• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Approaching speed figures

Chelmsford City times 2013-2020. I had the issue of Elmejor rating 85 but it was pointed out by O Outlander previously the start was moved forward by 30 yards or so, so to keep it simple I just added 1.7 seconds to his winning time rather than mess about with the standards. The scales are exactly as for Lingfield above. The distane of 1m 1f 46yds hasn't been used at Chelmsford since the race Tryster won and really that race was of such good quality compared to many at Chelmsford its hardly surprising several of the horses involved figure in this list.

1620673930724.png
 
The best fit actually seems to be 0.40 for anchoring to the OR. I could easily use RPRs and convert them to ORs but what I've found for myself is that to ensure there is enough of a sample size, you just drop the OR for a 3yo by 4lb and the OR for a 2yo by 12lb. Its simplistic but it seems to work OK, if you really wanted you could just do it so a 2yo in June drops by 12lb but deduct a 1lb for every two months afterwards.
Chelmsford City times 2013-2020. I had the issue of Elmejor rating 85 but it was pointed out by O Outlander previously the start was moved forward by 30 yards or so, so to keep it simple I just added 1.7 seconds to his winning time rather than mess about with the standards. The scales are exactly as for Lingfield above. The distane of 1m 1f 46yds hasn't been used at Chelmsford since the race Tryster won and really that race was of such good quality compared to many at Chelmsford its hardly surprising several of the horses involved figure in this list.

View attachment 100217
AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75 nothing pre 2017
but this is the top rated I have since 2017
race_dateracetimetrackplacehorse_nameYards*GASPEED+
10/05/2018​
20:10:00​
Chelmsford City1stWeekender
3080​
9​
114.62​
10/05/2018​
20:10:00​
Chelmsford City2ndHigher Power
3080​
9​
112.70​
22/09/2018​
15:25:00​
Chelmsford City1stMarnie James
1100​
-3​
112.69​
22/09/2018​
14:15:00​
Chelmsford City2ndCharles Molson
1540​
-3​
111.47​
19/06/2019​
19:40:00​
Chelmsford City1stTropics (USA)
1100​
3​
111.10​
31/08/2019​
20:45:00​
Chelmsford City2ndMaid For Life
2200​
-4​
111.02​
08/06/2019​
16:15:00​
Chelmsford City2ndTropics (USA)
1100​
-2​
110.74​
10/05/2018​
19:40:00​
Chelmsford City3rdZaaki
2200​
9​
110.63​
02/11/2019​
18:30:00​
Chelmsford City1stFirst In Line
3080​
0​
110.51​
31/08/2019​
19:15:00​
Chelmsford City2ndDocumenting
1540​
-4​
110.48​
01/06/2017​
19:10:00​
Chelmsford City2ndTricorn (IRE)
1760​
20​
110.44​
25/05/2017​
20:00:00​
Chelmsford City1stFanciful Angel (IRE)
2200​
10​
110.37​
04/07/2020​
18:40:00​
Chelmsford City1stMiss Celestial (IRE)
1540​
-7​
110.28​
15/09/2018​
15:25:00​
Chelmsford City2ndRufus King
1540​
-7​
110.23​
10/05/2018​
20:10:00​
Chelmsford City5thGreat Hall
3080​
9​
110.20​
21/06/2018​
14:55:00​
Chelmsford City1stIsomer (USA)
1760​
15​
110.19​
20/02/2019​
19:15:00​
Chelmsford City1stMatterhorn (IRE)
1760​
16​
110.07​
22/09/2018​
14:15:00​
Chelmsford City3rdWar Glory (IRE)
1540​
-3​
110.04​
15/09/2018​
15:25:00​
Chelmsford City1stVictory Wave (USA)
1540​
-7​
109.99​
12/09/2019​
19:20:00​
Chelmsford City1stRoyal Birth
1100​
3​
109.99​
02/09/2017​
19:50:00​
Chelmsford City2ndSutter County
1540​
22​
109.98​
12/09/2019​
18:50:00​
Chelmsford City2ndBedouins Story
1760​
3​
109.84​
08/06/2019​
16:15:00​
Chelmsford City3rdEncore dOr
1100​
-2​
109.84​
30/09/2017​
18:50:00​
Chelmsford City2ndAbdon
2200​
4​
109.73​
02/09/2017​
19:50:00​
Chelmsford City1stMasham Star (IRE)
1540​
22​
109.67​
04/08/2018​
14:45:00​
Chelmsford City2ndRude Awakening
3080​
0​
109.64​
21/06/2018​
14:55:00​
Chelmsford City2ndUnforgiving Minute
1760​
15​
109.56​
10/05/2018​
20:10:00​
Chelmsford City3rdOcean Of Love
3080​
9​
109.55​
30/09/2017​
18:50:00​
Chelmsford City1stPetite Jack
2200​
4​
109.33​
10/05/2018​
18:40:00​
Chelmsford City1stLucymai
1540​
9​
109.30​
14/08/2018​
15:30:00​
Chelmsford City1stWissahickon (USA)
2200​
-7​
109.23​
12/09/2019​
18:50:00​
Chelmsford City3rdCommander Cole
1760​
3​
109.20​
07/11/2019​
17:55:00​
Chelmsford City1stDubai Warrior
2200​
1​
109.18​
25/08/2018​
16:10:00​
Chelmsford City1stMagical Dreamer (IRE)
1320​
5​
109.16​
19/06/2019​
20:40:00​
Chelmsford City3rdHighgarden
3080​
3​
109.04​
31/08/2019​
19:15:00​
Chelmsford City4thVale Of Kent (IRE)
1540​
-4​
109.03​
28/09/2019​
18:20:00​
Chelmsford City1stBin Battuta
2200​
-17​
109.02​
06/07/2018​
20:05:00​
Chelmsford City1stLa Figlia (IRE)
1760​
14​
109.01​
 
