Eric Bowers narrowing the field

Olwenba · Nov 18, 2023

First Post, hopefully posted in the right place so here goes.

I know this is a method from many moons ago but does anybody use his method today as a quick way to help reduce a race to a number of "contenders" to examine further. The info I have read and if correct, the method uses the weight/OR and betting forecast as a view to overall form and recent form to gather the initial list. I can see the logic with this and see it could be a good starting point especially for big field handicaps when there's not enough time to examine 20+runners. I think the method reduces the initial list further with some added rules (must be a balanced handicap??) though those rules I am open to discussing and incorporating different ones myself. Be interested to hear anyone else thoughts.

Olwenba · Nov 20, 2023

Thought I would right up my understanding of the method and use an upcoming handicap race to examine a little further, the jumps actions looks abit thin in term of runners per race so i'll jump into the action on the AW this evening. There's a couple races with double digit runners but I've favoured the better class race for this example.

6:30 Kempton - 1m Class 2 with 9 runners at the time of posting...

horse	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
Notre Belle Bete	104	5	5
Choisya	98	4.5	10.5
Hafeet Alain (IRE)	95	5	14
Catch The Paddy (IRE)	93	7.5	18.5
Excel Power (IRE)	98	13	19
Symbol Of Light	97	15	22
Caragio (IRE)	88	8	24
Julia Augusta	92	13	25
Autumn Festival	90	11	25

So we have the above ratings for the upcoming race, the difference in OR from the top rated + the forecast price, working from the bottom rating I need to eliminate roughly 50% of the field. In this instance Autumn Festival, Julia Augusta, Caragio and Symbol of light will all be eliminated. To further reduce the list Excel Power forecast odds (13) exceed the number of runners in the race (9) so this horse should also be eliminated. Of the remaining some further form study needs to be completed, i'll briefly list a couple notes on each of the runners

Catch the Paddy is a 3yo making his debut on the AW his has 3 wins on turf - 2 over 6f and 1 over 7f so this distance of 1m is ?? but was 2nd in quite a valuable race at York over 1m in August off a mark of 89.

Hafeet Alain on the other hand has had 13 runs already on the AW with just 1 win back in Feb 2022 over the 1m at Lingfield. That was off a mark of 94 but the last couple of AW runs he has been beaten of 88 and 93. Though he was a winner LTO on the flat in this class so does arrive in good order.

Choisya another 3yo with just the 5 starts on the AW, has shown progressive form on the turf winning twice and coming 2nd twice too. Career best RPR last time out.

Notre Belle Bete the best strike rate of these on the AW and is a CD winner but a conditions event the last time he was on the AW and put up 7lbs for that to 104. Absence to overcome.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Notre Belle Bete win, but there are a couple on the up in the line up - Choisya could well carry on her recent improvement and she would be my selection. Win or lose, it's not about that, its the initial shortlist approach i'm keen to look at. Going forward i'd like to see the winner captured in the shortlist hopefully more times than not - not sure if bowers ever recorded the % of the winners being included in the shortlist from all the races he crosschecked. As a quick shortlist approach giving horses for further study it's a good starting point.

Olwenba · Nov 20, 2023

Bower ratings for the other handicap races (all in double digits runners) at Kempton giving a shortlist for further study.

