Eric Bowers narrowing the field

Sullybomb · 2026-07-28T07:17:23+0100

tony spencer said:
Great work Sullybomb have you reviewed the Goodwood races today?

Just running the reports as we speak. I'll post them up shortly T tony spencer

tacker · 2026-07-28T07:19:03+0100

MySportsAI said:
None of you or previous advocates of Bower have really answered the question. Does narrowing the field narrow the loss because if it does not then you might just as well take the first X in the betting and use this to narrow the field. My contention is that if a method gives you half the field to focus on and over time you would lose significantly less backing them all than backing the rest of the field then you have indeed found a useful tool from which to progress your 'further study' of a race. If it does not satisfy this test then you wasting valuable time with the Bower steps. One other point breaking out from this question with anecdotal evidence for individual races does not really get us closer to an answer

I sense a certain frustration on your part

MySportsAI and tend to agree, you have shown some numbers elsewhere that appear to demonstrate bowers approach might not stand up to critical analysis.
When you choose to introduce an odds bias into any approach might it not be the case that yes you will inflate the strike rate but at the expence of a possible greater roi ?

MySportsAI has now produced numbers that has questioned the logic but clearly feels those questions have yet to be answered, i think he has a point.

Handicaps ?
We could spend all year trying to question why they don't work ie should all finish in a dead heat but that obviously is ridiculous for all sorts of reasons but it seems to me that bowers using the logic of " lowest odds" is basic at best and misleading at worse.

tony spencer · 2026-07-28T07:20:43+0100

Sullybomb said:
Just running the reports as we speak. I'll post them up shortly T tony spencer

Great , just updating my overview will share then as well

DuckandDive · 2026-07-28T07:32:55+0100

tacker said:
Handicaps ?
We could spend all year trying to question why they don't work ie should all finish in a dead heat but that obviously is ridiculous for all sorts of reasons but it seems to me that bowers using the logic of " lowest odds" is basic at best and misleading at worse.

Good point. IMHO, The logic of the "lowest odds" when adding in the OR gap, only gives a race review a starting point.

The other "work" required to compare key factors, to test the Bowers short-list, and obtain value, is where it gets interesting.

If it's possible to eliminate runners (including any on the Bowers short-list), and leave us with cream of the crop, then we're cooking.

tacker · 2026-07-28T07:40:42+0100

DuckandDive said:
Good point. IMHO, The logic of the "lowest odds" when adding in the OR gap, only gives a race review a starting point.

The other "work" required to compare key factors, to test the Bowers short-list, and obtain value, is where it gets interesting.

If it's possible to eliminate runners (including any on the Bowers short-list), and leave us with cream of the crop, then we're cooking.

" if it's possible " ?
Well on sunday i dismissed the chances of GO VICTOR winning the 5.00 ponte, STILL DO.

Leodis · 2026-07-28T07:57:06+0100

For one I've not seen evidence that it was tested long term, using the correct rules.

Secondly, there are plenty of stats out there that prove the top third of weights win more than the middle, etc. Also, we have a very efficient market in Betfair. Combining the two areas does trap more winners than losers and it is really up to the individuals approach on how many of these winners they manage to bag.

MySportsAI · 2026-07-28T08:08:01+0100

tacker said:
I sense a certain frustration on your part MySportsAI and tend to agree, you have shown some numbers elsewhere that appear to demonstrate bowers approach might not stand up to critical analysis.
When you choose to introduce an odds bias into any approach might it not be the case that yes you will inflate the strike rate but at the expence of a possible greater roi ?

MySportsAI has now produced numbers that has questioned the logic but clearly feels those questions have yet to be answered, i think he has a point.

Handicaps ?
We could spend all year trying to question why they don't work ie should all finish in a dead heat but that obviously is ridiculous for all sorts of reasons but it seems to me that bowers using the logic of " lowest odds" is basic at best and misleading at worse.