A revised top 10 for 2020. To continue the Dubai Warrior/Bangkok debate, the former's run on 19 December 2019 got a 66 under this formula so is 6lb below Bangkok's later run of 72 (2nd in this list).
View attachment 100198
My first instinct seeing DUBAI getting 6lbs off BANGKOK would be to fancy DW, however to continue with that debate i would try and work out as best i could how the race might be run, so if DW were to have the run of the race and dictate the pace to suit i would say he was odds on to beat BANGKOK.

GOOD EFFORT was rated about 10lbs superior to ROYAL BIRTH when they met over 5f lingfield last november and beat him by 1L giving 7lbs with WATCHABLE in 4th btw, it goes without saying that you can always find contradictions in the formbook and all i am seeking to say is that it comes down to a matter of interpretation imo.
 
I seemed to have missed some interesting posts here!:D
The reason I don't get involved much myself with any discussion here is simply that
I'm out of my depth and out of my interest range, so think it best to just leave it to the experts, especially, as, from the little I am able to see, they rarely agree among themselves.

For me, the upshot or aim of it all is to be able to improve results.
Because of the inconsistencies that I regularly see ( imagine, I guess) in speed figures and ratings, I get mine off the peg ( from inform racing).
And, though I treat these with a healthy scepticism, these help me decide whether I back my own fancies or not.

Therefore, I feel I am more suited to the sort of discussion outlined by markfinn markfinn, ie. mostly about trainers and methods. Dunno where this is to be found, but I feel I should be there , rather than cluttering up this O.P. s experimental thread.

Finally, now that I have already messed up the thread, I'll state my own views about raw speed and timings: old school - based as much on greyhounds as hosses.
Run 'em over a set distance and time with a watch. After various exercises, diet changes, continue to record the improvements, or not, over the repetitions.
This all takes time, months of it.

OK, not very technical, I agree. But, the trainer will get a sense of when things are right and what suits best.
One northern trainer ( now retired) didn't do much else. When he came down to Wolver and said his was trying that day, he was mostly correct. He knew.
Dunno if he even knew what a sectional or percentile was, but, he got results when the money was down.

Right: as you were; over and out.:)
 
I agree they are a guide in what lets face it can be a very complicated job, as with all things that are to be solved or proved with calculations , a common base point must be identified - in this case the distance and going are variable and often misreported , thats what TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother and all other speed raters are constantly fighting with. No wonder there are slight mismatch’s in the numbers created. If it were other the Bill Benteners and Blooms of this world would have longer ruined the sport from a punting point of view.
 
What i like about the speedsters on this forum is that when they disagree with the official versions they know why and often explain there thinking. When you put numbers to a horses performance it helps to know the foundations involved and this knowledge can justify the additional effort required when creating your own. How can you get the best from any ratings without fully understanding how they are working. ?
 
