• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Daily Racing Insight

GIBSIDE 8.23 CATTERICK

Gibside has been on a handicapping mission since winning here off 77 in October. That put his mark into the 80s where he has never placed in nine races.
Gibside's record off marks of 79 or less in races with an AOR of 80 or less reads 8-31, his career record is 8-44, he's won three of his last four in those circumstances. However, that record improves when he didn't have a top three finish in his last race to 6-16 with his last five races reading 12161. The sixth was at York in a 16 runner race where he was 22/1. As he is 0-10 with just one place in fields of 12 or more runners and 0-17 with one place when bigger than 12/1, that run can be forgiven.
Dave Allan takes over in the saddle, 3-8 under the criteria and 3-4 in races with 8 or less runners.

This looks a good opportunity for Gibside who has won two races per season since he was a 3yo.
 
The 4.10 york is rather typical type of handicap for the track, you can come at it in many different ways but from a "form" point of view RATHGAR strikes me has being the horse to beat.

It's easy enough to see that the horse he beat SALLAAL came out and boosted the form by winning 6L lto, many aspects of that performance needs nuance, SALLAAL got a poor ride when beaten be RATHGAR and there's a need to be wary of any form coming out of epsom last weekend with that ground.
ASMEN WARRIOR was 3rd and his form ties in with ANTIPODES and on balance favours RATHGAR imo.

The earlier win for RATHGAR saw him beat VALEDICTORY a hd and although that horse disappointed a little nto has won since with a better ride, again you could argue the form was boosted.

Today RATHGAR has to carry another 5lbs up to 94, much as we might expect and certainly makes life more difficult and needs to be taken into consideration but i feel it's always worth giving the winner going up the rating the benefit of the doubt, by that i mean if that 5lbs extra is too much of a burden we need to ask what difference might it make ? Roughly speaking i'd suggest it comes out at around 2L o his last performance which at the very least makes him an each way possible unless you can point to one or two other runners in this race being well in or having something hidden in their form.

Both ALTAREQ & ANTIPODES need careful consideration, either could be better that their marks and the form interest in this race doesn't end there but regardless of the fact that RATHGAR keeps drifting i'll be backing him ew with extra places a further possible.
 
STEWARDS CUP 3.35 GOODWOOD

Since 2013, all bar three of the Stewwards Cups have been won by a horse drawn in the highest half of the draw.
The three that were drawn in the lower half were all 3yos and all went on to run in Group 1s, in other words a Group horse in a handicap.

Since 2013, all 13 winners had finished first or second in at least one of their last three races.

Since 2013, all 13 winners had runner at Goodwood 0-1 times.

Combining the trends has found 74 selections for the ten winners and achieved a profit of 119.5 points by backing all blindly.

This year, Sondad, Tuco Salamanca, Mitbaahy, Realign, West Acre and Garfield Shadow are the selections from the trends.
 
With talk of a more collaborative approach, mlmrob mlmrob reminds us of this thread.

28 runners certainly suggests you need to choose a side and having watched a good few replays i'm happy to go along with the high numbers today, i can well remember channell 4 racing debating the "draw" here and elswhere and very often it was argued that the "pace" is the determining factor, personally i feel it's a bit of both but very often horses might have been better staying at home, not so today.

Having chosen the high numbers my eye was drawn to previous winner GET IT, worth watching his performance, flew out of the traps, got on to the rails and was never really in trouble.
He hasn't run for 314 days so might not be spot on which leads me to look for another one drawn high and my pin has fallen on MITBAAHY with reliable old jamie spencer on board, all has not been well with this horse since he moved from Varian's to C Hills, had a couple of wind ops and plenty of gaps in his racing but i thought he made a very promising performance in the Workingham finishing 5th btn just over 2L.
Turned out again 2 weeks ago newb 6f he was held up and stayed on well enough behind SYMBOL OF HONOUR in a G3, that strikes me has being a possible step forward, he travelled well enough but lacked the pace when asked to catch the winner.
So the tactics today appear straightforward, hold him up and let GET IN do his thing along with RUN BOY RUN before getting a clear run through and picking them up late at around 16/1.

ps.. He's in rob's shortlist.....edit 28.0 btf
 
Last edited:
WARNING SIGN 5.00 SANDOWN

Warning Sign bids to retain his crown off a 9lbs higher mark than last year. His recent win off 75 when beating 85 rated Talis Evolvere 3.25ls getting just 5lbs suggests he is up to this mark.
Gary Moore's record in amateur races at Sandown makes interesting reading. Since 2023 his record reads 2213151 which improves with Dave Dunsdon riding to 2211, 211 on his own horse, Warning Sign.
Warning Sign is a better horse in blinkers with his record reading 11231.

Looks a target.
 
​
​
​
​
0​
​
0​
1700 San​
Warning Sign​
85​
85​
3​
57.6666666666667​
74​
131.666666666667​
​
Epictetus​
114​
84​
3​
67​
65​
132​
​
Arcadian Nights​
87​
80​
3​
56.6666666666667​
77​
133.666666666667​
​
Imperious​
81​
75​
3​
53​
57​
110​
​
Beach Point​
81​
72​
3​
52​
54​
106​
​
Drumstick​
76​
76​
1​
51​
63​
114​
​
Whats the Plan​
79​
79​
2​
53.3333333333333​
69​
122.333333333333​
​
 
Hi @mimrob this is my take on the race i have 3 in the win zone those being.
Epictetus ( massive historic RPR maybe inflates his score) 132 and 67 ability)
Arcadian Nights ( has the top adj RPR and the top URM but been off 152 days may need the run)
Warning Sign ( 2nd adj RPR and Ability )
and then you have the 3 yr olds .
Good luck tomorrow its a no bet for me
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top