Former Member

[markfinn]

pete
This business of beating the betfair sp strikes me as being a rather difficult task than is implied, just how is it achieved ?

You just go in early or leave a price cancelled at the off

 

[markfinn]

markfinn in my opinion that sounds like a lot of work to then dutch one race per day. Only you know if you have an edge following this method, but the key issue for me would be volume of bets.

Don’t why you would think it’s a lot of work 30mins - most days there is only race worth looking at any way - I have been down the road of loads of per day - but not now

 

[tacker]

You just go in early or leave a price cancelled at the off

So going in early means bet @7 because it might go @6 ?

"cancelled at the off " ? don't understand how this works.

 

[markfinn]

You have the option to take the price or ask for more - if you ask for more and your stake is not taken at the of you can opt to take SP - keep it in running ( not for me as it’s nearly always taken and loses ) or bet cancelled

 

[pete]

just how is it achieved ?

I refer the right honorable gentleman to the answer I gave some moments ago.

In greyhounds for example over thousands of bets. I was able to average +17% better than bfsp .... using bookies odds.

Its work. But its doable.

Of course accounts are closed very quickly too ... and therein lies the problem.

 

[Leodis]

There's a blog I sometimes receive by email from a chap call Stuart Eaton - (Money Horse), he said:

Is that the same guy who wrote Class Figures, DuckandDive ?

 

[DuckandDive]

Is that the same guy who wrote Class Figures, DuckandDive ?

Yep, I've haven't read it though, written 2007.

 

[Chesham]

Is that the same guy who wrote Class Figures, DuckandDive ?

Yes same chap. Not impressed when I read his book years ago, too many Fudge Factors .

Has a podcast The Money Horse Show

 

[Chesham]

I think ARAZI91 gave the golden nugget for Sectionals analysis

 

[Chesham]

 

[Leodis]

Yes same chap. Not impressed when I read his book years ago, too many Fudge Factors .

Has a podcast The Money Horse Show

I have a copy of that book. A good idea in principle, but it was a bit fudgey. TheBluesBrother , class pars can be used to do a similar/better job

 

[Chesham]

Chesham, i dont understand 8lb well in. and then app takes off 5 lbs is that not 1 stone difference

Was due to go up 13 Lbs on BHA Ratings, from last time out BHA rating72, ,but was entered before that came into effect. Ran off 77 so was still 8 Lbs well in , even with the 5 Lb Penalty The apprentice took the 5 Lbs Penalty off with the Apprentice Allowance

Add all of that to the Sectional Report ran the Fastest MPH in the Race as well as the Fastest Gallop Out MPH recorded 20 yds before,the finishing line and 20,yds after the finishing Line

LTO achieved a BHA rating 85


But was placed before the revised Mark came into effect

 

[Sol Ski]

Chesham, i deleted my post because i did not understand.
so the trainer can run this in a lower class race ?

 

[Chesham]

Chesham, i deleted my post because i did not understand.
so the trainer can run this in a lower class race ?

No it was the same class Ceiling 75 . Nothing to do with class other than had the revised BHA rating the horse would not have been able to race in that Class Ceiling from the Saturday of that week.

It was to explain how to use the BHA Performance Rating to your own advantage to find horses who are well in and backed up by their Sectional Times

The Official BHA Handicappers also use race replays and sectional times to adjust each horses official ratings, These are published by the BHA Tuesday each week and come into effect on Saturday of that week.

These are the BHA performance Ratings

https://api09.horseracing.software/bha/v1/ratings/csv/performance-figures

These are the revised ratings which come into effect this Saturday

https://api09.horseracing.software/bha/v1/ratings/csv/ratings?diff

 

[gerry]

so going by what every one is saying is value if you bet every fav at the off on betfair but only if you got better odds elsewhere just before odds then you must win money long term.

 

[gerry]

here the answer i got back

 

[gerry]

no what I am saying is if you see say a horse at 2/1 on betfair right on the off but your watching bookies and you see it at 9/4 with a bookie so you bet it with bookie because its bigger and if you only bet horses that are bigger with bookies than betfair fav at off you must win long term

 

[gerry]

i had to re -do it for AI

 

[gerry]

The key idea: “Value betting” is probabilistic, not certain
If you consistently take odds that are mathematically higher than the true probability, you should profit over thousands of bets, not in the short term. But:
• You need a reliable way to know the true probability
• Betfair isn’t perfect, but it’s usually close
• Edges are tiny, and variance is huge
• Bookmakers limit or ban winning accounts
So the statement “you must win” is simply not true.

 

[pete]

gerry, yes. This is correct. But like I said. You need to be beating by around 15% to even out some of the variance.

Its not an easy task. Its time consuming. But the greyhound bets I referenced earlier. ...

These were my results ...



As you can see, as the bookmaker accounts were closed and I had less options, the profit became less and less.

At no point did I ever look at a single piece of form, watch a replay or know anything at all about the dogs that I was betting on. Just pure numbers ...