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Approaching speed figures

T tacker sectional imo have some merit, I don't think they are the golden goose, currently you have sectional for all uk racing but not in a format that is useable , so unless you want to pay timeform the equivalent of a medium sized counties GDP for their hand timed sectionals then it's just not worth bothering looking at sectionals, it's time consuming enough keeping of top of form/speed when we have downloadable results for that in a format we can use.
Manually looking into every sectional, I calculate there would need to be approx 15000 hours in a day for it to be viable.
I know you are a big fan of sectionals, I would make a suggestion The Hare The Hare is happy providing Hong Kong data on his Hong Kong speed figures thread, it is the only data I've seen that has sectionals, only 2 meetings a week might be something you could get into and study.
It's still not an easy game even with all the facts and figures , I backed a horse in Hong Kong a few weeks ago I thought was a racing certainly, it came third after leading into the final furlong, it ran again today and won by half the track over the same CD.
I thought it was a cert again but didn't bother this time because I'm an idiot(and the price went down to only evens).
I have found that even when I'm right about a horse if I put money on them they wil find a way to lose, I only ever seem to win at the Cheltenham Festival the rest of the year I'm hopeless.

Forgot to mention the 2 horses that beat that horse a few weeks ago where left miles behind eating his dust today, the horse is so far superior to them that is just beggars belief how it didn't win when my money was down, it's just unfathomable and can only be the weight of my money.
Sorry O Outlander I somehow missed this post, probably busy watching rhe mighty blades, takes a bit of doing.

Again my purpose here wasn't to try and convince anyone to incorperate sectionals into their speed figures, 15000 hours a day, that's a long day.

Mention was made of DUBAI WARRIOR so that's why i got involved given we had discussed it before, in my opinion with that race is that BANGKOK had the formbook on his side, it appears that the speed figures backed up the form ( i think AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75 is correct ) but the sectionals posed a problem and it was you that then came up with the theory of how the race might be run, slower than BANGKOK needed and dettori got all the praise that day.

For what it's worth i only need to give a cursory glance to sectionals as part of a rather simplistic approach to form reading when i feel it worthwhile but the speed figures in and around that little jigsaw involving a few horses in a few races.

All done with now lads.
 
“Don’t you think it’s strange that @Ttacker goes AWOL when a decent discussion takes place, when it is him who asks for one.”
Hi Chesham Chesham - Perhaps he is out ? I dont know as it was not relevant my post - I don’t defend and hopefully don't offend any poster on this forum - if a question was asked I would hope it was explored to the benefit snd input of all members - cross threading form to speed rating - my fault
 
So back to the subject, I have followed the ideas of O Outlander from the Standard Times thread to devise a series of ratings for Lingfield. All of these ratings date back to 2013 now but do not at this stage cover races from 2021 as I've not had time to download the results. On the same scale as previous. Kachy producing 3 of the best 10 performances according to all this. The 2m marathon of 14 April 2017 comes out well from it too.


1620651278685.png
EDIT - the performance of Toriano has no place in here - that was a race run on a day of 2, 3, 4 runners etc so the going allowance has inflated it far too greatly. Adjustment needed.


1620651587513.png

As regards the above posts I've certainly never presented this thread as anything other than a forum for speed ratings, if people are discussing pedigrees, pace, sectionals etc I've no issue with it but at this stage I couldn't contribute anything meaningful to what people already know on those subjects.
 
Last edited:
A revised top 10 for 2020. To continue the Dubai Warrior/Bangkok debate, the former's run on 19 December 2019 got a 66 under this formula so is 6lb below Bangkok's later run of 72 (2nd in this list).
1620661970085.png
 
