Compiling Speed figures.

[Outlander]

I will be tuning in to watch RTEs coverage of the Irish Champion Hurdle today to see if the hype horse Honeysuckle can make the frame, in this company she should be outclassed, In several of her races the Top Speed figures are worse than mine.


View attachment 81440

Mike.

TheBluesBrother I just completed my speed ratings project for the jumps using the quadratic equations, they could easily end up being complete rubbish, this is the first day I've created a days ratings using them , but they have the completely opposite view on Honeysuckle and have her well clear today.

horse	Rating	FLAT.race_date	FLAT.track	RCode	Furlongs	GA	STANDARD	COMP
Honeysuckle	180.29​	01/12/2019​	Fairyhouse	Hurdle	20.00​	111​	291.45​	17.53​
Monsieur Lecoq (FR)	172.27​	21/12/2019​	Ascot	Hurdle	15.69​	118​	216.11​	16.13​
Sharjah (FR)	171.96​	18/11/2018​	Punchestown	Hurdle	16.18​	2​	231.52​	-3.80​
Petit Mouchoir (FR)	171.71​	16/11/2019​	Punchestown	Hurdle	16.50​	66​	236.67​	7.92​
Klassical Dream (FR)	170.60​	16/11/2019​	Punchestown	Hurdle	16.50​	66​	236.67​	8.10​
Klassical Dream (FR)	167.78​	30/04/2019​	Punchestown	Hurdle	16.45​	45​	235.93​	4.98​
Sharjah (FR)	163.97​	16/11/2019​	Punchestown	Hurdle	16.50​	66​	236.67​	9.20​
Supasundae	162.23​	02/12/2018​	Fairyhouse	Hurdle	20.00​	26​	291.45​	2.16​
Klassical Dream (FR)	162.17​	12/03/2019​	Cheltenham	Hurdle	16.40​	76​	229.77​	9.28​
Honeysuckle	159.85​	21/04/2019​	Fairyhouse	Hurdle	20.00​	12​	291.45​	1.83​
Honeysuckle	158.93​	26/01/2019​	Fairyhouse	Hurdle	18.00​	94​	257.86​	15.07​
Supasundae	157.39​	27/04/2018​	Punchestown	Hurdle	16.00​	92​	228.57​	12.34​
Aramon (GER)	155.62​	05/04/2019​	Aintree	Hurdle	16.66​	35​	238.85​	3.29​
Darver Star (IRE)	154.01​	21/08/2019​	Killarney	Hurdle	17.00​	65​	235.36​	12.24​
Darver Star (IRE)	153.02​	11/09/2019​	Listowel	Hurdle	20.00​	144​	290.09​	32.74​
Saglawy (FR)	151.93​	28/12/2018​	Limerick	Hurdle	16.00​	160​	219.35​	26.10​
Darver Star (IRE)	151.82​	01/12/2019​	Fairyhouse	Hurdle	16.00​	111​	223.84​	18.58​
Saglawy (FR)	150.53​	31/12/2019​	Punchestown	Hurdle	19.55​	85​	285.46​	16.43​
Darver Star (IRE)	149.69​	13/10/2019​	Limerick	Hurdle	21.00​	163​	299.01​	35.33​
Aramon (GER)	149.63​	12/03/2019​	Cheltenham	Hurdle	16.40​	76​	229.77​	11.34​
Sharjah (FR)	149.22​	02/11/2018​	Down Royal	Hurdle	16.00​	26​	222.82​	0.49​
Monsieur Lecoq (FR)	149.21​	17/11/2019​	Cheltenham	Hurdle	16.71​	97​	234.24​	15.89​
Aramon (GER)	149.07​	27/12/2018​	Leopardstown	Hurdle	16.00​	86​	221.73​	12.48​
Monsieur Lecoq (FR)	146.11​	19/10/2019​	Ffos Las	Hurdle	15.83​	90​	218.18​	12.81​

 

[doomster]

Even if she is an improver TheBluesBrother , she has to prove she copes going left handed and the drop in trip.

Do you work for Unibet Mike, as she is 40/1 for Champion in March against a general 8/1 ( 7/2 B365 NRNB !!!!!)

Is she a traveller with a turn of foot or relentless galloper.

