Class/form horses

[Chesham]

Hi gerry

I share these on Tuesdays with a few other Forum Members. Note that TheBluesBrother had the Winner as being 4Lb better than its OR . (I only look at TBB Figures after the Report has been generated, but always a positive if TBB has the winner ahead of his mark.

Note that Sanafi Zabeel was dropped 1lb by the handicapper after this race







Sanafi Zabeel looks of interest as it looks like Jim Goldie trying to go under the radar to its OR Down

The Dual-Metric Master Engine is active. The RobustScaler protocol has processed the telemetry for the Book The Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup Handicap, confirming the severe MARS macro-filter alert: this Class 5 sprint produced an explosive 100.5 RSSF, running to a definitive Class 3 standard off a blistering 9.3/10 Time Index clip.

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Ali Galliers-Pratt has fallen completely into the Class-Bias Trap.

Runninsonofagun served as the rigid anchor. By anchoring him on his 68 performance figure (holding his mark at 68), the handicapper compressed this 12-runner field into the 0-70 Class 5 narrative. In doing so, Galliers-Pratt completely ignored the class-breaking 100.5 RSSF and the massive positional penalties overcome by the closers.

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Here is the exact mechanical breakdown exposing the true algorithmic value hidden within this race.

Step 1: Tactical Front-End Mapping & Robust Filtration​

The 7f 62y track at Ayr on Good ground was run at a furious pace (Vs. Par -2.69s).

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• The Zero-Line: Runninsonofagun forced the pace from the start, establishing the zero-line with a rapid 17.53sopening furlong.
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• The Robust Baseline: In a race run at a 9.3/10 Time Index, the front-runners set an unrelenting tempo. Closing from off the pace required immense mechanical effort, as evidenced by the field stringing out early.
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• The Hidden Yardage (Pace/Position Penalty):On a 7f scale, 0.167s = 1 length = 2.5 lbs.
  • Sanafi Zabeel (5th): Held up in rear early, clocking 18.69s opening furlong. Forfeited 1.16 seconds (6.95 lengths) to the leader. At 2.5 lbs per length, he spotted the field +17.4 lbs.
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  • Milford Grange (4th): Midfield early, clocking 18.49s opening furlong. Forfeited 0.96s (5.75 lengths) = +14.4 lbs.
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  • Tap Dancer (6th): Midfield early, clocking 18.30s opening furlong. Forfeited 0.77s (4.61 lengths) = +11.5 lbs.
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  • Black Storm (3rd): Prominent early, clocking 17.97s opening furlong. Forfeited 0.44s (2.63 lengths) = +6.6 lbs.
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  • Supreme Clarets (1st): Chased leaders, clocking 17.72s opening furlong. Forfeited 0.19s (1.14 lengths) = +2.9 lbs.
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  • Runninsonofagun (2nd) : Led overall, clocking 17.53s opening furlong. Forfeited 0s = 0 lbs.
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Step 2: Benchmark Trap Identification​

By anchoring Runninsonofagun on 68, Galliers-Pratt mathematically suppressed the race's underlying speed metrics.

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• Status: Class-Bias Blindness. Because the handicapper refused to acknowledge the 100.5 RSSF in a Class 5 handicap, she compressed the winner, raising Supreme Clarets 5 lbs to 70. Furthermore, she dropped Sanafi Zabeel (from 64 to 63) and Milford Grange (from 67 to 66) for failing to catch the leaders, completely ignoring their massive pace/positional deficits.
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Step 3: Gemini Handicap Mark & BHA Sync Check​

(Formula: Beaten Horses = BHA Perf Fig + Hidden Penalty. Winners = Handicap Ran Off + Hidden Penalty).

• Supreme Clarets (1st)
  • Gemini Mark: 65 (Ran Off) + 2.9 lbs = 67.9
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  • New BHA Mark: 70
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  • Sync Delta: -2.1 lbs
• Runninsonofagun (2nd) (Benchmark)
  • BHA Perf Fig: 68. Hidden Penalty: 0 lbs.
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  • Gemini Mark: 68.0
  • New BHA Mark: 68
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  • Sync Delta: Par
• Black Storm (3rd)
  • BHA Perf Fig: 65. Hidden Penalty: +6.6 lbs.
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  • Gemini Mark: 71.6
  • New BHA Mark: 66
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  • Sync Delta: +5.6 lbs
• Milford Grange (4th)
  • BHA Perf Fig: 64. Hidden Penalty: +14.4 lbs.
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  • Gemini Mark: 78.4
  • New BHA Mark: 66
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  • Sync Delta: +12.4 lbs
• Sanafi Zabeel (5th)
  • BHA Perf Fig: 61. Hidden Penalty: +17.4 lbs.
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  • Gemini Mark: 78.4
  • New BHA Mark: 63
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  • Sync Delta: +15.4 lbs

