Daily Racing Insight
- Thread starter mlmrob
- Start date
Paul Brown
Colt
Busy day for some of you today. Appleby/Loughnane 5.15 have and exceptional record at course. Not for me as I'm in research mode but worth a look if breeding backs up stat.
doomster
Dam
Bath 3.45 Level Up @ 10.0
The Feminine Urge @ 25.0
80/20 Split
Concerned about the jockey booking, but I've got negatives about ost of these runners.
The last run was a modest C4, but drops back into C6 level on turf for the first time since 2nd July '25, when he finished 2nd off a mark of 69, having won his previous race in a C5 off 64.
Runs here off a reduced turf mark of 60.
The 7yo has only ever run in three C6 turf h/caps under the current trainer: 1st (OR60), 2nd (OR69).
The cover bet got my attaention purely on the Jock booking. They have a good record together, picked up a race last week at Donny and I would have thought the agent could have found a better ride.
The trainer has a shorter price runner in the race and Ryan is also booked for the trainer in another race, but it's first time with the trainer and worth a punt at the price.
The Feminine Urge @ 25.0
80/20 Split
Concerned about the jockey booking, but I've got negatives about ost of these runners.
The last run was a modest C4, but drops back into C6 level on turf for the first time since 2nd July '25, when he finished 2nd off a mark of 69, having won his previous race in a C5 off 64.
Runs here off a reduced turf mark of 60.
The 7yo has only ever run in three C6 turf h/caps under the current trainer: 1st (OR60), 2nd (OR69).
The cover bet got my attaention purely on the Jock booking. They have a good record together, picked up a race last week at Donny and I would have thought the agent could have found a better ride.
The trainer has a shorter price runner in the race and Ryan is also booked for the trainer in another race, but it's first time with the trainer and worth a punt at the price.
This 4.45 newm a cl2 hdc with the top of the market involving GREAT CHIEFTAIN and MISTER WINSTON, if we go back to last october cambridgeshire they me with GC rated 93 and MW rated 94, now they run off GC 89 and MW 92 why ?
It must be down to GC having a couple of runs in meydan where he did little wrong to be honest and should be fit enough to do himself justice, MC yet to run since last october where he was a few lengths behind GC and now 2lbs worse off according to my dodgy maths.
Time for grok....
It must be down to GC having a couple of runs in meydan where he did little wrong to be honest and should be fit enough to do himself justice, MC yet to run since last october where he was a few lengths behind GC and now 2lbs worse off according to my dodgy maths.
Time for grok....
pete
Sire
Esheran quickened away nicely in his last time out win against much easier competition last time, not convinced newmarket will suit, but if he is close coming to the final 2f and if the jockey can hold off pressing the "Go" button until a little later than normal, might be worth a poke at a big price. (currently 16/1) Back off a break and timeform shows trainer is not in the best of form, but if the horse improved some and is ready to go today .... the price will be generous.
Last edited:
Hugh Taylor gives that a mention but i struggle with irish form at best so who knows, not an easy race to read
pete.
mlmrob
Sire
PONTEFRACT 3.27
4yo+ Handicaps at Pontefract over 10f.
Since 2018 there have been 23 races with above criteria, 21 with seven runners or more.
Horses housed in stalls 1-5 have won 19 of the 21 races with the outliers in 8 and 9 runner races.
It means that Insanity, Antrim, Savvy Victory, Flying Frontier, Parlando and Sunriseontheboyne have extra work to do to be competitive.
Marahaba Ghaiyyath, Have Secret, Romieu, Military Air and Fireblade have an advantage.
14-21 WINNERS CAME FROM THE TOP 5 ON OFFICIAL RATINGS
That leaves Marhaba Ghaiyyath and Military Air.
Marhaba Ghaiyyath's second to Best Secret off 100 looks sound with that horse going on to win a listed race at St Cloud. Best Secret beat Gethin a head in that who himself has won at Listed level. Behind Marhaba Ghaiyyath at Goodwood was Fort George who has since won a 0-95 and a Group 3 in Meydan.
That race is the key form and there were excuses for his last two races of the season.
Marhaba Ghaiyyath was a bit keen in his seasonal debut race, a 0-105, the Roseberry. He drops back into a 0-100 here and is the class act in the race considering only two of his rivals are racing in their correct grade and theyre not drawn well.
Military Air's third beaten 2.5ls to Surabad in a listed contest at Longchamp is very good form.He's been gelded and wears a first time hood.
David O Meara's record in handicaps at Pontefract with horses drawn in stall one from 2018 reads 7-15, 10-34 overall. 3-5 in Class 2 and 3.
