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Bradford City

Dave are those the average attendances
markfinn markfinn - Will be Mark, average attendance has a predictive signal overall in most "team sports" where "home/away" is used in the match schedule and would be a proxy for "club size/stature/standing", it's slightly better weighted by recency based on the caveat that if more people are attending a teams games now than say 2-3 months ago then something positive is happening at the club , ie investment, team playing well - is only one factor though and would have a small weighting in most models and things don't always play out to the theory - think of Man U :) it's usually normalised around the individual leagues average attendance and a +/- number can be created around that, and there other little tweaks you can do to make it more generic.
 
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markfinn markfinn - Will be Mark, average attendance has a predictive signal overall in most "team sports" where "home/away" is used in the match schedule and would be a proxy for "club size/stature/standing", it's slightly better weighted by recency based on the caveat that if more people are attending a teams games now than say 2-3 months ago then something positive is happening at the club , ie investment, team playing well - is only one factor though and would have a small weighting in most models and things don't always play out to the theory - think of Man U :) it's usually normalised around the individual leagues average attendance and a +/- number can be created around that, and there other little tweaks you can do to make it more generic.
Would be interesting to see some graphic illustrations of a seasons worth , although I suppose it’s fairly static ?
 
Would be interesting to see some graphic illustrations of a seasons worth , although I suppose it’s fairly static ?
As a variable It adds quite a strong signal when regressed against other variables - This is from 10 years of matches in top 3 leagues in 4 European countries, Spain, France, Italy & England & also includes Champions League matches from any clubs in their respective leagues - adjusted R2 of between 0.804 (France) to 0.925 (Spain) with the other 2 countries in between that range at 0.823 (Italy) and 0.853 (England) - that's a strong relationship and signifies a strong signal. Can see it being a very big factor when it comes to match significance - ie - Relegation battles, Playoffs, fighting for a Champions League place come the end of the season.
Coefficients with ** or *** are best and most significant with ** (p-val <0.05) & ***(p-val <0.01) so 95 & 99 % confidence intervals - T-Stats are normalised by sample size
This is using the natural logarithm of recency weighted geomean attendance and normalised around the median attendance of each league

regres1.jpg
regress2.jpg
 
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Bradford @Home should have the measure of Huddersfield, although a close game, with likely goals.

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Not too far off.....

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Delighted for the lad who scored for Bradford last night. Bishop Auckland lad who supported Newcastle from the terraces. Never got a chance at Newcastle's academy but Carlisle took a punt on him. He's done well in the lower leagues, pretty sure he played for Barrow as well.
 
Just ran the numbers for this week. 3 predictive elements now in the mix, if they all align, Form/Value/Poisson Stats, then "should" be good to go. Sometimes of they conflict, ie: Northampton v Bolton. (are Bolton really a 1.79 chance?)

Bradford @ 1.98 look good to go. 3-0? (as long Bobby Pointon (top scorer) lines up, should be ok).

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The table on the left is an interpretation of the league table, rating the Home/Away elements of each team. The other one is, if they continue in their current form, then that's their true position, good & bad.

1758878126452.png

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Just ran the numbers for this week. 3 predictive elements now in the mix, if they all align, Form/Value/Poisson Stats, then "should" be good to go. Sometimes of they conflict, ie: Northampton v Bolton. (are Bolton really a 1.79 chance?)

Bradford @ 1.98 look good to go. 3-0? (as long Bobby Pointon (top scorer) lines up, should be ok).

View attachment 160422

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The table on the left is an interpretation of the league table, rating the Home/Away elements of each team. The other one is, if they continue in their current form, then that's their true position, good & bad.

View attachment 160423

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Bradford host Blackpool tomorrow don't they. Home Win !! - if Steve Bruce's management career could be translated to xG he must be near -1.00 - he's been turfed out of more board rooms than a Romanian cleaning lady. Value could be in BTTS though with Bradford still a bit leaky at the back but they'll make up for it by scoring at least 2 here. Alexander was a solid defender as a player and he'll be working on tightening them up if they have any chance of sustaining a legitimate challenge. No problems up front though.
 
Bradford host Blackpool tomorrow don't they. Home Win !! - if Steve Bruce's management career could be translated to xG he must be near -1.00 - he's been turfed out of more board rooms than a Romanian cleaning lady. Value could be in BTTS though with Bradford still a bit leaky at the back but they'll make up for it by scoring at least 2 here. Alexander was a solid defender as a player and he'll be working on tightening them up if they have any chance of sustaining a legitimate challenge. No problems up front though.

Add to the mix....(local gazette)

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Someone doesn't agree, or hasn't caught up yet....

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As I post (Saturday 2.25pm), this is a snapshot of the market.

Bradford have drifted, even though Pointon and Swan likely to be in the line up.

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Probably one of the best ever defenders never to be fully capped by England eh Mark ?
Villa fans will remember he wasn't that "nice" to wee "Rossco" McCormack lol - "Gate-Gate" :)

Don’t think he was a realy great player , he played in a good team - but a nice bloke only met in airports and bars , but no edge just a normal bloke - it must be a nightmare trying to manage a load of over paid self entitled footballers. Five days a week work , would be better for the clubs and the players.
 
Don’t think he was a realy great player , he played in a good team - but a nice bloke only met in airports and bars , but no edge just a normal bloke - it must be a nightmare trying to manage a load of over paid self entitled footballers. Five days a week work , would be better for the clubs and the players.
markfinn markfinn Was Fergie's captain at United for a long time so to me at least that tells you something.
Not saying he was "really great" as in World-Class Mark but surely the same level as Terry "Where's that Maradona" Butcher or Mr Arsehole oops soz Mr Arsenal, Tony Adams, no ?? :)

Thought i'd be trendy and ask AI as is the fashion now, and seems to concur
Don't think Terry "Vegetables" rated him although good to see Bruce kept his dignity and knocked him back after a lifetime of "snub"
Probably right about the "nice-guy-no edge" thing though if he comes across like that although i'm wondering if he told you to do one as in "F-Off Pal" would you rate him higher then ? :)

AI Overview

Steve Bruce never received a cap for the England senior team, though he captained the England B team in 1987, which was his only appearance in an England shirt. He turned down a late offer for a friendly cap in 1994, feeling it would have been a "sympathy vote" after being overlooked for years. Despite this, he is often considered one of the best defenders of his era not to have earned a full international cap.

Why He Didn't Get a Cap
  • Competition:
    Bruce played in an era with many established England centre-backs, such as Terry Butcher, Tony Adams, and Des Walker, whom managers Bobby Robson and Terry Venables preferred.

    • Timing:
      He was in his mid-30s when Terry Venables offered him a cap, a late offer that Bruce viewed as a "sympathy cap" rather than a reflection of his best years.
 
Don’t think he was a realy great player , he played in a good team - but a nice bloke only met in airports and bars , but no edge just a normal bloke - it must be a nightmare trying to manage a load of over paid self entitled footballers. Five days a week work , would be better for the clubs and the players.
Aye your right about the "over-paid/self entitled" thing markfinn markfinn
The erosion started when Murdoch's Sky moved in on the game and it's just escalated since then. Knock on effect of playing for big money takes away the old concept of "playing for the jersey" add in "hard tackle insurance money" , VAR, 24/7 global streaming and FIFA/UEFA corruption and it's a long way from "the beautiful game"
 
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