my top Lingfield ratings since 2017 just as a guide, but I don't think you need any guidance, ratings look excellent to me AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75
race_dateracetimetrackplacehorse_nameYards*GASPEED+
19/04/2019​
16:15:00​
Lingfield1stMatterhorn (IRE)
2200​
20​
120.81​
19/01/2018​
14:30:00​
Lingfield1stKachy
1321​
7​
118.46​
02/02/2019​
13:45:00​
Lingfield1stKachy
1321​
1​
118.11​
19/04/2019​
15:05:00​
Lingfield1stKachy
1321​
20​
117.18​
01/02/2020​
14:55:00​
Lingfield1stBangkok (IRE)
2200​
1​
116.28​
30/03/2018​
16:10:00​
Lingfield1stLucky Team (FR)
1761​
4​
115.89​
19/04/2019​
16:45:00​
Lingfield1stOh This Is Us (IRE)
1761​
20​
115.49​
19/04/2019​
16:15:00​
Lingfield2ndWissahickon (USA)
2200​
20​
115.03​
19/04/2019​
16:45:00​
Lingfield2ndIndyco (FR)
1761​
20​
114.71​
30/03/2018​
16:10:00​
Lingfield2ndSecond Thought (IRE)
1761​
4​
114.56​
30/03/2018​
16:10:00​
Lingfield3rdGoring (GER)
1761​
4​
114.45​
19/04/2019​
16:15:00​
Lingfield3rdPactolus (IRE)
2200​
20​
114.41​
03/02/2018​
14:00:00​
Lingfield1stKachy
1321​
5​
114.24​
03/02/2018​
14:00:00​
Lingfield2ndKimberella
1321​
5​
114.17​
30/03/2018​
15:05:00​
Lingfield1stCity Light (FR)
1321​
4​
114.04​
03/02/2018​
14:00:00​
Lingfield3rdCaspian Prince (IRE)
1321​
5​
113.95​
22/02/2020​
15:15:00​
Lingfield1stDubai Warrior
2200​
7​
113.95​
18/11/2017​
14:45:00​
Lingfield1stMaster The World (IRE)
2200​
3​
113.84​
03/02/2018​
14:00:00​
Lingfield4thIntisaab
1321​
5​
113.81​
23/02/2019​
15:15:00​
Lingfield1stWissahickon (USA)
2200​
2​
113.71​
30/03/2018​
16:10:00​
Lingfield4thKing Malpic (FR)
1761​
4​
113.65​
02/04/2021​
16:45:00​
Lingfield1stKhuzaam (USA)
1761​
12​
113.56​
19/04/2019​
16:15:00​
Lingfield4thRoc Angel (FR)
2200​
20​
113.38​
24/02/2018​
15:50:00​
Lingfield2ndMr Scaramanga
1761​
12​
113.34​
30/03/2018​
16:10:00​
Lingfield5thMr Scaramanga
1761​
4​
113.12​
30/03/2018​
16:10:00​
Lingfield6thCaptain Joy (IRE)
1761​
4​
113.09​
03/02/2018​
14:00:00​
Lingfield5thGulliver
1321​
5​
113.08​
02/02/2019​
14:55:00​
Lingfield1stWissahickon (USA)
2200​
1​
113.06​
03/02/2018​
14:00:00​
Lingfield6thLancelot Du Lac (ITY)
1321​
5​
113.01​
02/04/2021​
17:15:00​
Lingfield1stLord Of The Lodge (IRE)
1541​
12​
113.01​
19/04/2019​
16:15:00​
Lingfield5thVictory Bond
2200​
20​
112.96​
24/02/2018​
15:50:00​
Lingfield1stGoring (GER)
1761​
12​
112.86​
31/10/2019​
13:55:00​
Lingfield1stWar Glory (IRE)
1541​
14​
112.80​
30/03/2018​
16:40:00​
Lingfield1stVictory Bond
2200​
4​
112.73​
19/04/2019​
15:05:00​
Lingfield2ndGeorge Bowen (IRE)
1321​
20​
112.50​
06/01/2018​
14:20:00​
Lingfield1stArcanada (IRE)
1761​
9​
112.45​
18/11/2017​
14:45:00​
Lingfield2ndVictory Bond
2200​
3​
112.40​
 