Timeform have Marhaba Ghaiyyath 9lbs clear of Military Air and that swings it.
4yo+ Handicaps at Pontefract over 10f.
Since 2018 there have been 23 races with above criteria, 21 with seven runners or more.
Horses housed in stalls 1-5 have won 19 of the 21 races with the outliers in 8 and 9 runner races.
It means that Insanity, Antrim, Savvy Victory, Flying Frontier, Parlando and Sunriseontheboyne have extra work to do to be competitive.
Marahaba Ghaiyyath, Have Secret, Romieu, Military Air and Fireblade have an advantage.
14-21 WINNERS CAME FROM THE TOP 5 ON OFFICIAL RATINGS
That leaves Marhaba Ghaiyyath and Military Air.
Marhaba Ghaiyyath's second to Best Secret off 100 looks sound with that horse going on to win a listed race at St Cloud. Best Secret beat Gethin a head in that who himself has won at Listed level. Behind Marhaba Ghaiyyath at Goodwood was Fort George who has since won a 0-95 and a Group 3 in Meydan.
That race is the key form and there were excuses for his last two races of the season.
Marhaba Ghaiyyath was a bit keen in his seasonal debut race, a 0-105, the Roseberry. He drops back into a 0-100 here and is the class act in the race considering only two of his rivals are racing in their correct grade and theyre not drawn well.
Military Air's third beaten 2.5ls to Surabad in a listed contest at Longchamp is very good form.He's been gelded and wears a first time hood.
David O Meara's record in handicaps at Pontefract with horses drawn in stall one from 2018 reads 7-15, 10-34 overall. 3-5 in Class 2 and 3.
Timeform have Marhaba Ghaiyyath 9lbs clear of Military Air and that swings it.
TheBluesBrother
Dam
Charlie Johnston stable tour:
Marhaba Ghaiyyath
4g Ghaiyyath - Zam Zoom
Jaber Abdullah
12280-6
RPR 106 OR 100
He put up some big performances last year but I probably shouldn't have run him in the Cambridgeshire because the gelding operation had knocked him for six before that. I thought he ran a lot better than the finishing position suggested in the Rosebery Handicap last month and I'd expect him to step up with that run under his belt at Pontefract on Tuesday. He'll hopefully run in all the ten-furlong handicaps at the summer festivals, and might step up into Listed races when the opportunity presents itself.
Marhaba Ghaiyyath
4g Ghaiyyath - Zam Zoom
Jaber Abdullah
12280-6
RPR 106 OR 100
He put up some big performances last year but I probably shouldn't have run him in the Cambridgeshire because the gelding operation had knocked him for six before that. I thought he ran a lot better than the finishing position suggested in the Rosebery Handicap last month and I'd expect him to step up with that run under his belt at Pontefract on Tuesday. He'll hopefully run in all the ten-furlong handicaps at the summer festivals, and might step up into Listed races when the opportunity presents itself.
mlmrob
Sire
ABASHIRI 3.35 NEWMARKET
Godolphin probably know what they have with this filly. She has a Frankel, Dubawi cross, that has a 5-24 record in Group 1s. The cross is the same as Adayar who won the Derby for them. Others with the same cross, Homeless Songs who won the Irish 1000 Guineas and Mostadhaf who won the Prince Of Wales, beating Adayar 4.5ls and Mostadhaf also won the Juddmonte. It is pure Group 1 breeding.
Abashiri may well be an Oaks filly as her dam Sobetsu was third in the Nassau and stayed the 10f well. She has already foaled the full sister to Abashiri, English Rose who is 2-2 in the UK and won the Balanchine at Meydan and was second in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland. The grand dam had black type.
Argubly, she is the best bred filly in the race and is shorter for the Oaks than she is here. But, at her price today she offers plenty of place value as well. She will be a lot shorter after today for the Oaks.
Godolphin probably know what they have with this filly. She has a Frankel, Dubawi cross, that has a 5-24 record in Group 1s. The cross is the same as Adayar who won the Derby for them. Others with the same cross, Homeless Songs who won the Irish 1000 Guineas and Mostadhaf who won the Prince Of Wales, beating Adayar 4.5ls and Mostadhaf also won the Juddmonte. It is pure Group 1 breeding.
Abashiri may well be an Oaks filly as her dam Sobetsu was third in the Nassau and stayed the 10f well. She has already foaled the full sister to Abashiri, English Rose who is 2-2 in the UK and won the Balanchine at Meydan and was second in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland. The grand dam had black type.
