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Daily Racing Insight

pinemarten said:
T tacker / doomster doomster,

I think LB will have to carry a penalty in the Lincoln if winning today.

Just 33K traded on Betfair to date.

The mover has been High On Hope.

To me the current market suggests its any ones race.

I remain hopeful that this has been the plan all along for CD but is the gelding good enough to beat so many unexposed types?

Regards,
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I would have thought there was enough time for ratings to be adjusted pinemarten pinemarten or have i got it wrong again ?
 
A little more context to the race as far as my selection is concerned.

Lincoln Trial Handicap

WOLVERHAMPTON 14:42 — 1m Handicap (Class 2, 0-100) — UPDATED 13:10


THE BET: REGAL ULIXES — Market 9.40 (was 7.00), Fair 5.38, Edge +7.9pp


The value has widened significantly since the morning. He's drifted from 7.00 to 9.40 — the market is pushing money away from him, making this an even stronger play. Model fair odds 5.38, current Betfair 9.40. That's a +7.9pp edge, the only horse to clear CQS qualification (CQS 117, Win% 18.6%, +3.5% ahead of 2nd).


The fundamentals haven't changed. LTO REPro 103 sits 19 points above the C/D winner par of 84. Δ REPro vs C/D Winner ▲+19, the largest in the field. LTO PRB 100%, career fPRB 77%. xBTN LTO -3.5L, xBTN Avg -1.5L — systematic outperformance, not a one-off. Same Class 2 as LTO.


The drift actually makes this better. At 7.00 this was solid value. At 9.40 it's a gift.


MAIN DANGER: KINGDOM COME — Market 9.80 (was 10.00), Fair 6.82, Edge +4.5pp


Has shortened slightly from 10.00 to 9.80 — money coming the right way. DIE top pick at 100/100. Improving trajectory +3.1pts/run (last 3 TFRs: 92→99→107), xBTN Avg -2.1L. Rising from Class 3 to Class 2 is the question, but +4.5pp edge at this price represents genuine value even with the class doubt. BSP historical win rate at this market price is 10.6% — model says 13.7%.


SECOND DANGER: FIRST PRINCIPLE — Market 9.00 (was 9.20), Fair 6.62, Edge +4.0pp


Marginal shortening. LTO REPro 86 with Δ REPro ≈+2 vs C/D Winner. fPRB 77%, xBTN LTO -1.2L, xBTN Avg +0.8L — recent form solid but career xBTN slightly negative (mild underperformer on average). Best FS% in the field at 107.1%. Model says 13.7% vs market 11.1%.


OPPOSE: SUPERPOSITION — Market 7.40 (was 6.80), Fair 9.19, Edge -1.5pp


Drifted from 6.80 to 7.40 but still overbet. Model says 10.9% (fair 9.19) against market implied 13.5%. fPRB of 44% exposes deep inconsistency. BSP historical at this price shows 15.3% but model says only 12.0% — the market is overpaying by 3.3pp at BSP benchmarks. The Best 365d REPro of 104 came at Kempton Class 4, two classes below today.


STRONG OPPOSE: THE LOST KING — Market 6.20 (was 6.80), Fair 21.86, Edge -8.4pp


Has steamed from 6.80 to 6.20 — money pouring in for the biggest model-market disagreement in the race. Model says 4.6%, market implies 16.1%. That's -8.4pp negative edge. LTO REPro of 56 is the worst in the field. Δ REPro vs C/D Winner ▼-7, the only negative in the entire grid. BSP historical at 6.20 shows 15.3% winners — but the model sees a horse who's been getting worse, not one to back at the shortest price. The TFR 117 flatters; the speed figures condemn.


OPPOSE: LA BOTTE — Market 7.60 (was 7.40), Fair 21.86, Edge -9.0pp


Marginally drifted. Model gives her 4.6% vs market implied 13.2%. Top weight at OR 104, top-rated on TFR 118. fPRB 88% shows she's competitive but the model clearly believes this Class 2 field is too deep for her at these weights.


DEAD: BRAVAIS — Market 220.00


Market agrees with the model. 220.00 says it all. fPRB 15%, xBTN Avg +11.3L. Non-runner in all but name.

Cheers
 
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The first three home were front rank from the start T tacker and La Botte probably gave them 13 lths start . I had Royal Ulixes down 10 lths.

The winner had to get the penalty to be sure of a run in the Lincoln, LB didn't.
 
I'm new to the forum, so I don't yet have automatic posting rights so this may eventually be posted after moderator approval post-racing (apologies if so :) )....

Warwick 15:10 Il Va De Soi comes with plenty of risks given his recent form looks more like alphabetti spaghetti than competitive numbers, but he's back down to a very winnable mark to the extent that on my ratings, if he can match any of his form from 2025 and stay on his feet, he could win this very cosily. He's 22/1, so I think worth a little play to find out.
 
Rebecca Menzies is 4-11 in these Go North Handicap Chase Finals ands relies on Raffles Wonder, 3.17, and William Of York, 4.27.
Rebecca won with Halycon Days in 2021, she won two in 2024 with William Of York and Tom Cody and last year she won with Raffles Wonder.

Rebecca has taken the hood off Raffles Wonder which he has worn for two years. He has to do something he hasn't done before and win off a mark above 101, but he is sure to be ready, having just three races this season.

William Of York has had a problem having raced only four times in two years but he was still going well when he unseated last time. He was given a very hard race when he won this two years ago off 118, so off 110 his chance is there to see.
 
tacker said:
I have been trawling internet for any snippets and apparantely connections want this race to " blow away cobwebs".
Around 10/1 for the lincoln but won't pick up a penalty for this if he happens to win.
I've had my bet but won't be going in again, in the main because i believe you're correct doomster doomster though until he tries wolvs we simply don't know.
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Just in case you've not seen the Harry Eustace stable tour on ATR T tacker ;

He had a long time off the track and we were just keen to get him back to the races in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton. He'll go to the Lincoln and I would hope that's the last time he runs in handicap company but we'll get Donny out the way first. He galloped on Wednesday morning but really the race has done the work for us. I think he has come forward for that run but it was just mentally as much as anything we wanted to get him to the races.
 
PHS said:
Just in case you've not seen the Harry Eustace stable tour on ATR T tacker ;

He had a long time off the track and we were just keen to get him back to the races in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton. He'll go to the Lincoln and I would hope that's the last time he runs in handicap company but we'll get Donny out the way first. He galloped on Wednesday morning but really the race has done the work for us. I think he has come forward for that run but it was just mentally as much as anything we wanted to get him to the races.
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Thanks P PHS , i hadn't seen this and the comment "the last time we see him in handicap company" sounds fairly strong to me.
 
I just noticed High On Hope ( finished a place behind LB) runs in the consolation race T tacker .

Looks exposed and I only noticed as I decided to have an interest on the stablemate. High draws for both a worry, so I've also covered on Mezcala, if single numbers have the edge, even though it's drifting badly.
 
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