Yep, don't disagree particularly with any of the posts since mine, but, when I said about what I can see of speed figures I speak from a position of ignorance, as I am not a member of the Inner Sanctum that Chesham Chesham mentions.
Not complaining, just explaining.
It's my own fault or my own choice that I am not a member; I did receive a very kind invitation to join.

So, as a heavily blinkered, maybe even hooded horse, I reiterate my point that I am not fit to "discuss" what I don't know or understand. That is why I, for one, don't have much to say on this good thread of @Austin Dillon, who is trying to achieve something.
My input just hinders and impedes and clutters, so that's my reasoning why I'll be staying off this thread.

Ain't nothing wrong with the thread, it's just that I have nothing to offer in this regard. Direct me to a thread about trainers and training methods and I may be able to conjure up something. :)
 
@Austin Dillon,

because
a) I wanted to learn
b) I wanted to support the thread. We are often encouraged to join in and post.

I agree I have nothing technical to add. That's why I said I won't be cluttering up the thread any more. :D

All the very best!

I don't do getting offended. I gamble.
Btw, I'm taking Bolshoi Ballet on for the Derby, where I hope to be in a week or three.
 
So all that said, progress continues. I've just done Kempton and have tried to calibrate it with Lingfield and Chelmsford so there is some consistency.

I'm interested in how other speed compilers rated the run of Count Calabash on 16 February 2019, he got an 84 on my scale, which is 6lb higher than the next best performance since 2013. Looking at the bare run itself he led from start to finish easing to a commanding 6 length win and it was good enough in the eyes of the Racing Post to merit a TS of 98 and an RPR of 109. Four other performers achieving a 78, as you can see. For further context, Enable when winning as she liked last year in preparation for the Arc ran to a 76.

I had Meraas as the best 3yo over this period, and he was later seen as good enough to be tried in a Steward Cup where he came a very creditable sixth (77 on my rating and an 88 with TS).

EDIT - First Receiver was 3.

1620842543304.png
 
Last edited:
On another point re Dundalk there was a race won by Primo Oumo in March 2017. He scored a 93 TS but a 96 on my rating.

Additionally several other horses in that race come off the charts there, it was apparently run in a time of 57 seconds dead, which seems remarkable, with other horses finishing close up and the winner carrying 9st 8lb.

Does it seem right for Primo Oumo to be several pounds ahead of everything to run at that track since 2013 or is there an obvious reason for why it didnt go on to win every Group 1 race under the sun?
 
AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75 Count Calbash didn’t figure that highly on my list, it’s interesting you have him so far ahead on your list.
Not saying your assessment is wrong btw, it’s just as likely if not more that your rating is justified, I don’t know.
Kempton list since 2017

