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BTTS - test system

paulb164

Colt
Looks like a Yes on that one. You would've had to hold your nerve though for BTTS with a 90+2 minute equaliser.
Did it work on the Sideline method, with the 1st goal at 62 minutes?

I just played the Man Utd v Saints game for a ROI of 52%. It helps if the 'underdog' scores 1st and early.
My BTTS-Yes plan is built around the premise that the market odds for the homa and away win are both between 2.0 and 3.0, giving me the impression that both teams are in with a good chance. The Man Utd v Southampton game's pre-match market was heavily in Man Utd's favour so didn't qualify for me.
But always good to hear other forumite's successes 👏👏👏
 

paulb164

Colt
I don't think there's much legs in this plan... but since we kinda explored the 'no' market, I've pulled some stats together and created another angle. It's proving at this early stage to be quite effective ! Average odds are over 2.0, meaning that I only need to hit 50% strike rate to profit, and I am currently getting 76%. Of the 21 games I have bet on so far, £10 straight bets on the BTTS 'no' market have returned £122.05 !
It's mostly based on overwhelming favourites keeping a clean sheet. There's a couple of simple filters also involved, but otherwise it's a pretty simple system to manage !
 

retriever

Gelding
That sounds really good !! That's an area of odds that I've been currently working on.....

I'm working on a portfolio of horse racing systems that are in the range of Evens to 6/4 and looking for more than 50 % strike rate over time. I know you can expect losing runs up to double digits with 50-50 plays but I don't think that selecting football matches and horses is the same as flicking a coin if you are picking the right conditions. There is an element of being in-play in the races too, that is looking promising, with odds reaching 3.0 or going slightly over.

My long term aim is to gain an average of a 'solid' 10 points per month that I can bet to provide income. I would ideally love to be betting these to £50 stakes on the exchange. Adding in football too may provide more balance and stability.
 
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Delboy99

Mare
... So recapping on this where does it stand st the moment in relation to rules? Apart from average odds over 2.00 and both teams to score, are there any further filters involved? ;)
 

paulb164

Colt
... So recapping on this where does it stand st the moment in relation to rules? Apart from average odds over 2.00 and both teams to score, are there any further filters involved? ;)
Hey Delboy99 Delboy99 - taking a break seat at the moment and keeping my money in my pocket for the time being. I think it's near impossible to bet on anything with any degree of certainty with the current pandemic crisis around messing up the sporting calendar, and any statistics in my opinion aren't reliable enough to use considering any sporting event is being conducted under such different conditions and circumstances to what created stats in the first place. Work has also commandeered most of my time as well, so I haven't really had any desire to throw my money away with a bet or two.
With this BTTS - yes plan, I don't think there's anything in it. It has kinda reinforced my belief that people have a tendency to bet on 'yes' instead of 'no', squirrilling down odds below that of what bookies have calculated to be the midpoint of expectation... in my opinion much better to see where the money is (indicating the movement of odds in a given direction) and bet against if the movement is significant enough !
More interesting is the bet and then green in-play on the same market - this has prroved lucrative for me when picking the right games from the right leagues, but now that most leagues are done, with no real South American leagues playing to replace them, there isn't much to analyse.
Further to the first item of betting, I was also finding a bit of value in betting on the BTTS - no market. Again being selective with the matches and leagues, that was giving me a profit, but the season endings have put paid to that.

That said, the Nordic leagues are settling down now and are in my preferred 25%+ into their seasons, so I might resurrect the profitable BTTS - no system in another thread
 

paulb164

Colt
OK - as per my post #42, I'm going to share my BTTS - No plan picks. There seems to be a few posts recently lamenting the lack of football posting, so I shall resurrect this post with the results and picks I'm getting with it, so here it is. Good luck to us all if you want to follow it with real money, but sods law dictates that while it works well in private, as soon as it goes public it could well bomb like a lead balloon !

A bit of background - I've been doing this since 16 July (although I missed a week between 1-7 August because of work), and to date I have profited by £169.83 to straight £10 stakes with the 53 qualifying games so far recorded. It currently has a 68% win ratio, with average odds of around 1.9 per game. The P/L chart for the trial period to date looks like this;

1597158628218.png

That big dip you can see in the middle is that week or two near the end of July where qualifying games in the main European leagues were playing their last matches of their respective seasons (I rarely bet on these games under normal circumstances unless there is a strong expectation and motivation by one side to win their game, but these were qualifiers in the system so I had to include them for the sake of the trial's data capture). A lesson learnt, and further confirmation of my long-held belief to avoid last day match betting. As soon as those leagues finished, the remainder competitive leagues were the Nordics which have been playing with no crowds from day 1 and so have reliable statistical data to work with, and a couple of other competitive leagues.
Further analysis has shown me that if I had bet 2pts (i.e. £20) on all qualifying games in leagues averaging less than 2.5 goals a game, then the profit could have been even better (indicated by the gold line).
 

