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Daily Racing Insight

doomster said:
I just noticed High On Hope ( finished a place behind LB) runs in the consolation race T tacker .

Looks exposed and I only noticed as I decided to have an interest on the stablemate. High draws for both a worry, so I've also covered on Mezcala, if single numbers have the edge, even though it's drifting badly.
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To be honest i don't think the form of that race is of much use, i'm relying on the ride far more.
Again i have it on my mind that high draw is good.
 
doomster said:
Draw numbers : 3,2

Fair to say everyone will be all over the stat next year
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I don't see anything that's supports any significant draw bias, not least because they came up the middle of the track, in my opinion the best horses on the day were drawn low made no attempt to take any possible advantage if there was any by staying over that side
Both LA BOTTE & ETERNAL FORCE raced towards the far side so maybe they felt low numbers or the far side might be best but neither were good enough yesterday, TRIBAL CHIEF (21) ran 3rd but worked his way left late on and was a bit of an eye catcher with 12.54 FF.
 
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Donny 5.15 Dark Thirty @ 13.0

Won this last year off 4lb lower, but also won the previous year off 3lb higher than today.

Both win were big field h/caps off a winter break.

Changed stables but fair to assume Quinn will recognize the horse goes well fresh.

All his poor g/s runs can be excused and although he generally runs prominently in race full of early pace, the horse does have 7f wins off 89 & 90.

Quinn's record with debut stable changers looks pretty average, but improves with them in March and won a couple of high grade/ big field h/caps at this meeting in the past.
 
ULSTER NATIONAL 4.27 DOWNPATRICK

For the last 14 years there has been significant trends for this race.

12-14 WINNERS CARRIED 11-0 OR LESS
13-14 WINNERS WENT OFF AT SINGLE FIGURE ODDS

Combining the trends has found 52 selections over 13 renewals and 11 winning. A profit of 34.75 poiunts has been achieved.

Rexem, Slanagaibhgoleir and St Deniss Well currently qualify.
 
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The best jockey was on the winner

Stalls 1-6 with OR's over 62 through up 5 runners which got the tricast . the 50/1 shot was backed late on , I guess on the draw angle
 
There was some evidence earlier today to suggest low numbers had the advantage but over the two days on the straight course jockey's appeared to correctly choose the centre of the track and only today did we properly see them split into two groups.
Perhaps if we can learn anything from our chat regarding the draw bias is that the bias might be very different 8f down the track to 5f and i point to the last race over 5f, where high numbers dominated despite drifting left late on, or at least that's what i saw.

 
tacker said:
There was some evidence earlier today to suggest low numbers had the advantage but over the two days on the straight course jockey's appeared to correctly choose the centre of the track and only today did we properly see them split into two groups.
Perhaps if we can learn anything from our chat regarding the draw bias is that the bias might be very different 8f down the track to 5f and i point to the last race over 5f, where high numbers dominated despite drifting left late on, or at least that's what i saw.

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I’m beginning to think that the Draw can play a part, but Pace prediction plays a more important part.

posted Pre Race last night

This is a phenomenal dataset to finalize our analysis of this highly competitive 6f sprint. By layering the Timeform IPS, Pace Forecast, and RaceIQ metrics over our OR-based Bowers short-list, the true shape of the race becomes glaringly obvious.

Let’s map the front end and build the final matrix.

Mapping the Front End: The Pace Furnace​

The Timeform Pace Forecast is explicitly listed as Very Strong, and the Pace Map probabilities confirm exactly why.

The front end is going to be an absolute furnace. Dark Thirty (54.4% Col 1), Physique (32.7% Col 1, 61.8% Col 2), and Territorial Knight (57.6% Col 2) are all going to lock horns early.

The specific pace hint gives us the exact tactical blueprint for this scenario: “Hold-up horses normally aren’t favoured at this trip here but the expected pace will probably mean PHYSIQUE (IRE) will be vulnerable while the prospects of WOVEN look better.”

Because the pace is going to collapse, we must severely downgrade the prominent runners (Col 1/2) and upgrade the off-pace stalkers (Col 4/5) who can bypass the middle draw bias.

The Retained Runners Summary Chart​

Here is your permanently locked-in tactical matrix for the 10 retained contenders. It features the OR-based Bowers Rating, PR%, CCR, Timeform metrics, and the integrated Pace Map / RaceIQ data.

