BTTS - test system

[paulb164]

With the current games not being really consistent enough to bet on with any confidence (at least for me anyway), I have resorted to just betting on goals for the time being. This has left a bit of a hole in my betting practices, so I have decided to trial an idea I have had for quite a while, but not really had the time to explore. I was also dubious to use any system on any or the current leagues that have had a covid break and were at the tail end of their respective seasons, but with the Nordic ones just starting it seemed a good time to start looking into it.
It's based on the 'both teams to score' market with the expectation that they will each score... something that has always appealed to me with starting odds of around 1.9+. As I have a lot of comprehensive football plans based on goal expectations, I should exploit that to this end, but as usual I want to initially make it as simple as possible (so my Excel file can manage it all without issues and just tell me what games to bet on !) and tweak along the way. I also plan to use some market data to help pick likely qualifiers... prudent or not time will tell.
So my initial idea will use the following starting parameters;
- all games must have played at least 20% of their season
- those leagues need to have started and not be affected by the covid break (Nordic leagues are perfect at the moment)
- league goal average per game must be 2.6+
- both home and away teams must have starting match odds of 2.0+
- Soccervista has the game expectation to be over 2.5 goals
- using Betfair odds

I'll add more leagues as I go if they are good candidates, but don't expect to see any for a while (perhaps some of the South American leagues if they start up)

 

[paulb164]

So, on with this week's qualifiers;

 

[paulb164]

LOL - so much for my belief that odds would be around 1.9... the above games are nearer 1.7 ! It'll be worth monitoring the odds movement in-play... maybe that will offer me a more profitable angle, and also to see how the market reacts as the game unfolds and goals are scored.

 

[retriever]

Yes, it may be worth waiting 10 minutes into the game to place the bet. If there is an earlier goal then just void the game and not bet. The problem then is monitoring all the games and record keeping.

 

[paulb164]

Yes, it may be worth waiting 10 minutes into the game to place the bet. If there is an earlier goal then just void the game and not bet. The problem then is monitoring all the games and record keeping.

I think you're right - I am monitoring a Danish div 1 game at the moment that if it wasn't just 2 games from end of season would have qualified for this trial... you can see how the odds changed over the course of the game so far;



They slowly dropped over the 30 mins up to kick-off with a quick hike and up-and-down movement just before and a minute or so after. Then it remained quite static until a goal at 11 mins (obvious from the immediate drop in odds). It didn't take long to recover to almost the same match starting odds though. Interesting dynamic - can't be sure if this is a typical odds movement for this market without checking a few others out, but first indications might be to put the bet on after about a minute or two.
I'll be betting £2 on my picks, with bets going in at 1 min into the game and will see what the markets have in store for the plan.

 

[paulb164]

Another qualifier if discounting the covid break parameter would be the Barnsley v Wigan game kicking off in 50 mins... this is their odds movement over the last 5 mins (currently 1.86);



Will be interesting to see how this moves all the way up to the first goal if there is one.

 

[retriever]

It also begs the question of cashing out 'greening up' after the 1st goal and waiting to re-enter at a higher price. The matches you will be selecting ie./ both teams above 2.0 may be ok for this. Matches that are low scoring and taken to be 1-1 affairs.

 

[paulb164]

It also begs the question of cashing out 'greening up' after the 1st goal and waiting to re-enter at a higher price. The matches you will be selecting ie./ both teams above 2.0 may be ok for this. Matches that are low scoring and taken to be 1-1 affairs.

That's a really good angle that I hadn't really given any thought to... a parallel system could cover any game SV expects a 2-2 scoreline for instance, from any league at any point could then have this bet on, with a closing green-up as soon as the big odds drop indicating a goal.
The current plan is targetting high league-scoring matches only so will be kept separate for now.

 

[retriever]

Bet Angel has a Soccer Mystic tool. Have you used it?
Doesn't cover all games admittedly but may give some indication.

 

[paulb164]

That's a really good angle that I hadn't really given any thought to... a parallel system could cover any game SV expects a 2-2 scoreline for instance, from any league at any point could then have this bet on, with a closing green-up as soon as the big odds drop indicating a goal.
The current plan is targetting high league-scoring matches only so will be kept separate for now.

