Eric Bowers narrowing the field

Paul Brown · 2026-07-27T17:43:10+0100

Coments in running

Hucklesbrook
close up, ridden over 2f out, weakened final 1f
led, headed 1f out, weakened final ½f
chased leaders, ridden over 2f out, weakened final 1f
led until 3f out, ridden 2f out, no extra final 1f

Sudden Flight
chased leader, led under 2f out, headed final 1f, rallied, just failed
prominent, challenged 2f out, hung right over 1f out, led final 1f, headed close home
close up, every chance under 2f out, not quicken final 100 yds
rear, never dangerous (heavy)

Hucklesbrook Wind surgery since last outing ?

Michael231 · 2026-07-27T17:43:33+0100

My take on the 7.28.

2/5 Stall 13	IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields 🌦 Acceptable going (Good to firm) 252 days — very long absence Distance winner Weight up 5lbs Trainer 18% at Windsor (8/45) +-0.6	40% Moderate	6.35	ELIMINATED D
14	Star Chorus h M Murphy / Rob Hornby	10	84	17 17.0	134	17	#10	Hold-Up 0% FR / 100% HU 1/10 1 runs	⚠ 2/5 Stall 10	IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields ⏱ struggles in true-run races (0/3 hot races) 🌦 Going stretch (Good to firm) Slight class rise (Cls 4→3) 17 days — good preparation Distance winner Weight down 8lbs ✓ Trainer 12% at Windsor (2/16) +1.0	40% Moderate	4.92	ELIMINATED D

Kraldrew · 2026-07-27T17:50:24+0100

Hucklesbrook Sudden Flight for me

Sullybomb · 2026-07-27T17:52:42+0100

I'm more than happy to be taking on Amazonian Dream tonight, surprised it's Fav to be honest. Much deeper race than LTO.

Michael231 · 2026-07-27T18:03:38+0100

A bronze race today. I didn't put it up as seems when I do they lose. So after time
17:50Follow AtTheRaces On X Restricted Maiden Fillies StakesWindsor • Flat • 10f • Good to firm • Class 4

BRONZE FILTER — 7-12f · 5 runners · 3.5 odds — historically 39% win rate, +54% ROI · 2 WARNINGS
SLIGHTLY UNBALANCED • Weight range: 124–133lbs (9lbs spread) • Midpoint: 128.5lbs • Median weight (126lbs) is 2.5lbs from midpoint — treat Bowers with moderate caution • Median OR: 67 (OR ✓ = at/above median)
🏟 Windsor: Right-handed • Favoured draw: Low • Distance 10f+ — draw influence significantly reduced
Right-handed figure-of-eight. Low draws slightly favoured.
Pace Map — Expected Early PositionsModerate pace expected
Front Runner
None
Prominent
Lucy The Wire
50% FR • Stall 4
Versatile
Ziata
0% FR • Stall 3
Hold-Up
Sweet Horizon
0% FR • Stall 2
1 prominent racer(s) likely to set a workable gallop without it turning into a speed battle.
Watch: Ziata (Stall 3), Lucy The Wire (Stall 4)

#	Horse	Draw	OR	Odds	Wgt	DSLR	Bowers	Pace Profile	Draw Score	Bonuses	KNN	Final Score	Verdict
1	Ziata G Tutty / Rossa Ryan	3	67 ✓	3.5 3.5	126	40	#1	Versatile 0% FR / 0% HU 5/10 1 runs	— 3/5 Stall 3	IV 2.12 (Strong) — small fields ✓ ⏱ copes with true pace (2/2 hot races) 🌦 Going stretch (Good to firm) 3rd last run 40 days — within sweet spot Beaten fav Same/similar weight +2.5	0% Poor	8.2	TOP PICK BF
2	Lucy The Wire p James Owen / Oisin Murphy	4	0	4 4.0	133	8	#3	Prominent 50% FR / 0% HU 7/10 6 runs	— 3/5 Stall 4	IV 1.06 (Average) 🌦 Going stretch (Good to firm) Slight class rise (Cls 5→4) 8 days — ideal freshness Beaten fav Trainer 12% at Windsor (3/26) +1.3	0% Poor	4.33	NOT BOWERS BUT! BF
3	Sweet Horizon b Tom Clover / D Egan	2	0	2.1 2.1	126	10	#2	Hold-Up 0% FR / 100% HU 0/10 1 runs	— 3/5 Stall 2	2nd last run 10 days — ideal freshness Same/similar weight Trainer 18% at Windsor (4/22) +2.3	0% Poor	2.99	NOT BOWERS BUT!
4	Star Suepreme Lemos Souza / Lewis Edmunds	1	0	67 67.0	124	188	#4	Prominent 50% FR / 0% HU 9/10 2 runs	— 3/5 Stall 1	—	—	—	MARKET REJECT
5	Hotel California D Menuisier / Saffie Osborne	5	0	13 13.0	128	88