Considering she is half the price of Sharjah for the Champion in March in the NRNB market and as it stands is not her main engagement. It makes you realize what a weak event the Tuesday highlight is looking.

If Sharjah does win today will her odds shorten ?

Your other slowboat Saldier is 6/1 for the Champion, but must have issues being withdrawn a few times.

 

[Outlander]

Even if she is an improver TheBluesBrother , she has to prove she copes going left handed and the drop in trip.

Do you work for Unibet Mike, as she is 40/1 for Champion in March against a general 8/1 ( 7/2 B365 NRNB !!!!!)

Is she a traveller with a turn of foot or relentless galloper.

Considering she is half the price of Sharjah for the Champion in March in the NRNB market and as it stands is not her main engagement. It makes you realize what a weak event the Tuesday highlight is looking.

If Sharjah does win today will her odds shorten ?

Your other slowboat Saldier is 6/1 for the Champion, but must have issues being withdrawn a few times.

Nearly had a heart attack scrambling to my pc to hammer Honeysuckle for the champion hurdle at 40/1, alas she is only 6/1

 

[Outlander]

Also note for anyone who thinks it’s all hype and she will be sunk today, you can currently lay on betfair @ 2.76 for a place in the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle in March

 

[doomster]

Nearly had a heart attack scrambling to my pc to hammer Honeysuckle for the champion hurdle at 40/1, alas she is only 6/1

Sorry O Outlander, that was the price showing on the RP site.

 

[TheBluesBrother]

Do you work for Unibet Mike, as she is 40/1 for Champion in March against a general 8/1 ( 7/2 B365 NRNB !!!!!)

No I do not work for Unibet, to win a Champion Hurdle Honeysuckle needs to be able to run to a figure of around 130+, her best recent Figure is only 93, mind you on Outlander's figures O Outlander she is a steering job

Mike.

 

[Outlander]

Sorry O Outlander, that was the price showing on the RP site.

Maybe it was one of those brand new customers only have a pound on at 40/1 promotions.

 

[TheBluesBrother]

O Outlander

Well done with your pick, I have a speed figure today for Honeysuckle of 133 going allowance of -0.27s/f (good to soft), RPR awarded the horse with a rating of 153 (OR conversion of 139).



Update:
Provisionally I had the going at Leopardstown at -0.27s/f, after assessment this was deemed too generous so I changed it to -0.19s/f.



Mike.

 

[Outlander]

O Outlander

Well done with your pick, I have a speed figure today for Honeysuckle of 133 going allowance of -0.27s/f (good to soft), RPR awarded the horse with a rating of 152 (OR conversion of 138).

View attachment 81479

Mike.

Wow that Chacun Pour Soi rating looks huge on your figures, Honeysuckle is no doubt top class mare , but today looked a bit gangly and clumsy at the last, probably better over 2 1/2 miles also, but has to be respected highly for the Champion Hurdle with the weight allowance.

 

[davejb]

To be truthful I wasn't that amazed - although TBB's speed figure (won't be rating these until noon or so tomorrow myself) shows a good run - I thought she should have won more authoritatively if she was going to be (yet another) second coming, that bunch finish wasn't fantastic and Darver Star almost nicked it.

I won't ignore the speed figure when I get round to working one out, but I'm still to be convinced! (I'm probably just jaded given the number of hype horses we seem to get these days).
Dave

 

[Outlander]

To be truthful I wasn't that amazed - although TBB's speed figure (won't be rating these until noon or so tomorrow myself) shows a good run - I thought she should have won more authoritatively if she was going to be (yet another) second coming, that bunch finish wasn't fantastic and Darver Star almost nicked it.

I won't ignore the speed figure when I get round to working one out, but I'm still to be convinced! (I'm probably just jaded given the number of hype horses we seem to get these days).
Dave

Just watched it again 3 very sloppy jumps including 2nd last and last , she did well to regain momentum after those types of gormless errors, she didn’t look a Champion Hurdler to be fair and I doubt the run was better than at Fairyhouse, the thing is I think she is a 162 horse + 7lbs mare allowance means we need a 170 horse to beat her if she runs to her best, I can’t think of horse that could run 170 in this division at the moment, it’s wide open and nothing really fills you with any confidence. The horse that should be going for this imo is Benie Des Dieux but Willie Mullins seems to have an obsession with trying to turn Champion Hurdle mares into Stayers and messing about in that Mares race, I have a rating of 165 for her and I think she would hack up in this years race if they ran her.