Actually I have lowered my scepticism which I highlighted in another post. The centre spread seems to be a key factor. If you simply work out the rankings using weight and odds then I do not think it moves the dial significantly but selecting races from within all races based on mid point spread and perhaps fine tuning that mid point calculation may offer something. I went on to show how Machine Learning could be used for the final bet selection stage. Market selection is actually a very interesting topic, vast amounts have been written on rating and ranking horses/teams etc but less on race selection ie which races to play in and which to dodge.

tacker · 2026-07-28T08:20:37+0100

MySportsAI said:
Actually I have lowered my scepticism which I highlighted in another post. The centre spread seems to be a key factor. If you simply work out the rankings using weight and odds then I do not think it moves the dial significantly but selecting races from within all races based on mid point spread and perhaps fine tuning that mid point calculation may offer something. I went on to show how Machine Learning could be used for the final bet selection stage. Market selection is actually a very interesting topic, vast amounts have been written on rating and ranking horses/teams etc but less on race selection ie which races to play in and which to dodge.

Race selection is fine

MySportsAI and i would be confident you will be able to find other ways of "fine tuning" but i'd like to gamble there will come a point where you'll look back and ask what has happened to bowers ?

Paul Brown · 2026-07-28T08:33:38+0100

Comparison Early ratings and ratings after the race had finished;

19:28 Windsor
Class 3
6 Furlong
No.	Draw	Horse	OR	Diff.	Odds	Rating
8	11	Dandana	90	0	26	26
1	6	Hucklesbrook	88	2	11	13	*
2	5	Sudden Flight	87	3	5	8	****
3	8	Uncle Don	87	3	9	12	**
4	4	Another Abbott	86	4	10	14
5	9	Nad Alshiba Green	86	4	12	16
6	2	Willem Twee	85	5	17	22
7	3	Brosay	85	5	13	18
13	12	Regional Rock	85	5	4	9	***
9	10	Star Chorus	84	6	41	47
10	14	Ancient State	83	7	13	20
11	1	Mesaafi	81	9	13	22
12	13	Maelstrom	81	9	26	35
14	7	Amazonian Dream	73	17	5.5	22.5

After the race had finished

No.	Draw	Horse	OR	Diff.	Odds	Rating
8	11	Dandana	90	0	26	26
1	6	Hucklesbrook	88	2	8.5	10.5	**
2	5	Sudden Flight	87	3	5	8	****
4	4	Another Abbott	86	4	5	9	***
5	9	Nad Alshiba Green	86	4	29	33
6	2	Willem Twee	85	5	51	56
7	3	Brosay	85	5	17	22
13	12	Regional Rock	85	5	8.5	13.5	*
9	10	Star Chorus	84	6	26	32
10	14	Ancient State	83	7	21	28
11	1	Mesaafi	81	9	9	18
12	13	Maelstrom	81	9	17	26
14	7	Amazonian Dream	73	17	4.33	21.33

DuckandDive · 2026-07-28T09:20:36+0100

tacker said:
" if it's possible " ?
Well on sunday i dismissed the chances of GO VICTOR winning the 5.00 ponte, STILL DO.

I did too....and still do too!

gerry · 2026-07-28T09:21:20+0100

I think like most on here we where all a little shocked by GO VICTOR win at 28/1 T tacker but like anything else you look to see how could that horse win that race and maybe take some kind of glint of why was it even possible it had ability to win it.
Then when you dig a little deeper you see that it had the best speed rating in the whole race on grass 65 the only horse with better speed rating was the second but they where both on all weather then when it done that good speed rating at haydock it run twice on soft then all weather then soft again then finally it got its firmer ground but started at 66/1 and they run it into the ground in that race finally finishing last then bang in it goes , could it have been bet not really is honest answer was there angle yes there was but just another angle all it proved is the top half in the ratings it was in top half in betting it wasnt but was top rated in race and best speed figure on grass.

DuckandDive · 2026-07-28T09:25:55+0100

Paul Brown said:
Comparison Early ratings and ratings after the race had finished;

19:28 Windsor
Class 3
6 Furlong
No. Draw Horse OR Diff. Odds Rating
8
11
Dandana
90
0
26
26
1
6
Hucklesbrook
88
2
11
13
*
2
5
Sudden Flight
87
3
5
8
****
3
8
Uncle Don
87
3
9
12
**
4
4
Another Abbott
86
4
10
14
5
9
Nad Alshiba Green
86
4
12
16
6
2
Willem Twee
85
5
17
22
7
3
Brosay
85
5
13
18
13
12
Regional Rock
85
5
4
9
***
9
10
Star Chorus
84
6
41
47
10
14
Ancient State
83
7
13
20
11
1
Mesaafi
81
9
13
22
12
13
Maelstrom
81
9
26
35
14
7
Amazonian Dream
73
17
5.5
22.5

