Class/form horses

[JennyK]

T Tufnel

I think there is an intrinsic problem with days like today - too many races. As you know, I almost exclusively analyse sprint handicaps but even so when I started looking at cards last night there were six, which is four more than I can comfortably manage. Actually it soon reduced to five, because the 6.46 Lingfield is one I wouldn't look at even if it were the only sprint handicap, but five, and two with large fields ... too much.

The problem, of course, is two-fold. On the one hand, for me at least too much time required to do more than a couple properly. On the other, the dreaded FOMO - the concern that one of those one doesn't do will, when reviewed later, prove to have had a rock-solid class/form horse.

Today I was lucky because I chose the 1.50 at Newbury and the Great St Wilfred and in different ways they worked out. A decent class/form horse in the former and too much conflict in the latter. Tomorrow, thank goodness, just two at Pontefract so at least there is no choice problem. Hopefully you'll have a better day.

 

[Chesham]

Look forward to your Pontefract pre race analysis JennyK. I hope it is not as ambiguous as todays offering.

 

[gerry]

Well with same idea as today at ponte tomorrow here my winners in a race with snips. Didn't take long at all.
4 45 PONTEFRACT ROYAL FIXATION-COMING GOOD.
5 15 PONTEFRACT JEZ BOMB-SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLASS MAYBE.
5 45 PONTEFRACT ROCKING ENDS-MARK A SLIGHT WORRY.
6 15 PONTEFRACT LETSBEFRANK-MIGHT OUT STAY UNKNOWNS.
6 45 PONTEFRACT VEBLEN GOLD- WHATS THE SAYING SORE THUMB.

 

[Leodis]

T Tufnel
I think there is an intrinsic problem with days like today - too many races.

Using certain filters to find what I would class as 'reliable' races, narrowed it down to about 7. Then, after applying the Bowers filter, there was a total of two races left to to concentrate on for the day.

It even tires me out, looking at the amount of races some people attempt to cover in a day.

Regards

 

[Kraldrew]

I suppose the more complicated the Method/System will take longer than a simple one if it is not Automated the races below took 5 mins total
Valen Good looks like the one to beat with a saver on Alfa Whiteburd as a saver Prices permitting

The next race is tighter and conflicting

Badri and Flourescence head the race but Vintage Clarets could spoil the party No Bet in that race for me

 

[Kraldrew]

Horse​	RPR​	RPR​	Class​	Ability​	Adj RPR​	Final URM​
Valen Good​	109​	95​	5​	70​	95​	165​
Alfa Whiteburd​	99​	97​	5​	67​	104​	171​
Rare Change​	97​	84​	4​	62​	89​	151​
Russet Gold​	110​	78​	4​	64​	85​	149​
Yes Im Mali​	88​	81​	5​	58​	88​	146​
The Good Biscuit​	87​	80​	3​	57​	88​	145​
Havana Rum​	87​	71​	5​	54​	89​	143​
Mondammej​	106​	48​	3​	52​	65​	117​
Fiscal Policy​	84​	69​	3​	52​	76​	128​
​	​	​	​	​	​	​
Badri​	109​	86​	5​	67​	86​	153​
Fluorescence​	99​	97​	5​	67​	104​	171​
Baker Blue​	99​	95​	4​	66​	102​	168​
Rocking Ends​	98​	95​	5​	66​	103​	169​
Kylian​	104​	84​	5​	64​	93​	157​
Vintage Clarets​	105​	87​	5​	66​	106​	172​
One And Gone​	87​	71​	4​	54​	90​	144​
Reigning Profit​	87​	80​	5​	57​	99​	156​

 

[gerry]

cant see vintage clarets spoiling it tomorrow needs softer going in my eyes now days.

 

[JennyK]

My stats, for handicaps since 01/01/23, support your view on going preferences, gerry

	Runs​	Wins​	1st 3​	%​
	​	​	​	​
aw	6​	1​	3​	50.0​
f	0​	0​	0​	​
g/f	7​	1​	1​	14.3​
g	12​	1​	3​	25.0​
g/s	11​	2​	6​	54.5​
s	7​	1​	2​	28.6​
h	5​	1​	2​	40.0​

 

[Tufnel]

T Tufnel

I think there is an intrinsic problem with days like today - too many races. As you know, I almost exclusively analyse sprint handicaps but even so when I started looking at cards last night there were six, which is four more than I can comfortably manage. Actually it soon reduced to five, because the 6.46 Lingfield is one I wouldn't look at even if it were the only sprint handicap, but five, and two with large fields ... too much.

The problem, of course, is two-fold. On the one hand, for me at least too much time required to do more than a couple properly. On the other, the dreaded FOMO - the concern that one of those one doesn't do will, when reviewed later, prove to have had a rock-solid class/form horse.

