Class/form horses

[JennyK]

Nellsman

I've found my notes on the GR, Lincs winners and to say they are patchy would be putting it kindly. Those on one are full enough for me to work from, others will need data gaps filling in.

The one is Orchestra Stall, won 5/1 on 26/08/96

Subject to correction, I have the ability ratings for the race as:

Orchestra Stall 69
Sea Victor 57
Speed To Lead 45
Welsh Mill 43
Harbour Island 41
Danjing 37
Noufari 36
Embryonic 35
Deanos Beeno 28
Great Easby 0

Orchestra Stall was a VDW "form" horse, therefore the class/form horse on my interpretation of his main method as there were no plainly negative conditions issues.

These top on ability ones who are also "form" horses are a potent force, as I was reminded almost to my embarrassment with Diligently in the Windsor race on Monday when he came second to Trefor. I'd adjusted his rating downwards - a case of being too clever by half. The 6.43 at Thirsk this evening again underlines the power of that combination, with a class/form horse who, judging by his sp, escaped the market's attention.

I'll post some more of the GR Lincs ones assuming there are other handicaps, once I've filled out the necessary data missing from my notes. IF the others work out like Orchestra Stall, GR, Lincs was either another VDW pseudonym or someone who had worked out his method, probably before Guest or Lee did.

ps one of the GR, Lincs ones won at 20/1 and on checking that was a handicap. I'll do that next and if the horse, Ninia, 31/08/96, turns out to be the VDW class/form horse, I'll be very interested in checking the rest.

 

[nagwa]

Quality bets letter

 

[JennyK]

Ninia, won 20/1, 31/08/96

Again subject to correction, the ability ratings were:

Vindaloo 106
Angus-G 55
Hardy Dancer 50
Clifton Fox 46
Ninia 45
Kriscliffe 43
Sharpical 41
Frezeliere 40
Exemption 39
Early Peace 36
Filial 36
Game Ploy 36
Edan Heights 34
Ashby Hill 33
White Plains 31
Fahs 30
Bakers Daughter 27
Ocean Park 27
A-Aasem 0
Melomania 0

Vindaloo, Hardy Dancer and Clifton Fox were not "form" horses.

Nina was a "form" horse but so unquestionably was Angus-G and I can see no plainly negative conditions issues for either.

So on my interpretation of VDW's main method Angus-G would have been the class/form horse, with Ninia second on class/form. They finished first and second, but in the "wrong" order.

Assuming I've got the right ability ratings, and I have checked Ninia and Angus-G's on the Post site, unless I've missed something on conditions, and I am pretty confident I haven't, this GR, Lincs example does not conform to my interpretation of VDW's main method, unless of course he viewed the two as a book but only mentioned the winner in the published piece.

Most of the other GR, Lincs examples are handicaps so I'll try another tomorrow.

 

[Tufnel]

Quality bets letter

Does that letter pre date the Jock Bingham books I wonder.

 

[Thomas]

I have a very vague recollection that Matt Kent , worked in London in the entertainment business, logistics maybe, in theatre land, but I am not certain.

He didn't at the time anyway, have the vdw saga worked out, and after posting a number of losers, he started laying rather than backing.

He seemed to get on well with Lee and Fulham and always came across as a decent fellow.

 

[JennyK]

Yes, T Tufnel. Jock Bingham's earliest published booklet was 4 Ways 2 Win and the earliest example in it was a race on 02/01/95, the latest 06/09/95, so it could not have been published until Autumn 1995.

T Thomas, I think Matt Gray worked in the music business. I have spoken to someone who knew him and he was kind enough to give that person an opinion on a demo tape his son's friends had made. His advice was don't give up the day job!

 

[Thomas]

JennyK
You are correct it was the music industry, I wasn't too far away, like my betting

 

[JennyK]

Chris's Lad, won 10/1, 30/08/96

Subject to correction, the ability ratings were:

Roseberry Avenue 39
Amiarge 35
Chris's Lad 34
Broughtons Formula 33
Ela Man Howa 32
Clifton Game 28
Candle Smoke 27
Code Red 0
Madjak Jereeb 0
Rivercare 0
Sea Freedom 0

A bit like the race won by Ninia. Roseberry Avenue was the highest ability-rated "form" horse, with Chris's Lad second on class/form. (Amairge not a VDW "form" horse.)

Whoever found them, either before the races or as good after-race examples, clearly knew what they were doing in terms of VDW's method.

 

[OnTheNod]

Chris's Lad, won 10/1, 30/08/96

Subject to correction, the ability ratings were:

Roseberry Avenue 39
Amiarge 35
Chris's Lad 34
Broughtons Formula 33
Ela Man Howa 32
Clifton Game 28
Candle Smoke 27
Code Red 0
Madjak Jereeb 0
Rivercare 0
Sea Freedom 0

A bit like the race won by Ninia. Roseberry Avenue was the highest ability-rated "form" horse, with Chris's Lad second on class/form. (Amairge not a VDW "form" horse.)

Whoever found them, either before the races or as good after-race examples, clearly knew what they were doing in terms of VDW's method.

Yes but one can wait till things line up with a method and then write up, the thing is does this a lot of the time. I have never done this as such so never really tried i use to at all classes and mainly sprints like yourself.

 

[Chesham]

Front-End Pace Mapping & Tactical Setup​

The primary objective is to map the front end of the race before doing anything else to evaluate if any runner qualifies for the 'Lone Speed Anomaly' criteria and a free pass on the lead.

