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A short thread

hedgehog

Mare
Thanks gentlemen, very much appreciated.

F Frontrunner I'll remember that stat as it is very useful.

Layfayette wins 8/1. I'm pleased by that but I take more pleasure because I swerved the 3.17 when the horse's I looked at had shockingly poor form.

Tomorrow Kelso 4.10 Mr whipped

Favourite twice in the last 3 runs and when it had double figure odds was in a G1 Nov chase when with Nicky Henderson . Finishing positions 3/1/4. Has won OR 145 now 142 and a 3lb claimer. Won c2 and c1. 50% strike rate. Has form support in lto and lto2 races. Negative off track a very long time but if this horse has retained its ability it should stomp all over this field

Good luck tomorrow and stay well
 

hedgehog

Mare
Mr whipped nr

Tomorrow Taunton 4.15 hidden charmer - not sure

Not favourite in last 3 runs but has been 5/2, positions 2/4/3. No form support I like in last 2 races. Highest winning OR 107 last 105 now 111 so has to improve. Both wins on good going. Best work lto at end of race but given too much to do at 23f. Has tried the course unsuccessfully. Lto was sandwiched between 2 lto winners both 108 OR when 110. This is practically all iffy facts. When I looked at this race I wrote down SWERVED in big letters.

Good luck tomorrow and stay well

How come a c4 has a total prize fund of 8k?
 

hedgehog

Mare
Glad I swerved hidden charmer, went favourite and pu.

Tomorrow Musselburgh 3.40 ratfacemcdougall

Been favourite once in last 3 runs with finishing positions 1/pu/1. The pu was on heavy and the last win 18/1 26f soft. That in itself is strange 18/1 when it had won at the distance, on the going and in the class. That last race has form support. Highest winning mark 120 last winning mark 117 now 122 with a 3lb claimer. No need to improve. Has a CD win. Won 22/24/26f. Won G and S so it's G at the moment but will rain tomorrow so going should be okay as long as it doesn't end up heavy. Hurdle strike rate 38%. Already seems to be drifting in in the odds. Definitely will be betting!

Good luck today and stay well
 

hedgehog

Mare
Ratfacemcdougall wins 16/5f. Being greedy I could have had the 9/2 plus boost by betting the night before. I never know when to bet for the best

Today 3.10 Doncaster the Lincoln

Haqeeqy been favourite once in last 3 runs which it converted to a win, finishing positions 1/10/1 has form support from lto2 race. Has won a c2, all 3 wins over 7f on going gf to gs. Last winning mark 92 now has 100 with a 7lb claim. Strike rate 60%

Danyah been favourite in all last 3 runs one of which it converted to a win, finishing positions 3/3/1, has form support from lto2 race were the first 3 home were all nto winners. Has won a c2, wins over 6/7/8f on hvy, gs and g. Last winning mark 93 now 98, has CD win and 43% strike rate.

I've prematurely bet both with boosts but missed the bog. If either win I'm happy but I have a personal favourite in danyah.

Good luck today and stay well
 

hedgehog

Mare
Thanks Sean Sean and F Frontrunner , very much appreciated. Just getting lucky but it is still nice to have a winner

Haqeeqy wins 9/2, nice drift

Today Carlisle 3.30 adders cross

Been favourite once in last 3 runs which it converted to a win, finishing positions 4/1/1. Highest winning mark 125 last winning mark 114 now 118 so no need for improvement. Won 16/17/20/21f on going hvy to good. Today it's soft which AC has 5/14 on 36%, chase strike rate 32%, has won c4 to c2. Had to look hard for form support but found it which helped explain the last 2 wins. Has won on the course also at the distance. Having to root about for form support is a negative and otherwise the horse is well within its comfort zone. I have bet but the horse has started to drift out.

Good luck today and stay well
 

hedgehog

Mare
Ardera cross loses. 22/1 winner of the race that is now 4/5 at the course so not a surprise.

Tomorrow Stratford 3.50 midnightreferendum

Not been favourite in last 3 races but 7-2/5-1/3-1 for finishes 2/3/3 all in c1s. The trainer obviously had aspirations for this horse as it has never before been in a HC ch
Last winning mark 122 now 133 so needs to improve on the previous win but I think the class drop from c1 to c3 should mean no improvement necessary. Won 3 times at 19f and c4s. Chase trike rate 20% . Never won rh or at the trip but 60% place rate rh and 67% place rate at the distance 2m4f to 2m7f. Has won good thru to soft and has 75% place rate on good.

