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db standard times and ratings

Again, little difference here with the Lingfield times you provide and mine.

Whatever you are doing is making for a standard a little quicker than mine but again as per Chelmsford City, there's more or less nothing in the seconds per furlong calculation.

1622066839858.png

My standards up to 10 May 2021 give these ratings for Lingfield.

1622066934099.png

To keep it to those who have run in the last 12 months, here's a top 50 performances in that period. Nothing produced since the lockdown would be in the top 20 of all Lingfield all-weather performances, which is interesting. The best 2yo in this time appears to be Bedford Flyer who produced an 85 in November last year and has since won a handicap at York off 90. Enjoy.

1622067081400.png

I'll finish the other courses in my own thread but its nice to see people working standard times and equally nice to be in relative proximity to others in terms of how they are delivering them.
 

db1

Yearling
Dundalk now complete, the 2m time was the only one I had far fewer times to go off so not sure how far off I potentially am with that one. My office app isn't working so times I have written below;

Furlongs/yards/time/Lbs per Length
5/1100/57.45/3.48
6/1320/70.13/2.85
7/1540/82.16/2.43
8/1760/94.78/2.11
10.68/2350/130.18/1.54
12/2640/147.35/1.36
16/3520/202.53/0.99

Now I guess what's left to do is start rating performances at these courses. I think I will start using the latest results first and work my way backwards. I've got results going back to 1/1/2019. I've generated a ratings spreadsheet using the data from HRB, help from fellow member Outlander who's provided a template to use from a previous thread of mine and also reading various methods from other threads like the method TheBluesBrother uses. Let's see how this goes.
 
My office app isn't working
What seems to be the problem, if you are referring to office 2016 etc you can repair it the control panel>programs and features>right click on the office Icon> click and select change then repair, 2 options available I prefer fix online.

Mike.
 

db1

Yearling
It was the app on my mobile, I've been using it when I haven't access to my laptop to do the spreadsheets, just didn't seem to like me trying to load my spreadsheets which was odd. Been perfectly fine up to now. I've reinstalled and restarted in about 5 times and that's seems to have done the trick.
 

db1

Yearling
I've done 2021 ratings for Chelmsford with the last meeting on 20/5/21. 1133 runners rated, sample of the figures are below. I'm hopeful I'm on the right tracks with this. The end column 'form' is just an idea I'm playing around with, trying to establish whether such races were truly run. If they were then they'd have the word 'TRUE' next to it. TONE THE BARONE jumps out straight away. Clear top figure for the year in a truly run race.

Screenshot_20210527-144903_Office.jpg
 
I've done 2021 ratings for Chelmsford with the last meeting on 20/5/21. 1133 runners rated, sample of the figures are below. I'm hopeful I'm on the right tracks with this. The end column 'form' is just an idea I'm playing around with, trying to establish whether such races were truly run. If they were then they'd have the word 'TRUE' next to it. TONE THE BARONE jumps out straight away. Clear top figure for the year in a truly run race.

View attachment 101053
I'm interested in how you use formulas to try and define a truly run race, I have formulas that suggest a flattering performance or one where the horse could be a lot better than his pure rating. Its good going if you can take a figure and place trust in it.

Though I've yet to apply ratings to future racecards, one thought of mine is not to trust a figure well over and above what else its achieved until it shows evidence that it can repeat, or exceed it. Later on I'll apply my own figures for Chelmsford in 2021 and see how they compare with yours.
 
D db1 here's my list of top performers at Chelmsford City in 2021. We both agree on Tone The Barone and quite a few others near the top.

1622155832431.png

I've taken your top 20 and placed my rating and ranking alongside. I've taken the best rating achieved in each case. Each time I post a list I'm still tweaking the ratings but so far I've only had Tone The Barone producing 100+ at the track.

1622156394144.png

This is great stuff. What's not clear is whether we are broadly agreeing for the right reasons, or if our assessments differ, we are disagreeing for the wrong reasons.
 
Here are your Kempton standard times with mine on the left and the difference per furlong in the final column. We are generally again very consistent in our timings. None of this seems a million miles out to me.

