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    AR

CHELTENHAM 2025

Agreed, and a fair few of these will only have 4/5/6 runners, not very competitive at all, it's all about the handicaps this year I think.

I will put a few bets like the above on, just in case the favourites hit, but most of my bets will be taking a bunch of these on.

I think Majborough will win, and Constitution Hill, I also fancy Jonbon, even though he prefers other tracks, and I'd love to see Galopin Des Champs emulate Best Mate and Arkle, it a tough ask but not many in the race that can beat him really. Looking at the Stayers, Teahupoo might just win that as well, it's pretty weak this year, the rest I think could get turned over, but I won't be rushing to back any of them at these prices.
 
Brighterdaysahead declared for the Champion Hurdle, taking Constitution Hill on, nice one, makes it a better race.
 
rbtblb82 said:
BANKER or BUST?

13:20 – Supreme Novices Hurdle – Kopek Des Bordes 4/5
14:00 – Arkle – Majborough 4/7
15:20 – Mares Hurdle – Brighterdaysahead 4/7
16:00 – Champion Hurdle - Constitution Hill 4/6

13:20 – Turners Novices Hurdle – Final Demand 7/4
14:00 – Brown Advisory Novice Chase – Ballyburn 6/4
16:00 – Queen Mother Champion Chase – Jonbon 5/6

15:20 – Ryanair Chase – Facto To File 6/4
16:00 – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle – Teahupoo 5/6

13:20 – Triumph Hurdle – Lulamba 15/8 or East India Dock 15/8
14:40 – Mares Chase – Dinoblue 11/8
16:00 – Gold Cup – Galopin Des Champs 2/5

Do you think these festival favourites are bankers, or bet busters?
£1.00 WIN 12-Fold = £4,091.06
Click to expand...
As the betting stands now there isn't a single banker i would consider backing, obviously the champ hdl has become more complicated but my overall view is that we will see a few drifts with these at least on the morning of the races.
 
PUNTS / HORSES AT BIGGER ODDS

Please list any horses with bigger odds you fancy, interested see who people fancy (no short priced favourites)...

Tuesday

13:20 - Supreme - William Munny 10/1
14:40 - Ultima - Katate Dori 8/1
15:30 - Mares Hurdle - Golden Ace 13/2
16:40 - Fred Winter - Liam Swagger 14/1

Wednesday

13:20 - Turners - James's Gate 8/1
14:00 - Brown Advisory - Croke Park 9/1
14:40 - Coral Cup - Altobelli 10/1
16:00 - Champion Chase - Solness 7/1
16:40 - Grand Annual - Liberty Hunter 8/1
17:20 - Champion Bumper - Bambino Fever 7/1

Thursday

14:00 - Jack Richards Novices Handicap Chase - Nurburgring 7/1
14:40 - Pertemps - Zain Knights 25/1
15:20 - Ryanair - Djelo 12/1
16:00 - Stayers - July Flower 16/1

Friday

14:40 - Mares Chase - Bioluminescence 13/2 or Telepathique 9/1
15:20 - Albert Bartlett - Jax Junior 16/1

EDIT: Hewick out of the Gold Cup, he's going to Aintree (Grand National)
 
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Owner & Trainer Doubles/Trixies etc.

Bronsan Racing
Wednesday @ 16:00 - Queen Mother Champion Chase - Solness 7/1
Thursday @ 14:00 - Jack Richards Novices Handicap Chase - Nurburgring 7/1
£1 E/W double = £69.76

Gigginstown Stud
Too many to list really, but they have Brighterdaysahead, Croke Park, King of Kingsfield, Blue De Vassy, Quai Du Bourbon, Conflated, Harsh, Will Do, Cleatus Poolaw, Coko Beach, Staffordshire Knot and many more

Lucy Wadham
Thursday @ 14:40 - Pertemps - Zain Knights 25/1
Friday @ 14:40 - Mares Chase - Telepathique 9/1
Friday @ 15:20 - Albert Bartlett - Jax Junior 16/1
£1 E/W Trixie = £5,416.32

Barry Connell
Tuesday @ 13:20 - Supreme - William Munny 10/1
Wednesday @ 16:00 - Champion Chase - Marine Nationale 6/1
 
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I can't wait now, I only really take time off work for festivals, I don't really go on holiday these days, festivals are my holidays so I'm looking forward to it.

