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A short thread

hedgehog

Mare
This will be a short thread just trying out an idea

Tomorrow kempton 6.50 uzincso

Lots of course and distance wins, favourite last 3 runs, 3 wins in last 4 runs. Currently favourite. I'd not be surprised if it loses but I wouldn't know why

Good luck and stay well
 

mick

Sire
hedgehog hedgehog two possible answers to your question, he runs here off a 6lbs higher OR ( my numbers say he improved by 4lbs lto ) and he has yet to win in this 0-85 grade. He may well beat both but for an animal currently priced as low as 6/4 in an 11 run Hcap i would say good enough reasons to swerve. Having said that i cannot find an alternative to take him on so for myself its a race BLA : Best Left Alone.

An additional thought : In this instance fair dues the trainer who has done really well with this 5yo but in general i neither like nor trust him, and even allowing for the fact that this 5k prize is worth having i suspect that sometimes horses will be beaten because there price is to short. !
 
Last edited:

newcomer

Filly
I've taken a chance on Cityzen Serg in this race. Not sure if the trainer is just planning a few days out before returning to Wolverhampton on a lower mark, but on recent RPRs he's matched with these, plum draw, decent enough jockey here, and I don't think the slight change in trip will be a problem. I wouldn't be backing him at single figures, but if the favourite is just a bit vulnerable now, he might be one.
 

brian

Yearling
you made a couple of valid points mick ,
trading at 4.6 (9:30) makes me think that there is a bit of value to be had.
strangely enough my figures give him a 4lb pull over the next best (lequinto)
and 6lb over lexington force.
but they're not machines.
 

hedgehog

Mare
Thanks gentlemen, I just got lucky and didn't get bog so mixed feelings.

Fakenham 4.05 floating rock

Last 3 runs 2 wins and a 9th in a 17 runner race. All those runs favourite. Not favourite now joint 3rd favourite but only 1pt away from the favourite shantung.. I've been premature and bet at 11/2 with a boost. I think the negatives are it has won over further (18/19/20f) and may want further and is 119 OR and best win is 114 OR. I've allowed 3pts extra for them so 11/2 is okay.

It's last 3 runs, if I remember right, it has gone in in odds.

The idea is simple, I just look for horses with market support that justifies it

Good luck tomorrow and stay well
 

hedgehog

Mare
Two races today though I'm not good on Saturdays

Kempton 3.15 my way

Favourite on all of last 3 runs with 5/3/1 the finishing positions. Lto there is form support with the 2nd being a lto winner . Has a cd win and has won a c3. Negatives are only a 10% strike rate and 9lbs above last winning OR

Wolverhampton 6.00 ledham/ power over me

Ledham has won at the course and is on its last winning OR. Favourite once 3 races back when it won though subsequently not out of the first 3. Has a 29% strike rate and won a c3. Negatives distance probably too short but if they go fast may capitalise. Long time off course. Form support from lto2 race. The odds are probably overgenerous

Power over me has a cd win and won a c4, 50% strike rate. Has been favourit twice in the last 3 runs and also won twice in that group. Form support again from lto2 race. Negatives rising in class and has to improve as last winning OR 80 and now has 85 .

If any of the above 3 win I'm happy and I did get bog though I'm not expecting any drifts

Good luck and stay well
 

hedgehog

Mare
Thanks Sean Sean much appreciated

Only winner from yesterday power over me 16/5

Today curragh 4.10 teed up/ layfayette

Teed up favourite last 3 runs with finishing positions 1/2/1. Last winning OR 87 now 90, has distance win and 3 wins on going soft or worse. Negatives I can't find form support in last 2 runs

Layfayette favourite twice in last 3 runs with positions 1/2/2 last winning OR 84 now 90, has a win on soft or worse. Can find form support in lto2 race. Negatives has won over further so trip may be too short

Good luck today and stay well
 
Well done yesterday hedgehog hedgehog

I haven’t had a bet, but Layfayette, along with Star of Cashel, showed up well on some of my trends. I don’t think having won over further is a problem. I often find it a help in these big field handicaps if a horse is proven to stay a little bit further than actual distance of the race, as these races are run at a true pace which puts more emphasis on stamina. 8 of the last 24 winners of this had won at up to 9-10 furlongs despite only making up 22% of the runners.

Good luck with your bets today.
 
well done with Lafayette hedgehog hedgehog , his stamina came in handy.

My two finished 1st & 4th, but it’s easy when I don’t put any money on them lol. I did have some loose change on reverse forecast and for a few seconds it looked that it might come in but not to be.
 
Well done hedgehog hedgehog a good result in a difficult race. F Frontrunner your above stamina stat made for an interesting read. :clap:
Thanks mick mick, I first spotted it few years ago when looking at trends for Ayr Gold Cup that a lot of winners came from those that were able to stay 7 furlongs. I guess in a sprint race it is even more important as they will running even faster. It has helped me shortlist horses for that race quite successfully by ignoring those that barely stay 6f.
 

Sandhog

Filly
"They" say 7 furlongs is one of the hardest tests of all, for horses, so I found your stats very interesting, F Frontrunner . I guess it might be like what was called the "440" in running at school ( 2furlongs I guess). Kind of between a sprint and a distance type of race.

I noticed kids who were good at this were those who were pretty good all-rounders at all sports: mesomorphs who had stamina on top of strength.
A rare breed.

And, while I'm still on about 7f, one jockey I follow, JP Spencer, seems to be not bad at this trip, especially when he's at his lowest weight.
 
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