Michael231 · 2026-07-27T18:12:36+0100

Will have to do the 7.28 from the computer as not working on the phone

DuckandDive · 2026-07-27T18:41:42+0100

ATR keep updating their site.

New tab called Quick Form.

Paul Brown · 2026-07-27T19:00:36+0100

Paul Brown said:
27.07.26
I'm out tomorrow visiting but this looks atrappy race;

Balanced Handicap Assessment
Mathematical Parameters

Total Weight Spread: 17 OR points (90 top to 73 bottom) / 11 lbs actual physical weight carried (9-12 down to 9-1).

Mathematical Middle Weight: OR 81.5 (equivalent to approximately 9-5.5 carried).

Actual Middle Tier: Runner 7 (Brosay at 9-9 / OR 85) and Runner 8 (Dandana at 9-9 / OR 90) in racecard order. The median rating of the 14-runner field sits at OR 85.0 (9-9 carried).

Race Classification
Compressed Handicap ("Trap Race"): The actual median of the field (OR 85) sits 3.5 lbs higher than the mathematical midpoint (OR 81.5). 10 of the 14 runners (71% of the field) are tightly jammed within 7 lbs of top weight (OR 83–90), with only Amazonian Dream sitting significantly lower on OR 73 (offset by carrying a 6 lb penalty). This heavy concentration near top weight indicates the handicapper views the core of the field as virtually identical, creating potential volatility where race flow and draw bias will play outsized roles.

19:28 Windsor
Class 3
6 Furlong
No. Draw Horse OR Diff. Odds Rating
8
11
Dandana
90
0
26
26
1
6
Hucklesbrook
88
2
11
13
2
5
Sudden Flight
87
3
5
8
3
8
Uncle Don
87
3
9
12
4
4
Another Abbott
86
4
10
14
5
9
Nad Alshiba Green
86
4
12
16
6
2
Willem Twee
85
5
17
22
7
3
Brosay
85
5
13
18
13
12
Regional Rock
85
5
4
9
9
10
Star Chorus
84
6
41
47
10
14
Ancient State
83
7
13
20
11
1
Mesaafi
81
9
13
22
12
13
Maelstrom
81
9
26
35
14
7
Amazonian Dream
73
17
5.5
22.5
Median
85
Balanced

No.	Draw	Horse	Age	Today OR	ratings
1	6	Hucklesbrook	4	80	81.8
2	5	Sudden Flight	4	87	82.5
4	4	Another Abbot	4	86	83.5
5	9	Nad Alshiba Green	4	86	78.8
6	2	Willem Twee	7	85	88.2
7	3	Brosay	4	85	84.5
8	11	Dandana	3	90	77.8
9	10	Star Chorus	4	84	80.7
10	14	Ancient State	4	83	81.4
11	1	Mesaafi	5	81	83.2
12	13	Maelstrom	4	81	79.5
13	12	Regional Rock	3	85	75.2
14	7	Amazonian Dream	7	77	84.1

Michael231 · 2026-07-27T19:14:37+0100

19:28 Fitzdares Sprint Series Handicap Windsor • Flat • 6f • Good to firm • Class 3

SLIGHTLY UNBALANCED • Weight range: 127–138lbs (11lbs spread) • Midpoint: 132.5lbs • Median weight (135.0lbs) is 2.5lbs from midpoint — treat Bowers with moderate caution • Median OR: 85 (OR ✓ = at/above median)

🏟 Windsor: Right-handed • Favoured draw: Low • Sprint distance — draw at full effect
Right-handed figure-of-eight. Low draws slightly favoured.

