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BTTS - test system
- Thread starter paulb164
- Start date
paulb164
Colt
The system is starting to show it's form now that a few games have been played... the odds filter and the staking plan are making a significant difference giving us a reasonably good profit for the gold line. Even the yellow line is showing a good recovery from nearly -£50 down to just over -£5.
So after today's games;
With regards to that odds filter, it has so far cancelled 5 separate bets, 4 of which would have lost and severely affected P/L. Had I introduced it from the start, then both lines on the chart would be in the plus with another game cancelled. But that is why it is a trial, so I can see what is effective. Nice to see the win % creep up and is at 60% - it would be a shade under 64% if the odds filter was included from the start... my aim is to to get it to around 65-70%.
Another thing to look forward to is that quite a few Euro leagues are just starting again, and will soon be in contention for this system. Also the Brazil Serie A and B which are good low-scoring leagues are about to be used for this as well, so lots to look forward to with this.
So after today's games;
With regards to that odds filter, it has so far cancelled 5 separate bets, 4 of which would have lost and severely affected P/L. Had I introduced it from the start, then both lines on the chart would be in the plus with another game cancelled. But that is why it is a trial, so I can see what is effective. Nice to see the win % creep up and is at 60% - it would be a shade under 64% if the odds filter was included from the start... my aim is to to get it to around 65-70%.
Another thing to look forward to is that quite a few Euro leagues are just starting again, and will soon be in contention for this system. Also the Brazil Serie A and B which are good low-scoring leagues are about to be used for this as well, so lots to look forward to with this.
paulb164
Colt
Just 1 of Sunday's games escaped the odds filter, which unfortunately lost !
Further analysis of the odds filter is convincing me to drop it a little further from 2.1 to 2.0 - although only 25 games into the trial so far, if I had the filter set at 2.0 from the start the trial would have much better results. The win ratio would be a very decent 72.7% and the qualifying matches would reduce from 16 games to 11 - not a bad thing as less pot is committed within bets if like me you have a few different systems playing at the same time. The P/L chart would look like this;
I will leave it for now as it is still early days for the trial, but would suggest that if you are using real money to consider reducing the odds filter to 2.0 - I suspect I'll be doing that with this sometime in the future but would prefer more than 25 games to draw conclusions from before I make further changes. I expect around 50 games recorded will be enough to convince me one way or another.
Further analysis of the odds filter is convincing me to drop it a little further from 2.1 to 2.0 - although only 25 games into the trial so far, if I had the filter set at 2.0 from the start the trial would have much better results. The win ratio would be a very decent 72.7% and the qualifying matches would reduce from 16 games to 11 - not a bad thing as less pot is committed within bets if like me you have a few different systems playing at the same time. The P/L chart would look like this;
I will leave it for now as it is still early days for the trial, but would suggest that if you are using real money to consider reducing the odds filter to 2.0 - I suspect I'll be doing that with this sometime in the future but would prefer more than 25 games to draw conclusions from before I make further changes. I expect around 50 games recorded will be enough to convince me one way or another.
paulb164
Colt
Very frustrating - for one reason or another the Egypt game's bet wasn't placed by BA - I can only assume that the odds filter killed the bet, which annoyingly came in (and being a 2 pointer it would have been a good win for the system). Still, the other recent results were encouraging for the system and both lines now in profit.
No qualifiers for Thursday , but should be some for Friday.
No qualifiers for Thursday , but should be some for Friday.
paulb164
Colt
Thursday's bet didn't get placed for me... prompting me to check my BA automation (especially as I couldn't really believe that the Egypt game on Wednesday also didn't take, and I am having trouble believing that game was over 2.1 odds !). In the automation I had a condition where the odds had to be over 1.5 so I didn't end up betting on games with low odds... that is why I think the last 2 bets weren't placed. I have now removed that condition (although in it's defence, had it not been there, the P/L would be lower as Thursday's game lost !).
paulb164
Colt
Apologies - just noticed that I had the points multiples all wrong. I set the multiples then sorted the games by date without changing the multiples afterwards. If I kept the above bets as is, then the new results would be;
However, there's no point in having a trial if it isn't accurate to the system parameters, so I have adjusted it to be accurate (which then makes the P/L a little worse, but then what's the point of a trial if it isn't accurate ?). With the adjustment to the point multiples, the results are;
Also note that it slightly changes Sunday's games.
However, there's no point in having a trial if it isn't accurate to the system parameters, so I have adjusted it to be accurate (which then makes the P/L a little worse, but then what's the point of a trial if it isn't accurate ?). With the adjustment to the point multiples, the results are;
Also note that it slightly changes Sunday's games.
paulb164
Colt
Catching up with the 2 games from last weekend, and the qualifiers for this weekend. Very few top level leagues playing this weekend with international matches being played.
* this weekend's Egypt game might not be a goer as BF isn't currently offering odds on the match. Also it is good to start including the Brazilian league as it is a traditionally low-scorer and perfect for this trial.
* this weekend's Egypt game might not be a goer as BF isn't currently offering odds on the match. Also it is good to start including the Brazilian league as it is a traditionally low-scorer and perfect for this trial.
paulb164
Colt
sorry all... putting this on hold for a while as it just doesn't look like a good runner ATM. Seems a bit too erratic for my liking, and I think it needs re-examining to see if it can become better using a different approach.
I have to say, this football betting is very erratic overall with the Covid restrictions affecting it hugely... really not the results as much as before.
I have to say, this football betting is very erratic overall with the Covid restrictions affecting it hugely... really not the results as much as before.
Delboy99
Mare
.... Yes I agree, I know I am getting irregular results from the Auto Profit Soccer thread, where good looking favourites are not getting all their own way. Home support looks to be missing, but some of the favourites are being held by absolute rubbish.
paulb164
Colt
very interesting to see perception translated into actual factual analysis... especially when he explains how the swing in home wins vs odds has resulted in a negative win value if betting on home teams to win as a strategy. Perhaps as he suggests, factoring in a 0.4 goal disadvantage when calculating goals in a game while it is crowdless if that indeed kills the home advantage will have a positive impact with my strategies as my predictions rely on goal expectations (something else that I learned from an early stage of football betting from the same source) to help me decide game outcomes. I think people who look for value are probably going to make the best of it until the markets do readjust.
It might even be worth looking at O/U 2.5 goals again until the markets fully adjust to that swing... take advantage of borderline over 2.5 game predictions and bet under ?