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A short thread

hedgehog

Mare
Thanks Sean Sean much appreciated

Tomorrow

I swerved the grand national as I couldn't get consensus so this is my half ars*D attempt at a spring double.

Ayr 3.35 Scottish national sams adventure/soldier of love.

My best option in this race was notachance but it has no form support so swerved. From the next bests, 4 runners, I've picked the two above.

SA has form support, 33% strike rate, won at 33f though on soft, has only won c2s, last win 139 OR now 147 so has to improve. This horse has won twice in the last 3 runs and UR in the other race when 11/4.

SOA has form support, strike rate 36%, won when 9/4, last winning mark 140 now 144, lots of wins on good going though over much shorter, has only won c3s

I've essentially picked one horse for the going and the other for the distance

Good luck tomorrow and stay well
 

hedgehog

Mare
Today Newbury 3.20 spring cup danyeh / raaeq

D favourite twice in last 3 runs converting one to a win, form support, last winning mark 93 now 98 has won 8f good though not further, all wins left handed, strike rate 38%, pick of jim Crowley won c2

R strike rate 50%, form support, last winning mark 97 now 107, won 8f good though not further, all wins right handed, favourite twice in last 3 runs converting one to a win, pick of Dane O'Neill won c3s

Both horse's have the same owner so he is obviously trying for a win today and he is a shrewd owner so that gives me hope. If these horses are backed in a win is much more likely

Good luck and stay well

Edited at 13.26 I'm having a senior moment as the spring mile is run over a straight 1m. How dim am I!
 
Last edited:

hedgehog

Mare
Today ayr 2.25 Tommy Oscar

My best option for this race was Diego du charmil but though the race is well in its comfort zone I can't find form support in last 2 races so a reluctant swerve.

My next bests are Tommy Oscar and thyme white but though thyme white has been running in c1s it hasn't been doing well, it has form support but the odds of its last 2 completed runs are both 28/1. Because of that I'm looking to my other next best.

TO not been favourite in last 3 runs but converted a 2/1 into a win lto, has form support, last winning mark 132 now 138 so needs to improve, strike rate 57%, has won 16/17f, has won a c2, trainer jockey combo 50% in last 21 days, left handed on good going 4 places from 4 runs of which there were a couple of 2nds and a couple of 3rds so conditions not against. Is lightly raced so improvement possible.

Good luck and stay well
 

hedgehog

Mare
None of my selections won yesterday

Today market rasen 6.00 supakalanistic/really super

Not much time but both have form support

Wealth warning, they are both drifting

Good luck and stay well
 

hedgehog

Mare
Best I got yesterday was a 2nd

Today epson 2.50 victory chime

VC favourite once in last 3 runs which it converted to a win, finishing positions 1/2/3 , strike rate 36%, last winning mark 91 now 98, has many wins over 10f and also a 11f win, CDG win, has form support, trainer jockey combo 2/3 in last 21 days. 2 races back beaten into 2nd by Johnny drama which put a string of wins together and last racing mark of 109, JD was a 90 when it beat VC which was 97, the third was 100. I think there is potentially 9lbs improvement in VC because of that run so an estimated 106 which is higher than the top OR in this race.

VC was 13/2 last night which I think is generous.

Good luck and stay well
 

hedgehog

Mare
Victory chime wins 8/1

Tomorrow Perth 3.00 crixuss escape/Franky du berlais

CE only 1 completed run in last 3 but won, strike rate 31% , last winning mark 130 now 135, has won between 16f and 24f but no further, won 3xC3, has form support. Funny thing about this horse is I thought 130 was it class ceiling but it's more like a distance and quality of opposition limit. This horse struggles above 24f and in c2s which knocks out the recent incomplete runs. The negative is the going as wins on soft and heavy so may be pulled out of the race. That said has a place from 1 run on gs.