Step 4: The Dual-Metric KNN Flag (Target Matrix)​

The Euclidean Output (The Unicorn Hunter)​

• Flagged: Sanafi Zabeel (FR)
• Why: Euclidean math hunts for extreme mechanical anomalies masked by race shape. Sanafi Zabeel spotted the field a staggering +17.4 lbs of early ground in a 9.3/10 pace environment. He was pushed along early in the straight and unsuited by the drop in trip, yet he unleashed the absolute fastest finishing speed in the entire field—an elite 101.44% PR% (top speed 40.94 MPH). The BHA inexplicably dropped his mark from 64 to 63. He holds a massive +15.4 lb True Advantage.
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The Manhattan Output (The Grid Evaluator)​

• Flagged: Supreme Clarets (IRE)
• Why: The Manhattan grid demands structural balance under high pressure. Supreme Clarets chased a relentless front pace, maintained a robust 99.19% PR%, and drew away to win cosily off 65. Backed by the 100.5 RSSF, his performance standard is operating far beyond Class 5 level.
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Revised Race Summary & RobustScaler Chart​

Horse	Tfig	BHA (Off / Perf / New)	Hidden Penalty	Gemini Mark	PR % (IQR Filtered)	True Adv
Supreme Clarets	77 TXT	65 / 70 / 70 TXT	+2.9 lbs (Pace)	67.9	99.19% TXT	-2.1 lbs
Runninsonofagun	75 TXT	67 / 68 / 68 TXT	0 (Zero-Line)	68.0	97.86% TXT	Par
Black Storm	71 TXT	67 / 65 / 66 TXT	+6.6 lbs (Pace)	71.6	97.88% TXT	+5.6 lbs
Milford Grange	70 TXT	67 / 64 / 66 TXT	+14.4 lbs (Pace/Position)	78.4	100.81% TXT	+12.4 lbs
Sanafi Zabeel	67 TXT	64 / 61 / 63 TXT	+17.4 lbs (Pace/Position)	78.4	101.44% TXT	+15.4 lbs

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[Chesham]

Hi gerry

This is the first Race Meeting that looks promising and the Windsor Meeting and Race Six looks the Best one to tackle

Assessment​

Race	Class	Winner	TDIFF (Target: ≤-0.15s)	RSSF Trigger	Status
1	Class 5	Mythological Star	+0.30s	103.3 (Target > 88)	TRIGGER (Severe Class-Breaker)
2	Class 4 (2yo)	Keep Kicking On	+0.53s	80.6	Discard (Juvenile Rule)
3	Class 5 (2yo)	Real Bullet	+0.57s	78.7	Discard (Juvenile Rule)
4	Class 2	Trefor	+0.18s	94.7 (Target > 105)	Discard
5	Class 5	Moonswept	+0.29s	98.1 (Target > 88)	TRIGGER (Class-Breaker)
6	Class 6	My Old Mate	+0.14s	106.6 (Target > 80)	EXTREME TRIGGER (Apex Class-Breaker)

The Algorithmic Hunting Ground​

The filter instantly bypassed the juveniles in Races 2 and 3, and correctly discarded the Class 2 sprint in Race 4, which failed to threaten its elite ceiling.

What remains is a series of escalating Class-Bias Traps, all driven by raw, sustained mechanical speed rather than pace meltdowns:

• Race 1 (Mythological Star): A Class 5 apprentice handicap generating a 103.3 RSSF. This is a massive 15.3 points above the grade ceiling, meaning these horses were operating at a Class 3 standard. Because the TDIFF (+0.30s) was relatively standard, the field likely held its shape, meaning the algorithmic suppression from the BHA will be severe.
• Race 5 (Moonswept): A Class 5 Maiden hitting 98.1 RSSF. While a solid trigger, maidens can be tricky to map accurately for future handicap value if the winner was simply vastly superior to a weak field.
• The Apex Target (Race 6): This is a staggering mathematical outlier. A bottom-tier Class 6 handicap over a mile produced a massive 106.6 RSSF. These horses ran a full 26.6 points above their strict 0-65 grade boundaries, clocking a speed figure that belongs in a Class 2 event. Because it is a Class 6, the handicapper is mathematically shackled. They cannot raise these horses 20+ pounds without breaking the entire grading system, meaning the grid compression here will be historically rigid.