time	track	horse	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
16:30:00	Kempton	Arctician (IRE)	76	6.5	6.5
16:30:00	Kempton	Miss Dolly Rocker	73	5.5	8.5
16:30:00	Kempton	Big Bear Hug	69	6	13
16:30:00	Kempton	Port Erin (IRE)	73	11	14
16:30:00	Kempton	Forward Flight (IRE)	70	8	14
16:30:00	Kempton	Outrace (IRE)	69	9	16
time	track	horse	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
19:00:00	Kempton	Andaleep (IRE)	83	6	11
19:00:00	Kempton	Perseus Way (IRE)	81	4.33	11.33
19:00:00	Kempton	Oceanline (IRE)	85	9	12
19:00:00	Kempton	Carzola (IRE)	88	13	13
19:00:00	Kempton	Cmon Kenny	74	7	21
19:00:00	Kempton	World Without Love	74	9	23
19:00:00	Kempton	Mostly Sunny (IRE)	78	13	23
time	track	horse	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
19:30:00	Kempton	Got No Dollars (IRE)	58	4.5	4.5
19:30:00	Kempton	Harry The Haggler (IRE)	59	6.5	5.5
19:30:00	Kempton	Local Music (IRE)	60	8	6
19:30:00	Kempton	Top Of The Class	60	11	9
19:30:00	Kempton	Jesse Luc	60	11	9
19:30:00	Kempton	Lady Amanda (IRE)	57	13	14
19:30:00	Kempton	Bugle Beads	57	13	14
19:30:00	Kempton	Swiss Rowe (IRE)	56	13	15
time	track	horse	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
20:00:00	Kempton	Fravanco	58	5.5	5.5
20:00:00	Kempton	Hazel Bear	57	6.5	7.5
20:00:00	Kempton	Total Master	60	11	9
20:00:00	Kempton	Kemerton (IRE)	57	8	9
20:00:00	Kempton	Khangai	60	11	9
20:00:00	Kempton	Showlan Spirit	54	8.5	12.5

Olwenba · Nov 20, 2023

Not sure how, but the excel calculations for the 7.30 and 8.00 went wrong which I didn't spot. Winner trapped in 3 of the 5 races this evening. Duke of Oxford in the 7.00 was eliminated at the final stage due to odds higher than the number of runners. Lessons to be learnt going forward.

mick · Nov 21, 2023

Hi O Olwenba i have not read Bowers but would say good work above and best of for the thread.

Monty · Nov 21, 2023

I’ve read and enjoyed the Bowers book and you have interpreted his ratings system perfectly.

The trouble with these mechanical systems is that they have good days and bad days and there’s no way of knowing what today will bring. Fineform is another system that produces similar results and both methods have their merits. Speed of compilation being the main one where Fineform just has the edge for me. I’ve had some very good days with either method on course and feel that the biggest assistance to the bare ratings is to consider the live market close to the off.

Connections rarely let their winners go off at odds larger than they should be.

Thanks for an interesting thread and good luck with it.

Monty

Olwenba · Nov 21, 2023

9 races today to hit the criteria as I understand it. All 10+ runner handicaps, I've excluded 2yo nurserys as there's generally not enough form in book. The 6pm at Chelmsford did qualify originally but splitting the 50% was far too tight on ratings so I have chosen to ignore it.