FDB favourite once in last 3 races and came 2nd, finishing positions 2/2/1, strike rate 17%, last winning mark 122 now 127, wins from 16f to 22f mainly on good, last winning jockey, trainer jockey combo 2/6 in last 21 days, won a c3, has form support,

FDB is at low odds but I still think selecting both is the safest option

Good luck tomorrow and stay well
 

hedgehog

Mare
Thanks pete pete and F Frontrunner , much appreciated

Neither of my 2 horse's did anything today

Tomorrow Beverley 4.25 Delph crescent

Been favourite twice in last 3 runs converting 1 to a win, finishing positions 1/1/4, strike rate 19%, has form support, highest winning mark 78, last winning mark 75 now 76 so no improvement necessary, has won 8/9/10f on going soft to good to firm and std, has CD win, recently has been in c5s but was in a c4 lto and made favourite. If the 3/1 is still available tomorrow I think that is generous

Good luck and stay well
 

hedgehog

Mare
Delph crescent didn't win

I thought I better have a running total and strike rate

8 wins from 22 races 36%
31 pts out 43.78 pts in 12.78 pts profit

Tomorrow Perth 2.40 tea time on Mars

Never been favourite in last 3 runs, finishing positions 1/4/2, strike rate 20%, last winning mark 110 now 119, won 24f soft but not further and I can't find the form support I like. Not selling this am I?

Lto 2nd by a neck to Samuel Jackson which had a last racing mark of 128, 3rd was Dawson city last winning mark 129 so TTOM should be about 128 so has potential for 9lbs improvement tomorrow. Has run twice on good winning once. The lto race was over a few yards shorter than tomorrow's race. Lto2 over 3m Samuel Jackson raced against TTOM again, SJ came 2nd and TTOM was a few lengths back in 3rd so from lto2 to lto TTOM improved for the for the increase in distance. Have I sold it now?

TTOM is currently 8/1 which is high as there is no Samuel Jackson in this race

Good luck and stay well
 

hedgehog

Mare
Tea time on Mars did nothing

8/23 races won 11.78pts profit

Today sandown 3.40 el presente/potterman

EP has been favourite once in last 3 runs which it converted to a win, finishing positions 1/1/2, last winning mark 142 now 147, won 20f to 25f on good to gf, has won a c1, good or gf right-handed 5 wins 3 places 10 runners, trainer jockey combo 3 for 17 in last 21 days, strike rate 33%, has form support

P not been favourite in last 3 runs, finishing positions 2/2/ur , highest winning mark 138, last winning mark 137 now 147, won 16f to 24f on good, has won a c2, good or gf right-handed 3 wins 1 place 7 runs, trainer jockey combo 1 win 17 runs in last 21 days, strike rate 35%, has form support,

Good luck today and stay well
 

pete

Dam
Thanks @
pete
pete but not to be

can't win 'em all hedgehog hedgehog , the smaller prices always scare me away.
 

hedgehog

Mare
Thanks pete pete and Sean Sean much appreciated

Today navan 2.50 colfer Kay
4.10 wetherby roundhay park

I'll probably be stomped on in the 2.50 by finest and 4.10 by many a star but I'm taking them on with horse's that have done better before. CK has beaten iva batt 7L at level weights so I'm not frightened of that horse, has won what would be a c2 nursery and has never tried good so not a negative. CF like IB and F is getting 10lbs wfa

RP has won c2, c3 and 2 c4, it's well inside it's comfort zone and has a 3lb claim.

Both my selections have form support and have been favourite in last 3 runs

That's a precise of my normal thinking

Good luck today and stay well
 

hedgehog

Mare
Neither of my horse's did anything

Today Thirsk 2.40 astro king/on a session

I looked a my shortlist of nugget and the 2 selections. Nugget was beaten by AK 1.8L when giving AK 3lbs. Now giving 2lbs and nugget has never tried left-handed but has form support, reluctantly swerved.

Astro king is as I'd normally work so a selection

On a session has form support, has to improve 3lbs which is do able. The thing that sold me on this horse is the lto run. Lto winner born to be alive OR 102, 2nd OAS 0.5L back, 3rd mission boy 99 OR so I'd expect OAS to be about 100 Or but it was 91, it's 92 OR today so 8lbs possibly in hand.

Good luck and stay well
 

hedgehog

Mare
3rd and 4th

Later Doncaster 6.35 edraak/aberama gold reverse forecast

This is a difficult race for me as I think edraak has 9lbs in hand going by the lto2 race and aberama gold is 4lbs in hand again going by the lto2 race. If I bet edraak aberama gold may win and vice versa, if I bet both the return could be small. I've tried reverse forecasts before with mixed results and the result isn't guaranteed as the third on my shortlist magical spirit has placed twice out of 3 runs on GF and has won after a break before. All have form support bar MS.

Scores so far 9/26 and 19.78pts

Good luck and stay well
 
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