Now we have our race to work on it is worth checking what TheBluesBrother made of the Winner


Ok so far and now let’s look at the BHA Report to see which horse the BHA handicapper has used as a Bench Mark to rate the Race. this one is easy, the 2nd and 3rd horses

Now,you have a starting point to use work out if the BHA handicapper has got any under or over rated

 

[Chesham]

This one is straight Forward

Start with the Horse who was used as the Bench Mark and that is easy Sugar Sugar

• Flagged: Come On Eibhlin (IRE)
• Why: math hunts for extreme mechanical anomalies masked by race shape. Come On Eibhlin ran down in trip, spotted the field +3.5 lbs of early ground into a fast pace, and still generated a robust 99.88% FSP with the second-fastest Final Fraction (56.43 fps). The BHA inexplicably dropped her mark to 68. She holds a solid +3.5 lb True Advantage, and stepping back up in trip, her underlying engine will dominate lower grades.
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​

• Flagged: Melissa Honey (GB)
• Why: Melissa Honey sat off an 8.1/10 pace, minimized her yardage deficit, and unleashed the highest FSP in the field (100.74%). Generating a 100.4 RSSF proves her engine is operating far beyond Class 5 level, and the BHA left her virtually unpenalized with a new mark of just 58. She is a massive +3.5 lb True Advantage play.
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Master Race Summary & Brohamer Velocity Profile​

Horse	Tfig	BHA (Off / Perf / New)	Gemini Mark	FSP %	EP (fps)	Turn-Time (fps)	F3 (fps)	% Early	True Adv
Melissa Honey	63 TXT	56 / 58 / 58 TXT	61.5	100.74% TXT	48.53	60.32	57.05	45.96%	+3.5 lbs
Thunderous Love	69 TXT	62 / 63 / 63 TXT	63.8	100.20% TXT	49.30	59.94	56.71	46.50%	+0.8 lbs
Come On Eibhlin	74 TXT	69 / 68 / 68 TXT	71.5	99.88% TXT	48.86	60.43	56.43	46.40%	+3.5 lbs
Seeing Stars	72 TXT	67 / 66 / 66 TXT	66.0	99.80% TXT	49.56	60.55	56.38	46.78%	Par
Sugar Sugar	70 TXT	67 / 67 / 67 TXT	67.7	99.41% TXT	49.44	60.60	56.07	46.85%	+0.7 lbs

 

[Outlander]

This one is straight Forward

Start with the Horse who wa soused as the Bench Mark and that is easy Sugar Sugar

View attachment 170578

• Flagged: Come On Eibhlin (IRE)
• Why: math hunts for extreme mechanical anomalies masked by race shape. Come On Eibhlin ran down in trip, spotted the field +3.5 lbs of early ground into a fast pace, and still generated a robust 99.88% FSP with the second-fastest Final Fraction (56.43 fps). The BHA inexplicably dropped her mark to 68. She holds a solid +3.5 lb True Advantage, and stepping back up in trip, her underlying engine will dominate lower grades.
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​

• Flagged: Melissa Honey (GB)
• Why: Melissa Honey sat off an 8.1/10 pace, minimized her yardage deficit, and unleashed the highest FSP in the field (100.74%). Generating a 100.4 RSSF proves her engine is operating far beyond Class 5 level, and the BHA left her virtually unpenalized with a new mark of just 58. She is a massive +3.5 lb True Advantage play.
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Master Race Summary & Brohamer Velocity Profile​

Horse	Tfig	BHA (Off / Perf / New)	Gemini Mark	FSP %	EP (fps)	Turn-Time (fps)	F3 (fps)	% Early	True Adv
Melissa Honey	63 TXT	56 / 58 / 58 TXT	61.5	100.74% TXT	48.53	60.32	57.05	45.96%	+3.5 lbs
Thunderous Love	69 TXT	62 / 63 / 63 TXT	63.8	100.20% TXT	49.30	59.94	56.71	46.50%	+0.8 lbs
Come On Eibhlin	74 TXT	69 / 68 / 68 TXT	71.5	99.88% TXT	48.86	60.43	56.43	46.40%	+3.5 lbs
Seeing Stars	72 TXT	67 / 66 / 66 TXT	66.0	99.80% TXT	49.56	60.55	56.38	46.78%	Par
Sugar Sugar	70 TXT	67 / 67 / 67 TXT	67.7	99.41% TXT	49.44	60.60	56.07	46.85%	+0.7 lbs