time	track	horse	runners	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
12:55:00	Hereford	Bertie Wooster (IRE)	11	103	5	5
12:55:00	Hereford	State Legend (IRE)	11	98	4.5	9.5
12:55:00	Hereford	Trick Of The Tail (IRE)	11	99	9	13
12:55:00	Hereford	Rajjamataz (IRE)	11	101	17	19
12:55:00	Hereford	Mactavish	11	85	4	22
12:55:00	Hereford	Yes And Yes (IRE)	11	92	17	28
time	track	horse	runners	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
13:35:00	Limerick	Splashing Out (IRE)	14	108	7.5	7.5
13:35:00	Limerick	Pidoyne (IRE)	14	101	6.5	13.5
13:35:00	Limerick	Leahs Tricks (IRE)	14	105	13	16
13:35:00	Limerick	Bents Hollow (IRE)	14	104	13	17
13:35:00	Limerick	Caoimhes Pet (IRE)	14	97	7	18
13:35:00	Limerick	Mag Dillane (IRE)	14	102	17	23
13:35:00	Limerick	Stellar Symphony (IRE)	14	91	7	24
time	track	horse	runners	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
14:10:00	Limerick	Bite That (IRE)	14	95	3.5	3.5
14:10:00	Limerick	Natural Breeze (IRE)	14	93	3.75	5.75
14:10:00	Limerick	New Barn Lane (IRE)	14	94	9	10
14:10:00	Limerick	Ivane (FR)	14	88	3.25	10.25
14:10:00	Limerick	Verbal Sparring (IRE)	14	90	17	22
14:10:00	Limerick	Petit Dejeuner (IRE)	14	89	17	23
14:10:00	Limerick	Always Enchanting	14	87	17	25
time	track	horse	runners	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
14:40:00	Hereford	Norton Hill (IRE)	10	109	5	5
14:40:00	Hereford	Kazontherazz	10	104	9	14
14:40:00	Hereford	Sammylou (IRE)	10	102	9	16
14:40:00	Hereford	Bright Sunbird (IRE)	10	100	7	16
14:40:00	Hereford	Aldsworth	10	95	3.75	17.75
time	track	horse	runners	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
14:45:00	Limerick	Shotgun Jack (IRE)	14	99	3.5	6.5
14:45:00	Limerick	Great Island (IRE)	14	102	7	7
14:45:00	Limerick	Cosmic Rock (IRE)	14	99	7.5	10.5
14:45:00	Limerick	Happy Dreams (FR)	14	99	8	11
14:45:00	Limerick	My Friend The Wind (IRE)	14	97	7	12
14:45:00	Limerick	Vintage Gold (IRE)	14	97	15	20
14:45:00	Limerick	Kalanisi Dubh (IRE)	14	93	13	22
time	track	horse	runners	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
15:15:00	Hereford	Imac Wood (FR)	12	103	4.5	6.5
15:15:00	Hereford	Billingsley (IRE)	12	104	9	10
15:15:00	Hereford	Dream Jet (IRE)	12	102	9	12
15:15:00	Hereford	Kalpaga (FR)	12	101	9	13
15:15:00	Hereford	Vocito (IRE)	12	105	15	15
15:15:00	Hereford	Benny Silver (IRE)	12	90	7.5	22.5
time	track	horse	runners	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
15:20:00	Limerick	Kingston Kid (IRE)	16	95	6.5	6.5
15:20:00	Limerick	What An Ocean (IRE)	16	92	3.5	6.5
15:20:00	Limerick	Captain Jimmy (IRE)	16	91	8	12
15:20:00	Limerick	Ballydangan (IRE)	16	89	8	14
15:20:00	Limerick	Meehall (IRE)	16	91	11	15
15:20:00	Limerick	Oldtown To Emly (IRE)	16	80	1	16
15:20:00	Limerick	Ferrum	16	80	1	16
15:20:00	Limerick	Treyarnon Bay (IRE)	16	80	1	16
time	track	horse	runners	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
17:30:00	Chelmsford City	For Real (FR)	16	57	5.5	5.5
17:30:00	Chelmsford City	Sirius White (IRE)	16	52	4	9
17:30:00	Chelmsford City	Struck Gold (IRE)	16	53	5.5	9.5
17:30:00	Chelmsford City	Calleveryoneuknow	16	50	11	18
17:30:00	Chelmsford City	Tranquillity	16	46	9	20
17:30:00	Chelmsford City	Channel Packet	16	46	11	22
17:30:00	Chelmsford City	Brazen Arrow	16	46	13	24
17:30:00	Chelmsford City	Blue Curacao	16	46	13	24
time	track	horse	runners	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
20:30:00	Chelmsford City	Emma Emilleen	12	70	6.5	6.5
20:30:00	Chelmsford City	Turner Girl (IRE)	12	69	8	9
20:30:00	Chelmsford City	Night At Sea	12	69	8	9
20:30:00	Chelmsford City	Clipsham Gold (IRE)	12	68	8	10
20:30:00	Chelmsford City	Corymbosa	12	68	8	10
20:30:00	Chelmsford City	Rogue Warrior (IRE)	12	67	7	10

Olwenba · Nov 21, 2023

Winner was caught in the shortlist in 7 of the 9 races today. Winner has been in 10/14 on all races so far, promising start albeit on a very small sample.