After the race had finished

No. Draw Horse OR Diff. Odds Rating
8
11
Dandana
90
0
26
26
1
6
Hucklesbrook
88
2
8.5
10.5
**
2
5
Sudden Flight
87
3
5
8
****
4
4
Another Abbott
86
4
5
9
***
5
9
Nad Alshiba Green
86
4
29
33
6
2
Willem Twee
85
5
51
56
7
3
Brosay
85
5
17
22
13
12
Regional Rock
85
5
8.5
13.5
*
9
10
Star Chorus
84
6
26
32
10
14
Ancient State
83
7
21
28
11
1
Mesaafi
81
9
9
18
12
13
Maelstrom
81
9
17
26
14
7
Amazonian Dream
73
17
4.33
21.33

The late market move on Another Abbott shows, as a method, nearer the off time (aka Bill Benter), it's important to take into account the overall market sentiment.

tacker · 2026-07-28T09:27:34+0100

gerry said:
I think like most on here we where all a little shocked by GO VICTOR win at 28/1 T tacker but like anything else you look to see how could that horse win that race and maybe take some kind of glint of why was it even possible it had ability to win it.
Then when you dig a little deeper you see that it had the best speed rating in the whole race on grass 65 the only horse with better speed rating was the second but they where both on all weather then when it done that good speed rating at haydock it run twice on soft then all weather then soft again then finally it got its firmer ground but started at 66/1 and they run it into the ground in that race finally finishing last then bang in it goes , could it have been bet not really is honest answer was there angle yes there was but just another angle all it proved is the top half in the ratings it was in top half in betting it wasnt but was top rated in race and best speed figure on grass.

Trust me

gerry I‘ve had the shovel out but in my opinion there’s nothing in the form to warrant that performance, Ryan Price would be proud.

Paul Brown · 2026-07-28T09:29:52+0100

DuckandDive said:
The late market move on Another Abbott shows, as a method, nearer the off time (aka Bill Benter), it's important to take into account the overall market sentiment.

Market more efficient, but early value evaporated !

Sullybomb · 2026-07-28T09:30:48+0100

DuckandDive said:
The late market move on Another Abbott shows, as a method, nearer the off time (aka Bill Benter), it's important to take into account the overall market sentiment.

This was my own Bowers report from yesterday morning, didn't get around to posting it up on here prior to the off.

DuckandDive · 2026-07-28T09:31:21+0100

tacker said:
Trust me gerry I‘ve had the shovel out but in my opinion there’s nothing in the form to warrant that performance, Ryan Price would be proud.

Reg Akehurst, Lynda/Jack Ramsden, Gary Moore, John Butler, Barney Curley, Sir Mark Prescott would be proud...

gerry · 2026-07-28T09:31:38+0100

Lol i have just showed the form that warranted it just got beat in a 0-70 race of 65 then run in that 0-55 race of 55 so was best rated in race could i have bet it no but do i want to know how it found that run yes.

DuckandDive · 2026-07-28T09:36:58+0100

Paul Brown said:
Market more efficient, but early value evaporated !

Yes. Although, there is a tissue calculator created by

ARAZI91 that incorporates the live market, as a form of adjusting your own tissue in line with market sentiment. If the value still remains, once adjusted, then job's a good un.

DuckandDive · 2026-07-28T09:40:11+0100

Sullybomb said:
This was my own Bowers report from yesterday morning, didn't get around to posting it up on here prior to the off.
View attachment 169864

Looks good. You captured the ole 1-2-3.

tacker · 2026-07-28T09:50:03+0100

gerry said:
Lol i have just showed the form that warranted it just got beat in a 0-70 race of 65 then run in that 0-55 race of 55 so was best rated in race could i have bet it no but do i want to know how it found that run yes.

Well yes, you can always cherry pick pieces of form but what about his last run ?
I’m not near a laptop atm but will have another look Gerry.

Eric Bowers narrowing the field

Colt

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Mare

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Gelding

Yearling

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Mare

Mare

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Colt

Colt

Mare

Mare

Mare

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