• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

CHELTENHAM 2025

TRANSMISSION 5/1 5.20, Held up when 2nd to HAITI COULEURS he did no more than stay on steadily to finish 2.75L behind at the line, he's 4lb better off here and another 4f to travel.
Both horses have run over hurdles since which i'm guessing is about saving marks in what looks a tough race.
 
"Please list any horses with bigger odds you fancy, interested see who people fancy (no short priced favourites)..."

In the 4.40 Cheltenham Wednesday the top rated on VDW's ability ratings are, in my view, not form horses. The highest rated one who is a form horse, The King Of Prs, is only 7th in the ranking (entirely coincidentally, like VDW's first ever, Prominent King). So in my view The King Of Prs is the VDW class/form horse.

With six higher ability rated horses in the field (and others not far behind), it is difficult to be over-excited, but The King Of Prs comes out second best in among the field on my performance ratings for last runs (only Traprain Law coming out marginally better), and seems okay on the usual conditions. He doesn't come out very well on TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother's sfs, though.

The King Of Prs is not much of a price, only around 8/1, so no chance of the 7-to-place bet I've had on Victtorio today. Nevertheless, just about worth a dabble.
 
Cheltenham 2025 -Day 1. Consensus of 4 top rating sources best-in on a 3-2-1 basis. Mkt odds from 9.35am.

1.20 Kopek Des Bordes (1/1) - Rmeo Coolio 15/2, William Munny 17/2
2.00 Majborough (1/2) - L'Eau Du Sud 5/1
2.40 Katate Dori (8/1) - Whistle Stop Tour 12/1, Guard You Dreams 66/1
3.20 Lossimouth (8/11) - Jade De Grugy 11/2
4.00 Constitution Hill (4/6) - Brighterdayahead 15/8, State Man 12/1
4.40 Pu6tyourhandstogether (15/2) - Stencil 7/2, Total Look 9/2
4.40 Haiti Couleurs (4/1) - Transmission 9/2, Resplendent Grey 8/1
 
It's the final countdown, I'm leaving work at 12:00.

I've got 13 pages of bets on, 10 per page, that's 130 bets, it might be overkill and I'm still trying to put a load of acca's on across the whole 4 days, but day 3 has disappeared from SkyBet right now, I will have to wait and hope it comes back before the off so I can get my 4 day acca's on.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL, HOPE YOU WIN BIG!
 
rbtblb82 said:
It's the final countdown, I'm leaving work at 12:00.

I've got 13 pages of bets on, 10 per page, that's 130 bets, it might be overkill and I'm still trying to put a load of acca's on across the whole 4 days, but day 3 has disappeared from SkyBet right now, I will have to wait and hope it comes back before the off so I can get my 4 day acca's on.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL, HOPE YOU WIN BIG!
Click to expand...
1741691467138.png
 
Oh aye, it's bingo/roulette time, especially the Ultima, Fred Winter and National Hunt. That's why I've got so many acca's on, I'm trying to hit all seven - I've always wanted to hit all 7 in one day, even if the odds are naff and the return isn't that big, I just want to see 7 wins on my bet slip.
 

Key Trends & Insights​

1. Top Factors Influencing Success Rates​

  • H-Places (Track/NH Code) (2-500): The highest success rate (40%) and a strong advantage (38). This suggests horses with multiple places at a specific track or within the National Hunt (NH) code tend to perform well.
  • H-Places (Track) (2-500) – 33.33% SR: Track-specific placement history is significant.
  • H-Places (Hcap NH) (5-500) – 29.41% SR: Handicap National Hunt horses with strong placement records show notable success.
  • H-Run (Track/NH Code) (2-500) – 22.22% SR: Run frequency in a particular track/NH code also plays a role.
  • Pos OR (9-0) (22-22) – 20.83% SR: Positional Official Ratings within this range impact performance.
  • Jockey Win % (Short & Long-term impact):
    • J-Win% (2 Years) (30-100) – 18.18% SR
    • J-Win% (1 Year) (30-100) – 17.39% SR
    • J-Win% (3 Days) (30-100) – 14.29% SR
    • J-Win% (7 Days) (30-100) – 18.18% SR
    • Strong performances in short-term and long-term spans indicate jockey ability is crucial.

2. Strong Contenders Based on Trend Matches​

Top Performers (Multiple Strong Factors)​

  1. Transmission (IRE)
    • ✅ Matches in 6 strong factors (#1, #2, #4, #6, #7, #9).
    • Advantage: Strong history at the track, consistent performances, and a competent jockey.
    • High Success Probability.
  2. Resplendent Grey (IRE)
    • ✅ Matches in 5 factors (#4, #12, #16, #22, #23).
    • Advantage: Good class and distance move, recent form, and jockey impact.
    • Moderate-High Success Probability.
  3. Haiti Couleurs (FR)
    • ✅ Matches in 5 factors (#9, #10, #13, #15, #24).
    • Advantage: Competitive at track and NH code, with weight and class considerations favoring performance.
    • Moderate-High Success Probability.

