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Double Trouble

Well, managed to get the 1-0, 0-0 up last night and a profit of 42 points although for an unknown reason Bet365 also credited me with 5pts win for half of a CS double that never was; they voided the 2nd part of the 1-0, 1-0 and put the stake on the single so returning an additional 5pts - which will not be counted of course, inexplicable.

At least the Argentinian Metro B lived up to it's reputation as being reliably unreliable - if that makes sense? Many of the games ran into 8 minutes of added on time; my first match ran to 9 minutes and half expecting then to see 10 minutes the next information added; the website counter threw a wobbly and wouldn't show the additional 4 minutes until it finally turned FT, the 2nd game thankfully put me out of my misery after just three minutes, it could of course simply be a comms issue for confirmation by the sites and whatever feed they use. During the 8 minutes of added on time Atlanta scored a 3rd goal thus ruining my prediction and Almalgro also scored a 2nd credited to the 90th minute. A move back to more familiar leagues my prove less frustrating and a note taken of late scoring teams and those that concede late also. Plenty of work to be done with more ideas on how to reduce risk yet maximise any potential. The Sportivo match was a strange one, 2-0 down HT to come back to draw, can't track any of these beyond time and current scores, many I fear do not go in play either as so little liquidity and interest - something to ensure is an option come the new season.

Much of the results still down to good fortune rather than decent prediction I think and work needed to hone and marry the skill required to be able to turn this into reliable predictions and profit.

John
 
tonyafc tonyafc thanks very much Tony, you're right in what you say, the main problem I have (now past tense) was that I HAD a lot of horse race systems I have had to collate data on, One of them every single day for the last two years and countless spreadsheets - a laying system (it has to be taken live).
I have just had a review and decided to temporarily suspend about eight of them many with multiple sheets that need updating at the start and finish of the day. I'm a natural hoarder you see, the systems tie me up so much it'll be a blessed relief to let go of them, profitable though they are (small beer). I'll just keep one that quickly helps one other system out. This should free me up quite a bit to sort out more of the footy as some areas look more promising now, perhaps my heads a bit clearer. In fact I took a quick look at an idea earlier and will try to run it live as soon as I get a run at a decent set of league games - S. America should do fine, it's CS at HT in doubles; I have recent data for 36, not a great deal but a start, compounding from multiple small points banks I reckon four or five banks of a tenner with five points in each will hopefully compound quite rapidly, it saves waiting over 100 minutes of anguish if it holds steady as it looks to have done thus far.
I have a few other ideas that I also need to look at which need time thrown at them which I alluded to in a previous post.
I am in the same camp as Lee, I'll give it my best shot this season and then if it doesn't work out, gracefully bow out of the footy (if I can let go......!)

ATB, John
 
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I have a feeling this will not be the ideal day to begin posting a HT CS test although my last first post test I couldn't have wished for more. Today's Brazil Serie A matches appear to heavily favour the home sides; ideally I'd like to see a little less bias - but hey ho....
I'll keep this on the same thread as to not fill the forum thread up with bits and pieces everywhere.
This test simply looks at the possible first half time only CS's for two games at a time- so done as 'cross doubles' essentially. They certainly do not pay anything near the potential of the FT CS's, in fact just above Evens so the SR will need to keep up. For now I will bet them live and keep the stakes very low, I have made up a simple dutch calculator to help with the staking. It'll cover only the 0-0 0-0, 0-0 1-0, 1-0 0-0 and 1-0 1-0 (4 possibles) ; in some cases the away side may be a bit stronger and I'll switch one or both of the 1-0's around to 0-1 etc. as and when.

HT
19/07/15 Brazil A Atlético PR Vs Chapecoense 1X *
19/07/15 Brazil A Palmeiras Vs Santos 1
19/07/15 Brazil A Fluminense Vs Vasco da Gama 1
19/07/15 Brazil A Figueirense Vs Coritiba 1X *
19/07/15 Brazil A Sport Recife Vs São Paulo 1X
19/07/15 Brazil A Cruzeiro Vs Avaí 1X Under
19/07/15 Brazil A Joinville Vs Ponte Preta X2 Under

* starred games are the two I'll cover with the HT double today. Odds are around 2.24
Under = FT Under 2.5 goals for today (haven't taken them on though)

John
 
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Yes, not bad that one still lacking good data for both approaches though; the first is a high reward this latter angle a bit more of a risk. The first FT CS's can take a few hits after a win it doesn't need to have too many bets whereas this HT view will have to be higher SR and higher churn (turnover), not sure if either method will ultimately reap rewards yet as we have comparatively little data. A few more ideas to work with now and some irons in the fire so to speak. Cross fingers time! Dropped all of my own GG stuff for now to concentrate on the footy for a while.