Pace Map — Expected Early Positions Very hot pace expected

Front Runner

Regional Rock
67% FR • Stall 12
Sudden Flight
100% FR • Stall 5
Ancient State
100% FR • Stall 14
Mesaafi
100% FR • Stall 1
Uncle Don
100% FR • Stall 8
Brosay
67% FR • Stall 3
Dandana
80% FR • Stall 11
Hucklesbrook
100% FR • Stall 6

Prominent

Amazonian Dream
50% FR • Stall 7
Maelstrom
50% FR • Stall 13

Versatile

Nad Alshiba Green
0% FR • Stall 9
Willem Twee
11% FR • Stall 2

Hold-Up

Another Abbot
0% FR • Stall 4
Star Chorus
0% FR • Stall 10

8 front runners want to lead — likely to contest a fast, hard-fought early pace that could set it up for hold-up horses to finish best.
Watch: Another Abbot (Stall 4), Star Chorus (Stall 10)

#	Horse	Draw	OR	Odds	Wgt	DSLR	Bowers	Pace Profile	Draw Score	Bonuses	KNN	Final Score	Verdict
1	Regional Rock R M Beckett / Rossa Ryan	12	85 ✓	5.5 5.5	130	31	#6	Front Runner 67% FR / 0% HU 10/10 3 runs	⚠ 2/5 Stall 12	IV 3.24 (Strong) — medium fields ✓ ⏱ copes with true pace (2/2 hot races) 🌦 Ideal going (Good to firm) ✓ 2nd last run \| Consistent placer Class rise (Cls 5→3) 31 days — within sweet spot Course winner \| Distance winner \| Beaten fav Weight down 7lbs ✓ Trainer 16% at Windsor (5/31) +5.5	40% Moderate	12.65	TOP PICK BF\|CD
2	Amazonian Dream p B R Millman / Oisin Murphy	7	73	6 6.0	127	7	#14	Prominent 50% FR / 0% HU 9/10 2 runs	— 3/5 Stall 7	IV 2.03 (Strong) 🌦 Ideal going (Good to firm) ✓ Won last run \| Consistent placer Class rise (Cls 5→3) 7 days — ideal freshness Course winner \| Distance winner Weight down 12lbs ✓ +5.2	40% Moderate	11.68	NOT BOWERS BUT! CD
3	Sudden Flight p R Hughes / Finley Marsh	5	87 ✓	7.5 7.5	137	27	#3	Front Runner 100% FR / 0% HU 9/10 1 runs	— 3/5 Stall 5	IV 2.85 (Strong) ⏱ copes with true pace (3/3 hot races) 🌦 Acceptable going (Good to firm) 2nd last run \| Consistent placer 27 days — good preparation Distance winner Weight up 4lbs Trainer 18% at Windsor (8/44) +3.8	20% Weak	10.81	CONTENDER D
4	Ancient State e/c \| t Adam Kirby / William Carson	14	83	11 11.0	133	17	#11	Front Runner 100% FR / 0% HU 10/10 1 runs	⚠ 2/5 Stall 14	⏱ copes with true pace (1/2 hot races) 🌦 Good going match (Good to firm) Won prev run Class rise (Cls 5→3) 17 days — good preparation Distance winner Weight down 5lbs ✓ +2.7	40% Moderate	9.74	ELIMINATED D
5	Mesaafi b R Burdon / J Mitchell	1	81	13 13.0	131	16	#12	Front Runner 100% FR / 0% HU 9/10 1 runs	4/5 Stall 1	IV 0.71 (Poor) — medium fields 🌦 Good going match (Good to firm) 16 days — good preparation Course winner \| Distance winner Same/similar weight +2.2	20% Weak	9.11	ELIMINATED C\|D
6	Uncle Don R M H Cowell / Jack Callan	8	87 ✓	11 11.0	137	42	#4	Front Runner 100% FR / 0% HU 9/10 2 runs	— 3/5 Stall 8	IV 1.42 (Good) — medium fields 🌦 Acceptable going (Good to firm) 42 days — within sweet spot Beaten fav 3lb claim Weight up 7lbs +1.67	20% Weak	8.66	WATCH BF
