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db standard times and ratings

db1

Yearling
Hi All,
Thought I'd create this thread, more for a little record keeping for myself and tracking my own bit of progress. The wealth of knowledge thats been shared in other threads has spurred me on to recently start creating my own speed ratings using RP standard times, but thought I'd give ago at creating my own standard times and rating from there. There's some exceptional work already in similar threads but I'm very inexperienced at all this, I'll try and keep it simple so ill be sticking to AW racing to keep it any help and advice along the way would be very much appreciated. I've spent a fair bit of time at the moment collecting results from HRB, currently have all results going back to 1/1/20 but may need more data. My idea then would be to take winners only time, no 2yo or 3yo winners and olders horses only, hopefully collect around 50-100 of the quickest times at each course and distance and go from there. From reading other thread's, I should look to convert winnings times into times that should be achieved by 100 rated horse at 9st. Information on how to achieve this would help massively! In the meantime I'm sticking to collecting daily results to build up the data. Hopefully I can update this regular with the progress made or trying to make. I've found the whole process so far very fascinating and enjoying learning something new.
 

db1

Yearling
Found it fascinating so far, especially after reading the various threads and the wealth of knowledge in here. Its a challenge I've found slightly addictive so far. Hopefully I can make some sort of progress, I know alot of time will need to be put in and that just adds to the appreciation I have for the speed gurus who do this sort of stuff everyday for every racetrack. Great work.
 
I've found slightly addictive so far.
It can become very addictive going into the realms of obsession which I suffer from.

The advantages are you pick up on performances that go off the scale, like the performance of 4yo filly Lethal Blast (4:55 Lingfield) yesterday who I had shattering her handicap mark by 22lbs she ran so fast in the final furlongs Kerian O'Neill had to sit up in the saddle to slow her down, her final sectionals must have been on par with Bataash.

Mike.
 
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db1

Yearling
Update: I've hit my first issue. So I'm currently working on Chelmsford, I now have all results going back to 3/1/2019 and using the filters of taking the winners times only from horses aged 4yo and upwards and with an OR I have around 60-90 winning times at each distance to play with from 5f to 10f which I could use the top 25 quickest times for each.. however, distances beyond this I'm limited to maybe between 10-20 winning times at each distance which isn't enough data I don't think. Even if I went back a couple more years I'd still be abit short on data for those distances. Any suggestions on how to get around this? Am I filtering too much maybe?
 
D db1 personally I get round it by converting the times of non-winning runners, so if you've got 60-90 winning times you will for an average field of 10 have 600-900 instead. I have amended my sheets to disregard the times of horses who cannot finish within 10 lengths of the winner for 5f, 12 lengths for 6f, and so on. Most people do rely on winning times.

Another thing you could try is to take your times, find the average and standard deviation after getting rid of outliers, and take a random number generator on the standard deviation to run the races over around 1,000 instances. You then disregard all the outliers from the newly generated numbers, and you have a lot more data then to work with. I attach a spreadsheet to show what I mean. Obviously it assumes a normal distribution of winning times etc. Its no good just having 2 or 3 times, the numbers will probably be all over the place.

After trying both, I've found it perfectly adequate to get the times from all runners rather than just the winners.

That's the beauty of this, we are all looking at the same numbers but there are no right or wrong answers, just different interpretations.
 

Attachments

  • GENERATED TIMES.xlsx
    285.9 KB · Views: 17

db1

Yearling
That's the beauty of this, we are all looking at the same numbers but there are no right or wrong answers, just different interpretations.
AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75 totally agree with this.

Another thing you could try is to take your times, find the average and standard deviation after getting rid of outliers, and take a random number generator on the standard deviation to run the races over around 1,000 instances
I do have another spreadsheet with the formulas to covert distances beaten into times so I will have a look at that approach but I think the spreadsheet you attached this way maybe better suited for me going forward, it maybe worth while using this for all race distances anyway? Regardless if I already have enough data for some distances or not, I'll at least have a consistent approach in doing things. Ill give it go and post more updates in due course. Yourself and fellow members have all been very helpful and its much appreciated.
 
AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75 totally agree with this.


I do have another spreadsheet with the formulas to covert distances beaten into times so I will have a look at that approach but I think the spreadsheet you attached this way maybe better suited for me going forward, it maybe worth while using this for all race distances anyway? Regardless if I already have enough data for some distances or not, I'll at least have a consistent approach in doing things. Ill give it go and post more updates in due course. Yourself and fellow members have all been very helpful and its much appreciated.
It would do for all race distances so long as your observed distances aren't all getting mixed up. I tried it at first but ended up being happy with observed times of all horses.

Horses for courses.
 

db1

Yearling
Update: So, not too much to update with. Had done a fair bit of trial and error trying to get a method I'm happy with and stick to. Anyway, Chelmsfords standard are below hopefully can crack on with the other AW courses shortly too. Right or wrong I'm happy with what I have here.

Screenshot_20210524-204834_Office.jpg
 

db1

Yearling
I do not know what method you used to align the data points, it the first time I have seen the quadratic line overlap the regression curve perfectly, good effort.
TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother maybe abit of beginners luck? I've re-read and then re-read again most of the standard times and speed figure threads in here to try and grasp ideas and logics I could use and get more of an understanding. AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75 kindly included a spreadsheet earlier on which I have been using and has been extremely helpful. I'm using the fastest times I have avaliable and going from there really, I want to see how my other standards turn out, hopefully I'm on the right tracks. I've managed Kempton Standards below;

Screenshot_20210525-124327_Office.jpg
 
It can become very addictive going into the realms of obsession which I suffer from.

The advantages are you pick up on performances that go off the scale, like the performance of 4yo filly Lethal Blast (4:55 Lingfield) yesterday who I had shattering her handicap mark by 22lbs she ran so fast in the final furlongs Kerian O'Neill had to sit up in the saddle to slow her down, her final sectionals must have been on par with Bataash.

Mike.
Lethal Blast runs tonight I see in the 8:35. 11/8 widely available and seems to be widely expected to hack up.
 
D db1 I currently have these times for Chelmsford. Though they are different there isn't much difference in terms of seconds per furlong across each of the distances as you can see in the right hand column.

1621981389149.png

This is the current worksheet's analysis of 2020's top performances at this track. Adj1 is the going allowance, Adj2 now places a minus if there is a suggestion the horse may not be quite as good as the speed rating, Adj3 if containing a positive figure suggests that horse may be better than that rating. If you see a 0 in both columns it has run a sound race and a believable speed figure in my opinion. WFA is the weight allowance, JA the jockey allowance.

1621981575059.png

Best performances by distance.

1621982121919.png

When I'm next playing with other tracks I'll share times and thoughts on those.
 
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db1

Yearling
AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75 thanks for sharing your times for Chelmsford, it seems the difference in seconds per furlong, with the except of 5f, between mine and yours remains fairly consistent at each distance. I would see that as a positive. I've not consider rating anything yet until I've got all my standard times but I'll be interested to see how they would compare. I guess for me I'll be happy in getting performances ranked in a similar order, the ratings themselves would of course be different as we are all working off different times etc. Just completed Newcastle so here are my times
Screenshot_20210526-102544_Office.jpg
 

db1

Yearling
Think I'm going number blind. Just finished up Wolves Standards. That's me done for the day I think, only Dundalk left to do now.

Wolves standards.

Screenshot_20210526-163905_Office.jpg
 
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