I don't think Sugar Sugar is the BHA benchmark horse in this race Chesham.
Prior to this race Sugar Sugar had placed 2nd and won last time, the BHA handicappers won’t drop horses like this straight after a win, hence why they have kept the mark on 67.
The real benchmark they have used is between Thunderous Love raised 1lb and Come On Eibhlin dropped 1lb.
Of course when you are handicapping you can choose whatever horse you want as the benchmark horse.

 

[Chesham]

Hi Outlander

Revised Mark for Sugar Sugar remains the Same 67
Ran Off BHA 67
BHA Performance 67

I look at the race and see that the BHA performance figure is the same as the Handicap Mark that it ran off and ran right up to its Handicap mark by equaling it with its BHA performance Figure. The BHA handicapper cannot drop or raise its mark

Thats the fun of working this way as you can chose your own Bench Mark Horse and if you were Handicapping the race nothing wrong with you choosing Thunderous Lobe and Come On Eibhlin to rate the race accordingly for your own horses who you think are potentially well in

 

[Outlander]

Hi Outlander

Revised Mark for Sugar Sugar remains the Same 67
Ran Off BHA 67
BHA Performance 67

I look at the race and see that the BHA performance figure is the same as the Handicap Mark that it ran off and ran right up to its Handicap mark by equaling it with its BHA performance Figure. The BHA handicapper cannot drop or raise its mark

Thats the fun of working this way as you can chose your own Bench Mark Horse and if you were Handicapping the race nothing wrong with you choosing Thunderous Lobe and Come On Eibhlin to rate the race accordingly for your own horses who you think are potentially well in

Yes I can see what you are saying, it is strange that the performance figure for Seeing Stars is 1lb below his run off mark , but Sugar Sugars performance figure is equal to his run off mark despite finishing 1/2 length behind that horse.
Yes if we rated the same as BHA there would be no edge, any edge will come from taking a diverse opinion.

 

[Chesham]

Yes I can see what you are saying, it is strange that the performance figure for Seeing Stars is 1lb below his run off mark , but Sugar Sugars performance figure is equal to his run off mark despite finishing 1/2 length behind that horse.
Yes if we rated the same as BHA there would be no edge, any edge will come from taking a diverse opinion.

No problem with your observation and it’s down to choice. I am using additional metrics which is possibly the diverse opinion you mention

“Melissa Honey sat off an 8.1/10 pace, minimized her yardage deficit, and unleashed the highest FSP in the field (100.74%). Generating a 100.4 RSSF proves her engine is operating far beyond Class 5 level, and the BHA left her virtually unpenalized with a new mark of just 58. She is a massive +3.5 lb True Advantage play.”

TheBluesBrother has put Melissa Honey on 63 which is 5Lb higher than the revised mark



There is nothing wrong with your Choice of Benchmark Horse in this race, it’s a personal choice. You may find if you rate the race using your Benchmark that you get a different well in figures for different horse to my assessment.

The main thing is that it gives food for though for anyone looking to find there own well in horses to track

Thanks for your thoughts O Outlander and your opinion is always well respected by myself and others

 

[Chesham]

Many Years ago I purchased a book by Jim Adam’s Sprint Handicapping Explained “

The race numbers correspond to the Raceform Up To Date and covers the 1982 season



Unlike the ambiguity surrounding VDW contribution, he went into great depth covering Sprint Races over a complete season. No need to purchase old Raceform Books ot trips to the National Library. All races are numbers and easy to cross reference .

Example



The 42 is the handicap mark Welwyn Ran off and Jim has given him a 44 . He used Silojoka as the Bench Mark

As Welwyn continues through the season each future race is rated accordingly.