Cheers, John
 
Not too bad yesterday but in all fairness I did have two stabs at most of them so I covered most options and probably harder not to get them wrong ; the odds would not have been very good taking them as singles it would have needed the doubles to make a go of them . First crack at Half Time Correct scores managed to do ok thankfully and Bet365 paid out a single on double again whilst voiding the other half of the 1-0 1-0 I think it was. I daren't query them about it, I'll just be adding any extra back into the pot.
I will be taking a look at the Asian Hcaps asap to follow up my curiosity with finding a 'hidden information' angle.

John
 
There was not much I really fancied taking on tonight, a few came up that might be worth doing a WW, WD DW on however the odds are about Even money for Argentinos and Estudiantes paired this can be improved upon to about 3.50 by biasing the stakes to the WW and simply putting cover bets to return stakes on the WD and DW.


20/07/15 Arg Primera Crucero del Norte - Estudiantes L.P X2
20/07/15 Arg Primera Argentinos Jrs - Union de Santa Fe 1x U2.5

The AH odds are around 1.72 for a +0.50 double on the pair.

John
 
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Just a quick summary to clean the thread up with some of the ideas that I have for this coming season, most of which are scattered amongst my previous inane ramblings.

1. Under 2.5 goals as singles (basically my main test before joining UKBF); lowish risk: very low returns as the method tends to favour teams with low odds, strike rate (SR) really needs to be above 75% to show a profit. Basically derived by Poisson analyses but also by reference to any online data I can get my hands on i.e low scoring leagues, H2H data, teams Under/Over statistics, recent/previous performance markers etc.

2. Under 2.5 goals this time as doubles; I have had some success with these, the multiplication factor is a real plus if I can get both of the sides of the bet tucked away. Odds in the general region of 2.10-2.50. One of the main problems here and with all other multiples we submit is the bookies overound; what happens when taking a double with Ca. 8% 'built in' is that One multiplies in more overound i.e. even less value. Method as Under 2.5 goals singles for analysis.

3. Correct Score (CS) Full Time doubles basically covering scores up to 1-1, this usually covers seven permutations but I have done eight on occasion; whether there is a need for one additional CS remains to be seen in testing this coming season. The method is usually favouring home sides with (on paper at least) a slight strength advantage to reduce the possibility of any shocks; some success so far but needs more verve on my part. Method predominantly derived from Poisson analyses and study: Good risk to reward ratio when everything falls into place; cover bet the CS's with an Under 2.5 goal double just enough to return stakes on the CS score, generally 6 to 7 pts. The method; when successful returns anything between 42 and 55 pts for a 13.5 point outlay. These can be placed on Betfair but they reduce the odds on this type of bet; Bet365 odds are usually the best available and most widely available also.

4. Half Time CS (HT CS's) covering two matches in 4 bets, 0-0, 0-0, 1-0 0-0, 0-0 1-0 and 1-1 1-1 using a dutch bet strategy of 1 point. Only one bet tried so far and odds are going to be around the 2.25 mark so a better then 50% SR will see us well in profit.
I had a thought today that I could pre-empt a win (dangerous I know) by using whatever the projected profit on the bet would be to place a dutch bet for the entire amount on the Team of my Choice (Favourite) and the Draw for the HT situation, The bet will need two bookies to offer the match with the relevant dutched stakes placed one on each site.
Edit: rushed my sums: this does make a small profit however it may not be worth the additional risk, very much a work in progress... J

5. Asian Handicaps (AH), I have only really just begun looking at these this week, it appears a slightly better option than a Win-Draw-Win (WDW) strategy as an AH of 0.5 One receives an additional winning outcome if both matches end in a draw; still very much a 'thinking cap on' idea; so Both teams win, either one wins or other draws it's match, or both draw would be winning outcomes in contrast to the the WDW approach. One of tonight's games in a post above pays 0.72 pts for the correct outcome. The WDW can be modified in several ways to bias stakes to One's chosen outcome to enhance returns or to maximise one i.e. the Win-Win, and simply return stakes on the Win-Draw or the Draw-Win. Depending on individual odds returns can range from Even money profit to Ca. 2/1-ish.

