the time of the bet you thought was value vs BSP, you would know if you have an edge.

The size of the edge doesn't matter as much. pete pete mentioned 15% as a minimum to help in reducing variance. Variance depends on the true probability of the odds you are taking. Some one who has an edge betting at odds on will have a much smoother ride than the one that is finding value at double figure odds (as long as they mange their bankroll correctly).

Greyhound racing has notoriously low limits. I'm sure most will be aware that the money enters the markets very late, so if you do beat the closing line, your accounts will be gone very quickly.

Most of the chat so far has been around singles, mainly because of the ability to measure odds taken vs BSP (These are freely available on Timeform). But just like bookies love multiples because most customers are compounding bad value, you can also use compounding to your advantage. One bet that may be 110% ev alone, compounded with another 110% ev bet now becomes 121% ev.
 
Good luck.the lads that i "worked" with would use "pinnacle" as the anchor book in football bets.

They would watch for the opening lines to be released each week, then monitor pinnacle odds to see if or where prices changed ... at that point they would place bets on 365 primarily..

They tended to go for "full time result" or "Asian handicap" betting, though some would do number of goals or corners ... the more popular leagues were lower Australian and south American games. Where bookies did not really have vast knowledge on which to base initial opening odds ...

The more popular leagues were generally more accurately priced ... but limits on bets were also less restrictive.

Its amazing what games are actually available when you go digging around. Many are effectively "Sunday football" level games ... and they are offering odds.
 
I think the main point we all know or knew about looking about for odds changes in bookies to get better prices and yes you can live a life searching odds but what is the fun in daily life as that has maybe the biggest value on it.
So we are talking really about value in the context of daily living where we can get decent odds our bets we like and have mixture of fun and winning.
That's the real world we live in i think if you cant get value betting on betfair exchanges and don't need worry about bookies closing then its all just short term and no fun i might add.
Even betfair ruined it when they opened multies to betting shop only bets .
Everyone talks about value but no one gives any here mine i think that JALISCO STAR is 6/1 or 13/2 in all bookies and you can get 7/1 betfair 8.2 exactly i think that value will it win or even place who knows but i think it is decent price.
 
Yeah i love the study pete pete but there no doubt the bookies screwing us into the ground and i think maybe some out the box way of picking them could fox them.
 
I'm curious re those who produce their own tissue/odds , have you back tested to see just how 'true' they are compared to isp and bsp, e.g. your strike for your even money shots vs bsp even money shots?

Beating isp isn't too hard but I find it harder re bsp, also I believe where you typically play in the market can impact it as well
 
Last edited:
Here's an extra wrinkle using Betfair BSP, and securing extra profit above and beyond the tissue price.

Column B is the Minimum Acceptable Price (M.A.P) , ie, the tissue price.
Column C is the +EV% that's input as desired.
Column D are the new Odds required that is would be input into Betfair when placing a BSP bet.

Say you cover to win ÂŁ50, then staking @ M.A.P would be rounded to ÂŁ14.30 (ÂŁ14.30 @ 3.50)
To get the same CTW return, the Odds Required stake would reduce, dependent on the Odds required price.

The frustration for me would be missing a winner above my tissue price if I set the odds required too high @ BSP.

However,

What I prefer to do, is to keep the M.A.P. stake the same (ÂŁ14.30), request the BSP @ M.A.P (tissue 3.50). If the BSP is less than 3.50, then if falls below my tissue price and is not considered value, but, the bigger BSP returns, the more profit. (Column J). (that's the fun bit)


1769175027040.png
 
gerry said:
I think the main point we all know or knew about looking about for odds changes in bookies to get better prices and yes you can live a life searching odds but what is the fun in daily life as that has maybe the biggest value on it.
So we are talking really about value in the context of daily living where we can get decent odds our bets we like and have mixture of fun and winning.
That's the real world we live in i think if you cant get value betting on betfair exchanges and don't need worry about bookies closing then its all just short term and no fun i might add.
Even betfair ruined it when they opened multies to betting shop only bets .
Everyone talks about value but no one gives any here mine i think that JALISCO STAR is 6/1 or 13/2 in all bookies and you can get 7/1 betfair 8.2 exactly i think that value will it win or even place who knows but i think it is decent price.
Click to expand...
Hoof Odds have GMS 11/4 and 10/3 available
JS Hoof Odds 11/2 and 13/2 available
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top