3. Horses with Moderate Potential​

  • Rock My Way (IRE) (✅ in 4 factors)
  • Gericault Roque (FR) (✅ in 4 factors)
  • Duffle Coat (IRE) (✅ in 3 factors)
  • Now Is The Hour (IRE) (✅ in 2 factors)
These horses show potential but lack broader trend alignment.

4. Weakest Contenders​

  • Hasthing (FR) (No matches ❌)
  • Jupiter Allen (FR) (1 match only)
  • Kyntara (1 match only)
  • No Time To Wait (IRE) (1 match only)
These horses lack strong trend backing and may struggle in competitive scenarios.

Final Thoughts​

  • Transmission (IRE) emerges as the strongest contender based on trend alignment.
  • Resplendent Grey (IRE) & Haiti Couleurs (FR) also have solid trend backing.
  • Horses with fewer trend matches are less likely to perform well unless external conditions favor them.
 
gerry said:
I like that Gericault Rogue got mention Chesham Chesham gives me hope.
Click to expand...
I hope that you collect gerry gerry as it it was a EW type last night (separate to win bets analysis)

Top Each-Way Bets (5-6 places)​

RaceHorseOddsWhy it’s a good EW bet?
2.40 UltimaHappygolucky28/1Strong festival form, 7lb well-in
2.40 UltimaCrebilly9/1Well-handicapped, Cheltenham suited
4.50 Fred WinterHot Fuss10/1UK form underestimated
4.50 Fred WinterTotal Look15/2Strong finisher, first-time cheekpieces
5.20 NH ChaseGericault Roque9/18lb below his best handicap mark

​

 
I felt the ground was better than good to soft yesterday though didn't hear any comments on itv, still saying good to soft for today.
 
Just kidding, but only got £41 left, plus still got 8 pages of bets on, although, nothing flash and most of my big acca's have been devastated.

OMG what a shocker the Champion Hurdle was, I did actually have Golden Ace in two bets, but I need The Yellow Clay, Energumene, Better Days Ahead or Solness to hit a nice double, or if more than one of those wins, multiple nice doubles, fingers crossed.

Otherwise, acca after acca went down with the Champion Hurdle. Majborough had already ruined a fair few for me, and should have won really, awful ride from Mark Walsh, but I could have taken that if Constitution Hill, Brighterdaysahead or State Man had won the Champion Hurdle, I'd still have loads of big acca's going, never mind eh.
 
rbtblb82 said:
Just kidding, but only got £41 left, plus still got 8 pages of bets on, although, nothing flash and most of my big acca's have been devastated.

OMG what a shocker the Champion Hurdle was, I did actually have Golden Ace in two bets, but I need The Yellow Clay, Energumene, Better Days Ahead or Solness to hit a nice double, or if more than one of those wins, multiple nice doubles, fingers crossed.

Otherwise, acca after acca went down with the Champion Hurdle. Majborough had already ruined a fair few for me, and should have won really, awful ride from Mark Walsh, but I could have taken that if Constitution Hill, Brighterdaysahead or State Man had won the Champion Hurdle, I'd still have loads of big acca's going, never mind eh.
Click to expand...

A few less chips on the table.....

Tuesday to Friday
1741775003590.jpeg
 
Couple of decent wins in the last two yesterday
:)
. Selections from a consensus of 4 respected sources.

Cheltenham 2025 - Day 2. (GS with G places Xcountry) Mkt odds from 9.30am.

1.20 Final Demand 6/4 mkt - The Yellow Clay 5/1, The New Lion 5/2
2.00 Ballyurn 4/6 - Dancing City 7/1, Better dDys Ahead 10/1, Stellar Story 18/1
2.40 Be Aware 4/1 - Impose Toi 13/2, Jimmy Du Seuil 14/1
3.20 Galvin 7/2 - Stumptown 3/1, Vanillier 8/1, Iwilldoit 22/1
4.00 Jonbonn 10/11 - Energumene 15/2, Solness 9/1, Captain Guiness 25/1
4.40 Unexpected Party 11/2 - Dancing On My Own 20/1, Jazzy Matty 7/1, My Mate Mozzie 15/2, Fringill Dyke 66/1
5.20 Bambino Fever 9/2 - Game Of Finches 9/2, Copabcabana 9/2, Kalypso'chance 11/2
 
Ha, love the Ian Beale memes, that's a running joke in our house.

I might just go for big odds in the handicaps since we've had a bit of snow, could be testy, and might just throw up a few surprises. SkyBet has 8 places for the Coral Cup.

For the Coral Cup, I'm thinking Beckett Rock could be a decent bet @ 25/1, Bromhead not firing yet but usually hits at the festival, and this horse beat the W P Mullins horse (Bunting) at Clonmel 8 weeks ago, Bunting is 8/1 and Beckett Rock is 25/1, surely that's the wrong way around.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top