1622157099108.png
 

db1

Yearling
AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75 interesting stuff with regards to our top 20 or so times. I was hoping the top 10 or so would be similar to others, it seems I'm on to a good start so far. I'm abit snowed under today and have a weekend away lined up so not much will get done over the coming days. When I get chance I'll link in the excel spreadsheet I currently use - the base of the template has come from O Outlander from a previous thread which I've tweaked ever so slightly. And in my own inexperienced way I've tried to use the method TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother has which was described and explained in the compiling speed ratings thread. It's all quite new to me this and I'm still learning so it is very encouraging that I'm getting similar ratings to others and also the comments being received I appreciate the time everyone takes to read through the thread and share their thoughts.
 
D db1

Working on the standard times for the AW racecourses can lead you into a false sense of security because you have no rail movements or extreme sets of going conditions you can encounter on the turf.

When and if you start work on the turf standard times, you then have to factor in rail movements and it is quite common to end up with 2 going allowances per meeting when the straight course is riding faster than the round course and vice versa.

Besides that good work.

Mike.
 
AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75 interesting stuff with regards to our top 20 or so times. I was hoping the top 10 or so would be similar to others, it seems I'm on to a good start so far. I'm abit snowed under today and have a weekend away lined up so not much will get done over the coming days. When I get chance I'll link in the excel spreadsheet I currently use - the base of the template has come from O Outlander from a previous thread which I've tweaked ever so slightly. And in my own inexperienced way I've tried to use the method TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother has which was described and explained in the compiling speed ratings thread. It's all quite new to me this and I'm still learning so it is very encouraging that I'm getting similar ratings to others and also the comments being received I appreciate the time everyone takes to read through the thread and share their thoughts.
You are off to a good start if you happy to be comparing yourself to a fellow novice. At the moment I'm just firing figures round the board everywhere. The value of them is as yet unknown but I've wanted a crutch that I can go back to rather than just complete ill informed rubbish.

Its clear on here that if the TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother says "good work" you are doing a lot right because I know from interactions with him he's not the sort to go damning anyone with faint praise. Its a hard learning school.

If I see a horse is 000P0 but it has a 78 figure in there 10 better than anything else in the race and 30 better than its second best I'd rather see that and ask how it was achieved than just consider it as a 0. I might then see it was a load of tosh and disregard it but that's fine. At least its made me that bit more informed.

Like you, I am now away for the weekend. Morecambe, anyone?
 

db1

Yearling
AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75 I've attached the template I use to rate the performances. There's alot to it but alot of columns are just copy and paste from HRB results data. It should have the formula in there too for each column required. The colour coded cells in row 1 are just just filtering and which ones require some manual input etc.The end one named form is the one I'm playing around with to see if the are truly run races, probably used 3 or 4 different ideas in that column so that's not set in stone. GA table in the third tab has come from the thebluebrothers threads.
 

Attachments

  • SpeedFigures_Template.xlsx
    679.4 KB · Views: 12

db1

Yearling
Update: only just getting back to the ratings. Still working on Chelmsford ratings at the moment. I may have come across and outlier. 24/10/2020, Trouser the cash seems to have scored not necessarily a high rating but has performed alot higher than his OR on my ratings. I have him at speed figure 56 this with going allowance included. But an OR at the time of 47. I dont usually get anything performing this high above their OR. Out of curiosity does anyone else have him far as maybe an outlier? I'm trying to spot the error if there is one.
 
D db1 my figures for that race are here. It was a full second quicker than the Division 1 race before it, which I had as unrealistically quick, and I had that particular race running to par. Both 1st and 2nd were 9lb ahead of OR on my scale, and Indian Pursuit won twice since this race, following up quickly, and was rated 62 after his second victory. I don't think these numbers are unrealistic.

1622621449305.png
 

db1

Yearling
Appreciate that, thank you both. At first glance I looked and instantly thought that can't be right, this horse has massively improved. But im glad to see similar results and it wasn't an error I just couldn't spot.
 

db1

Yearling
So I've rated everything for Chelmsford from the first meeting post lockdown in June 2020 up to latest meeting on 31 May 2021. That's 12months worth of ratings compiled, my question to the other speed gurus would be is it worth rating performances prior to the lockdown also? I do have results going back to 1/1/2019 but of how much relevance would they be now? I guess I could rate those and establish some sort of speed par for the course and distances and classes maybe? Anyway. I'll pop down my top 20 performers from the duration mentioned above. Hopefully we all have similar positioning of runners and that would give me much confidence about what I'm doing and partly doing something along the right lines.

Screenshot_20210602-183021_Office.jpg
 
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