 

[Bertie123]

The lbs per length which I devised for each course and distance can be obtained from my standard time list (see below) along with the furlong distances to use.

I have highlighted the use of the lbs per calculation (Distance adjustment) below.

So in this example, the lbs per length calculation for 5f trip at the Curragh is 3.37, if a horse had run instead over 6f you would adjust the distance and use 2.82 lbs per length (See Standard times list).

In this example I used Dave Edwards "Top Speed" going allowance as an example, when I compile my own speed ratings I use my own going allowances

Here is an example how I rated the 2yo "Dawn Approach" over 5f trip at the Curragh on Sunday 25th March.

One thing to note is that I do not use Weight For Age in my calcuations, you can if you want.

1. The going time for the race was +6.93s above standard.
2. The going allowance was -0.9s/f per furlong (the yeiding going was slowing the horses down).
3. I use .2 secs per length.

Now for the calculation:

multiply 5 furlongs by the going allowance i.e. -0.9

5 x -0.9 = -4.50s

As the race was run +6.93s outside standard subtract the updated going allowance correction i.e -4.50s. (note that if the going allwance was +4.50s you will have to add the going correction)

+6.93-4.50 = +2.43s.

Now divide the corrected going allowance of +2.43 by .2 secs per length.

2.43 /.2 = 12.15 lengths.

multipy the lengths by the lbs. per length calculation which is 3.37 lbs per length for 5f trip at the Curragh.

12.15 x 3.37 = 40.94

now subtract the figure 40.94 from 100.

100-40.94 = 59.06 or rounded down 59.

As Dawn Approach carried 9st 5lb we now have to adjust the speed figure of 59.
For weight carried over 9st adjust the figure for the rating i.e.

59 + 5lb = 64 ( this is Dawn Approach speed figure).

So if Dawn Approach had carried 8-11 we would have had to subtract 3lb from his speed figure i.e.

59 - 3lbs = 56.

Once you have arrived at any horses speed figure you could add the Weight for age allowance, I don't because it corrupts the ratings.

Compiling speed ratings is easy

Dawn Approach ended up as my highest rated 2yo with a speed figure of 102

It seems your weight per length is the same figure Andrew Beyer has as a length per second. Standard time of the race Multiplied by 5 to get number of fifths of a second ( .20 per length)
Curragh 5f standard time = 58.6 x 5 = 293
1/293=0.0034
move decimal point by multiplying by 1000 . So .0.0034 x 1000. = 3.4 lbs or lengths per second . You can do this for all standard times but ironically the official lbs per lengths are nearly always the same 3.5 for 5 furlongs 3 for 6 furlongs etc but this method is more accurate. I have discarded this method myself and just use 5 lengths per second .20 per length as I only rate up to 8 furlongs and have found the difference is minimal. So I use the RP standard times and gong allowances and use the RPR as my ability rating. I don’t deduct or add weight to the figure but use the My Ratings page to save the rating as it is ( if it receives a rating of 87, then that is the rating I put in). I then press the calculate button to do the rest of the runners by way of weight and beaten lengths. This is logical because a horse that wins, wins at the rating that it has for the race no matter what weight it carries. If it’s a 70 rated horse then that is the rating the Official Handicapper starts from. My ratings are directly comparable to the Official Rating . Something I think most ratings are not. Anyway there it is. My method might seem illogical and flawed but I know if I have a 103 rated horse on time and ability it’s not going to be too far away from the Official rating so I can see if a horse is well in. I rarely bet in handicaps but sometime go for the high value ones. I had a bet on Roulston Scar at Meydan as I had this rapidly improving sprinter on 103. It’s official rating was 98. It won very easily and I think should win some stakes sprints this year. I look forward to reading your comments.

