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    AR

Eric Bowers narrowing the field

Continuing my learning curve with Copilot, I asked it to use every horse's last 6 races' history, along with my speed figures "MR," and method +17 to produce a table showing who is well in.

Tony Montana.
Beaten on his last 13 starts going back to May 2024 but he's run some big races and wasn't discredited in his two starts this term; third and tenth in the last two runnings of this race; claimer ridden for the first time as a handicapper and worth a second look despite wide draw.

Rathgar.
Has won twice at this track, albeit in very different races to this; 1m2f wins at Newbury and Epsom (made all) on good ground in April and ran well again when third at Sandown this month on good to firm; each-way player if he's in the same form.

Noble Horizon.
1-8 for William Haggas; second run for new connections when he resumed improvement to make all in ten-runner race at Leicester (1m2f, good; acts on good to firm) in June, well clear through the final 2f; those wins are two of the four times he's made the running, which will be more difficult in this larger field and after a 10lb rise but he looked good last time.


13:50 Goodwood
1350Goodwood.PNG

Mike.
 
4.10 Goodwood
The Goodwood 5-furlong course is a straight, downhill sprint renown as one of the fastest turf tracks in the world. [1, 2]



Track Characteristics
  • Topography: The course begins at the highest point of the track and experiences a continuous downhill gradient until the final furlong.
  • The Dip: The ground levels out slightly in the dramatic final furlong, creating a test of balance.
  • Draw Bias: High draw numbers (closest to the stands' side rail) generally hold an advantage when the ground is fast. [1, 2]
ront-runners and prominent racers hold a massive pace advantage in Goodwood sprints, making it one of the most difficult tracks in the UK for hold-up horses. Because the 5 and 6-furlong courses are heavily downhill, horses hit maximum velocity immediately out of the stalls, allowing early speed to naturally carry much further. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

Strategic Pace Breakdown
  • The Early Blitz: Front-runners that jump cleanly and reach top speed instantly—like Big Evs in the King George Stakes—can comfortably dictate the race because the downhill momentum reduces the energy cost of leading. [1, 2]
  • The Mid-Race Camber: The track features a sharp camber that slopes downward toward the far rail. Leading horses positioned near the stands' rail or straight down the center can maintain a balanced, linear stride, whereas trailing horses attempting to weave through the pack often lose momentum. [1, 2]
  • The "Traffic" Trap: Hold-up sprinters face a statistically poor Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) profile at Goodwood. Because fields bunch up tightly on the rapid descent, finding a clear running lane in the final 2 furlongs is notoriously difficult, frequently resulting in horses getting "boxed in" along the rail. [1, 2, 3]
 
Last edited:
Paul Brown said:
4.10 Goodwood
The Goodwood 5-furlong course is a straight, downhill sprint renown as one of the fastest turf tracks in the world. [1, 2]



Track Characteristics
  • Topography: The course begins at the highest point of the track and experiences a continuous downhill gradient until the final furlong.
  • The Dip: The ground levels out slightly in the dramatic final furlong, creating a test of balance.
  • Draw Bias: High draw numbers (closest to the stands' side rail) generally hold an advantage when the ground is fast. [1, 2]
Click to expand...
Front-runners and prominent racers hold a massive pace advantage in Goodwood sprints, making it one of the most difficult tracks in the UK for hold-up horses. Because the 5 and 6-furlong courses are heavily downhill, horses hit maximum velocity immediately out of the stalls, allowing early speed to naturally carry much further. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

Strategic Pace Breakdown
  • The Early Blitz: Front-runners that jump cleanly and reach top speed instantly—like Big Evs in the King George Stakes—can comfortably dictate the race because the downhill momentum reduces the energy cost of leading. [1, 2]
  • The Mid-Race Camber: The track features a sharp camber that slopes downward toward the far rail. Leading horses positioned near the stands' rail or straight down the center can maintain a balanced, linear stride, whereas trailing horses attempting to weave through the pack often lose momentum. [1, 2]
  • The "Traffic" Trap: Hold-up sprinters face a statistically poor Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) profile at Goodwood. Because fields bunch up tightly on the rapid descent, finding a clear running lane in the final 2 furlongs is notoriously difficult, frequently resulting in horses getting "boxed in" along the rail. [1, 2, 3]
 
TheBluesBrother said:
Continuing my learning curve with Copilot, I asked it to use every horse's last 6 races' history, along with my speed figures "MR," and method +17 to produce a table showing who is well in.

Tony Montana.
Beaten on his last 13 starts going back to May 2024 but he's run some big races and wasn't discredited in his two starts this term; third and tenth in the last two runnings of this race; claimer ridden for the first time as a handicapper and worth a second look despite wide draw.

Rathgar.
Has won twice at this track, albeit in very different races to this; 1m2f wins at Newbury and Epsom (made all) on good ground in April and ran well again when third at Sandown this month on good to firm; each-way player if he's in the same form.

Noble Horizon.
1-8 for William Haggas; second run for new connections when he resumed improvement to make all in ten-runner race at Leicester (1m2f, good; acts on good to firm) in June, well clear through the final 2f; those wins are two of the four times he's made the running, which will be more difficult in this larger field and after a 10lb rise but he looked good last time.


13:50 Goodwood
View attachment 169865

Mike.
Click to expand...
Eric Bowers Ratings Table (Racecard Order)1.50 Goodwood
No.DrawHorseWeightOROR DiffForecast OddsEric Bowers Rating
1​
-4​
Liberty Lane9-12
109​
0​
13​
13​
2​
-16​
Bolster9-8
105​
4​
81​
85​
3​
-13​
Torito9-7
104​
5​
29​
34​
5​
-14​
Yabher9-5
102​
7​
8.5​
15.5​
6​
-2​
Henlein9-3
100​
9​
67​
76​
7​
-17​
Diego El Queso9-3
100​
9​
4.33​
13.33​
8​
-15​
Wave Rider9-2
99​
10​
15​
25​
9​
-12​
Quai De Bethune9-0
97​
12​
10​
22​
10​
-11​
Night Breeze8-12
95​
14​
13​
27​
11​
-9​
King's Code8-12
95​
14​
26​
40​
12​
-1​
Dhahabi8-12
95​
14​
101​
115​
13​
-7​
Rathgar8-11
94​
15​
15​
30​
14​
-8​
Noble Horizon8-11
94​
15​
7​
22​
15​
-18​
Tony Montana8-11
94​
15​
17​
32​
16​
-3​
Al Aali8-10
93​
16​
7​
23​
17​
-10​
Parole D'oro8-10
93​
16​
15​
31​
18​
-6​
Twisting Physics8-8
91​
18​
8.5​
26.5​
 
MySportsAI said:
Actually I have lowered my scepticism which I highlighted in another post. The centre spread seems to be a key factor. If you simply work out the rankings using weight and odds then I do not think it moves the dial significantly but selecting races from within all races based on mid point spread and perhaps fine tuning that mid point calculation may offer something. I went on to show how Machine Learning could be used for the final bet selection stage. Market selection is actually a very interesting topic, vast amounts have been written on rating and ranking horses/teams etc but less on race selection ie which races to play in and which to dodge.
Click to expand...
Indeed know where your strengths are & pick your battles
 
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