An analysis of the early in-running trajectories across this 6-furlong sprint reveals absolute chaos on the front end:

• Archduke Ferdinand: "Made all, asserted 1f out" in his recent win (1st → 1st → 1st).
  TXT+ 1
  
  
• Act Of Violence: "Soon led, went clear over 1f out" (1st → 1st → 1st).
  TXT+ 1
  
  
• First Folio: Historically aggressive early, leading over 2f out at Yarmouth (1st → 1st → 1st).
  TXT+ 1
  
  
• Havana Blue: "Led overall... looked in control entering final 1f" (4th → 2nd → 1st).
  TXT+ 1
  
  
• Maelstrom: "Led after 2f... led over 2f out" (3rd → 1st → 2nd).
  TXT+ 1
  

Pace Verdict: There is no 'Lone Speed Anomaly' in this field. With half the field possessing a relentless need to press or outright lead, this race profiles as a heavy Pace Collapse. The front-runners are virtually guaranteed to burn each other out, heavily penalizing their true win probabilities and setting the race up for a closer.

2.10 Newmarket (July) – Master Summary Chart​

Saturday, 15th August 2026 | Class 4 Handicap | 6f Turf (Good to Firm) | Avg OR: 72 | Median OR: 72.5

TXT+ 1

No. & Horse	OR	TFR	Tfigs (Last 3)	PR	SJRT (Win/ITM)	DOD	In-Running Trajectory	Exact Tissue (Implied %)	Live Betfair	Verdict
1. Havana Blue	80 TXT	90 TXT	87, 75, 87 TXT	271 TXT	9% / 28% TXT	-0.5 TXT	4th → 2nd → 1st TXT	4/1 (20.0%)	3.75 TXT	Severe Underlay(Pace pressure victim) TXT+ 1
7. Strike	70 TXT	77 TXT	69, 57, 65 TXT	265 TXT	0% / 25% TXT	+0.5 TXT	6th → 5th → 1st TXT	11/2 (15.4%)	10.0 TXT	Overlay, but > 9/2 Limit (Pass) TXT+ 1
5. Secret Guest	73 TXT	82 TXT	56, 70, 82 TXT	240 TXT	50% / 50% TXT	+9.0 TXT	11th →10th → 7th TXT	13/2 (13.3%)	9.6 TXT	Overlay, but > 9/2 Limit (Pass) TXT+ 1
3. Archduke Ferdinand	79 TXT	88 TXT	87, 64, 66 TXT	261 TXT	8% / 43% TXT	+3.5 TXT	1st → 1st → 1st TXT	15/2 (11.8%)	7.6 TXT	Underlay (Pace collapse risk) TXT+ 1
2. Maelstrom	80 TXT	82 TXT	66, 55, 85 TXT	233 TXT	14% / 41% TXT	+6.5 TXT	3rd → 1st → 2nd TXT	9/1 (10.0%)	13.5 TXT	Pass (Pace victim) TXT+ 1
9. Act Of Violence	62 TXT	70 TXT	70, 41, 36 TXT	242 TXT	12% / 33% TXT	+5.0 TXT	1st → 1st → 1st TXT	12/1 (7.7%)	12.5 TXT	Pass (Pace victim) TXT+ 1
4. First Folio	73 TXT	82 TXT	70, 72, 61 TXT	228 TXT	14% / 32% TXT	+4.0 TXT	4th → 3rd → 3rd TXT	14/1 (6.7%)	12.5 TXT	Underlay (Losing streak) TXT+ 1
6. Cayman Tai	72 TXT	80 TXT	73, 78, 53 TXT	237 TXT	14% / 43% TXT	+1.5 TXT	9th → 8th → 7th TXT	16/1 (5.9%)	29.0 TXT	Pass (Poor SR) TXT+ 1
8. Nevasca Cinza	72 TXT	77 TXT	66, 71, 20 TXT	239 TXT	11% / 28% TXT	+5.0 TXT	4th → 3rd → 2nd TXT	18/1 (5.3%)	17.0 TXT	Underlay(Exposed maiden) TXT+ 1
10. Fancy Dancer	56 TXT	54 TXT	50, 38, 4 TXT	200 TXT	17% / 39% TXT	-1.0 TXT	2nd → 2nd → 3rd TXT	25/1 (3.8%)	170.0 TXT	Pass (Outclassed) TXT+ 1

(Total Book Probability: 99.9%)

Timeform Interpretation & Value Verification​

• Havana Blue (Tissue 4/1 vs Betfair 3.75): He boasts the highest TFR (90) and consistent recent Tfigs (87, 75, 87), validating his status as the class of the field. Dropping to a -0.5 kg DOD makes him highly competitive, but the Betfair market has absolutely crushed his price. Factoring in the impending pace duel that threatens to soften him up, taking 3.75 on a true 4/1 (5.0) probability is a severe long-term mathematical trap.
  TXT+ 3
  
  
• The Closers (Strike & Secret Guest): The algorithmic projection upgrades the closers heavily due to the front-end map. Strike (TFR 77) arrives off a win, and Secret Guest (TFR 82) drops down from significantly stronger Class 4 (0-85) company. Both offer live market overlays at 10.0 and 9.6 respectively on Betfair, but they mathematically fall outside the strict 9/2 (5.5) tissue limit required for investment.
  TXT+ 4
  

Execution Protocol: Strict Pass​

There are zero horses in this field that meet the non-negotiable threshold of holding a true tissue price of 9/2 or shorter while simultaneously offering a live market overlay.

Result: No Bet Race.