7	Another Abbot t W J Haggas / P J Dobbs	4	86 ✓	15 15.0	136	17	#7	Hold-Up 0% FR / 50% HU 4/10 2 runs	4/5 Stall 4	🌦 Good going match (Good to firm) 17 days — good preparation Distance winner Weight up 1lbs Trainer 21% at Windsor (9/43) +2.2	40% Moderate	7.55	WATCH D
8	Brosay b Charlie Pike / Kieren Fox	3	85 ✓	17 17.0	135	16	#9	Front Runner 67% FR / 0% HU 8/10 3 runs	4/5 Stall 3	IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields ⏱ struggles in true-run races (0/3 hot races) 🌦 Going stretch (Good to firm) 16 days — good preparation Course winner \| Distance winner Weight up 1lbs +0.8	40% Moderate	7.51	ELIMINATED CD
9	Dandana S E Crisford / D Egan	11	90 ✓	17 17.0	135	45	#1	Front Runner 80% FR / 0% HU 9/10 5 runs	⚠ 2/5 Stall 11	IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields ⏱ struggles in true-run races (0/3 hot races) 🌦 Going stretch (Good to firm) Slight class drop (Cls 2→3) ✓ 45 days — within sweet spot Distance winner Same/similar weight +0.4	20% Weak	7.35	WATCH D
10	Hucklesbrook R A Teal / Lewis Edmunds	6	88 ✓	11 11.0	138	80	#2	Front Runner 100% FR / 0% HU 9/10 1 runs	— 3/5 Stall 6	IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields ⏱ struggles in true-run races (0/3 hot races) 🌦 Ideal going (Good to firm) ✓ 80 days — slightly long absence Distance winner Weight up 7lbs Trainer 12% at Windsor (3/24) +0.1	0% Poor	7.13	WATCH D
11	Nad Alshiba Green C G Cox / Jack Nicholls	9	86 ✓	11 11.0	136	63	#5	Versatile 0% FR / 0% HU 5/10 1 runs	⚠ 2/5 Stall 9	IV 1.81 (Strong) — medium fields ✓ ⏱ copes with true pace (2/3 hot races) 🌦 Going stretch (Good to firm) Slight class drop (Cls 2→3) ✓ 63 days — slightly long absence 3lb claim Weight up 12lbs Trainer 21% at Windsor (6/28) +1.65	0% Poor	7.06	WATCH
12	Willem Twee v D J Coakley / George Bass	2	85 ✓	15 15.0	135	112	#8	Versatile 11% FR / 44% HU 4/10 9 runs	4/5 Stall 2	IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields ⏱ copes with true pace (1/2 hot races) 3rd last run \| Consistent placer 112 days — long absence Distance winner Same/similar weight Trainer 14% at Windsor (2/14) +1.5	0% Poor	6.81	ELIMINATED D
13	Maelstrom t1 S C Williams / Gina Mangan	13	81	17 17.0	131	252	#13	Prominent 50% FR / 0% HU 10/10 6 runs	⚠ 2/5 Stall 13	IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields 🌦 Acceptable going (Good to firm) 252 days — very long absence Distance winner Weight up 5lbs Trainer 18% at Windsor (8/45) +-0.6	40% Moderate	6.35	ELIMINATED D
14	Star Chorus h M Murphy / Rob Hornby	10	84	17 17.0	134	17	#10	Hold-Up 0% FR / 100% HU 1/10 1 runs	⚠ 2/5 Stall 10	IV 0.0 (Poor) — medium fields ⏱ struggles in true-run races (0/3 hot races) 🌦 Going stretch (Good to firm) Slight class rise (Cls 4→3) 17 days — good preparation Distance winner Weight down 8lbs ✓ Trainer 12% at Windsor (2/16) +1.0	40% Moderate	4.92	ELIMINATED D

Michael231 · 2026-07-27T19:18:35+0100

I would go with Regional Rock as doesn't seem to have any minus question marks.
And Sudden Flight.

