Daily Racing Insight

[mlmrob]

GIBSIDE 8.23 CATTERICK

Gibside has been on a handicapping mission since winning here off 77 in October. That put his mark into the 80s where he has never placed in nine races.
Gibside's record off marks of 79 or less in races with an AOR of 80 or less reads 8-31, his career record is 8-44, he's won three of his last four in those circumstances. However, that record improves when he didn't have a top three finish in his last race to 6-16 with his last five races reading 12161. The sixth was at York in a 16 runner race where he was 22/1. As he is 0-10 with just one place in fields of 12 or more runners and 0-17 with one place when bigger than 12/1, that run can be forgiven.
Dave Allan takes over in the saddle, 3-8 under the criteria and 3-4 in races with 8 or less runners.

This looks a good opportunity for Gibside who has won two races per season since he was a 3yo.

 

[tacker]

The 4.10 york is rather typical type of handicap for the track, you can come at it in many different ways but from a "form" point of view RATHGAR strikes me has being the horse to beat.

It's easy enough to see that the horse he beat SALLAAL came out and boosted the form by winning 6L lto, many aspects of that performance needs nuance, SALLAAL got a poor ride when beaten be RATHGAR and there's a need to be wary of any form coming out of epsom last weekend with that ground.
ASMEN WARRIOR was 3rd and his form ties in with ANTIPODES and on balance favours RATHGAR imo.

The earlier win for RATHGAR saw him beat VALEDICTORY a hd and although that horse disappointed a little nto has won since with a better ride, again you could argue the form was boosted.

Today RATHGAR has to carry another 5lbs up to 94, much as we might expect and certainly makes life more difficult and needs to be taken into consideration but i feel it's always worth giving the winner going up the rating the benefit of the doubt, by that i mean if that 5lbs extra is too much of a burden we need to ask what difference might it make ? Roughly speaking i'd suggest it comes out at around 2L o his last performance which at the very least makes him an each way possible unless you can point to one or two other runners in this race being well in or having something hidden in their form.

Both ALTAREQ & ANTIPODES need careful consideration, either could be better that their marks and the form interest in this race doesn't end there but regardless of the fact that RATHGAR keeps drifting i'll be backing him ew with extra places a further possible.