In most cases a level staking method will be the ideal, the HT doubles I did think to compound from small banks with just a handful of points in each to compound rapidly (if successful) before tapering off to level stakes.
I am still trying to find a robust and trustworthy method for all of these approaches and this coming season should allow for plenty of experimentation.


John
 
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No joy in the first AH system test; I substituted my first choice as it had just KO for the third choice which lost (2nd choice ok) , no problems though I'll stick rigidly to best bets whilst running them live through the coming season.
There are some Argentinian Met B games this evening and I reckon some might be worth a good look, I hope to run them through the tests to see which system if any, they might be best suited to.



J
 
A tentative foray back into S. America tonight

21/07/05 Arg Primera B Metro Deportivo Riestra - Deportivo Morón 1X U
21/07/05 Arg Primera B Metro Flandria - Deportivo Armenio 1X
21/07/05 Arg Primera B Metro Estudiantes de Caseros - Fénix 1X U * HTCS/FTCS
21/07/05 Arg Primera B Metro Almirante Brown - Sportivo Italiano 1
21/07/05 Arg Primera B Metro Colegiales - Atlanta X2
21/07/05 Arg Primera B Metro Brown de Adrogué - Comunicaciones 1X U
21/07/05 Arg Primera B Metro Barracas Central - Platense 1X U * HTCS/FTCS
21/07/05 Arg Primera B Metro Defensores de Belgrano - Villa San Carlos 1

The bookies do not seen too keen to offer +/- 0.5 on the AH for any of these matches; one can always tell when they feel there's no money in it for them when they either decline to quote or restrict options on a market and the converse is true for exotic markets where they can make a killing I feel.

ATB, John
 
Apologies for all of the DC's by the way, my method of analysis isn't really cut out to narrow 12X down it seems. I have taken the HTCS on tonight with the profit from the first attempt So Estudiantes and Barracas matches are paired tonight.
I have tried another little rating method to try to 'clean up' the Poisson data, the never ending search for footy system nirvana never ceases.......:lol:

I managed to have a look around some of the footy threads on here today and it looks as if footysystems (Lee) has it nailed - I have a lot of catching up to do and much to try to aspire to as well! Will have to Dyb Dyb Dyb Dob Dob Dob until the cows come home to try to contribute as much back to the forum as Lee has. Well done again footysystems footysystems , first time I have had chance to glance at all your hard work!

ATB, John
 
Sundays Results round up

19/07/15 Brazil A Atlético PR Vs Chapecoense 1X * Won 1-0 (+0.23 pts)
19/07/15 Brazil A Palmeiras Vs Santos 1 Won 1-0 (+0.85)
19/07/15 Brazil A Fluminense Vs Vasco da Gama 1 Lost 1-2 (-1.0 pts)
19/07/15 Brazil A Figueirense Vs Coritiba 1X * Won (Drew 0-0) (+0.48 pts)
19/07/15 Brazil A Sport Recife Vs São Paulo 1X Won 2-0 (+0.33 pts)
19/07/15 Brazil A Cruzeiro Vs Avaí 1X Under. Won, Unders Won (Drew 1-1) (U +0.85 pts: DC +0.07 pts)
19/07/15 Brazil A Joinville Vs Ponte Preta X2 Under. Won Won (Drew 1-1) (U + 0.55 pts; DC +0.45 pts)

* starred games are the two HT double Odds are 2.24. Games 1, Won 1 : +1.24 pts
Under = FT Under 2.5 goals. Games 2, Won 2, pts +1.40 (+0.85, +0.55)
Singles: 2, W1, L1 -0.20 pts.
DC: Games 5: W5 L0 +1.56 pts
Totals: Games 10; Won 9 Lost 1 pts: +4.0

