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    AR

Compiling Speed figures.

La Cressonnière said:
Do you have Newbury S.R 04/16/2022 ?
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Moktasaab (5.55 Newbury) produced a Group 3) performance is a class 4 handicap, I had him improve his handicap rating by +22lbs, Shadwell made a serious mistake selling this horse.

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RP notes:
2:15 Cork
RUN THE JEWELS was quite buzzy and got quite hot at the start but once he was racing he was fine. He looked an uncomplicated ride and made up his ground nicely, going through with his effort in good style. He is in prime form at the moment and the temptation must be to keep him on the go.
London Palladium is knocking on the door and did little wrong here. He had a good position and did his best to put it up to the winner but the further they went the more the winner was in command. This trip looks a good one for him.
4:29 Haydock

AN TAILLIUR had ground conditions in his favour and landed this worthwhile prize more comfortably than the margin suggests, although his trainer suggested that he'll come on for the run. The grey had been kept fresh for this since being beaten by Marie's Rock - a subsequent Grade 1 winner at the festival - at Kempton on Boxing Day. That's his only defeat in his last eight completed starts.

4:25 Lingfield
MYTHICAL MADNESS won going away despite taking the scenic route on the home turn. He has won off much higher marks in the past and benefited from the leaders going hard in front, as he ideally wants further.

5:55 Newbury
MOKTASAAB had some decent form for Owen Burrows and made a stylish winning debut for new connections, who paid 110,000gns for him and clearly considered him well treated, justifying strong support in the process. In what had looked a wide-open race, he travelled strongly throughout and faced only one possible threat after going easily to the front with over 2f to go. He will not be one to underestimate when reassessed.
Frontispiece, fourth in this race last year when last tried at 1m2f, came out of the pack to chase the winner without ever looking like getting there. He'll be suited by a return to further.
Carp Kid, a recent second at Windsor, ran his race once again but had no excuse.

2:14 Newton-Abbot
SCRUMPY BOY ran them ragged from the front in his first-time cheekpieces. Initially rated 105 in handicaps, he's been in freefall since, having managed only one place in any of his previous 19 starts. However, clearly sharpened up by the application of this headgear, and having just his sixth start over fences, he had the race wrapped up turning in and will warrant the utmost respect should connections finding him a similar opening under a penalty.

Mike.
 
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Hi TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother hope you are well, I know it's very early but I liked the performance of TOUGH TALK over in Ireland & Persian Force in the brocklesby, I'll be following runners from both races in future although I've missed the boat on a couple of them
 
Hi guys,

Nice to see the flat season getting going and some decent figures being produced!

Whats your thoughts on AW figures being transferred to turf and vice versa?

Would you back a big figure from the AW where the horse then runs on turf next time out or would you keep the two completely separate? Only taking turf ratings into consideration for turf meetings and likewise on the all weather.

Cheers,

Tom
 
tomowenevans said:
Whats your thoughts on AW figures being transferred to turf and vice versa?
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I treat them the same, the going allowances are configured the same, every racecourse and distance has its own lbs per length figures due to the different course configurations.

AW
Fast +0.50s/f
Std-Fast +0.25s/f
Stand 0.00s/f
Std-Slow -0.25s/f
Slow -0.50s/f
TURF
Firm +0.50s/f
Gd-Firm +0.25s/f
Good 0.00s/f
Gd-Soft -0.25s/f
Soft -0.50s/f

Mike.
 
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Anyone got any thoughts on the Derby I have ante post bets on Desert Crown, Stone Age and Walk of Stars but I was really taken with West Wind Blows win at Nottingham and I think he is overpriced at 33-1 his figure that day puts him joint 3rd on my figures for the Derby
 
TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother not wanting to pry into your secrets are there any dark horses in the 2yo ranks, I thought I had a nice list with some dark horses on it, but looking at timeforms top 2yo's all of my dark horses are on there with the exception of HOLGUIN so not really a dark horse list 😢
 
Larry said:
@
TheBluesBrother
TheBluesBrother not wanting to pry into your secrets are there any dark horses in the 2yo ranks
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The way I work these days having speed figures for every horse in every race doesn't really come under the terminology "Dark Horses".

This wasn't the case back in the 80s and 90s when my good friend Colin Ratcliffe was the head lad for Paul Cole who gave me Kuantan who made his debut at Royal Ascot and won the Windsor Castle Stakes at 11/1, Coventry Stakes winner Dilum, Culture Vulture and many others.

2yo.png

My rule of thumb reads any horse who earns a speed figure of 60 or over is above average.

Looking at my 2yo list Noble Style is top of the tree with a speed figure of 72 and I would be very surprised if there is any horse at this moment in time who can beat him, it's nice to see that Paul Cole has a nice one in Royal Scotsman.

These were put today in the RP.

RPR.PNG

Mike.
 
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Re The Derby.

I posted my selections elsewhere.
My main two hopes are Changing of the Guard and United Nations.
I think jockeys make a difference, so, I'll go in again, when I see the riding arrangements.

That said I have eight runners antepost, some of which will be non-runners. :D
My intention is to be there again on the Hill, but, I'm a bit worried about disruption from the Royal festivities. Bank holidays and things often mean transport facilities go to pieces - and I'm not talking about airports in half-term.
 
I always used to think 2yo horses improved on their 2nd run but nowadays a lot of horses are putting up their best figures on their 1st runs, Noble Style should be a shoo in for whichever race it contests at Royal Ascot & provided they avoid each other so should Persian force & Dramatised but I don’t think they’ll have to improve much if at all to win their respective entries
As you know I’m no speed guru so I’m hoping TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother can put me right if I’m miles off the mark
 
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