 

[Chesham]

Learn to enjoy your horse racing develop your own opinion and this is just one idea to explore for yourself . You will definitely have different ratings to everyone else , but in line with the BHA Ratings as a comparison for which horses are potentially well in. Of the course the Trainer might not enter the horse in the best race to maximise the well in factor Or the jockey gets the horse in a hopeless position. But one thing is that you have a Starting Rating for the horse and can follow it throughout the season and spot where the odds are well in your favour

Finally I will leave Jim to sum up

 

[nagwa]

Thanks Chesham

 

[gerry]

Here is my thoughts on horse racing and its not done with any great detail just using the mind logic over the facts to a certain degree but i am doing this as i go here so could come out all over the place.
But from what i posted earlier my first thought was its hard to get a winner in any race and here is why, There was old saying i used to hear all the time in the bookies the bigger the field the bigger the cert now obviously what that meant was the short price fav if its 6/4 in a 18 runner race it is more than likely that price for reason so cert where as as a 6/4 in a 5 runner race there is usually a danger then so makes sense when you use the logic.
But that is the thing with horse racing we all see logic all over the place in racing if its fastest time , right ground, track, weight, mark, class. and yes they are all logic and this is where we all get confused with what's best to use so we can fill our boots with all these and we do and yet time and time again we change the structure and yes get some success but not enough as i also said earlier.
I just seen there i think it was a sight we know that there is more handicap races per year now than in 2010 so tougher yet again along with odds cuts this is tough to take.
But here the thing i was thinking earlier well i did say you get crap racing and you get better racing but over commited on weekend days and very little better races week days.
Now the thing is no matter how we try one thing is for cert there is only one winner of a race any race on any day the rest are losing so 10 runners 1 winner and 9 losers, 18 runners 1 winner 17 losers, 6 runners 1 winner 5 losers so that proves with out doubt winners are rare and hard to come by losers are easy.
So if we have lets just say we have 1000 races a year now that could be well out its not the point really and say 10 horses a race thats 10,000 horses in those races and only 1000 winners and 9000 losers and since the fav wins roughly a third of races that is now only say 333 winners and 9,667 losing races who are fav or not so we can now see why its so hard only 3% of favs win from 10,000 horses and only 10% win at all from all.
So that tells me and i am thinking on my feet here well i am not i am actually sitting down so i thinking on my arse actually should tell a lot lol.
That winning races is actually more crucial form than we first thought as only 1000 do it out of every 10000 runners and only 333 do if fav.
I seen it today again race after race horse finishing fast odds on finished second horse leading all the way bar line just beat a nose but all these horses from second to last have one thing in common they didnt win so they go into the group of 9000 or more.
So i so far have two things that beginning to make sense races where there is runners to make sense of field better class but not to cluttered so now the bowers system the guys using makes a little sense get half this field out and winners win races the rest don't as to get into that winning group of horses you have to win a race.
Now we have that were looking at winning form and with more handicaps than ever what stops them is the handicapper hence why there called handicap races so winners when there mark becomes correct again makes sense from my eyes.
Now lets look at vdw with the ability rating divide the runs into wins get rating makes sense but here where my head took me say you have 2 horses both run 10 races and both won 40,000 price money but one horse won 1 race worth 40k the other horse won 4 races all worth 10k so they have same ability rating from 10 races but if i am saying winning is hard i would have the horse in general obviously depending when they win the race in there career with the most wins as every time it won a race it became a serial winner so gets better at winning don't forget most horses are losers.
Also my next thought and as i said all of the top of my arse is that finishing behind a winner is the form as collateral as we really believe like beat a length 3lb other horse beat 3length 9lb are they really both got beat and are in the loser team as racing proves all that matters to us is winning so jockeys trainers know this so are you not as well getting beat 5 lengths as 1 length for other day which means pound pre length is clearly not right.
So is it possible and as i said just thinking as i go were looking for consistent races good races with good horses but not to congested, good consistent horses maybe even first two places is all that count as consistent, and most important good consistent winners who get back to winning mark they have a edge there in the top 10 % of all runners.
You think any other sport the top players rise to the top and stay there but they don't get handicapped for doing so horses do making it even tougher for them to be winners does that mean none winners join the winners list because of this or is there always a winner in a race of the right mark so he or her is taking this i don't know yet.
Young horses will come and join the the winner list as a new season comes every year and make sure horses who are older need move a side and serial losers will plod on losing where they belong but in general backing winners is hard we all know this so what are we looking for right now i am thinking we are looking for winners in a race and young improving horses who really are improving and wait till they have at least joined the winning list because up to then there either losers or joining you soon enough.