my top Lingfield ratings since 2017 just as a guide, but I don't think you need any guidance, ratings look excellent to me AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75
race_dateracetimetrackplacehorse_nameYards*GASPEED+
19/04/2019​
16:15:00​
Lingfield1stMatterhorn (IRE)
2200​
20​
120.81​
19/01/2018​
14:30:00​
Lingfield1stKachy
1321​
7​
118.46​
02/02/2019​
13:45:00​
Lingfield1stKachy
1321​
1​
118.11​
19/04/2019​
15:05:00​
Lingfield1stKachy
1321​
20​
117.18​
01/02/2020​
14:55:00​
Lingfield1stBangkok (IRE)
2200​
1​
116.28​
30/03/2018​
16:10:00​
Lingfield1stLucky Team (FR)
1761​
4​
115.89​
19/04/2019​
16:45:00​
Lingfield1stOh This Is Us (IRE)
1761​
20​
115.49​
19/04/2019​
16:15:00​
Lingfield2ndWissahickon (USA)
2200​
20​
115.03​
19/04/2019​
16:45:00​
Lingfield2ndIndyco (FR)
1761​
20​
114.71​
30/03/2018​
16:10:00​
Lingfield2ndSecond Thought (IRE)
1761​
4​
114.56​
30/03/2018​
16:10:00​
Lingfield3rdGoring (GER)
1761​
4​
114.45​
19/04/2019​
16:15:00​
Lingfield3rdPactolus (IRE)
2200​
20​
114.41​
03/02/2018​
14:00:00​
Lingfield1stKachy
1321​
5​
114.24​
03/02/2018​
14:00:00​
Lingfield2ndKimberella
1321​
5​
114.17​
30/03/2018​
15:05:00​
Lingfield1stCity Light (FR)
1321​
4​
114.04​
03/02/2018​
14:00:00​
Lingfield3rdCaspian Prince (IRE)
1321​
5​
113.95​
22/02/2020​
15:15:00​
Lingfield1stDubai Warrior
2200​
7​
113.95​
18/11/2017​
14:45:00​
Lingfield1stMaster The World (IRE)
2200​
3​
113.84​
03/02/2018​
14:00:00​
Lingfield4thIntisaab
1321​
5​
113.81​
23/02/2019​
15:15:00​
Lingfield1stWissahickon (USA)
2200​
2​
113.71​
30/03/2018​
16:10:00​
Lingfield4thKing Malpic (FR)
1761​
4​
113.65​
02/04/2021​
16:45:00​
Lingfield1stKhuzaam (USA)
1761​
12​
113.56​
19/04/2019​
16:15:00​
Lingfield4thRoc Angel (FR)
2200​
20​
113.38​
24/02/2018​
15:50:00​
Lingfield2ndMr Scaramanga
1761​
12​
113.34​
30/03/2018​
16:10:00​
Lingfield5thMr Scaramanga
1761​
4​
113.12​
30/03/2018​
16:10:00​
Lingfield6thCaptain Joy (IRE)
1761​
4​
113.09​
03/02/2018​
14:00:00​
Lingfield5thGulliver
1321​
5​
113.08​
02/02/2019​
14:55:00​
Lingfield1stWissahickon (USA)
2200​
1​
113.06​
03/02/2018​
14:00:00​
Lingfield6thLancelot Du Lac (ITY)
1321​
5​
113.01​
02/04/2021​
17:15:00​
Lingfield1stLord Of The Lodge (IRE)
1541​
12​
113.01​
19/04/2019​
16:15:00​
Lingfield5thVictory Bond
2200​
20​
112.96​
24/02/2018​
15:50:00​
Lingfield1stGoring (GER)
1761​
12​
112.86​
31/10/2019​
13:55:00​
Lingfield1stWar Glory (IRE)
1541​
14​
112.80​
30/03/2018​
16:40:00​
Lingfield1stVictory Bond
2200​
4​
112.73​
19/04/2019​
15:05:00​
Lingfield2ndGeorge Bowen (IRE)
1321​
20​
112.50​
06/01/2018​
14:20:00​
Lingfield1stArcanada (IRE)
1761​
9​
112.45​
18/11/2017​
14:45:00​
Lingfield2ndVictory Bond
2200​
3​
112.40​
Yeah but with a massive balls up on Toriano. Will do this for Chelmsford City next and see what occurs. Lingfield is where we've had the most in common so its going to be interesting to see how other tracks compare. I've changed my going percentile from 0.5 to 0.25 and its dropped Toriano down to 55 whilst keeping the remaining ratings pretty stable. Can't see the marathon race won by Winning Story in your list?
 
One last comment AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75 , rating races pre 2017 will get you in all sorts of a mess because the courses were remeasured and some starts moved, you see the slight differences in distances you have in Lingfield 1100 became 1106 that is because it was 1106 all along and they finally got around to measuring it properly, see the 2 mile 3520 yds that was remeasured to 3469 yds but it was 3469 all along (yes they had it wrong by 51 yds for years) , none of the starts were moved in Lingfield AW.
If you try rating races pre 2017 or using times pre 2017 to create standards for most turf tracks you will devalue your work because no distance was as it seemed pre 2017
 
One last comment AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75 , rating races pre 2017 will get you in all sorts of a mess because the courses were remeasured and some starts moved, you see the slight differences in distances you have in Lingfield 1100 became 1106 that is because it was 1106 all along and they finally got around to measuring it properly, see the 2 mile 3520 yds that was remeasured to 3469 yds but it was 3469 all along (yes they had it wrong by 51 yds for years) , none of the starts were moved in Lingfield AW.
If you try rating races pre 2017 or using times pre 2017 to create standards for most turf tracks you will devalue your work because no distance was as it seemed pre 2017
So for this Lingfield sheet, would you suggest replace the 1100s with 1106 and replace the 3520s with 3469 and re-run it all?
 
