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C'mon Leeds!

Leodis

Leodis

Gelding
The figures would suggest that Leeds have a tough game today.

There's current value in the home team which has a good A/E stat and +6.85 profit when playing at home. The overs market is currently offering value also. However, this is before the team sheets are released.

The intertwining, momentum graph usually means an unpredictable match ahead.
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At first glance , my data-crunching confirms it to be a tough game for sure. Based generally on Sunderland's consistent Home form and Leeds fragile away form.

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The same data predicted a 3-1 win for Brentford at value odds.

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However, Leeds aren't afraid to concede a goal, as they have been producing their own goal scoring threats from set pieces. (Free Kicks, Corners and Throw-ins). That's hard to defend against, and will put any defence on edge in their own half. Also, Leeds have some big units out there not afraid to get physical at times.
 
Great thread - now it’s started I cannot be accused of Jinxing the the most underrated Football club in the world - thank you.

Sunderland v Leeds United - Stadium of Light, 2pm
League Position:
∙ Sunderland: 6th with 27 points
∙ Leeds: 16th with 19 points
Key Absences:
Sunderland - heavily depleted:
∙ Noah Sadiki, Chemsdine Talbi, Reinildo Mandava, Bertrand Traore, Arthur Masuaku, Habib Diarra (all AFCON)
∙ Luke O’Nien (suspended), Aji Alese (shoulder)
Leeds:
∙ Lukas Nmecha (thigh), Sean Longstaff (calf), Daniel James (thigh)
Form:
∙ Sunderland: Unbeaten in 9 home games, scoring in all 9. Two consecutive clean sheets but only 1 goal in last 3 matches.
∙ Leeds: Won 2, drew 2 of last 4. Scored 3+ in three of last four. Beat Palace 4-1, drew 3-3 with Liverpool, beat Chelsea 3-1.
∙ Leeds away: Just 1 win in last 9 away games (at Wolves), but scoring in last 3 on the road while conceding in all 9.
Head to Head:
∙ Leeds won last meeting 2-1 in February (Championship). Farke’s only win in 6 against Sunderland.
∙ At Stadium of Light: Sunderland lead 24-16 in 48 games.
Key Factors:
1. AFCON is massive - Sunderland missing 6 players including Diarra (their record signing) and Traore. That’s a huge chunk of attacking threat gone.
2. Leeds’ xG surge - They’ve recorded xG of 1.5+ in each of last 6 matches . Creating plenty.
3. Sunderland’s set piece threat - Grant Xhaka has 4 assists from set pieces since joining from Leverkusen. Dan Ballard a danger from corners - more attempts at goal than anyone bar Wilson Isidor.
4. Leeds’ away problem is real - Only win at bottom club Wolves. But their recent attacking form (3 goals vs Chelsea, 3 vs Liverpool, 4 vs Palace) shows genuine firepower.
Assessment:
This is closer than the table suggests. Sunderland’s AFCON losses are significant - they’re relying heavily on Brobbey up top with limited attacking support. Leeds have found form at exactly the right time with Farke’s 3-5-2 clicking.
Sunderland’s home fortress vs Leeds’ away struggles creates genuine tension. The Black Cats will likely focus on set pieces given their depleted options - Ballard from Xhaka deliveries is their best route to goal.
Leeds should create chances but historically struggle to convert away. Both teams to score looks likely given Leeds’ recent scoring run and Sunderland’s home record.
Odds: Sunderland 8-5, Leeds 6-4, Draw 15-8
Draw or low-scoring Leeds win feels the shape of this. Sunderland’s missing bodies might just tip it.

Looks like it’s a must needed 3 pts on the road win for Leeds
 
DuckandDive said:
Good shout with the AFCON players impact.

Leeds had the best xG and Attack/Momentum, so a fair chance of 3 pts missed.

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Yes - but 1point away from home is never unacceptable - our Achilles has been defence and still looks a bit shaky but deffo getting better
, injury to Rodan is a problem , the good point is Calvert Lewis remains on track , problem would be if we lose him to injury or even a dip in his form would present us a problem.
 
Leeds had their tails up in the second half and soon got the equaliser to take a well deserved point home. It could've easily been 3, barring a few missed chances.

The Rodon absence was a worry but they seemed to hold it together well.

Next stop, Anfield.
 
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The xg would suggest Liverpool will be only 1 goal better than Leeds in this match, so could be a close affair.

Leeds have manged to perform better than them in two of their last three away games. They are still not profitable to back (-6.26 pts) and have a low A/E stat away.

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An interesting line-up tonight and I must admit to double-checking that it wasn't a cup game. Maybe Farke was playing for a point or an expected loss and saving the first players for the next few games. Some of which are winnable.

As it turned out, Liverpool played a bad game and a full-strength Leeds might just have bagged the 3 points.

Happy with the draw though.
 
Leodis said:
An interesting line-up tonight and I must admit to double-checking that it wasn't a cup game. Maybe Farke was playing for a point or an expected loss and saving the first players for the next few games. Some of which are winnable.

As it turned out, Liverpool played a bad game and a full-strength Leeds might just have bagged the 3 points.

Happy with the draw though.
Click to expand...
great result
 
I never like it when these two play, as Leeds have a tendency to focus on beating the team, rather than winning the match and never works out well.

Having said that, the stat's look good for Leeds.

The momentum graph suggests that ,overall, they have been the better, performing team.

A good power rating and also profitable (+2.11) when playing at home.

There's current value in the overs and the Xg would suggest a few goals going in.


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Tonight's game looks a bit unpredictable, judging from the momentum graph.

The XG would suggest that Everton have a slight edge, but only by one goal.

Neither are profitable to back in the 1 X 2 at the moment, being -1.02 & -8.26, respectively.

We are good enough to get at least a draw though!

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Nothing that remotely looks like any value when comparing my prediction model to the live market. The tissue prices are near enough the same, and with all the other markets too!

Of course stats don't tell you everything, Dominic Calvin-Lewis will relish the chance to score against his old club, and that will likely make the difference. If he does score, it'll likely be in the first half.

1-1, 1-0, 1-2 predicted in this game.

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It's very difficult getting value in regular markets, as the margins are almost non existent when it comes to football.

Slightly better can be found by dutching correct scores if you have a solid XG algo to work with. The Asian HCP is also worth a look.
 
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