 

[Chesham]

Hi gerry

Why not approach it an other way . Instead of trying to predict the winner of a race, work on try to accurately as you can, assess the true probability of a horse winning

Imagine that you have a super computer that always gets the probabilities of each winning correct and never gets the probability wrong

In any race the probabilities of all the horses added up will = 100% (Something has to win)

Now imagine that shortest price in your runners = 9/2. You know that the probability is accurate.

would you back the horse if the best odds that you could find were 7/2

An accurate 9/2 horse will win 18.18% of the time and lose 81.82% of the time. [1]

Breakdown of the Math
Fractional odds represent the ratio of losses to wins. In 9/2 odds, the horse is expected to lose 9 times for every 2 times it wins. [1, 2]

• • Total Outcomes: 11 (9 losses + 2 wins)
  • Win Chance: 2 out of 11 (\(\approx \) 18.18%)
  • Loss Chance: 9 out of 11 (\(\approx \) 81.82%) [1, 2]

Expected Results Over 100 Races
If you ran this exact race 100 times, you would expect the following results:

• • Wins: 18 times
  • Losses: 82 times

gerry, the point is that even if you could accurately predict all the probabilities of each horses winning in a race, you would in the long term lose money if you backed any at odds shorter than their true probability of winning

I think most are confused with strike rates and not probability . With one hundred bets at 9/2 true probability you would have a strike rate of around 18% 88 of your bets would lose .

But if the average odds that you backed were always 6/1

• The Market Thinks: A 6/1 horse has a 14.29% chance to win.
• You Know: The horse actually has an 18.18% chance to win.
  \

Your profit would be 27 points profit on 100 bets

Perhaps a different approach would be to work on predicting the true odds as opposed to trying to find the winner

 

[gerry]

Cheers Chesham that was actually my next part of my logic of horses winning and the odds which i did say are corroded with bookmakers odds so no matter what we do we have some how to find value which means we cant always bet the horse we think will win the race we have to build a system where we know winners will come from but that's where the handicaps and past winners come in they might not have recent form so the odds be better and were looking for winners who are now running in race they can bounce back and win or have been laid out to have chance in this race, So odds are the next step in those right races have to be right to be worth while.
But thanks for giving me ideas as your trying to help a lot i see that and am greatfull for feed back you give for sure and more people should be also.

 

[JennyK]

As commonly with higher class handicaps, the field for the 1.55 York today includes runners with overseas wins, so I have had to amend several of the ability ratings generated by my UK/higher value Irish database. According to the Post's database, the ability ratings are:

West Acre 686
Candy 355
Dubai Bling 338
Stormy Impact 294
Apollo One 238
Against The Wind 219
Stratusnine 211
Trefor 211
Dark Thirty 147
Toca Madera 145
Spartan Arrow 133
Toyotomi 127
Erosandpsyche 120
Lexington Blitz 117
Naanas Sparkle 112
Corolla Point 99
The Man 97
Another Baar 93
Air Force One 89
Ziggys Triton 82
Dapper Valley 58
Gold Star Hero 51

 

[Chesham]

As commonly with higher class handicaps, the field for the 1.55 York today includes runners with overseas wins, so I have had to amend several of the ability ratings generated by my UK/higher value Irish database. According to the Post's database, the ability ratings are:

West Acre 686
Candy 355
Dubai Bling 338
Stormy Impact 294
Apollo One 238
Against The Wind 219
Stratusnine 211
Trefor 211
Dark Thirty 147
Toca Madera 145
Spartan Arrow 133
Toyotomi 127
Erosandpsyche 120
Lexington Blitz 117
Naanas Sparkle 112
Corolla Point 99
The Man 97
Another Baar 93
Air Force One 89
Ziggys Triton 82
Dapper Valley 58
Gold Star Hero 51

Two from your list are in the top 4 ranked on your Ability list


The Top 5 on Ability have performed quite well in past runnings of this race

Results for Chesham Speed Ratings

 

[Chesham]

Chez Extra are a combination of Speed and Ability

 

[Chesham]

The ones Marked MyTF are in my Tracker

 

[JennyK]

With a race like the 1.50, I've found that in addition to the "exposed form" as VDW referred to it, one has to look for "less obvious form", which was indeed the subject of the first thread I started on the forum where mick's examples and comments were particularly helpful. Those plus further work on the VDW ones and I feel a bit better equipped than back then, but it is still rather a speculative area.

In the 1.50, working down the ability rating ranking, the first horse with "exposed form", ie what VDW mostly referred to as a "form" horse, is Stratusnine (7th rated, coincidentally the same as VDW's first ever example, so not unacceptable because of his rank position). Working on down, the next is Toca Madera, and below him quite a large number of "form" horses in the bottom half of the ranking.