Today I was lucky because I chose the 1.50 at Newbury and the Great St Wilfred and in different ways they worked out. A decent class/form horse in the former and too much conflict in the latter. Tomorrow, thank goodness, just two at Pontefract so at least there is no choice problem. Hopefully you'll have a better day.

I made too many mistakes yesterday. Rushed things and missed some vital points. Just one example was my avoidance of Havana Blue. I failed to realise until it was too late, that the race was restricted to grey horses. Huge really in terms of who could turn up for that race as opposed to his other good runs.

Missing Saxon Grace for the 2nd time in a week was another slaps head scenario. Obviously he wasn't in the sort of races VDW suggested, butit was a huge eye catcher just a couple of weeks agao and it's won 3 on the trot now, including from the front yesterday which showed the lack of effort run to be even more nonsensical as they claimed they didn't think he would stay that night.

Anyway today looks trappy and the 2 horses I'm backing are both down in class and put in decent efforts to my eye in those better races last time.

In the 4:15 at Pontefract I like Si Grass who shows a nice persistent effort in the races she has been involved in the finish of. And she ran very well at Goodwood after a significant lay off and she's sure to be better suited to this lesser class of race against horses who are fairly well exposed.

Luna Celeste seemed to show a lot of improvement last time when holding off the fav (who doesn't win very often). The 2nd horse had made what looked a winning late challenge as LC kicked for home, but it couldn't get by LC who seemed to respond.

But I still prefer Si Grass today, so I'm backing that one.

Later on the same card and for the same yard, I think Pole Star has an excellent chance to open his account for the season in the 6:15. He is well handicapped on his 3 valuable handicap wins last season and the way he ran at Ascot last week, just behind Mountain Road who'd beaten him earlier in the season suggests to me he is ready to kick on for the rest of the season. Jason Hart a good booking too.

Pole Star has to be the class/form horse too in my view. I think today is his day in what is the lowest class race he's tackled since April.
So he's a bet for me.

 

[JennyK]

Hope they work out for you, T Tufnel.

 

[Tufnel]

Another couple of donkeys there today.

If I owned Pole Star I'd be sending it to another trainer, because it needs a change of scenery. How can you go from winning 50k handicaps a year ago as a 3 year old to not even being able to lay up over 2 and quarter miles in a small field?

Should have been wary of the yard too. I just don't seem to find many of their winners since the old man handed over the reigns.

 

[Tufnel]

And that last result in the sprint at Pontefract represents what a game of chance this form reading really is. Pretty sure I went for The Good Biscuit last time when Alfie Whiteburd absolutely put them all to bed. TGB running flat that day.

Today, I didn't back any of them but didn't have the conviction to back up my choice from last time and just watched it bolt in at 10/1 with AW out of the frame.

We can all rationalise afterwards or even before to say so and so is handicapped to the hilt etc, but horses have a habit of appearing to lose because they are over burdened or such like and then bouncing back next time when nobody wants to back them.

Pretty annoying after a losing day. That's 2 horses this weekend I backed last time when they lost and they go and win next time out.

Think I'll take fishing. I'll probably catch even less than I do now but at least it doesn't cost as much.

 

[JennyK]

I think the problem lto with The Good Biscuit, T Tufnel, was that he was carrying a penalty and up 8lb in the relative weights from the first of his two consecutive Pontefract wins, all three races being of much the same class. Today he ran off 2lb less in the relative weights and carried 6lb less actual weight than lto, which evidently suited him better despite it being a classier race. Alfa Whiteburd today was in very much the same position as The Good Biscuit on 05/08/26. Maybe he will emulate him and win next time out.

An easy day from the point of view of both Pontefract sprint handicaps. The two class/form horses were obvious, as were the flaws which put beyond doubt that they were in the >80% to be left unbacked category. Judging by the SP, I imagine quite a few caught a cold with Veblen Good.

A whole batch of sprint handicaps tomorrow. With two turf cards, we really need a couple of aw cards on a Monday in August!

 

[gerry]

Well with same idea as today at ponte tomorrow here my winners in a race with snips. Didn't take long at all.
4 45 PONTEFRACT ROYAL FIXATION-COMING GOOD.
5 15 PONTEFRACT JEZ BOMB-SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLASS MAYBE.
5 45 PONTEFRACT ROCKING ENDS-MARK A SLIGHT WORRY.
6 15 PONTEFRACT LETSBEFRANK-MIGHT OUT STAY UNKNOWNS.
6 45 PONTEFRACT VEBLEN GOLD- WHATS THE SAYING SORE THUMB.