Paul Brown · 2026-07-27T19:21:56+0100

Info only; just ai looking at the draw for me ;
he draw bias at Windsor over 6 furlongs (Good to Firm) looks fairly mild overall, with a slight preference for middle-to-higher draws in bigger fields.Key Takeaways from the A/E Grid:

Low draws (1-4) generally perform around or below expectations. Draw 1 is often close to 1.0 in smaller fields but weakens in bigger fields (e.g., 0.35 in 12-runner, 0.30 in 14-runner). Draw 3 and 4 show inconsistency but are rarely standout positive.
Middle draws (5-8) are the most consistently solid. Several strong A/E figures appear here, especially in larger fields:
- Draw 6 and 8 frequently show values >1.0.
- Draw 8 has some of the strongest individual cells (1.52 in 9-runners, 1.20 in 8-runners, 1.87 in 14-runners).
High draws (9+) are mixed but show some standout positives, particularly Draw 12 (very strong in bigger fields: 1.55 in 12-runners, 1.48 in 13-runners, 1.95 in 15-runners). Draw 11 and some others (e.g., Draw 5/6 in 15/16-runner races) also pop up positively.

Overall Pattern (Good to Firm):

No extreme bias, but the data suggests middle-to-high draws have a slight edge, especially as the field size grows beyond 10-12 runners. Low draws can be disadvantaged, likely due to the Windsor straight track layout and how the ground rides on GF conditions (horses towards the stand side/middle often travel better).
The strongest signals come in 12+ runner races, where you see more A/E values significantly above 1.0 in draws 4–8 and 11–12.

Paul Brown · 2026-07-27T19:46:16+0100

DuckandDive said:
ATR keep updating their site.

New tab called Quick Form.

View attachment 169837

Am I correct in saying your 2nd top was the winner ?

DuckandDive · 2026-07-27T22:05:41+0100

Paul Brown said:
Am I correct in saying your 2nd top was the winner ?

Once you take out the NR, it was next on the short-list, so in effect, it was.

pawras · 2026-07-27T22:43:17+0100

Made another update and added the 30 day prb2 overall rating for trainers and jockeys on the card, data up to and inc. 25/07/26

Sullybomb · 2026-07-27T22:46:28+0100

Sullybomb said:
I'm more than happy to be taking on Amazonian Dream tonight, surprised it's Fav to be honest. Much deeper race than LTO.

Just to add a little context as to why....

Amazonian Dream incidentally ran to a TFR of 81.

DuckandDive · 2026-07-28T06:59:54+0100

pawras said:
Made another update and added the 30 day prb2 overall rating for trainers and jockeys on the card, data up to and inc. 25/07/26

View attachment 169846

Now you're cooking!....

DuckandDive · 2026-07-28T07:08:21+0100

Great review and feedback, all of it's a good read. I particularly like the projected "needs" figure compared to the runners best figure.

Pre-race, if race factors suit the runner well, then achieving the target would put it into a short-list.

tony spencer · 2026-07-28T07:14:54+0100

Sullybomb said:
Just to add a little context as to why....

View attachment 169847
View attachment 169848
View attachment 169849
View attachment 169850

Amazonian Dream incidentally ran to a TFR of 81.

tony spencer · 2026-07-28T07:16:15+0100

Great work Sullybomb have you reviewed the Goodwood races today?

Sullybomb · 2026-07-28T07:16:48+0100

Appreciate that

DuckandDive

19:28 Windsor
Class 3
6 Furlong
No.	Draw	Horse	OR	Diff.	Odds	Rating
8	11	Dandana	90	0	26	26
1	6	Hucklesbrook	88	2	11	13
2	5	Sudden Flight	87	3	5	8
3	8	Uncle Don	87	3	9	12
4	4	Another Abbott	86	4	10	14
5	9	Nad Alshiba Green	86	4	12	16
6	2	Willem Twee	85	5	17	22
7	3	Brosay	85	5	13	18
13	12	Regional Rock	85	5	4	9
9	10	Star Chorus	84	6	41	47
10	14	Ancient State	83	7	13	20
11	1	Mesaafi	81	9	13	22
12	13	Maelstrom	81	9	26	35
14	7	Amazonian Dream	73	17	5.5	22.5

		Median	85	Balanced

Eric Bowers narrowing the field

Colt

Gelding

Colt

Colt

Gelding

Gelding

Mare

Colt

Balanced Handicap Assessment​

Mathematical Parameters​

Race Classification​

Gelding

Gelding

Colt

Colt

Mare

Stallion

Colt

Mare

Mare

Colt

Colt

Colt

Balanced Handicap Assessment

Mathematical Parameters

Race Classification