Then "less obvious" form. One strand of the bundle of situations which for me equals possible "less obvious" form is where, though not a "form" horse by the usual "exposed form" method of rating, a horse won the equivalent race last year and with Trefor we have an example. And quite a good one, because he comes into today's race from this year's equivalent of the same race he came from last year. Second to Trefor in the 2025 running was The Man, who was 4th in the betting that day and presumably fancied by connections. Maybe he too, like Trefor not a "form" horse on "exposed form", should be regarded as having "exposed form" too; not so sure as with Trefor.

Promoting them both to "form" horse status, the top rankings of "form" horses by ability is:

Stratusnine and Trefor, both 211
Toca Madera 145

and if I were going to have a bet, I would not be looking below them in the ability-rating ranking.

Taking the two with "exposed form" first, ie the usual VDW "form" horse types, both Stratusnine and Toca Madera come up short, for precisely the same reason. Both are coming into today's race from the much higher class Goodwood Stewards Cup (class 1288 cf today's 696, also reflected in average ORs, 100.6 cf 95.1). With such horses, VDW always looked at the key horse form, in this case Evening Saigon. ES was not among the favourites for the Stewards and in his previous race, admittedly classier than today's, he had come 7th when 12th in the betting. Plainly, having run well in the Stewards, it would be no surprise should either Statusnine or Toca Madera win today. They and several others come into today's race from the Stewards and no other runners' last races come close to that in class terms. Of the two, Stratusnine is the younger horse, higher in the ability rating ranking and a "consistent form" horse, while Toca Madera is a "form" horse but not a consistent one. Difficult to be sure who will win their "match" but easy enough to know that neither is the full deal in VDW terms, for the lack-of-key-horse-form support reason.

That leaves Trefor, in my view a "form" horse on "less obvious" form. Impossible for an outsider to know connections' thinking, but given his lto OR, 91, I think they would have been reasonably confident he would get into today's race off that. Therefore he did not have to win lto to get into today's race. The prize lto was £40,000 compared with today's nearly £70,000, so a lot less but well worth winning. I therefore think today's race is of course one connections would like to win, but is not their main target for the year; as a consequence of picking up the £40,000 he carries an extra 5lb today, which makes the win today less likely.

Can Trefor win off 95? Not impossible, but my performance ratings don't have him as progressive, yet, this year. He has run in three classy handicaps since winning last year's equivalent of today's, and was well beaten each time off 98, 96 and 94, needing to drop to 91 before winning again. So, on the evidence I think he is running off too high an OR today to make him the likely winner.

With joint VDW class/form horses in Stratusnine and Trefor, I certainly would not want to bet against one of them winning, but for the reasons given I won't be backing either or both as a book.

Apart from the joint class/form horses and the lower ability-rated Toca Madera, who as noted suffers from the same lack of key horse form support as Stratusnine, the other horse that catches the eye from a VDW point of view is Corolla Point. Of the eight VDW "form" horses in the field on the usual exposed form status rating method, he and the much lower rated Dapper Valley are the only ones with entirely acceptable form profiles - "both consistent form horses". But of course both are far too low down the ability rating ranking, given the presence of higher ability-rated "form" horses, to be considered for betting purposes from a VDW perspective.

 

[Kraldrew]

1350 Yolrk
1 Stratusnine Abilty 74
2 Dubai Bling Ability 73
3 Lexington Blitz Ability 71
4 Erosandpsyche Ability 70

Stratusnine for me

 

[gerry]

Here is my take on the horses today from a complete new thought of what i have already said earlier.
Thinking that winners are winners and the rest are not.
When we go to york the first thing instantly is omg all the big fields so these go to the good races cluttered group but lets have a look just the same from my thoughts.

When i looked at the 1 50 YORK it is mine field but just the same the obvious answer is the draw going to make big difference today and answer is no one knows quiet yet so there the first query.
Any way when i looked down the field 4 horses to me looked like a chance not using big chance for obvious reasons in race they where TOCA MADERA, THE MAN,STRATUSNINE, TREFORE.
two drawn high two drawn low so that could be good mix each side of draw first thing i done was looked at TOCA MADERA and thought its winning form was a little below the winning class and likely find one two good and does not have more to add so its out, then i looked at THE MAN just beat last year by TREFOR and down 3lb now that alone gives it serious chance but winning form below it but has beating of TREFOR on it and as second thats form stuck up for me third it would not have so i cant think its out of this there drawn opposite sides where as close together last year on form THE MAN has edge but what will draw do we dont know. TREFOR is serial winner so cant be say no chance.
Finally i have STRATUSNINE this horse is serial winner and here to and last time showed better than ever also high draw but only 4 and showing this is a horse who does not go away so this was the horse i cant get out of head in the race and could run well but i think these 4 are winners in a race wither winners in this race i dont know as its a cluttered race.

