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3 Year Olds

markfinn

markfinn

Sire
Not a fan and their inclusion in, ruin the race's that I prefer to look at - ie - open age handicaps

They come with advantages one being WFA allowance and disadvantages, little form to evaluate and the guessing game of how much can they improve - however they also have a bigger advantage from the bettors in that most will being run to win in order to either secure a stable place or make an eye catching run for potential buyers.

Open to all thoughts how we can use them to our advantage as punter either for win or lay opportunities.
 
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Most 4yr olds will have improved over the year but it might be possible to evaluate todays 3yr olds against what they achieved as 3yr olds (if that makes sense), either way it is a most difficult task that any handicapper will have to deal with when there is little form involved.
From a form reading perspective i enjoy such complications but i do take the point you are making markfinn markfinn in that there are so many different factors to take into consideration.
I'm of the view that the 3yr olds are at a slight advantage by a few pounds but that should never be enough to warrant a bet so plenty more for the punter to think about.
 
They have a definite advantage when you first start to really move into all aged handicaps, gotta find a way of capitalising on this instead of being hindered by it, but I get what your saying when your best laid plan gets beat by one with 3 duck eggs in maidens its infuriating
 
retriever said:
Just thought I'd post the stats regarding 3yo+ Handicaps with regards to the age. I followed a line of thought that the advantage was lessened the lower you are in Class but couldn't show it from stats.

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Probably need to look at distances and tie this to the WFA age scale - even then in all classes favs will have a better SR but thats not necessarily what we are after

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Any advantage gets skewed to longer races as the season proceeds
 

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Outlander said:
They have a definite advantage when you first start to really move into all aged handicaps, gotta find a way of capitalising on this instead of being hindered by it, but I get what your saying when your best laid plan gets beat by one with 3 duck eggs in maidens its infuriating
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TINKER TOY 4.00 donny
A war front colt rated 90, 2 from 2 and bottom of the handicap will catch many eyes today but is he well in ?
Was made to work quite hard to overcome the 7lb penalty beating Lyric Gold over c/d, that's very little to go on imo and so we might need to rely on his sals debut which was fine but again not at all easy to evaluate.

Conclusion......No idea but it does demonstrate what a difficult a job handicappers have to do,
 
tacker said:
Top trainer varian but it's the horse that runs, obviously it can win and your numbers look good but there are doubts enough in the form imo.

Debate is good btw.
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on a quick glance the Hannon horse is the one - but the curse of improvement is ever present - destroys theses races as a betting medium - perhaps it goes against what I have always thought - " Racing is all based on Punting" mick mick will have a view on this
 
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As part of my process I use filters both positive and negative as an aide to making the final call on a horse of interest, perhaps a better description would be preferences because the vast majority are applied in flexible ways but one which is set in stone is that i will not back a 3yo against older horses. When i see the pundits frequently crowing about the WFA " Edge " then i suspect mine is a minority view but this is OK because its my wedge i am risking.

They do win plenty of all aged hcaps and i never ignore them but when i conclude that a 3yo is the likely winner i just swerve the race. It is never wise to generalize about any aspects of form but likewise you do need starting points for opinions and reasons to justify them. I recall when as an 11yo i started senior school at the time i was as big as many of the Lads in the next year up but still felt intimidated for a while and i think simular can occur when a 3yo enters the battlefield of an all aged hcap and i wonder if the WFA allowance always negates this lack of experience factor.?

The positive element is that those at the front of the market are often over bet and as a result if your choice is a more experienced and proven older horse then the prospects of obtaining a value price are increased by the presence of the 3yo hot pot. I have no idea what the all in stats say but do know that plenty of these 3yo hot pots do get turned over so from my perspective............good enough. :)
 
Try to find stat on 3Y lto winner on same distance (10f /12F) now againt older horses fto,then further with less weight or first 3 in betting etc.
cheers
 
markfinn said:
on a quick glance the Hannon horse is the one - but the curse of improvement is ever present - destroys theses races as a betting medium - perhaps it goes against what I have always thought - " Racing is all based on Punting" mick mick will have a view on this
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Hannon horse wins.
 
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