Also, I usually always lose before Cheltenham and reduce my stake money, but this year, I'm up, only £29 over the last week, but it's better than being down and gives me a bit more to play with than I'd planned.

Hopefully I can finally hit all 7 in one day, I'd love to do that but it's bloomin hard.
 
I did fancy William Munny for the Supreme, well, still do, will definitely be having it in an E/W double with Marine Nationale, but now I think I fancy Workahead... William Munny is a clear 2nd in this race...


Impressive jumping, good speed!
 
Best thing about Festival week is Sedgefield on Tuesday and Hexham on Thursday.

Below is the list of winners from the Deloitte Novices Hurdle. Mullins has famed that race since 2013.
1741351659934.png

Ballyburn won the 21f Baring Bingham at the Festival @10/11. The second in the Deloitte was Slade Steel who won the Supreme at 12/1.
Il Etait Temps finished fifth in the Supreme @4/1, the second in the Deloitte, Inthepocket, finished fourth in the Supreme @9/1.
Sir Gerhard won won 21f Baring Bingham at the Festival @8/11, the second in the Delloite, Three Stripe Life finished runner up to Sir Gerhard at 8/1.
Appreciate It won the Supreme @8/11, the second in the Deloitte, Ballyadam, was second to Appreciate It at Cheltenham @6/1.
Asterion Forlonge was 9/4f and finished fourth in the Supreme. Easywork was second in the Deloitte and finished second in the Baring Bingham at 12/1.
Klassical Dream won the Supreme @6/1, second in the Deloitte, Aramon finished sixth in the Supreme, both Mullins horses.
Bacardys pulled up in the Supreme @4/1, second in the Deloitte was 12th in the Supreme, both Mullins
Bleu Et Rouge fell in the Albert Bartlett, the second in the Deloitte was Tombstone who was fourth at 12/1 in the Supreme.
Nichols Canyon was third in the Baring Bingham at 7/2, second in the Deloitte was Windsor Park who won the Baring Bingham at 9/2
Vautour won the Supreme @7/2, the second didn't run again that season
Champagne Fever won the Supreme @5/1, the second by passed Cheltenham.

So Mullins winners of the Deloitte that run in the Supreme have returned WWPW5

Karniquet who finished second to Kopek Des Bordes in the Deloitte, is currently 50/1 for the Supreme but is only 12/1 for the County Hurdle. He looks worth an interest in the County if he goes there.
 
Ha, yeh, I've said similar a few times previously e.g. I said last year at one point - damn, if I hadn't bet at Cheltenham and had focussed on the other meetings I would have smashed it today!

I'll probably have a few bets at other meets, but it will be mostly Cheltenham for me, I like the big fields (in the handicaps) and extra places, and there's usually some decent odds horses that come in, plus I'm trying to hit all 7 winners in one day (6 out of 7 would be good enough), I might do it one day, probably when I'm only a few years from the grave and can't spend it.

EDIT: The Supreme actually looks like one of the best races of the festival I think, Tripoli Flyer 16/1 could have a chance too.
 
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More Punts

  • Grand Annual - Dr T J Eckleburg 33/1 or Martator 40/1
  • Arkle - Touch Me Not 40/1
  • Fred Winter - Torrent 25/1
 
I got suckered in Saturday, not a bad day of racing, I was well down at one point but got lucky towards the end of the day, finished £6 down so still enough for a decent bet at Cheltenham.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL - HOPE YOU ENJOY THE FESTIVAL AND WIN A FEW QUID.
 
Cheers - Fergal O'Brien and Lucy Wadham have never had a win at the festival, so I'm going to back both, it would be nice for both to get a win, and both have a few decent chances (Fergal 5 or 6, Wadham 3).

The question is, to bet today or not to bet today? If I bet today, I will lose and be annoyed tomorrow, but if I don't, what I've picked today will probably come in and I could have won more to bet with tomorrow, but I think I'll leave it and not take the risk, except, Gary Moore has 9 horses today so I might just play trebles for Gary Moore today and leave the rest for tomorrow.

Don't forget to take your free bets!