 

[Bertie123]

I’ll just clarify the My Ratings bit. What I mean is that if I have the winner of a race on my time and ability ratings of say 87 that is the rating it receives no matter what weight it carries. Calculations for the rest of the runners are calculated from the winners rating and weight carried and therefore the rest of the runners will be subject to weight and beaten length calculations carried out similarly by the Official Handicappers, but it is illogical to give the winner an initial rating of 87 and then add on 5 lbs if it carried 9st.5lb. Or deduct 5 lbs if it carries 8st-9lb because the RP standards are made using a 100 rated horse carrying 9stone on good ground. But this is a fallacy as it’s impossible to accurately state that if it carried another 5 lb more or less it would run appropriately slower or faster.
A horse rated 87 or any rating, can carry various weight depending on the race conditions it is running in. It’s still rated 87. The RPR is a good standard ability rating and usually higher than the OR so when my calculations are done my time figures are usually less than the RPR which brings then more or less in line with the OR, something I have always found lacking in pure time ratings. A “pure” time figure doesn’t really give you any indication of the Class but this is resolved by using the ability rating. Using seconds per mile to deduct for the various classes ( as Nick Mordin does ) doesnt allow for performance. The RPR is a private handicap rating. Even Timeform suggest it is important to have a good ability rating based on form to use in tendem with their speed formula.
Try this method by all means particularly in the better class non handicap races leaning more towards 5 and 6 furlongs. It’s simple and effective. Also if you use the Pro Card tab on the Cards page online RP and go to settings you can click the My Ratings button. Then when you load the race your ratings will show up and be automatically weight adjusted for that race, but you have to use the Pro Card tab. As non handicaps races like Conditions, Listed and Group races have very little weight differentials these are the best races to concentrate on.

 

[pinemarten]

TheBluesBrother,

Bangkok looked very good yesterday.

Look forward to seeing how you rated the race.

Regards,

 

[TheBluesBrother]

4:20 Leopardstown
APPRECIATE IT was dropping back from 2m4f on quicker ground but it seemed to suit him ideally. He travelled strongly and his rider could not have been more full of confidence as he moved up turning into the straight, and what he found when asked to go a bit quicker did not disappoint, indeed it might have exceeded expectations. This horse has plenty of gears and the good ground, for a son of Jeremy, seemed to suit ideally. He deserves his position at the head of the market for the Champion Bumper on this evidence.

QUOTES: APPRECIATE IT was very impressive. The way he put away a field of what looked the best bumper horses in Ireland did surprise me but Patrick had way more confidence in him than I had. He was keen on him all the time. I thought it was a very tough race. He looked like a Cheltenham type for me anyway - Willie Mullins, trainer

1:03 Wetherby
EMMAS JOY, dropping back to 2m, had made all when scoring over that trip earlier in the season and adopted the same tactics. Her rider gave her a breather down the back straight before kicking off the home turn, and once he did the race was soon over. She looks a decent prospect at this distance.

QUOTES: I'm a bit dubious about the race, it fell apart with the second favourite underperforming. EMMAS JOY's got experience and we've already had a go at a Grade 2, so I think we'll keep our feet on the ground - Dan Skelton, trainer.

Yesterday's top NH speed figures:


BANGKOK, running on the AW for the first time, enjoyed the strong gallop and stamped his class in the straight, running out a clear winner and setting a new course record in the process. Connections are hoping for an invitation to the Saudi Cup, otherwise he's likely to go for the Winter Derby (generally 5-2) and Easter Classic (generally 9-4) next.

QUOTES: They went a good pace which suited BANGKOK and it was a smooth race. It was nice to pick up the ride and for the horse to get his head back in front - Rob Hornby, jockey.

Yesterday's top AW speed figures:




Mike

 

[TheBluesBrother]

The RPR is a private handicap rating. Even Timeform suggest it is important to have a good ability rating based on form to use in tendem with their speed formula.

I get the impression from your posts that you think I am a newbie at compiling speed figures, with regards to RPR figures and comparing them against their official ratings, years ago I developed my own RPR to OR conversion table using SPSS from a database of 33,600 races.

With regards to Andrew Beyer, he didn't develope his method of speed figures, it was a Harvard maths graduate friend of his Sheldon Kovitz who taught him, yes I do use .02 as a length (10ft Horse) and these days I have incorporated constants into my calculations, the lbs per length figures I use are mine calculated from the standard times for each racecourse and distance.

I won't talk about Nick Mordin, to me, he is nothing more than the master of smoke and mirrors, as for Timeform, do they compile speed figures for national hunt racing, as far as I am aware the answer is no.

Mike.