Olwenba · Nov 22, 2023

8 more races to go at today, lets see if we can repeat yesterday's results.

time	track	horse	runners	category	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
14:55:00	Dundalk	Gobi Star (IRE)	14	All Weather	61	4.5	4.5
14:55:00	Dundalk	Bucky Larson (IRE)	14	All Weather	59	6	8
14:55:00	Dundalk	Chica Power (IRE)	14	All Weather	58	9	12
14:55:00	Dundalk	Knockmore Prince (IRE)	14	All Weather	52	4	13
14:55:00	Dundalk	Amemri	14	All Weather	56	11	16
14:55:00	Dundalk	Circles (IRE)	14	All Weather	53	11	19
time	track	horse	runners	category	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
16:40:00	Dundalk	Skontonovski	12	All Weather	69	4	4
16:40:00	Dundalk	Notforalongtime	12	All Weather	68	5	6
16:40:00	Dundalk	Storm Eric (IRE)	12	All Weather	67	5.5	7.5
16:40:00	Dundalk	Chimeric (IRE)	12	All Weather	64	15	20
16:40:00	Dundalk	Morning Approach (IRE)	12	All Weather	60	11	20
time	track	horse	runners	category	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
17:00:00	Wolverhampton	Bankrupt (IRE)	10	All Weather	64	3.5	3.5
17:00:00	Wolverhampton	Aconcagua Mountain (IRE)	10	All Weather	60	5	9
17:00:00	Wolverhampton	Victors Dream	10	All Weather	57	4.5	11.5
17:00:00	Wolverhampton	Cuban Grey	10	All Weather	60	9	13
17:00:00	Wolverhampton	Teresa Grace (IRE)	10	All Weather	60	11	15
time	track	horse	runners	category	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
17:15:00	Dundalk	Fashion Flair	14	All Weather	64	9	9
17:15:00	Dundalk	Arctic Blaze (IRE)	14	All Weather	64	13	13
17:15:00	Dundalk	Patrick Street	14	All Weather	63	13	14
17:15:00	Dundalk	Slaney Tide (IRE)	14	All Weather	63	15	16
17:15:00	Dundalk	Areana (IRE)	14	All Weather	62	15	17
17:15:00	Dundalk	Kartayaz (IRE)	14	All Weather	54	7	17
17:15:00	Dundalk	Kampala Beach (IRE)	14	All Weather	51	4	17
17:15:00	Dundalk	Comfort Line (IRE)	14	All Weather	59	13	18
time	track	horse	runners	category	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
17:45:00	Dundalk	Wajaaha (IRE)	14	All Weather	65	4	4
17:45:00	Dundalk	Oakley (GER)	14	All Weather	63	8	10
17:45:00	Dundalk	Old Peculier	14	All Weather	58	6	13
17:45:00	Dundalk	Jazz Dreamers (IRE)	14	All Weather	58	9	16
17:45:00	Dundalk	Dinamine (IRE)	14	All Weather	48	7	24
17:45:00	Dundalk	Lucky Question	14	All Weather	47	9	27
time	track	horse	runners	category	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
18:00:00	Wolverhampton	White Umbrella	12	All Weather	55	3.5	3.5
18:00:00	Wolverhampton	Jumira Bridge	12	All Weather	53	6	8
18:00:00	Wolverhampton	Sherdil (IRE)	12	All Weather	52	7	10
18:00:00	Wolverhampton	Billian (IRE)	12	All Weather	51	6.5	10.5
18:00:00	Wolverhampton	Rhubarb	12	All Weather	54	13	14
18:00:00	Wolverhampton	White Mist	12	All Weather	50	9	14
time	track	horse	runners	category	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
19:30:00	Wolverhampton	God Of Thunder (IRE)	11	All Weather	70	5	6
19:30:00	Wolverhampton	Boasty (IRE)	11	All Weather	71	8.5	8.5
19:30:00	Wolverhampton	Dance Time	11	All Weather	68	5.5	8.5
19:30:00	Wolverhampton	Tafsir (USA)	11	All Weather	62	5.5	14.5
19:30:00	Wolverhampton	Rock Chant (USA)	11	All Weather	67	11	15
time	track	horse	runners	category	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
20:00:00	Wolverhampton	Red Hat Eagle	10	All Weather	69	2.75	2.75
20:00:00	Wolverhampton	Enola Grey (IRE)	10	All Weather	66	5.5	8.5
20:00:00	Wolverhampton	Eye Of The Water (IRE)	10	All Weather	64	8	13
20:00:00	Wolverhampton	Ravenglass (IRE)	10	All Weather	62	6	13