HorseBowers RtgPR% (Last 3)CCR (Last 3: Most Recent)TFRTfigPace Map Profile & RaceIQ/IPS Comments (Most Recent First)
Fine Interview6.060%, 100%, 100%91.0, 91.0, 88.088, 106, 9886, 97, 90Mid-Division (Col 3) / IPS: 3k, 4, 5
RaceIQ: High top speed (41.36mph).
1. Mid-field, travelled well... one paced.
2. Held up, headway over 2f out, led inside final 1f.
3. Patiently ridden, good headway... challenged close home.
Korker7.540%, 90%, 85%85.0, 96.0, 95.075, 107, 10275, 98, 91Backmarker (Col 5) / IPS: 4s, 5s, 4s
RaceIQ: Elite Finishing Speed (103.59%).
1. Slowly into stride, held up... made no impression.
2. Dwelt, in rear... went 2nd well inside final furlong, stayed on.
3. Slowly away, off the pace in rear... kept on.
Dark Thirty13.050%, 70%, 10%92.0, 92.0, 93.081, 88, 8383, 80, 64Leader (Col 1) / IPS: 2, 1, 2
RaceIQ: Vulnerable to pace pressure.
1. Chased leaders far side... faded inside final furlong.
2. Led group, driven 2f out, no extra.
3. Chased leaders... weakening when hampered.
Territorial Knight15.080%, 90%, 100%85.0, 85.0, 82.088, 96, 9089, 92, 91Prominent (Col 2) / IPS: 2, 2k, 3r
RaceIQ: Sustained high cruising speed.
1. Chased leaders far side... held inside final furlong.
2. Chased leaders, going well 2f out, ridden to lead... just held.
3. Mid-division... strong inside final furlong to lead.
Akkadian Thunder15.525%, 50%, 45%91.0, 93.0, 95.065, 95, 9565, 88, 91Off Pace/Mid (Col 4/3) / IPS: 3, 3kf, 4
RaceIQ: Decelerates late.
1. Mid division, pushed along over 2f out, soon no extra.
2. Held up in mid-division... hung left, found little.
3. Held up towards rear... never on terms.
Sixtygeesbaby16.590%, 10%, 60%85.0, 86.0, 86.096, 77, 9495, 66, 69Prominent/Mid (Col 2/3) / IPS: 2r, 3s, 2
RaceIQ: Gritty late pace (41.63mph).
1. Prominent, ridden and hung left 2f out, led briefly... just held.
2. Midfield... faded inside final furlong.
3. Prominent, pushed along 2f out, stayed on.
Baldomero17.050%, 20%, 100%92.0, 92.0, 90.082, 93, 10059, 77, 93Mid-Division (Col 3) / IPS: 5, 3, 5r
RaceIQ: Strong late burst (43.77mph peak).
1. In rear... kept on final 1f, not knocked about.
2. Midfield, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace.
3. Stumbled start and held up in last... led towards finish.
Physique20.020%, 30%, 90%85.0, 86.0, 85.054, 74, 8956, -, 78Prominent (Col 2/1) / IPS: 2, 2, 1k
RaceIQ: Vulnerable to hot pace (Specific Hint).
1. Led, ridden and headed over 2f out... weakened.
2. Wide early, went prominent... lost place over 1f out.
3. Led... headed under 2f out, led again... headed final 50 yds.
Woven22.045%, 75%, 100%87.0, 87.0, 84.067, 80, 9767, 82, 94Off Pace (Col 4) / IPS: 4sl, 4s, 3s
RaceIQ: Consistent closing sectionals.
1. Reared leaving stalls, raced off the pace... made no impression.
2. Mid-division, pushed along and switched left... never threatened.
3. Held up towards rear of mid-division... led close home.
Lord Bertie23.030%, 100%, 75%88.0, 83.0, 82.062, 97, 9062, 99, 88Backmarker (Col 5) / IPS: 5s, 4K, 4§
RaceIQ: Elite late acceleration.
1. Always towards rear, never a factor.
2. Held up towards rear... closed going well... quickened to lead.
3. Held up towards rear... led inside final furlong, headed towards finish.
Export to Sheets

The Final Tactical Verdict​

This is a textbook setup for a pace collapse. The front-runners (Dark Thirty, Physique, Territorial Knight) are going to cut each other's throats, setting the race up perfectly for the deep closers.

Korker (9/1) is an outstanding value play here. He is mathematically elite (7.5 Bowers Rating), maps perfectly as a Col 5 Backmarker, and boasts an absurd 103.59% Finishing Speed on RaceIQ. He wants them to go fast early so he can pick up the pieces, and he is drawn high (16), keeping him away from the negative Mid-Draw bias.

Woven (12/1) was explicitly flagged by the Pace Hint as a prime beneficiary of this setup. He maps ideally in Col 4 (Off Pace), and his Price Hint notes he was heavily backed last time out. His peak 97 TFR shows he has the class to swoop late.

Fine Interview (4/1) topped our Bowers Rating at 6.0 and has the tactical versatility to sit in Col 3, avoiding the early burn while staying ahead of the deep traffic. He has consecutive 100% PR% runs and a massive 106 TFR peak.
 
Kempton 4.10 Our Dagger

Wolver 8.30 Moortown Lad

Trainer is in fair form and already had three winners this year from stable changers across the water.

Runs a couple tonight and Moortown lad was double figures last night.

Not sure if its genuine support , but the fact that Grace McEntee isn't on it, looks a positive. She is at the track and rode it the last 4 times.

Our Dagger is in stable debut but has been at the stable a while.

Without checking, I think the stable have landed back to back winner on 4 occasions.
 
doomster said:
Kempton 4.10 Our Dagger

Wolver 8.30 Moortown Lad

Trainer is in fair form and already had three winners this year from stable changers across the water.

Runs a couple tonight and Moortown lad was double figures last night.

Not sure if its genuine support , but the fact that Grace McEntee isn't on it, looks a positive. She is at the track and rode it the last 4 times.

Our Dagger is in stable debut but has been at the stable a while.

Without checking, I think the stable have landed back to back winner on 4 occasions.
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CAHIERS DEN 3.30 NEWCASTLE

Cahiers Den could be thrown in off 100 in this 0-100. He has had a couple of sighters in better races than this. He was a 5ls fourth to 116 rated My Noble Lord on his chasing debut and a 10ls third to I Wish You and Diamond Dealer rated 113 and 117 respectively. Diamond Dealer has subsequently won off 3lbs higher.

It is Cahier Den's point form that indicates that 100 is lenient. He won a maiden ptp at Ballindenisk over three miles beating Gillane 2ls. Gillane is currently with Gavin Cromwell without a rating. In third, 4.5ls back, that day was Pookie Holler, rated 110 wiith Henry De Bromhead, fourth was Golan Loop, beaten 5ls, now with Warren Greatrex rated 120.
The win was on good ground and three miles is his bag.

Donald McCain has a 18% strike rate in novice handicap chases and this seaon he is 6-28, 21%. In the lasat five seasons McCain has recorded a 48% strike rate with his novice handicap chasers that go off favourite, 28-58.
 
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