Argubly, she is the best bred filly in the race and is shorter for the Oaks than she is here. But, at her price today she offers plenty of place value as well. She will be a lot shorter after today for the Oaks.
Nothing more informative than watching replays and especially those from the goldie yard running here in a cl4 hdc, today drops into a cl6 with Mulrennan on board.
3.30 TAP DANCER might be worth keeping an eye on.
3.30 TAP DANCER might be worth keeping an eye on.
Last edited:
mlmrob
Sire
Kevin Ryan has an awful record in handicaps at this meeting, 4-167, but two of those winners have come in the Churchill Tyres Handicap. In fact, his record since 2019 in this race reads quite well, 4, 16, 14,5,12, 7,20,10, 3,1,17, 1,9,5.
With wins in 2023 and 2024 and Bergerac finishing fifth last year, he looks like he targets this sprint.
This year he is reprosented by Russet Gold, American Style and We Never Stop.
We Never Stop was 9th in this last year off 89 at 15/2 and is off 91 today. The fact he is 0-9, never placed, in races with 16+ runners is a worry.
Russet Gold has his second start for Ryan after running really well at Leicester last time. He finished with running left after getting hampered at a vital stage behind Strike Red, 7lbs better off, and the 6yo is 15lbs lower than what he was a year ago.
He hasn't won since he was a 3yo and he is yet to place in 7 races with 16+ runners but his chance is transparent.
American Style is the one I like out of the trio. The 4yo had a very successful season last year and he has returned in top form when third to Kodiac Thriller in a 0-85 at Ripon. He recorded a Timeform speed figure of 115, running a career best Timeform form figure as well. He is up in class today and is drawn on the A64. However, he is likely to lead and Rowan Scott may well dictate where this field goes.
The booking of Oisin Murphy for Fast Track Harry takes theye considering he has only ridden three times for Clive Cox since 2021, one win. He is 10-76 overall for the handler, so I wonder if Jeff Smith, owner, has booked him.
Fast Track Harry was second over this course and distance in the 3yo handicap at the June meeting last year, where American Style was 2ls behind him. He is 10lbs worse off with American Style, but he looks a danger.
With wins in 2023 and 2024 and Bergerac finishing fifth last year, he looks like he targets this sprint.
This year he is reprosented by Russet Gold, American Style and We Never Stop.
We Never Stop was 9th in this last year off 89 at 15/2 and is off 91 today. The fact he is 0-9, never placed, in races with 16+ runners is a worry.
Russet Gold has his second start for Ryan after running really well at Leicester last time. He finished with running left after getting hampered at a vital stage behind Strike Red, 7lbs better off, and the 6yo is 15lbs lower than what he was a year ago.
He hasn't won since he was a 3yo and he is yet to place in 7 races with 16+ runners but his chance is transparent.
American Style is the one I like out of the trio. The 4yo had a very successful season last year and he has returned in top form when third to Kodiac Thriller in a 0-85 at Ripon. He recorded a Timeform speed figure of 115, running a career best Timeform form figure as well. He is up in class today and is drawn on the A64. However, he is likely to lead and Rowan Scott may well dictate where this field goes.
The booking of Oisin Murphy for Fast Track Harry takes theye considering he has only ridden three times for Clive Cox since 2021, one win. He is 10-76 overall for the handler, so I wonder if Jeff Smith, owner, has booked him.
Fast Track Harry was second over this course and distance in the 3yo handicap at the June meeting last year, where American Style was 2ls behind him. He is 10lbs worse off with American Style, but he looks a danger.
3.50 notts...CAPICHERA
No odds yet so i might be wasting my time here but this filly might be a few pounds better than her mark of 80.
She didn't make her debut until nov last year and showed just a small amount of ability before going again in dec 8f chelms where she stayed on to catch the two in front of her but was caught herself by a gosden horse that now has a coronation stakes entry after winning again the other day,others out of that race have perhaps boosted the bit of form we can see.
So on her seasonal 3yr old debut she again encounted a gosden filly in SO REGAL at the craven meeting and ran a respectable race in 3rd btn 1.5L, winner and 2nd met again and i believe gave the form a boost, 5th horse has won a small race at bath since but hardly much of a boost.
My best guess is that CAPICHERA is about 5 or 6lbs better than her mark of 80 but might just want further in time but she might be an ew bet if bet365 ever get their arse in gear.
No odds yet so i might be wasting my time here but this filly might be a few pounds better than her mark of 80.