Some of my work.

 

[tacker]

B Bertie123
As someone who struggles with all the numbers and terminology that's used with speed ratings and such like, my very basic approach to form reading means that if you are arguing that weight doesn't slow a horse down then logic would suggest that handicaps are meaningless, even non handicaps have many complicated weight allowances whether it be penalties, age or gender etc, either way surely carrying more weight will make a difference to it's speed to some extent.

 

[Stevet1859]

4:20 Leopardstown
APPRECIATE IT was dropping back from 2m4f on quicker ground but it seemed to suit him ideally. He travelled strongly and his rider could not have been more full of confidence as he moved up turning into the straight, and what he found when asked to go a bit quicker did not disappoint, indeed it might have exceeded expectations. This horse has plenty of gears and the good ground, for a son of Jeremy, seemed to suit ideally. He deserves his position at the head of the market for the Champion Bumper on this evidence.

QUOTES: APPRECIATE IT was very impressive. The way he put away a field of what looked the best bumper horses in Ireland did surprise me but Patrick had way more confidence in him than I had. He was keen on him all the time. I thought it was a very tough race. He looked like a Cheltenham type for me anyway - Willie Mullins, trainer

1:03 Wetherby
EMMAS JOY, dropping back to 2m, had made all when scoring over that trip earlier in the season and adopted the same tactics. Her rider gave her a breather down the back straight before kicking off the home turn, and once he did the race was soon over. She looks a decent prospect at this distance.

QUOTES: I'm a bit dubious about the race, it fell apart with the second favourite underperforming. EMMAS JOY's got experience and we've already had a go at a Grade 2, so I think we'll keep our feet on the ground - Dan Skelton, trainer.

Yesterday's top NH speed figures:
View attachment 81502

BANGKOK, running on the AW for the first time, enjoyed the strong gallop and stamped his class in the straight, running out a clear winner and setting a new course record in the process. Connections are hoping for an invitation to the Saudi Cup, otherwise he's likely to go for the Winter Derby (generally 5-2) and Easter Classic (generally 9-4) next.

QUOTES: They went a good pace which suited BANGKOK and it was a smooth race. It was nice to pick up the ride and for the horse to get his head back in front - Rob Hornby, jockey.

Yesterday's top AW speed figures:
View attachment 81503

View attachment 81504

Mike

Thank you TheBluesBrother ......so it looks like Appreciate It ran almost an identical race to Envoi Allen last year....I'm also still hoping Ask A Honey Bee goes to Cheltenham too as had a small e/w ante post.

 

[Outlander]

I’ll just clarify the My Ratings bit. What I mean is that if I have the winner of a race on my time and ability ratings of say 87 that is the rating it receives no matter what weight it carries. Calculations for the rest of the runners are calculated from the winners rating and weight carried and therefore the rest of the runners will be subject to weight and beaten length calculations carried out similarly by the Official Handicappers, but it is illogical to give the winner an initial rating of 87 and then add on 5 lbs if it carried 9st.5lb

I had this same thought when I was building my sheets, mainly because of Amateur races on the flat carrying 2stone more than usual flat races sometimes skewed the figures and made me think that weight can’t be having a linear effect you would expect and this could be a compromised solution, I changed all my sheets to incorporate this idea I quoted from your post , but the results didn’t feel right so I switched it back . Eventually I realised that giving more weighting to time over weight was a better solution, it’s still not perfect , and I still think the effect of weight is not perfectly linear probably more of a curve on a graph, but would probably need someone cleverer than me to properly account for it, the way I have my calculation sheets at the moment I would guess there might be up to 4lb error for the effect of weight over a 3 1/2 stone range on the flat, and I can accept that knowing I don’t know enough to calculate a fix. I don’t understand not accounting for weight at all but maybe it works for some that don’t because of narrow weight ranges in most flat races and the improvement of horses cancelling the effect of weight to some extent. But I feel I need to account for it fully in my ratings.

 

[TheBluesBrother]

I had this same thought when I was building my sheets, mainly because of Amateur races on the flat carrying 2stone more than usual flat races sometimes skewed the figures

All I do on the flat is work between a weight scale 8-0 to 10-0, if a horse carries 11-6 in an amateur race you treat it as carried 10-0 in your calculations.

Mike.