race_dateracetimetrackplacehorse_nameYards*GASPEED+
18/11/2020​
18:55:00​
Kempton1stKinross
1760​
18​
116.23​
18/11/2020​
18:55:00​
Kempton2ndKhuzaam (USA)
1760​
18​
114.94​
18/11/2020​
18:55:00​
Kempton3rdVia Serendipity
1760​
18​
114.78​
20/11/2019​
18:10:00​
Kempton1stSet Piece
1760​
11​
114.63​
20/11/2019​
18:10:00​
Kempton2ndKhuzaam (USA)
1760​
11​
114.58​
08/09/2018​
14:05:00​
Kempton2ndCrystal Ocean
2639​
22​
114.02​
06/03/2019​
16:55:00​
Kempton1stMatterhorn (IRE)
2199​
12​
113.90​
05/04/2021​
16:35:00​
Kempton1stSleeping Lion (USA)
3518​
20​
113.38​
08/09/2018​
14:05:00​
Kempton1stEnable
2639​
22​
113.15​
27/03/2021​
14:45:00​
Kempton2ndBarbill (IRE)
1320​
28​
112.90​
06/11/2017​
15:50:00​
Kempton1stGulliver
1320​
7​
112.49​
27/03/2021​
14:45:00​
Kempton1stGreat Ambassador
1320​
28​
112.46​
27/03/2021​
14:45:00​
Kempton3rdGulliver
1320​
28​
112.39​
07/04/2018​
14:05:00​
Kempton1stA Momentofmadness
1100​
11​
112.17​
02/12/2020​
18:00:00​
Kempton2ndPremier Power
1320​
21​
112.17​
20/11/2019​
18:10:00​
Kempton3rdAccidental Agent
1760​
11​
111.99​
30/03/2019​
15:15:00​
Kempton4thIsland Brave (IRE)
2419​
4​
111.88​
09/04/2021​
19:10:00​
Kempton1stDragon Symbol
1320​
26​
111.79​
08/09/2018​
15:15:00​
Kempton1stWar Glory (IRE)
1760​
22​
111.69​
07/04/2018​
14:05:00​
Kempton2ndJumira Bridge
1100​
11​
111.68​
05/09/2020​
14:35:00​
Kempton1stEnable
2639​
12​
111.64​
30/03/2019​
14:05:00​
Kempton1stMootasadir
2199​
4​
111.55​
18/11/2020​
18:55:00​
Kempton4thLord Rapscallion (IRE)
1760​
18​
111.41​
02/12/2020​
18:00:00​
Kempton4thSoldiers Minute
1320​
21​
111.32​
31/03/2018​
16:55:00​
Kempton1stTomily (IRE)
1320​
21​
111.27​
18/11/2020​
17:55:00​
Kempton1stRebels Romance (IRE)
1760​
18​
111.07​
20/04/2019​
16:15:00​
Kempton2ndVibrant Chords
1320​
11​
111.07​
31/03/2018​
16:55:00​
Kempton2ndUdontdodou
1320​
21​
111.06​
22/11/2017​
18:40:00​
Kempton4thKhafoo Shememi (IRE)
1760​
21​
110.83​
28/10/2019​
19:30:00​
Kempton1stSoldiers Minute
1320​
7​
110.81​
22/11/2017​
18:40:00​
Kempton1stSecond Thought (IRE)
1760​
21​
110.81​
05/11/2018​
18:00:00​
Kempton1stKasperenko
2639​
3​
110.74​
05/04/2021​
16:35:00​
Kempton2ndPostileo (IRE)
3518​
20​
110.73​
10/10/2019​
19:00:00​
Kempton1stVia Serendipity
1760​
14​
110.59​
31/03/2018​
16:20:00​
Kempton1stCrowned Eagle
2419​
21​
110.51​
09/04/2021​
19:40:00​
Kempton1stMy Frankel
2639​
26​
110.46​
08/09/2018​
15:15:00​
Kempton6thHoney Man (IRE)
1760​
22​
110.39​
02/12/2020​
18:00:00​
Kempton3rdTawny Port
1320​
21​
110.37​
16/02/2019​
19:45:00​
Kempton1stCount Calabash (IRE)
2639​
10​
110.36​
20/04/2019​
15:45:00​
Kempton1stAgrotera (IRE)
1760​
11​
110.34​
07/04/2018​
15:15:00​
Kempton1stHunaina (IRE)
1760​
11​
110.26​
21/11/2018​
18:40:00​
Kempton1stFlaming Spear (IRE)
1760​
13​
110.18​
08/09/2018​
15:15:00​
Kempton3rdHakeem
1760​
22​
110.07​
28/10/2020​
19:45:00​
Kempton1stLuncies
2639​
17​
110.01​
 
AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75 similarly I don't have Primo Oumo as a standout, like someone said on one of the threads its fascinating how even though we are all trying to do the same thing ie. putting a numerical value on the times of horse races we all come up with such varied results.
Dundalk best since 2017