Delboy99

Mare
... nicely presented as always Paul and looks to be decent results. Unless I have missed something there is no mention of how to arrive at the selected matches. For example are there any filters to apply or otherwise chosen by a certain show of desired odds? ;)
 

paulb164

Colt
... nicely presented as always Paul and looks to be decent results. Unless I have missed something there is no mention of how to arrive at the selected matches. For example are there any filters to apply or otherwise chosen by a certain show of desired odds? ;)
A few minor filters which are more to do with confirming picks' suitability rather than discounting them, but basically picking overwhelming favourites that are expecting to keep a clean sheet whether they win or not. One major filter is to not pick games where the league averages over 3 goals per game (which rules out the Norwegian matches - they tend to lend themselves quite effectively to the 'BTTS - yes' criteria). You could probably have the same success using your win picks to include BTTS - no as well ?
It's another of my Excel files that does the checking and selecting for me based on a few minor filters, but surprisingly basic compared to my usual checking criteria. As I am looking for the 'no's while everyone is looking for the 'yes's and the odds movements that happen because of that, I think that there's value in that alone. Filtering further to improve the picks seems to be quite productive.
 
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retriever

Gelding
Hi paulb164 paulb164 The Egypt match is not on Betfair......where are you placing these bets?
Is not being on the exchange a requirement for these picks?
I know this isn't a written requirement, but I thought you were an Exchange man (BA) ?

EDIT : Actually I cannot even find a single bookie taking BTTS bets on this match. Maybe it's early.
 
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paulb164

Colt
Hi paulb164 paulb164 The Egypt match is not on Betfair......where are you placing these bets?
Is not being on the exchange a requirement for these picks?
I know this isn't a written requirement, but I thought you were an Exchange man (BA) ?

EDIT : Actually I cannot even find a single bookie taking BTTS bets on this match. Maybe it's early.
No, looks like nobody offering that market for that game. Will remove it from the list, which is just as well since it finished 1-1 !
 

paulb164

Colt
A inauspicious start to the new style system. Some picks either not offering the market to bet on, or having postponements meaning only 4 games played so far with a £20.88 deficit on both lines.

1597484856620.png

More picks to come, but also had to remove a couple as no betting possible (the Egyptian league is looking to be a bit of a nightmare as it's offering qualifying games in a low-scoring league, but not many bookies allowing bets on them !).

Also the Finnish Yykonen game on the list is the bottom 2 clubs against each other - in the 14 games they have played so far this season they have scored 10 goals between them, so included here (2-2 goalfest final result I expect it'll turn out to be !)
 

paulb164

Colt
That's better - the two double bubble game wins returned the system to the black.

1597540243988.png

Something I have just noticed (obvious really when you think about it, but still needed to be confirmed through the analysis from results to emphasis the point) is that applying an odds filter of say 2.1 would have both improved the original results, and this revamp (the Finnish game that ended 2:4 would not have made it onto this spreadsheet with the filter in place, and both chart lines would be in the plus). So at this early stage, I am going to introduce that filter and set it to 2.1 to start with - I think it will make a big difference to profitability.
 

paulb164

Colt
Sorry guys - well overdue with the update and round-up.

This is the state of play to date (apologies for not posting some qualifiers pre-match... I have included them in the below round-up anyway, and since I am testing it with real money myself albeit with a couple of quid per match just to get the starting odds, I am happy to show a screengrab of my BF P/L to show they were bet on. I have to bet on them as well to see if the automation kicks in properly, which fortunately for the system it does - that 2.1 odds filer seems to be saving a lot of losses !).

1597958547275.png

just the 1 x 2pt bet on for tomorrow - the weekend should give us a few more qualifiers.
 

Delboy99

Mare
..... well presented Paul. Just looking at some of the selections, there seems to be quite a few which I took in the APS thread, quite remarkable really. ;)
 

paulb164

Colt
..... well presented Paul. Just looking at some of the selections, there seems to be quite a few which I took in the APS thread, quite remarkable really. ;)
I wouldn't be surprised... we are both looking for overwhelming favourites as picks. it might even be interesting to see how good your picks rate with the 'BTTS - No' market ?
 
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