This horse has been highly tried and is now being given an easier task to get a win in conditions it doesn't seem to relish but actually does. A shrewd bit of placement. I will get this horse.

Good luck and stay well
 

hedgehog

Mare
Midnightreferendum placed which I suppose is what my stats showed it would

Tomorrow Musselburgh 3.35 Nate the great

Been favourite once in last 3 runs which it converted to a win. Finishing positions 2/3/1. Highest winning mark 100 but in a non handicap, last winning mark 92 now 95 with a 5lb claim so no improvement necessary. Strike rate 18%, which proves to 25% in handicaps. Has a course win and lto won over 17f so has stamina in abundance. With 14 runners this will not turn into a final 2f sprint. Has won a c2 HC and has the same jockey as last win with a 14% strike rate, the trainer has a 25% strike rate both over the last 21 days. Sort of has form support from lto2 race. The real key to this horse is the handedness. Has 17 runs and 3 wins overall but right handed it's 2 wins 3 places from 5 runs which is a 40% strike rate. I will be betting this horse.

Good luck tomorrow and stay well
 

hedgehog

Mare
Today Musselburgh 3.00 tarboosh

Has not been favourite in last 3 runs but converted an 8/1 into a win. Finishing positions 3/5/1. Lto won a c1 and there is form support from that race. Last winning mark 105 in a listed race now 107 so needs to improve. Strike rate 27%. 11 of its 12 wins at 5f , maiden win at 7f. Has a CD win. I think the key to this horse is the going, tried GS 6 times with 4 wins and a place so strike rate 67% .

I've bet tarboosh and Nate the great

Good luck today and stay well
 

hedgehog

Mare
Neither of my 2 even placed. Not a good Saturday.

Tomorrow plumpton 3.26 Diego du charmil

Hasn't been favourite in last 3 runs, finishing positions 3/3/5. Has mainly been running in c1s. Has form support from lto2 race. Last winning mark 150 now 145 with a 7lb claim so no improvement necessary. Has won 16/17f. Strike rate 26%. Left-handed 4wins 2places from 8 runs. Good going/LH/HC 2/0/3 so 67% which is what it will have tomorrow. The negative is the trainer who for a champion trainer is going through a dry spell with limited winners..

I have 2 dangers, natural history which I seriously considered but couldn't find form support and Brendon castle which if I remember right is 3/4 at the course.

Good luck today and stay well
 

hedgehog

Mare
Diego du charmil wins 11/8f, natural history was a non runner

Tomorrow fairyhouse 5.00( Irish national) latest exhibition/home by the Lee

LE favourite once in last 3 runs, finishing positions 2/2/2. Has form support lto and lto2 races. Strike rate 45%.won 16/19/20/22/23f, yielding 2 wins from 2 runs. Never won a handicap as went down the conditions path. Now mark 153 so no idea if it needs to improve.

HBTL never been favourite in last 3 runs but odds dropping and converted a 5/1 to a win. Finishing positions 3/on/1. Form support from lto and lto2 races.won 16/17/20/22f. Strike rate 55%. Yielding 1/0/2. Highest winning mark same as last 139 now 149 so needs to improve.

Dangers coko beach which has form support but yielding 1/3/6 which is lower than its strike rate of 20%. Also off you go but no form support and yielding 0/1/1 . Strike rate 25%.

I'll bet my pair tomorrow

Good luck tomorrow and stay well
 

hedgehog

Mare
Thanks Sean Sean and footysystems footysystems , much appreciated

Irish national my horse's did nothing much

Today lingfield 2.40 classical wave

Not been favourite in last couple of runs but has won both, last winning mark 75 now 84, has CDG win. Has form support from last 2 races. Both wins on std/lh..

I considered secret victory but no form support last 2 races

I swerved the grand national as I can't get a consensus

Good luck today and stay well
 

hedgehog

Mare
Classical wave didn't win.

Today
Curragh 4.15 dance Jupiter/ raise you

The thoughts are as before with dance Jupiter having converted a favourite so into a win. Both have form support and both have won over 10f which in this cavalry charge will be a positive. Of the 2 I prefer DJ but there is no need to try to separate them at the odds available.

Nottingham 6.15 Jean baptiste swerved
Your have thought this horse would be a selection. Trainer jockey combo 40% in last 21 days, has won a novice with 82 OR and has the same today plus a 5lb claim. Has a 50% place rate and ran well on the going lto being 2nd by 0.5L. I can't find form support for this horse so reluctantly swerved

Good luck today and stay well
 
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