Olwenba · Nov 22, 2023

I make that 5/8 today. 15/22 overall. Would like to see how we are looking after 100 races or so but operating just short of 70% at the moment which is promising still.

Olwenba · Nov 23, 2023

9 more to look at today....

time	track	horse	runners	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
12:30:00	Market Rasen	Climate Precedent	10	100	4	4
12:30:00	Market Rasen	Racy Lacey (IRE)	10	100	5	5
12:30:00	Market Rasen	Lady Gwen	10	97	3	6
12:30:00	Market Rasen	Minella Plus (IRE)	10	100	10	10
12:30:00	Market Rasen	Hugueneau (FR)	10	93	4.5	11.5
time	track	horse	runners	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
12:45:00	Thurles	Name Me Famous (IRE)	15	107	4	4
12:45:00	Thurles	Lake Chad (IRE)	15	106	5.5	6.5
12:45:00	Thurles	Leish Oscars Son (IRE)	15	101	8	14
12:45:00	Thurles	Politicise (IRE)	15	106	14	15
12:45:00	Thurles	Ardamir (FR)	15	98	7	16
12:45:00	Thurles	Filon Doudairies (FR)	15	102	16	21
12:45:00	Thurles	Finnians Row (IRE)	15	92	7	22
12:45:00	Thurles	Mcgrath From Clune (IRE)	15	92	7	22
time	track	horse	runners	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
13:15:00	Newcastle	So Many Roads	10	102	6	6
13:15:00	Newcastle	Velasco (IRE)	10	99	5	8
13:15:00	Newcastle	Perculator	10	98	10	14
13:15:00	Newcastle	Largy Train	10	101	14	15
13:15:00	Newcastle	Dequall	10	88	7	21
time	track	horse	runners	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
14:25:00	Newcastle	Grand Soufle (FR)	12	110	5	5
14:25:00	Newcastle	Its A Love Thing	12	106	5	9
14:25:00	Newcastle	Vocal Duke (IRE)	12	106	6	10
14:25:00	Newcastle	Coral Blue (IRE)	12	107	8	11
14:25:00	Newcastle	Atlantic Dancer (IRE)	12	102	4.5	12.5
14:25:00	Newcastle	Imaginary Dragon (FR)	12	107	14	17
time	track	horse	runners	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
14:30:00	Thurles	The Banger Doyle (IRE)	15	106	6	9
14:30:00	Thurles	From The Ashes (IRE)	15	109	10	10
14:30:00	Thurles	Hard Rain (IRE)	15	107	8	10
14:30:00	Thurles	Ishan (FR)	15	103	4	10
14:30:00	Thurles	Dragons Pass (IRE)	15	103	5.5	11.5
14:30:00	Thurles	Penny Jar (IRE)	15	109	12	12
14:30:00	Thurles	Tilloughna (IRE)	15	101	8	16
14:30:00	Thurles	Our Bobby (IRE)	15	104	12	17
time	track	horse	runners	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
15:05:00	Thurles	Battle Of Ridgeway (IRE)	16	101	4.5	4.5
15:05:00	Thurles	Duke Otto (IRE)	16	101	5	5
15:05:00	Thurles	Duncarrig (IRE)	16	101	6	6
15:05:00	Thurles	Herculaneum (IRE)	16	94	4	11
15:05:00	Thurles	Ricky Bobby (IRE)	16	98	12	15
15:05:00	Thurles	Derry Lad (IRE)	16	99	16	18
15:05:00	Thurles	Glenmalure Flyer (IRE)	16	97	14	18
time	track	horse	runners	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
15:50:00	Wincanton	Jack Sprat (IRE)	13	99	3	4
15:50:00	Wincanton	Sami Bear	13	100	6	6
15:50:00	Wincanton	Doyen For Money (IRE)	13	94	7	13
15:50:00	Wincanton	Ventara	13	90	4.5	14.5
15:50:00	Wincanton	Makanao	13	92	8	16
15:50:00	Wincanton	Caeruleum	13	91	16	25
time	track	horse	runners	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
19:00:00	Wolverhampton	Chillingham (IRE)	10	96	4.5	5.5
19:00:00	Wolverhampton	Prydwen (IRE)	10	94	10	13
19:00:00	Wolverhampton	Barenboim	10	94	10	13
19:00:00	Wolverhampton	Sonnerie Power (FR)	10	87	4	14
19:00:00	Wolverhampton	Nolton Cross (IRE)	10	88	5.5	14.5
19:00:00	Wolverhampton	Capital Theory	10	87	5	15
time	track	horse	runners	OfficialRating	FCOdds	Bowers Rating
19:30:00	Wolverhampton	Ecclesiastical	12	75	3.5	3.5
19:30:00	Wolverhampton	Musical Mystery	12	73	3	5
19:30:00	Wolverhampton	Rock Opera	12	74	10	11
19:30:00	Wolverhampton	Cooperation (IRE)	12	72	8	11
19:30:00	Wolverhampton	Thaki (IRE)	12	67	6	14
19:30:00	Wolverhampton	Beauty Choice	12	71	12	16

