AustinDillon75
Colt
I've now got a few standard times to have an experiment with, and using those I've collated in my thread from the weekend on that subject, I've now decided to have a go at creating some ratings from them.
To explain, the standard times are for all weather races from 2019, and I've now tried some ratings for the first couple of days of 2020. The steps I've used are these and the horse in question was Cat Royale who won the first at Chelmsford City on 2 January 2020. It looks more convoluted than it actually is, if you have the data.
I have taken the view that in creating standard times that I got some decent ones when removing outliers and going to the 6th percentile. In the above example, I've aligned all performances to what a 100 horse would be expected to achieve, and in the above example, the theoretical 100 horse might well have won the race in 123.38 (8) as opposed to the standard of 121.32, Cat Royale therefore ran just under 2 seconds above the standard for 10 furlongs, and his going adjust was 0.21 (9).
After removing all outliers, the 6th percentile figure going adjust for the meeting was 0.14, so I've adopted this as an acceptable going allowance for the meeting. Should be noted, the last two races did not have any horses with ORs, so none of those runners are factored into the going allowance at this stage, I could use a formula from HRB ratings to guess their likely ORs, or take the resulting RPRs and convert them to OR, but I'm reasonably OK with the idea that most horses running here had an OR that allows a fairly accurate impression of the going allowance.
Below were the figures I got for the winning horses. The idea would be to have a rolling 12 month standard time for each track, so a race on 1 April would be based on standards applicable to the 12 months before, and so on. There's no obvious suggestion that the track got especially faster or slower as the meeting went on, based on the last column, but if you feel there's a clear trend I guess you could always alter your going allowance to suit.
Brigand won the second race with a decent figure, but I've noted that Agent of Fortune was 4th with a SPD on my scale of 62 which matched his OR, he then went on to win 3 of his next 4 races. Again interested in views from members of the forum.
To explain, the standard times are for all weather races from 2019, and I've now tried some ratings for the first couple of days of 2020. The steps I've used are these and the horse in question was Cat Royale who won the first at Chelmsford City on 2 January 2020. It looks more convoluted than it actually is, if you have the data.
I have taken the view that in creating standard times that I got some decent ones when removing outliers and going to the 6th percentile. In the above example, I've aligned all performances to what a 100 horse would be expected to achieve, and in the above example, the theoretical 100 horse might well have won the race in 123.38 (8) as opposed to the standard of 121.32, Cat Royale therefore ran just under 2 seconds above the standard for 10 furlongs, and his going adjust was 0.21 (9).
After removing all outliers, the 6th percentile figure going adjust for the meeting was 0.14, so I've adopted this as an acceptable going allowance for the meeting. Should be noted, the last two races did not have any horses with ORs, so none of those runners are factored into the going allowance at this stage, I could use a formula from HRB ratings to guess their likely ORs, or take the resulting RPRs and convert them to OR, but I'm reasonably OK with the idea that most horses running here had an OR that allows a fairly accurate impression of the going allowance.
Below were the figures I got for the winning horses. The idea would be to have a rolling 12 month standard time for each track, so a race on 1 April would be based on standards applicable to the 12 months before, and so on. There's no obvious suggestion that the track got especially faster or slower as the meeting went on, based on the last column, but if you feel there's a clear trend I guess you could always alter your going allowance to suit.
Brigand won the second race with a decent figure, but I've noted that Agent of Fortune was 4th with a SPD on my scale of 62 which matched his OR, he then went on to win 3 of his next 4 races. Again interested in views from members of the forum.