Just as a sideline, I will try this on the following 4 matches with the simple criteria in the previous post;
QPR v Sheffield Wed (today)
Juventus v Atalanta (today)
Stoke v Birmingham (tomorrow)
Sarpsborg v Start (tomorrow)

I don't want to create another thread on this (unless it looks really good), and this'll also be a test to see how the automation works with this scenario.

 

[paulb164]

Bet Angel has a Soccer Mystic tool. Have you used it?
Doesn't cover all games admittedly but may give some indication.

I have seen it, but not really used it. It's for the in-player and I prefer to rely on actual game data for in-play decisions. Have you tried it ?

 

[retriever]

Not for any particular match - just played around with the settings. For in-play betting, I tend to just go with gut feeling.

Barnsley v Wigan - price is creeping up for YES - now 1.92

Just for fun I was going to say £2 on 0-0 (10.5/1) and £10 on at 2.0 BTTS. Lets see if matched.

 

[paulb164]

The Barnsley v Wigan odds movement up to just before kick-off;



Post kick-off, it took a while to load up all the money again, and it was a few points below the mark just before kick-off... I now think that's when I should be entering the market. At 2 mins intot he game, best odds were 1.9 as opposed to the 1.95 just before kick-off.

 

[paulb164]

Just after kick-off - the peak in the chart's odds line is where the game went in-play

 

[paulb164]

That's a really good angle that I hadn't really given any thought to... a parallel system could cover any game SV expects a 2-2 scoreline for instance, from any league at any point could then have this bet on, with a closing green-up as soon as the big odds drop indicating a goal.
The current plan is targetting high league-scoring matches only so will be kept separate for now.

It's arguable as to whether this could compete in profitability with the over 0.5 goal market, as essentially you are looking for the same thing ? At least with this method you are entering at the start of the match, and can exit with (hopefully) a profit as soon as a goal happens.

 

[paulb164]

It's arguable as to whether this could compete in profitability with the over 0.5 goal market, as essentially you are looking for the same thing ? At least with this method you are entering at the start of the match, and can exit with (hopefully) a profit as soon as a goal happens.

Interesting and a good start - the automation test on the QPR v Sheff Wed game kicked in... backed the BTTS/yes at 1.72 with £2, and following a goal on 6 mins greened-up at 1.4 for a 46p profit ! There's legs in this system yet !
That's an almost 25% profit on stake (or equivalent odds of 1.23) - I certainly wouldn't have got that on the over 0.5 goal market 6 mins into the game !!

 

[retriever]

Swings and roundabouts Paul - how can one predict an early goal? But if it beats another area (over 0.5) then that's good.

I'll be back later for the Juventus v Atalanta match to see how that pans out ( have to go out now ).

 

[paulb164]

Swings and roundabouts Paul - how can one predict an early goal? But if it beats another area (over 0.5) then that's good.

I'll be back later for the Juventus v Atalanta match to see how that pans out ( have to go out now ).

agreed... would need to test it a lot more before I start using that method extensively. Lots of things to weight up, like;
liquidity - much more money goes on the 0.5 goal market than BTTS
weight of money - no point in trying to green up for a decent profit (on BF anyway) if there isn't anyone who's willing to take your lay bet
time of first goal - if it's a late one, then the green up probably won't be in a profitable position

There's probably a few more things to take into consideration that aren't obvious at this point...

 

[paulb164]

Not for any particular match - just played around with the settings. For in-play betting, I tend to just go with gut feeling.

Barnsley v Wigan - price is creeping up for YES - now 1.92

Just for fun I was going to say £2 on 0-0 (10.5/1) and £10 on at 2.0 BTTS. Lets see if matched.

I do so hope you got your bets on ?

 

[retriever]

No, it was just for fun (and theory testing).
I wouldn't have been able to let the 0-0 run into the 2nd half as a 1-0 final score would have meant both bets losing.
Two scenarios really.
1/ Cash out the CS 0-0 at HT and hope it covered most of the stake for BTTS and wait for the goals. Both bets winners or small loss.
2/ Cash out BTTS after 1st goal in the first half and hope the profit covered the £2 CS 0-0 bet. Possible small profit or small loss.

Not sure what's best really. May just rack up lots of small losses, and liquidity, as you say, may be a problem. A fair number of games do go to
0-0 at HT.