Jackform · Nov 23, 2023

O Olwenba, the Eric Bowers definition of a balanced handicap:
'Divide the number of runners by 2 and the numbered horse should be carrying within a pound or two of the middle weight'.

Olwenba · Nov 23, 2023

Thanks Jackform.

Rightly or wrongly I've tried to simplify slightly by using the OR instead of weight because of various allowances races could allow. Would the same approach still work? I looked at the spread of OR in the races today, the 1.15, 2.25 and 3.50 races could have be ignore as 'not balanced' handicaps which has eliminated 2 losers and 1 winner today.

Olwenba · Nov 23, 2023

6/9 today. 21/31 overall. Still just shy of the 70% mark. I've read success rate in the 80% mark was common throughout a season.. let's hope ey!

TheBluesBrother · Nov 24, 2023

Olwenba said:
Rightly or wrongly I've tried to simplify slightly by using the OR instead of weight because of various allowances races could allow. Would the same approach still work?

I would rather use the RPR ratings.

I have Eric Bowers's book (Red Cover) and found his way of narrowing the field to be a bit basic, when working out the class of the horses I use my flat pars table.

Mike.

Olwenba · Nov 24, 2023

Thanks for the attachment

TheBluesBrother That's a different take on overall form, I suppose you are taking two 'expert' views with this, one from the OH and the other from the RP handicapper and lining the two together. With that being said, the column with OR+RPR - is that taking today's OR and the RPR on main racecard view or the RPR within the horses from book? I think the figure on the racecard view is the horses best of the last 12months or so and is adjusted to the weight carried for the coming race.

