Delboy99
Sire
...... if these are BTTS then it's irrelevent as they are on the wrong thread here.
Alternative BTTS - Value Method.
- Thread starter Delboy99
- Start date
Sputnik2012
Yearling
I have a question about the selection, do you only referring to odds and not form?
For example, checking if the home team has scored at least seven out of ten previous matches and conceded at least seven.
Same for the away team.
This should indicate the two teams' strengths in scoring and also don't having the strongest defence.
Also, indicate an even performance between both teams.
Cheers
For example, checking if the home team has scored at least seven out of ten previous matches and conceded at least seven.
Same for the away team.
This should indicate the two teams' strengths in scoring and also don't having the strongest defence.
Also, indicate an even performance between both teams.
Cheers
Delboy99
Sire
.....thanks for the interest. If you look at post number 990 and 991 you will see that stats are now considered a vital asset as a selection tool whereas in the early days some two and a half years ago , they were not considered. Will be returning this in the near future. Thanks.
Delboy99
Sire
...... well a nice winning start to this revised system which I first started some two and a half years ago. Inter won this Italian encounter by 3-0 and the over 2.50 goals was the winner this time around. So on paper £20.40 returned - £5.00 loss on 1-1 draw = £15.40 - Stake on Over 2.50 goals = £10.00 ending in Profit = £5.40. So a decent enough start and it encourages one to continue the journey. Back later.....OK having a slow return to this, may not be every day but will post when I feel the selection is in with a chance. Paper trial to commence with.
A C MILAN v INTER :-
Back 1-1 @ 7.00 £5
Back Over 2.50 goals @ 2.04 £10.
Let's see how it goes!
Delboy99
Sire
..... two matches looked at today. The Saints match was just a miss when Ward Prowse;s goal was disallowed which would have yielded a 1-1 score. As it was Villa won 1-0 so a loss in that one of £15. The other Championship match came in at 1-1 so +£36 - £10 - £5 = =£21. So on the day profit = £6. Running Total + £11.40 so going OK at the moment...... trying two games for Saturday:-
Southampton T V Aston Villa Over 2.50 goals = £10 @ 2.10 and 1-1 = £5 @ 7.2
QPR V Swansea C Over 2.50 goals = £10 @ 2.10 and 1-1 = £5 @ 7.2
Let's see how these go.
Delboy99
Sire
.... two games produced one winner and one loser.Trying two more for Monday:-
Maccabi Tel Aviv v Maccabi Haifa Back £5 @ odds 1-1 7.2 Back £10 Over- 2.50 goals odds 2.10
Konyaspor v Ankaragucu Back £5 @ odds 1-1 7.4 Back £10 Over 2.50 goals odds 2.02
Maccabi won 3-0 Return £21 less £10 = £11Profit
Konyaspor 0-1 Return £0 less £15 = £11-15 = £-4 Running Total £11.40 - 4.00 = £7.40.
Delboy99
Sire
..... both games ended 2-0 which seems to be the case the majority of times. So I am trying Under 2.50 goals instead of Over 2.50 goals to see how that pans out.
Sputnik2012
Yearling
Hello ... How about sticking to the method and start using stats/form ... Problem is to obvious parameters...
Here is what i would do...
First i want a strong indication that both team is scoring and also let goals go in.
A tendency for strong scoring and with average defence
So previous 10 home games should have made at least one goal previous seven matches
And also the opponent have scored at least seven
Same for away previous 10
Then you maybe want at least 70 % of previous 10 home matches over 1,5 goals
Same for Away previous 10
Now you might want 50% for both Home and away previous 10 scoring over 2,5 goals
That is 10 of 20
This should give some indications of scoring teams
Maybe the filter is to strong for odds over 2,5 at 2,00 or higher and 1-1 with odds at 7 or higher
Here is what i would do...
First i want a strong indication that both team is scoring and also let goals go in.
A tendency for strong scoring and with average defence
So previous 10 home games should have made at least one goal previous seven matches
And also the opponent have scored at least seven
Same for away previous 10
Then you maybe want at least 70 % of previous 10 home matches over 1,5 goals
Same for Away previous 10
Now you might want 50% for both Home and away previous 10 scoring over 2,5 goals
That is 10 of 20
This should give some indications of scoring teams
Maybe the filter is to strong for odds over 2,5 at 2,00 or higher and 1-1 with odds at 7 or higher
Delboy99
Sire
…. I already use stats and up to now since my return, the indications are that teams don’t seem to be scoring as many, therefore my decision to give the under 2.5 goals a paper run to see if things turn out any better. After all I have enough experience to see these things for what they really are as I have been at this for some time overall looking for improvements along the way.
Sputnik2012
Yearling
Ok i understand ... Hope all goes well with the other approach....
Cheers
Cheers
Delboy99
Sire
..... just missed a full house tonight one winner and one loser - just!
Werder Bremen 1-2 Lost both bets £15
Freiburg 1-1 Return £37 - stake £5 = +£32 Under 2.50 goals return £20.5 - stake £10 = +£10.5 Total £42.50 - £15 = +£37.50 new project.
Mezybopple
Newbie
That would probably work quite well in certain leagues right now..... just missed a full house tonight one winner and one loser - just!
Werder Bremen 1-2 Lost both bets £15
Freiburg 1-1 Return £37 - stake £5 = +£32 Under 2.50 goals return £20.5 - stake £10 = +£10.5 Total £42.50 - £15 = +£37.50 new project.
Sputnik2012
Yearling
Hello, Delboy99 I got my hands on the original and find the selection procedure a little fuzzy.
If I understand it correctly he suggests checking the last six previous home/away.
My understanding is to check that 50% or above for both team scoring.
And the last six previous H2H has 50% or above for both team scoring.
I change that to the previous ten matches with 50% or above for both team scoring.
And the last six previous H2H has 50% or above for both team scoring.
So my question is if that is how you understand the BTTS document or if have i misunderstood some parts of the selection procedure.
If you don't want to discuss or talk about it in public could you send me a private message?
The other parts are clear with 7,0 or above for 1-1 and 1,90/2,10 for O2,5
Cheers Patrik
If I understand it correctly he suggests checking the last six previous home/away.
My understanding is to check that 50% or above for both team scoring.
And the last six previous H2H has 50% or above for both team scoring.
I change that to the previous ten matches with 50% or above for both team scoring.
And the last six previous H2H has 50% or above for both team scoring.
So my question is if that is how you understand the BTTS document or if have i misunderstood some parts of the selection procedure.
If you don't want to discuss or talk about it in public could you send me a private message?
The other parts are clear with 7,0 or above for 1-1 and 1,90/2,10 for O2,5
Cheers Patrik
Delboy99
Sire
Hello
S
Sputnik2012 It is now over 3 years since I first looked at this system so naturally I am hazy also at this point in time. If I remember rightly I did as the outlined system demanded at that time and that was to choose two equal odds teams as near to possible and not bother with too much of the stats. I think that I was more concerned about getting decent odds for the outlined procedure. 