28/02/2020​
20:00:00​
Dundalk1stSan Andreas (IRE)
1540​
20​
113.30​
20/12/2019​
19:45:00​
Dundalk2ndSimsir (IRE)
2350​
7​
112.75​
16/11/2018​
20:00:00​
Dundalk1stMassif Central (IRE)
2350​
-3​
111.01​
07/02/2020​
20:30:00​
Dundalk1stSan Andreas (IRE)
1760​
7​
110.99​
26/01/2018​
18:00:00​
Dundalk1stClear Skies
2350​
2​
110.82​
20/12/2019​
19:45:00​
Dundalk1stCharcor (IRE)
2350​
7​
110.39​
16/10/2020​
19:45:00​
Dundalk1stUrban Beat (IRE)
1100​
1​
110.39​
12/07/2017​
16:35:00​
Dundalk1stMoviesta (USA)
1100​
12​
110.02​
06/04/2018​
19:30:00​
Dundalk2ndAmbassadorial (USA)
1540​
28​
109.66​
29/09/2017​
19:30:00​
Dundalk1stReckless Endeavour (IRE)
1320​
5​
109.47​
08/12/2017​
20:30:00​
Dundalk5thGordon Lord Byron (IRE)
1760​
-4​
109.46​
09/03/2018​
17:30:00​
Dundalk3rdPrimo Uomo (IRE)
1100​
19​
109.23​
07/12/2018​
19:30:00​
Dundalk1stKings Field (IRE)
1760​
3​
109.12​
20/10/2017​
20:30:00​
Dundalk1stMassif Central (IRE)
1760​
9​
109.09​
20/10/2017​
20:00:00​
Dundalk2ndHit The Bid
1100​
9​
108.78​
16/10/2020​
19:45:00​
Dundalk3rdMy Laureate (IRE)
1100​
1​
108.67​
16/10/2020​
19:45:00​
Dundalk2ndMuker (IRE)
1100​
1​
108.65​
06/03/2020​
17:15:00​
Dundalk1stSceptical
1100​
-2​
108.48​
11/10/2019​
19:45:00​
Dundalk2ndMassif Central (IRE)
2350​
5​
108.43​
20/10/2017​
20:00:00​
Dundalk1stTake Cover
1100​
9​
108.11​
20/12/2019​
19:45:00​
Dundalk7thKings Vow (FR)
2350​
7​
108.10​
16/03/2018​
21:00:00​
Dundalk3rdBeach Bar (IRE)
1760​
3​
108.10​
29/09/2017​
20:00:00​
Dundalk1stWar Decree (USA)
2350​
5​
108.04​
 
Just realist my Dundalk sheet only started in May 2017 so I don't have the run from March that year will rate the card later see what it returns
 
AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75 that time by Primo Oumo seems incredible a field of close finishing well know sprinting handicappers running 57.08 when no other horse has clocked less than 57.65 since 2017, is suggests the ga was around 0.18 sec/fur fast, when the rest of the cats is suggesting 0.20 s/f slow.
The 5f in Dundalk is run on a chute so is possible the going was faster over the 5f , it was also the first race on the card maybe the jockeys reported it was riding very fast and they harrowed it after the first race, all ifs and maybes.
But it is an extraordinary time that doesn’t add up, it’s really hard to believe the time is correct, there are no videos of the race I can find and the race is ancient history so not that important, but is is certainly an anomaly imo.
 
Last edited:
AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75 i managed to watch a video of Primo Oumo race , the time of 57.08 is correct, it’s inconceivable that in an average handicap most of the field can run faster than any other horse in any other race over the distance in 5 years.
My sheet only gave the run 108,5 , that’s because it utilises all runners not just winners when calculating going allowance, so used runners solely from this race, but this left all other races on the card very lowly rated with a strong correlation to each other , they obviously weren’t all hopelessly slow races.
So something is out with that 5f race, on the video is looked very windy day, maybe it was helping the horses on the 5f chute to an exaggerated degree, or maybe they put the stalls in the wrong place for the 5f race, this is Ireland.
Who knows but that time is an outlier for some reason yet unknown.
 
AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75 i managed to watch a video of Primo Oumo race , the time of 57.08 is correct, it’s inconceivable that in an average handicap most of the field can run faster than any other horse in any other race over the distance in 5 years.
My sheet only gave the run 108,5 , that’s because it utilises all runners not just winners when calculating going allowance, so used runners solely from this race, but this left all other races on the card very lowly rated with a strong correlation to each other , they obviously weren’t all hopelessly slow races.
So something is out with that 5f race, on the video is looked very windy day, maybe it was helping the horses on the 5f chute to an exaggerated degree, or maybe they put the stalls in the wrong place for the 5f race, this is Ireland.
Who knows but that time is an outlier for some reason yet unknown.
Its a fascinating one. I know if I manipulate that race in some way it throws all the other ratings out, if I leave it maybe just put a massive red flag/squiggle against the whole race and accept it to be a dubious outcome. I could also look at the best performances elsewhere of other horses in the race and see if it merits some changes.
 
O Outlander are you using a going allowance per race as opposed to the whole card?

Edit I think what you've said is that this one race ended up informing your going allowance, meaning a very fast track against which all other races looked like a slow plod.

It seems justifable to use two going allowances for that meeting.
 
Last edited:
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