I agree the idea is basic and was looking to see if there was still any merit in it today to create a quick shortlist of contenders and also to 'specialise' or 'be more selective' from the several meetings and races we see everyday.

TheBluesBrother · Nov 24, 2023

Olwenba said:
With that being said, the column with OR+RPR - is that taking today's OR and the RPR on main racecard view or the RPR within the horses from book?

Here is an example ref the LTO run of Regal Fanfare, her best performance to date is an RPR+OR (145), and the table conversion gives an OR of 68/69 with a speed figure "MR" of 50/51, today she runs off a mark of 70.

Mike.

Jackform · Nov 24, 2023

O Olwenba, just for interest this is an extract from an Eric Bowers article, 2003.

However the ideal weight balance can be checked by dividing the number of runners by 2 and then checking to see if that numbered horse is carrying within a pound or two of the middle weight. For example, in a 16 runner race covering a weight range of 12-00 to 10-00, the number 8 and/or 9 horses should be carrying within a few pounds of 11-00. This gives us a race with an ideal three sections; • below their class • in their class • above their class The races to avoid are those which are condensed, where the middle horses are around either 11-7 or 10-7. Under these conditions the official handicapper is telling you that the majority of the runners, top or bottom, are of a near equal ability and therefore the race will be quite competitive with a greater possibility of possible surprise outcome. I am a great believer that in a balanced race the higher weighted, better class horses, will win the vast majority of races. As long as the horse is reasonably fancied in the betting forecast, statistics via RSB and other such programs will verify this fact. That is how the method works. A final additional elimination is possible if any retained horse is at greater odds than the number of runners. Over a 5 year period, in all handicap races, 78.4% of winners were at odds less than the total number of runners. It should be noted that this statistic only applies to starting prices.If you rely on the forecast price, discretion should be used.

Olwenba · Nov 24, 2023

Thank you

Jackform and

TheBluesBrother the class pars is an interesting angle to look at. I shall delve a little deeper with that in the background, as for the rest of the thread I will carry on posting the basic method with the emphasis of finding more balanced handicaps. From further research I've noted several samples (all from the flat) their lbs difference from top to bottom and also middle weights and it shows the weight spread of each race as 25lb, 22lb, 18lb, 26lb, 26lb, 27lb, 26lb, 23lb, 19lb, 20lb, 19lb and 14lb with the exception of the 14lb the rest have quite the spread. With those races the middle weights of these were 9st 3lb, 9st 1lb, 8st 9lb, 9st 3lb, 8st 11lb, 8st 10lb,9st 1lb, 8st 13lb, 9st, 9st 1lb, 9st, 9st 1lb so all roughly near the 9st mark.

Anyway we shall try the Catterick 1.15 race, the middleweight I have is around 11st 1lb, 14 runners and horse number 7 has a weight of 11st 4lb.

time	track	horse	race_name	runners	category	pounds	OfficialRating	Lbs Diff	FCOdds	Bower Rating
13:15:00	Catterick	Five Dollar Fine (IRE)	Support The Injured Jockeys Fund Novices Handicap Chase	14	National Hunt	168	100	0	4.5	4.5
13:15:00	Catterick	Limerick Leader (FR)	Support The Injured Jockeys Fund Novices Handicap Chase	14	National Hunt	168	100	0	7	7
13:15:00	Catterick	Marajman (FR)	Support The Injured Jockeys Fund Novices Handicap Chase	14	National Hunt	167	99	1	16	17
13:15:00	Catterick	Coniston Clouds (IRE)	Support The Injured Jockeys Fund Novices Handicap Chase	14	National Hunt	165	97	3	6	9
13:15:00	Catterick	Royle Steel (FR)	Support The Injured Jockeys Fund Novices Handicap Chase	14	National Hunt	155	87	13	4	17

TheBluesBrother · Nov 24, 2023

O Olwenba

As you are looking at the NH here are my NH Pars chase+hurdles.

Mike.

Eric Bowers narrowing the field

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