I've got £5 off Betfair, £5 off William Hill, £10 off SkyBet, nothing from Coral or Bet365, tight buggers, but they do have some offers on.
 
The ones I'm having a look at are those I highlighted in green but have no more than 3 runners at the meeting
 
Yeh I'd agree with those, I'd just add J Tizzard as he has a few decent chances (The Changing Man for example). And I've got to have Venetia Williams in my trainers list as she's done well for me the last few years, plus Fergal O'Brien trying to break his duck.

I'll look out for J P O'Brien as he's had some good form on the jumps over the last 18 months.
Plus other form trainers like James Owen (has East India Dock, Liam Swagger, Burdett Road), Warren Greatrex (Quantock Hills and Herakles Westwood, last two races day 1), and Phillip Hobbs & Johnson White.

I actually quite like the Warren Greatrex double...

  • Cheltenham @ 16:40 - Quantock Hills 18/1
  • Cheltenham @ 17:20 - Herakles Westwood 20/1

£1 E/W double = £422.00
 
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I am just going through the whole cheltenham week and picking out ones i think have a chance at decent odds and you mentioned j owen there R rbtblb82 and as you did i have just wrote one of his down on my pad so i suppose should mention it to you ONE BIG BANG in the pertempts on thursday.
I will be giving them all up on my horse with chance forum when finished.
 
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Cheers Gerry, I do have that covered already - as I've said before, I'm a sucker for trainer combo's, and owner combo's, so James Owen fits in perfectly for me, all same owner/shirt (The Gredley Family)....

James Owen

  • 11/03/25 @ 16:00 - Burdett Road 33/1
  • 11/03/25 @ 16:40 - Liam Swagger 16/1 and Lavender Hill Mob 33/1
  • 13/03/25 @ 14:40 - One Big Bang 16/1
  • 13/03/25 @ 17:20 - Grozni 50/1
  • 14/03/25 @ 13:20 - East India Dock 7/4 or Opec 100/1

I'm not going to any work done today at all! I should have booked the whole week off, I can't think about anything else today. Good job I've already seen all the preview shows.
 
"Please list any horses with bigger odds you fancy, interested see who people fancy (no short priced favourites)..."

In the 2.40 Tuesday I make Victtorino the VDW class/form horse, currently 20/1+, a touch ahead on the basic VDW ability rating of The Changing Man with those two some way clear of the 3rd, Katate Dori. Both the latter two are among the favourites at around 7/1, so for me the interesting question is why is Victtorino such a high price.

He is carrying significantly more weight than the other two, but that means the Official Handicapper rates him the best of the three, as he is on my performance ratings and, I think, on TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother's sfs.

On my usual criteria for the flat, ie distance, going, course type and weight, Victtorino looks okay, but the Post comment describes him as an Ascot specialist who "has struggled here [Cheltenham] previously". On my crude way of assessing courses, both Ascot and Cheltenham come into the stiff category and I don't know enough about the nh to have any sense of whether horses often run better at one than the other.

Having looked at Victtorino's career, he seems to have run twice at Cheltenham, in January last year when "the trainer's representative could offer no explanation for the poor form shown", and in last year's version of tomorrow's race where he pulled up 4 out on heavy going, to date his one and only run on that going in the UK.

If this were a sprint handicap, two failures like that wouldn't overly concern me provided the horse had run well on another course in the same category and on similar going to tomorrow's, but maybe there is something about Cheltenham that makes backers think it won't suit Victtorino.

Anyway, given that for me Victtorino is the VDW class/form horse, does well on my performance measures (including the mean and median of his performances) and is such a big price, I will have a dabble, ew with as many places as I can get that pays 2.1 or better and thus covers the win element, but certainly not more than a dabble.
 
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Thanks Jenny, nice analysis - I've got Victtorino in my Venetia Williams bet, and in my outsiders E/W doubles bet for the 1st day, hopefully you're right.
 
Don't forget to take your free bets!

I've got £5 off Betfair, £5 off William Hill, £10 off SkyBet, nothing from Coral or Bet365, tight buggers, but they do have some offers on.

Further to this one, I forgot, I've also got a £5 free bet from PaddyPower - might as well use them all.
 
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