What did i learn today from my horses was out all day but one winner 9/2 from 5 bets is enough to make tiny profit ,so after saturday win i should not complain but i will be total honest as you have to be i did think i would make profit saturday to and today i was like this could be bad so i will take the winner and run but yet again the small snippets are good to remind me , coming good didnt, higher class was true but run poor anyway, mark to high was, might out stay them did do just that, sore thumb was really disappointing still annoyed at that but i did say on other thread just other day horses who run massive race last time out some time don't perform next time but did have 22 day break might not have been enough was staying on not beat far but i am still mad lol.
I will keep putting them on this thread to look back on with snippets of thought after study see where i can improve or leave out that's only two days of them but i don't have any spread sheet i am old school so no reminders bar here but if anyone wants to log them on spread sheet with some sort of chart to record them we could together keep track of them or i will just need look back and forth try remember them.

 

[gerry]

Looking at todays its not the best racing but is Monday so we carry on here my selections in what could be tight day.
3 15 CATTERICK BARMYBLADE-COULD BE FAST FURIOUS AND DRAW.
4 15 CATTERICK TEES AGGREGATES - GOT TOUGH DRAW.
4 45 CATTERICK VINCE LE PRINCE -WELL IN REALLY.
5 20 WINDSOR SHOUTH SHORE -LIKES TRACK.
6 55 WINDSOR BUCCABAY- COULD BE COMING TO HAND.
7 55 WINDSOR GUINESS LAD -BEST OF BAD LOT.

 

[gerry]

Well as i thought before hand racing did not go to plan yesterday poor racing giving for me at least poor results.
What have i learned myself though is some thing i keep asking my self but after so long that should be clear but its not looking at some of the surprise big price winners and horses running poorer than should have you cant take it lightly but also you cant give up on your self ever.
So here my reaction to it from straight instant thinking which is usually correct more often than not, It is that any horse and i do mean just about any horse is its hard to win a race and get the right result of a horse race so much can go wrong and does or something finds something it never has showed .
But the one thing standing out is that poorer races are more likely to through up poor results but also in the other hand take any big meeting where all the better horses all run against each other makes those meetings tough to get winners so even the good race get congested alot of the time.
So its just possible that backing daily is a cert loss long term just with the style of winners coming day in day out and have to look closer not at how picking your horses out but how your betting is the secret are you going to ruin your past time fun for more serious bets which could still go down anyway or stick to more simple system that gives winners every so often but a lot of joy.
There is no doubt at the front of market the bookies hammering us because they know the market is stronger now than in our past is it some thing we know and just accept i think it is actually.
I seem to do ok keeping things to small limits and not loosing a lot or even prolonging it more but the profits not coming in flow of months never mind years so its a real deep thought time for me on results going forward i think i might have thought of something to start it in what i have said in this as i am writing it but time will tell i will work on that when i get back from gold as it can mull round my head for few hours.
It could be dutching or more bets some how but i am not a lover of betting singles on races i like my multi bets the reason being thats how i keep my losses down to small amounts and as Chesham said on other thread i read this morning we dont need to worry about changing tackt as we are happy to change and try new ideas we dont claim to be making fortunes on horses and admitting not happy not just with picks but with results new approach is good not bad thing its analysing where its wrong so where i have got to just now of top of head i might add is poor races are just unpredictable top races are to congested alot of time so the good races that arent congested is where the consistency sits.

 

[JennyK]

"are you going to ruin your past time fun for more serious bets which could still go down anyway or stick to more simple system that gives winners every so often but a lot of joy."

That seems to be the core issue, really, gerry. Pastime or business? If the former, small losses arguably add up to the cost of any hobby. With my annual fishing licence and club membership, I lay out nearly £150 a year before casting a line. Your approach seems spot on for racing as a pastime; prepared to lose a little often, but with multiples once in a while a return about which to be excited.

Today's racing strikes me as even more dire than yesterday's. Still, York to which to look forward.

 

[Chesham]

Hi gerry

I find a good starting point to the Week is Tuesdays when the BHA issue their revised Handicap Ratings. Find the Bench Mark Horse that the BHA handicapper has used and then see where he may have got his Revised Handicap wrong . Add these to aTracker. Watch where the trainers have them entered Quite often more than one race .

 

[Outlander]

Hi gerry

I find a good starting point to the Week is Tuesdays when the BHA issue their revised Handicap Ratings. Find the Bench Mark Horse that the BHA handicapper has used and then see where he may have got his Revised Handicap wrong . Add these to aTracker. Watch where the trainers have them entered Quite often more than one race .

I often think there are more than 24 hours in your days Chesham, they need you running the country.

 

[stedz]

Imagine having him as a mentor starting out. He should write some books.