So for this Lingfield sheet, would you suggest replace the 1100s with 1106 and replace the 3520s with 3469 and re-run it all?
Look at what they did with the Turf track in Lingfield
LINGFIELD PARK
TurfOld Distance DescriptionNew Distance DescriptionStart Moved
5fabout FIVE FURLONGS [TURF] [4f 217yds]NO3yds (-)
6fSIX FURLONGS [TURF] [6f]YESMoved Back 3yds
7fSEVEN FURLONGS [TURF] [7f]YESMoved Back 6yds
7f abt 140 ydsSEVEN FURLONGS about 135 YARDS [TURF] [7f abt 135yds]NO5yds (-)
1m abt 1fONE MILE about ONE FURLONG [TURF] [9f]YESMoved Fwd 19yds
1m 2fONE MILE about TWO FURLONGS [TURF] [abt 10f]YESMoved Fwd 32yds
1m 3f abt 106 ydsONE MILE THREE FURLONGS abt 133 YARDS [TURF] [11f abt 133yds]NO27yds (+)
1m 5fONE MILE about FIVE FURLONGS [TURF] [abt 13f]NOnone
1m abt 6fONE MILE about SIX FURLONGS [TURF] [14f]YESMoved Fwd 118yds
abt 2mTWO MILES about 68 YARDS [TURF] [16f abt 68yds]NO68yds (+)
2m 4f abt 44ydsTWO MILES FOUR FURLONGS abt 44 YARDS [TURF] [20f abt 44yds]NEW STARTnone
 
Yeah but with a massive balls up on Toriano. Will do this for Chelmsford City next and see what occurs. Lingfield is where we've had the most in common so its going to be interesting to see how other tracks compare. I've changed my going percentile from 0.5 to 0.25 and its dropped Toriano down to 55 whilst keeping the remaining ratings pretty stable. Can't see the marathon race won by Winning Story in your list?
just looked at this does this mean you were using the 50th percentile and now using 25th percentile for going?
 
just looked at this does this mean you were using the 50th percentile and now using 25th percentile for going?
Yes it does. I could carry on for ever posting different top 10s and 20s but to be honest, what's the use. I should really do a check to see which percentiles of each give rise to the best correlation between OR and my own figures.
 
Yes it does. I could carry on for ever posting different top 10s and 20s but to be honest, what's the use. I should really do a check to see which percentiles of each give rise to the best correlation between OR and my own figures.
I only ask because I did a lot of experimentation with pinpointing best percentile for going allowances, if I went over 0.15 too many rogue ratings appeared for my liking.
In the end I settled on 0.085
However you anchor your ratings to the OR which is a pre-race rating and I anchor mine to my own performance ratings achieved on the day so this could affect the optimum percentile for your ratings compared to mine.
 
I only ask because I did a lot of experimentation with pinpointing best percentile for going allowances, if I went over 0.15 too many rogue ratings appeared for my liking.
In the end I settled on 0.085
However you anchor your ratings to the OR which is a pre-race rating and I anchor mine to my own performance ratings achieved on the day so this could affect the optimum percentile for your ratings compared to mine.
The best fit actually seems to be 0.40 for anchoring to the OR. I could easily use RPRs and convert them to ORs but what I've found for myself is that to ensure there is enough of a sample size, you just drop the OR for a 3yo by 4lb and the OR for a 2yo by 12lb. Its simplistic but it seems to work OK, if you really wanted you could just do it so a 2yo in June drops by 12lb but deduct a 1lb for every two months afterwards.
 
@ AustinDillon75 AustinDillon75
Hello, if you want to play with old times this might help
Thanks this and what O Outlander produced earlier is really interesting. So taking Chepstow as an example they had a previous distance of 1 mile 2 furlongs and 36 yards so just moved the start 36 yards back, but decided to keep the 16 yards extra over 5, 6 and 7 furlongs.

At Beverley the 1m 4f 16 yds was found to be 7 yards too short so they just accepted the re-measurement and therefore for Beverley any races pre-2017 should retrospectively have been considered to be run at 1m 4f 23 yds (rail movements notwithstanding). All worth noting if I ever get round to flat courses.
 
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