She didn't make her debut until nov last year and showed just a small amount of ability before going again in dec 8f chelms where she stayed on to catch the two in front of her but was caught herself by a gosden horse that now has a coronation stakes entry after winning again the other day,others out of that race have perhaps boosted the bit of form we can see.
So on her seasonal 3yr old debut she again encounted a gosden filly in SO REGAL at the craven meeting and ran a respectable race in 3rd btn 1.5L, winner and 2nd met again and i believe gave the form a boost, 5th horse has won a small race at bath since but hardly much of a boost.
My best guess is that CAPICHERA is about 5 or 6lbs better than her mark of 80 but might just want further in time but she might be an ew bet if bet365 ever get their arse in gear.
mlmrob
Sire
HURSTWOOD 4.10 RIPON
With the Sandown card tonight, I should be gelded for looking at this 0-55. But, Hurstwood runs in this for the fifth time recording figures of 0121.
Hurstwood is 4-18 at Ripon, 4-15 off marks less than 60.
His record before running in this event in past reads
2025... 2nd beaten 0.5l at Thirsk 12 days before the race Stayed on strongly. Won this race off 50.
2024....7th beaten 3ls at Catterick 23 days before the race. The interesting thing in this race was he was bumped at the start but was still running on at the finish. 2nd in this race off 56.
2023....5th beaten 1.5ls at Catterick, 17days before the race, staying on but never on terms. Won this race off 55.
2022, he was making his seasonal debut in the race and finished last.
For a horses of his ability, his profile does give glimmers.
Hurstwood's record over 6f on turf, in 0-55 off marks of 55 or less reads 5-11 with a further two places. If you leave out his seasonal debuts, that record improves to 5-9 with 2 places.
Hurstwood is 9yo now, but this looks like his target.
YAZIN 6.42 SANDOWN
Ryan Moore is 6-9 for John Gosden this season.
Yazin was entered in the Dante and holds an entry in the Group 1 St James Palace. He run in a novice race at Newmarket last season and the form of that race has seen eight horses come out and win 12 races between them. Yazin has a wonderful tail. Though the dam was unraced, the grand dam was a Group 2 winner and foaled Group 1 winner Tawkeel. The great grand dam was also a Pattern winner. The tail line is all Shadwell.
With the Sandown card tonight, I should be gelded for looking at this 0-55. But, Hurstwood runs in this for the fifth time recording figures of 0121.
Hurstwood is 4-18 at Ripon, 4-15 off marks less than 60.
His record before running in this event in past reads
2025... 2nd beaten 0.5l at Thirsk 12 days before the race Stayed on strongly. Won this race off 50.
2024....7th beaten 3ls at Catterick 23 days before the race. The interesting thing in this race was he was bumped at the start but was still running on at the finish. 2nd in this race off 56.
2023....5th beaten 1.5ls at Catterick, 17days before the race, staying on but never on terms. Won this race off 55.
2022, he was making his seasonal debut in the race and finished last.
For a horses of his ability, his profile does give glimmers.
Hurstwood's record over 6f on turf, in 0-55 off marks of 55 or less reads 5-11 with a further two places. If you leave out his seasonal debuts, that record improves to 5-9 with 2 places.
Hurstwood is 9yo now, but this looks like his target.
YAZIN 6.42 SANDOWN
Ryan Moore is 6-9 for John Gosden this season.
Yazin was entered in the Dante and holds an entry in the Group 1 St James Palace. He run in a novice race at Newmarket last season and the form of that race has seen eight horses come out and win 12 races between them. Yazin has a wonderful tail. Though the dam was unraced, the grand dam was a Group 2 winner and foaled Group 1 winner Tawkeel. The great grand dam was also a Pattern winner. The tail line is all Shadwell.
YAZIN ?
Very much agree about the newmarket form
mlmrob and a reasonable seasonable debut via southwell, i suppose there are questions to be answered yet including the WS2 ?
Difficult to get any grip of how good the stable think this horse is in my opinion but the ratings suggest there's little between a few of these.
TALK OF NEW YORK must be a big threat, won at the craven meeting in spite of some of Appleby's runners being under the weather at the time and on balance i suspect the market is about right, best of luck.
ps....pleasure to read something with reasoning.
Very much agree about the newmarket form
mlmrob and a reasonable seasonable debut via southwell, i suppose there are questions to be answered yet including the WS2 ?Difficult to get any grip of how good the stable think this horse is in my opinion but the ratings suggest there's little between a few of these.
TALK OF NEW YORK must be a big threat, won at the craven meeting in spite of some of Appleby's runners being under the weather at the time and on balance i suspect the market is about right, best of luck.
ps....pleasure to read something with reasoning.