Going to the 3 00 YORK this race if i am right of course i found a lot more straight forward CHRISTMAS DAY has already showed its serious horse winning derby and you just cant go against it and could be a sign of how series winners show up time after time.

The 3 35 YORK we are in the same no a bigger level of serial winner horse in OMBUDSMAN this horse is at level few reach and till CONSTITUSION RIVER proves other wise you cant not bet OMBUDSMAN bow people will say short odds but they are correct it is good odds it has one horse to beat which at the time of play is better horse and should be slightly odds on the other horse is improving and serial winner but now its up to a test and will need be really special to over come OMBUDSMAN.

In the 4 10 YORK i think SMALL FRY who is serial winner showed in only second run it has come on even more this year and is ready to run massive race here at first i thought will take a lot of beating in fact i still do.
Then i seen SHRIMP SHADY knows how to win and not a lot to find on book and the more crucial thing is the distance has proved at it and i think what me and Chesham
where talking about earlier this is where the odds could make difference in a bet and this one just might be the value of this race i think it is.

Jumping along to the 4 45 YORK this race looks between the two who finished close together round here SCHRODINGERS CAT and NAANAS SHADOW now its interesting for my thoughts we have a horse in SCHRODINGERS CAT 13lb better of for head and on first looks must be a bet but in NAANAS SHADOW we have serial winner against a horse who won one handicap and novice and some thing tells me it wont be as easy as first thought to reverse it interesting race and with 19 runners surprising maybe just maybe its not as cluttered as first thought but still cluster race on runners.

In the 5 20 YORK first instinct is 2yold so move on but i looked and here my thoughts i first thought that DUBAI CHAMPION is a winner and proved in top race running second which i still rate horses second to be on the up and could like most improve more, The only other runner i seen showing up is already a serial winner winning last three and HAVANA SPRITE just cant be ruled out this race last two wins at newmarket ans only up 4lb this horse might just be improving at rate of knots to be big danger.

Jumping to carlisle and the brain can rest a little from cluttered races at york and in the 4 20 CARLISLE GOLDEN STRIKE winning at york in decent race it is serial winner has only couple pounds to find the only horse i could see as possible worry was COUNT PALLATINE knows how to win and won round here 4lb to find but has won from only 1lb lower so has it in there to run well and be danger.

Still at carlisle in the 5 30 CARLISLE it surprised me alittle i only had one horse for this race as could not find a likely other horse and its all to do with BARLEY two things it can win but seems to not want to maybe as much as it could but is thrown in here if it turns up it simply wins the where encouragement from round this mark this year and knows track well make no mistake about it the stable will be trying with this one today.

What am i doing at all weather well im just looking and in the 7 30 KEMPTON my first eraction was won last two knows how to win VICTORY ACE stands out as alone horse who must go well and i still believe it will go well then i noticed DARN HOT GALLOP has won three from seven and one a decent race at newmarket and this being just 3yold race this horse could be showing it knows more than most and at odds back to value racing big danger.

In the 8 00 KEMPTON this is a clutter race even to the point i am going to mention three horses here first one STARLIGHT TIME has won twice a decent race at chelmsford to but they where not handicaps so although double winner this could be different but worth mention too. Then RACINGBREAKS RYDER this horse is really a serial winner and was better than these few years back but ahs won alst two and proved before can keep winning would be foolish to say it cant again in this, Finally ELAN D'OR won a couple as 2yold ok some time doesnt go on from that btu looks like only other horse thats could trouble the other two and as tight race could be dangerous so thats why three.

In the 8 30 KEMPTON this is similar to one earlier that only one pick and its up to the horse really but TALIS EVOLVERE was serial winner couple years back but did win one this year at southwell showing something is in there and if it produces it wins this the mark is fine and really up to horse but only one for me here.

In the 9 00 KEMPTON this race could be near a maiden the form so poor so the win from OBSIDIAN VERSE could count for a lot late on here back down aa pound and only 2 lb to find but in this wining could be everything.