Monday
20/07/15 Arg Primera Crucero del Norte - Estudiantes L.P X2 Won 1-2
20/07/15 Arg Primera Argentinos Jrs - Union de Santa Fe 1x U2.5 Lost 1-2

Games 1 W0 L1 -1.0 pts

John
 
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Last evenings results

21/07/05 Arg Primera B Metro Deportivo Riestra - Deportivo Morón 1X U Won 0.36, Won 0.50)
21/07/05 Arg Primera B Metro Flandria - Deportivo Armenio 1X Won (0.06)
21/07/05 Arg Primera B Metro Estudiantes de Caseros - Fénix 1X U * HTCS/FTCS (Won 0.17, Won 0.5, Lost -1.0)
21/07/05 Arg Primera B Metro Almirante Brown - Sportivo Italiano 1 (Won +1.15)
21/07/05 Arg Primera B Metro Colegiales - Atlanta X2 (Won +0.56)
21/07/05 Arg Primera B Metro Brown de Adrogué - Comunicaciones 1X U (Won +0.13, Lost -1.0)
21/07/05 Arg Primera B Metro Barracas Central - Platense 1X U * HTCS/FTCS (Won +0.33), Lost -1.0, (Lost )
21/07/05 Arg Primera B Metro Defensores de Belgrano - Villa San Carlos 1 (Won +0.55)

HTDC games 1 Lost 1 (-1.0 pts)
DC games 6: Won 6 Lost 0 pts +1.53
Singles games 2 Won 2 Lost 0 pts +1.70
Unders Games 4 Won 2 Lost 2 pts -1.0

Overall Bets 13 Won 10 Lost 3. +1.23 pts

Not really a very good set, profit margins were small; perhaps as could be expected on the DC. Sunk by an early Fenix goal for the HTCS, they are usually solid on the road without doing anything daft, I suppose I should feel flattered that I thought that they could hold high flying Estudiates but I don't somehow. Also let down by a late winner (90th minute again) from Brown de Adrogué.
Hopefully results will pick up, maybe the 'noise' filter for the analysis will help and perhaps assist to weed out the bets with porrer profit margins that are open to wider results swings, and thus the losses, which take more out of the bank than the good ones put in? For sure the big hitter of FTCS's looks to be the one to try to nail.

ATB, John
 
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B Metro revisited......

22/07/15 Arg Primera B Metro Deportivo Merlo - Deportivo Español 1X
22/07/15 Arg Primera B Metro UAI Urquiza - Almagro X2
22/07/15 Arg Primera B Metro Acassuso - Tristán Suárez X2

Have a few things to finalise so will post actual strategies to be used on these tonight in a short while.

John
 
I have taken on Almagro and Tristán Suárez in a FTCS. I quite fancy the fact that both of their recent form and form away from home especially could be enough to tip the games in my favour, also baring in mind they have had better opposition in recent games than both of their opponents have had recently tonight so I hope that they can edge these matches. I have biased the CS in their favour:

0-0 0-0
0-1 0-0
1-1 0-0
0-0 0-1
0-1 0-1
0-0 1-1 and
1-1 1-1
the Under 2.5 has a 6.5pt cover bet.

I have also done the same two teams in a Asian Hcap double +0.5 each for 1pt at combination odds of 2.13.

And asking for trouble I have covered both teams in a DNB double which is around 3.37.

John
 
Wahay! I welcome any profit but I may cut down on the reasoning for the bets as neither fancies could break the deadlock in their matches.
Profit +42.4 pts includes the 7.4 pts for the Under 2.5 goals double.
Overall a little bit of a buffer now: +86.5 pts
Only thing now is to try harder to repeat these small victories.

DNB's stakes were returned on the double as both drew so: 0 pts

AH +0.5 double: + 1.14 pts
Pleased with this, however the margins are so fine I begin to query the value of the bet.

A satisfactory evening playing just for pennies.

B Metro revisited......Results round up

22/07/15 Arg Primera B Metro Deportivo Merlo - Deportivo Español 1X Won 1-0
22/07/15 Arg Primera B Metro UAI Urquiza - Almagro X2 Draw 0-0
22/07/15 Arg Primera B Metro Acassuso - Tristán Suárez X2 Draw 0-0




ATB, John
 
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